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Tell Me Why Patrick Mahomes is not the Solution!

bigmck said:
Plan A is good, but I don't expect it. We all know the Texans history at drafting QB, they don't do it. Only two of them as high as the Third Round. I think they will go with Savage/Weeden this year and go all in next year.
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If this is our teams plan then it is flawed thinking to me for a couple of reasons.
1. OB has 2 years left on his contract, if we roll with Savage and Weeden chances are our record won't be the greatest so OB won't get an extension (if he will even except one), so now you are tasking your HC with finding a qb and developing him when he doesn't even know if he will see the kids sophomore season.
2. everyone says we are in win now mode, our window is supposedly right now. So why push back taking a qb and developing them another year, when you needed a good young qb yesterday.
 
Sigma said:
you forgot to distinguish between "what they think they will do" and "what they eventually will do"
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TK is covering all the bases. With all the scenarios one of them could possibly happen. All we can do is speculate.

Godfather will most likely draft a TE first. If not a CB. Maybe a Safety. Probably a punter. Or it could be the QB from Podunk U. :trophy:

We don't need no stinkin' O linemen taking up valuable cap space. Gotta follow Clevelands game plan and hoard cap space.

(Hang in there TK. Enjoy your takes.)

:coffee:
 
cuppacoffee said:
TK is covering all the bases. With all the scenarios one of them could possibly happen. All we can do is speculate.

Godfather will most likely draft a TE first. If not a CB. Maybe a Safety. Probably a punter. Or it could be the QB from Podunk U. :trophy:

We don't need no stinkin' O linemen taking up valuable cap space. Gotta follow Clevelands game plan and hoard cap space.

(Hang in there TK. Enjoy your takes.)

:coffee:
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Not drafting a RT first doesn't mean failure. I just don't get all the doom and gloom over the OL. We literally need ONE starter on the OL. A RT! You don't have to use your first round pick to get a quality RT. In fact if you do draft a RT in the first round and pass on an elite player that's more a recipe for failure IMO.
 
mussop said:
Not drafting a RT first doesn't mean failure. I just don't get all the doom and gloom over the OL. We literally need ONE starter on the OL. A RT! You don't have to use your first round pick to get a quality RT. In fact if you do draft a RT in the first round and pass on an elite player that's more a recipe for failure IMO.
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Grading a prospect as an "elite player" is pretty subjective. Consensus "elite" prospects are usually top 10 picks and not 1-25. Sure, over time, players selected this deep into the round, or even other rounds, develope into "elite". Was Brady considered an elite prospect at the time of his draft?

The deeper you go into the draft the less likely you will find an immediate quality starter and the more likely the prospect will need development. We need an immediate starter at RT. It appears we have lost out in free agency. Just as Duane Brown was the last of the quality tackles in his draft, taken at 1-26, there's a good chance that one of the few quality OT's may fall to us at 1-25.
 
mussop said:
Not drafting a RT first doesn't mean failure. I just don't get all the doom and gloom over the OL. We literally need ONE starter on the OL. A RT! You don't have to use your first round pick to get a quality RT. In fact if you do draft a RT in the first round and pass on an elite player that's more a recipe for failure IMO.
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Dallas Cowboys land another first round offensive lineman

Steven Mullenax/FanSided via The Landry Hat Fansided
Jan 4, 2017 at 11:18a ET

It is now being reported that the Dallas Cowboys have agreed to a deal with former first round pick offensive guard Jonathan Cooper.

Whomever first uttered the phrase “the rich get richer” must have been talking about the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. Since 2011, Dallas has devoted three first round draft selections towards their offensive line. As a result, many now consider the Cowboys O-line the most dominate positional group in the entire NFL.

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/dallas-cowboys-land-another-first-round-offensive-lineman-010417

In 2015, Dallas would add a fourth first round level talent to their offensive line when they signed former LSU offensive tackle La’el Collins as likely the highest rated undrafted free agent in NFL history.

On Wednesday, the Cowboys added yet another first round offensive lineman to their roster to add some depth for their upcoming playoff run…and possibly beyond. After working out for Dallas on Tuesday, free agent guard Jonathan Cooper agreed to terms with the Cowboys according to ESPN.com.

“The Dallas Cowboys have agreed to a deal with guard Jonathan Cooper, who worked out for the team Tuesday, that will last through the playoffs, according to sources,” reporter ESPN beat reporter Todd Archer. “He will be an unrestricted free agent in March and could net the Cowboys a compensatory pick in 2018.”


Seemed to work out well for Jerrruh's boys.

