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Hurricane Ike

GlassHalfFull said:
8:00 Models. Looking better for Houston (and the game), but worse for south Texas.

at200809_model.gif
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This .gif changes as the storm progresses...looks like the path is from CC to Galveston...
 
badboy said:
I think these things historicall have a tendancy to hook to the right and that worries me some.
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It's actually "fade" to the right or more dramatically "slice" to the right, if you're a golpher. "Hooks" are to the left. But as an X-duffer, I've always liked that analogy.
But historically many of these 'Canes have taken a path like a golphers fade. Lets hope this one doesn't behave in such a manner.
 
nunusguy said:
It's actually "fade" to the right or more dramatically "slice" to the right, if you're a golpher. "Hooks" are to the left. But as an X-duffer, I've always liked that analogy.
But historically many of these 'Canes have taken a path like a golphers fade. Lets hope this one doesn't behave in such a manner.
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Maybe Ike is a lefty.
 
swtbound07 said:
okay, don't laugh, but im not entirely sure where galveston (me) is on the map of texas.
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See that little area of water that cuts into the right side of the Texas coast (maybe about 1/4" to the left from the Louisiana border)? That's the Galveston area.
 
Got us right on the dirty side of the hurricane. Should be fun flying back into Houston late Friday night.
 
Señor Stan;995035 said:
This .gif changes as the storm progresses...looks like the path is from CC to Galveston...
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LMAO! I thought I was going nuts. I looked this morning and the paths were south and look at the thread again after lunch and it's like Whoa!...WTF is wrong with me?

Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often. :thinking:
 
HOU-TEX said:
Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often. :thinking:
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Yep. Once it gets over warm waters, storms tend to jog a bit. It's heading towards solid land (US), and certain fronts and pressure systems tend to influence this storm.

So far this storm is anything but predictable. It has moved a bunch the past week.
 
HOU-TEX said:
LMAO! I thought I was going nuts. I looked this morning and the paths were south and look at the thread again after lunch and it's like Whoa!...WTF is wrong with me?

Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often. :thinking:
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I have seen this many changes before, it's because it is so far out, by Thursday morning we should have a very good idea. What worries me is in my recollection these things have a tendacy to jog north.
 
Here's the latest from my guys, as of 2PM CDT .....

Hurricane Ike is about to emerge off the western tip of Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to have preserved much of its inner core as a CAT 1 hurricane with 75-80 mph winds. The storm will be moving over the very warm waters of the Loop Current in the SE Gulf for 24 hours on a northwest trajectory, turn west over the central Gulf on Thursday. Atmospheric wind profiles are very supportive of intensification over the Gulf and we expect Ike to go through a rapid deepening phase and become a major hurricane with CAT 4 winds greater than 140 mph sometime on Thursday. This intensity is just below the max intensity achieved by both Hurricane Katrina and Rita in 2005. The steering current is well defined through Thursday which should track the storm south of the primary energy Production area toward the western Gulf. However, Ike is expected to be a VERY LARGE storm with hurricane force winds extending outward 100 mi with tropical storm force winds all the way to the northern Gulf Coast and across the Production Area on it’s trek across the Gulf.

Model guidance today suggests that the ridge providing the westerly steering current is expected to break down as Ike approaches the western Gulf. As this occurs, the storm is likely to make a sharp right turn. This turn could result in the center of the storm impacting anywhere along the TX coast with an outside chance of impacts along the western LA coast. Given model data today, the NHC should move the official track to the right of the previous advisory and closer to the Houston/Galveston area as a major hurricane. The result will likely be a large scale evacuation of parts of the Texas coastal zone including Galveston starting tomorrow. If model guidance continues to shift toward the Houston/Galveston area, more widespread mandatory evacuation orders will be issued late tomorrow and Thursday. Confidence in landfall location remains low enough that