:coffee:
 
cuppacoffee said:
Dallas Cowboys land another first round offensive lineman

Steven Mullenax/FanSided via The Landry Hat Fansided
Jan 4, 2017 at 11:18a ET

It is now being reported that the Dallas Cowboys have agreed to a deal with former first round pick offensive guard Jonathan Cooper.

Whomever first uttered the phrase “the rich get richer” must have been talking about the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. Since 2011, Dallas has devoted three first round draft selections towards their offensive line. As a result, many now consider the Cowboys O-line the most dominate positional group in the entire NFL.

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/dallas-cowboys-land-another-first-round-offensive-lineman-010417

In 2015, Dallas would add a fourth first round level talent to their offensive line when they signed former LSU offensive tackle La’el Collins as likely the highest rated undrafted free agent in NFL history.

On Wednesday, the Cowboys added yet another first round offensive lineman to their roster to add some depth for their upcoming playoff run…and possibly beyond. After working out for Dallas on Tuesday, free agent guard Jonathan Cooper agreed to terms with the Cowboys according to ESPN.com.

“The Dallas Cowboys have agreed to a deal with guard Jonathan Cooper, who worked out for the team Tuesday, that will last through the playoffs, according to sources,” reporter ESPN beat reporter Todd Archer. “He will be an unrestricted free agent in March and could net the Cowboys a compensatory pick in 2018.”


Seemed to work out well for Jerrruh's boys.

:coffee:
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And who was the Dallas Cowboys starting right tackle last year and where was he drafted?
 
Number19 said:
The deeper you go into the draft the less likely you will find an immediate quality starter and the more likely the prospect will need development. We need an immediate starter at RT. It appears we have lost out in free agency. Just as Duane Brown was the last of the quality tackles in his draft, taken at 1-26, there's a good chance that one of the few quality OT's may fall to us at 1-25.
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Brown was drafted to be our LT. Winston & Newton were drafted to be our RT. Winston starting day 1. Newton as soon as Winston was allowed to leave.
 
cuppacoffee said:
Dallas Cowboys land another first round offensive lineman

Steven Mullenax/FanSided via The Landry Hat Fansided
Jan 4, 2017 at 11:18a ET

It is now being reported that the Dallas Cowboys have agreed to a deal with former first round pick offensive guard Jonathan Cooper.

Whomever first uttered the phrase “the rich get richer” must have been talking about the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. Since 2011, Dallas has devoted three first round draft selections towards their offensive line. As a result, many now consider the Cowboys O-line the most dominate positional group in the entire NFL.

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/dallas-cowboys-land-another-first-round-offensive-lineman-010417

In 2015, Dallas would add a fourth first round level talent to their offensive line when they signed former LSU offensive tackle La’el Collins as likely the highest rated undrafted free agent in NFL history.

On Wednesday, the Cowboys added yet another first round offensive lineman to their roster to add some depth for their upcoming playoff run…and possibly beyond. After working out for Dallas on Tuesday, free agent guard Jonathan Cooper agreed to terms with the Cowboys according to ESPN.com.

“The Dallas Cowboys have agreed to a deal with guard Jonathan Cooper, who worked out for the team Tuesday, that will last through the playoffs, according to sources,” reporter ESPN beat reporter Todd Archer. “He will be an unrestricted free agent in March and could net the Cowboys a compensatory pick in 2018.”


Seemed to work out well for Jerrruh's boys.

:coffee:
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You say this because they've won almost as many playoff games as the Jags in the last 20 years?
 
mussop said:
And who was the Dallas Cowboys starting right tackle last year and where was he drafted?
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Free and I'm going to guess late in the draft or UDFA. BTW, he's retiring.

Having all of that talent around him certainly doesn't hurt.
 
mussop said:
And who was the Dallas Cowboys starting right tackle last year and where was he drafted?
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Free and I'm going to guess late in the draft or UDFA. BTW, he's retiring.

Having all of that talent around him certainly doesn't hurt.

Most likely whoever they draft at RT there will be a large learning curve and he will need help from a TE/RB a lot of time in passing situations. Like the Tacks did with Conklin last yr. Supernauw was a big part of their pass pro game.
 
thunderkyss said:
Not that I recall... but if I did, what point are you proving?
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I didn't understand why you discredited something of legitimate value for Dallas because of their lack of playoff success ...

... all the while treating a similarly playoff weary team with some kind of accomplished regard ...
thunderkyss said:
If we beat New England, Kansas City, & Pittsburgh next season, I could live with 9-7
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Eric Winston 3rd Round Pick. There are 3-4 Offensive lineman who could be considered to have a 1st Round Grade. Lamp, Ramczyk, Bolles and Robinson. Lamp is a beast but too short to play tackle, but wouldn't be a reach at 25, although he wouldn't fill the need for a RT. Robinson isn't athletic enough to play LT and probably is a better fit at guard. Bolles is super athletic but he is older 25 and needs to strengthen up some but he could eventually play left. Ramczyk is probably the most complete prospect and can be an LT in the future but he is coming off hip surgery. So if Bolles/Ramczyk are gone and it comes down to Robinson who doesnt project to the left side, its not a bad move to go with a CB/S/EDGE or even a TE/WR/RB if you don't like the Qb's left, those positions are bountiful and there most likely will be some better pro ready prospects @25, when history has shown you can definitely find an RT in the next two rounds.
 
mussop said:
And who was the Dallas Cowboys starting right tackle last year and where was he drafted?
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But that is what's supposed to happen, a mid rounder turns into a solid long term player. When Free was not surrounded by really good players, his being an average RT stuck out greatly, but worked fine with players better than him.

Anyway, it took the Cowboys like 4 or 5 drafts to build that line. Pretty sure they did so at the cost of not taking a position of greater 'need" in a couple of years.
 
My thought has been draft a OT first round to start game 1 who is able to shift to left as soon as Brown goes, sooner rather than later IMO due to health. I am beginning to consider getting a 3rd round guy to play RT by half season letting Clark as much as I want him gone to begin and play until beaten by the pick. I think many agree that Clark can be avg for a few games and not get QB killed. This new thought would hope that (a) D Brown will be able to play 2018 (b) and/or we can draft in 2018 a LT that can start 2018 if no Brown or replace him in 2019.

I also think our course may be to start Savage and draft a trainee later rounds. I can also see going QB 1st round next off season whether Savage successful or not. If good, we give TS his $ in reasonable deal and have the '18 pick learn. If TS not the guy, we go with the pick and move on from TS. We just better hope we get a solid QB in 2018.
 
Mollywhopper said:
I didn't understand why you discredited something of legitimate value for Dallas because of their lack of playoff success ...

... all the while treating a similarly playoff weary team with some kind of accomplished regard ...
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I guess we define legitimate value differently. The first round OL picks, best OL in the league, Tony Romo, Demarco Murray, Ezekiel Elliot, Dak Prescott.... amounts to zip.

We play KC in 2017. Beating them (along with New England & Pittsburgh) will help us get to the playoffs especially if we only go 9-7. They most likely will be in the wild card race if it comes down to it. That's why I included them. I'd have included Oakland if we were playing them. & I don't have a high opinion of Oakland.
 
badboy said:
My thought has been draft a OT first round to start game 1 who is able to shift to left as soon as Brown goes, sooner rather than later IMO due to health. I am beginning to consider getting a 3rd round guy to play RT by half season letting Clark as much as I want him gone to begin and play until beaten by the pick. I think many agree that Clark can be avg for a few games and not get QB killed. This new thought would hope that (a) D Brown will be able to play 2018 (b) and/or we can draft in 2018 a LT that can start 2018 if no Brown or replace him in 2019.

I also think our course may be to start Savage and draft a trainee later rounds. I can also see going QB 1st round next off season whether Savage successful or not. If good, we give TS his $ in reasonable deal and have the '18 pick learn. If TS not the guy, we go with the pick and move on from TS. We just better hope we get a solid QB in 2018.
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If your top rated QB and OT are on the board at 25 which would you take?

I say QB since it's harder for us to find a decent QB than it has been to find an OT. Plus you can always help and hide a tackles weakness. But if Brown goes down, we're screwed in a major way.
 
PapaL said:
If your top rated QB and OT are on the board at 25 which would you take?

I say QB since it's harder for us to find a decent QB than it has been to find an OT. Plus you can always help and hide a tackles weakness. But if Brown goes down, we're screwed in a major way.
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QB, because Duane Brown looks to be in good form & we can get a RT later in the draft.
 
I would also go QB and if we cover everything we need in this draft I wouldn't be surprised if in 2018 and 2019 draft we go OT back to back in the first round.
 
PapaL said:
If your top rated QB and OT are on the board at 25 which would you take?

I say QB since it's harder for us to find a decent QB than it has been to find an OT. Plus you can always help and hide a tackles weakness. But if Brown goes down, we're screwed in a major way.
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This is my conundrum as I too agree QB is top choice. Bolles is an OT I want at #25 as I think he can play both sides; killing 2 bird in my hand (or something)by resolving a dire need position (RT) now and guaranteeing quality replacement for DB's exit. I disagree with TK and others on how good DB looked this season considering some of his opponents. Of course I was glad he played as even at 50% he was better than what we had, which is an issue in itself. CnnnD has repeatedly offered medical opinion on DB's future health (as well as Cushing's and Watt's) & it has not been promising. My mock draft was set to resolved this now and then wait for tragedy to hit when these guys go. Oh that includes Clowney. The concern I have PapaL is that the QB's and OT available offer IMO only Bolles as being guy who could play either side game 1. I am open to guys like Davenport & possible Skipper in later rounds. I would prob add Antonio Garcia and Storm Norton but not as sure as both prob need a season to develop..and that is where I am now..do we get a RT like Skipper or Dion Dawkins to resolve RT and worry about LT high 2018? I think they could allow a Davenport or Garcia to develop to go LT & even better if DB can hold thru 2018. It is a dice throw but hey (as Casserly said) Texans have done that.

I am not excited about any QB now & would go strong after Mason Rudolph or Luke Falk 2018. I disagree with those clamoring about how deep that position will be then. I've been a Savage guy since drafted & am ready to see him succeed or fail.
 
PapaL said:
I just posted up Kipers 3.0 draft and at 25 he has us taking Robinson. Mahomes was available but not drafted in the 1st.
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I'm concerned that Robinson will be a Newton type right tackle and #25 too high for him as I don't see him replace either OG game 1.
 
badboy said:
I'm concerned that Robinson will be a Newton type right tackle and #25 too high for him as I don't see him replace either OG game 1.
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I agree I like Bolles, Its Bolles/Ramczyk or bust for 1st round O-linemen saw this on rotoworld on Robinson so he might not be on the board. Quite possible all three are gone.

Cam Robinson - T - Crimson Tide
The Ravens rank Alabama's Cam Robinson as the No. 1 OT on their board and are considering drafting him with their first-round pick, according to Walter Football's Charlie Campbell.

Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome has long loved Alabama prospects, and after losing starting right tackle Ricky Wagner to the Detroit Lions, he's in the market for a bookend across from left tackle of the future Ronnie Stanley. Newsome and company reportedly prefer Robinson to Wisconsin's Ryan Ramczyk and Utah's Garett Bolles.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
But that is what's supposed to happen, a mid rounder turns into a solid long term player. When Free was not surrounded by really good players, his being an average RT stuck out greatly, but worked fine with players better than him.

Anyway, it took the Cowboys like 4 or 5 drafts to build that line. Pretty sure they did so at the cost of not taking a position of greater 'need" in a couple of years.
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Brown 1st round
Xfilo 2nd round
Martin 2nd round
Allen FA 2nd round.

There, that's a lot of talent to help out our day 2 or 3 drafted RT.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
But that is what's supposed to happen, a mid rounder turns into a solid long term player. When Free was not surrounded by really good players, his being an average RT stuck out greatly, but worked fine with players better than him.

Anyway, it took the Cowboys like 4 or 5 drafts to build that line. Pretty sure they did so at the cost of not taking a position of greater 'need" in a couple of years.
Click to expand...
Brown 1st round
Xfilo 2nd round
Martin 2nd round
Allen FA 2nd round.

There, that's a lot of talent to help out our day 2 or 3 drafted RT.
 
badboy said:
I am not excited about any QB now & would go strong after Mason Rudolph or Luke Falk 2018.

I've been a Savage guy since drafted & am ready to see him succeed or fail.
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This changes everything. If you're not excited about any QB in this draft & believe Savage is a good prospect ready to take the next step... the QB's in this draft would have to grade very high.

But the question was if "your" QB & "your" RT was there... what would you do?

I doubt it, but for all we know, Lamm is the Texans answer to RT for the future. & they'll address OT a lot later than any of us expects.
 
mussop said:
Brown 1st round
Xfilo 2nd round
Martin 2nd round
Allen FA 2nd round.

There, that's a lot of talent to help out our day 2 or 3 drafted RT.
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Maybe, but Brown is close to needing a replacement(contract, age, injury) , Martin has long injury history and no snaps, and X'filo has played closer to Free than one of the cowboys Pro-bowl level linemen.

A lot of talent is overstatement, as much as no talent is understatement.

in short, the Texans probably are more than a draft away from having a true quality OL barring some unexpected goodness from either multiple rookies and/or some bargain bin free agents.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Maybe, but Brown is close to needing a replacement(contract, age, injury) , Martin has long injury history and no snaps, and X'filo has played closer to Free than one of the cowboys Pro-bowl level linemen.

A lot of talent is overstatement, as much as no talent is understatement.

in short, the Texans probably are more than a draft away from having a true quality OL barring some unexpected goodness from either multiple rookies and/or some bargain bin free agents.
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So now you're saying that drafting OL high in the draft isn't necessarily a sure fire way to build a great OL???
 
mussop said:
So now you're saying that drafting OL high in the draft isn't necessarily a sure fire way to build a great OL???
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Not sure how you got there from the couple of posts that I made, but there is never a surefire way to do anything in the draft. If a team invests in high draft picks at any position, it is better odds of becoming great than relying on UDFAs or low picks. at the same time, there are good to very players to be found throughout the draft at most positions (except QB even with Brady/Romo), but stating as a fact 4th round will automatically be a 10 year starter is just silliness also. Simple probability, in my mind at least.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Not sure how you got there from the couple of posts that I made, but there is never a surefire way to do anything in the draft. If a team invests in high draft picks at any position, it is better odds of becoming great than relying on UDFAs or low picks. at the same time, there are good to very players to be found throughout the draft at most positions (except QB even with Brady/Romo), but stating as a fact 4th round will automatically be a 10 year starter is just silliness also. Simple probability, in my mind at least.
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If Mahomes and one of the top 3 OT's are there when the Texans are picking, I draft Mahomes and trade back into the 1st for the OT. Filling the 2 biggest holes on the team for the next 10 yrs in one draft.

After all Ricky is good at finding depth players later in the draft and UDFA. He's not so good at finding guys that can play in rds 2-3. Of course I wanted Ricky to give up this yrs 2nd for Nsekhe so whatever I think Ricky should be doing means he will probably be doing the exact opposite.
 
If he is there in the 1st rd take him if not trade down grab another pick and get the O-line right draft Evans in the 2rd an both issue solved.
 
edwardc5637 said:
If he is there in the 1st rd take him if not trade down grab another pick and get the O-line right draft Evans in the 2rd an both issue solved.
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Evans in the 2nd round? I think first time I've heard that
 
Texas Tech's pro day is next Friday on the 31st I think we are gonna see a lot of Texans personnel up there in Lubbock
 
PapaL said:
If your top rated QB and OT are on the board at 25 which would you take?
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Whichever of the two is rated higher on your overall "big board". If your QB is rated higher overall, then you take him. If the OT is the better football player but you take the QB anyway, isn't that a reach?
 
ObsiWan said:
Whichever of the two is rated higher on your overall "big board". If your QB is rated higher overall, then you take him. If the OT is the better football player but you take the QB anyway, isn't that a reach?
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If it were an exact science and you didn't need a QB anymore than you need an OT then I guess yes, it would be a reach. At some point though this ceases to be just measurables and statistics and you have to take a shot because QB's are far more rare than OT's (who aren't common to begin with) and without a good QB there's really only so much you can do. You hit a ceiling that while not impenetrable few get past without the necessary QB play.

If it's important you do sort of reach. I think of it as more of an educated guess though myself. It's long past time to make one.
 
Hervoyel said:
If it were an exact science and you didn't need a QB anymore than you need an OT then I guess yes, it would be a reach. At some point though this ceases to be just measurables and statistics and you have to take a shot because QB's are far more rare than OT's (who aren't common to begin with) and without a good QB there's really only so much you can do. You hit a ceiling that while not impenetrable few get past without the necessary QB play.

If it's important you do sort of reach. I think of it as more of an educated guess though myself. It's long past time to make one.
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Yes, BPA is largely misunderstood. It is not blindly taking the highest rated player be damned. Need and scarcity (both generally and in a particular draft) are significant consideration of who is actually taken at a point.

Both the ideas of "reaching" for a player and a player "dropping" in the draft are nice talking points, but do they really exist?
 
Right, it's not as straightforward as who has the higher graded number and that's that.

Impact to the team, be it through position of value or position of dire need.
Degrees of difference in their grade. A 94 OT vs an 87 isn't quite as drastic as a 97 OT vs an 81 QB , of course.
Remaining quantity of players likely available later on at both positions.

Preaching straight BPA at all costs, and barring all factors, just sounds like tired draftnik bible thumping.
 
Plus what's the drop off? X position goes from 93 in the 1st to 89 in the 2nd while Y position goes from 91 in the 1st to 80 in the 2nd then Y in the 1st and X in the 2nd gets best total talent.

(Putting aside the false accuracy of such grades).
 
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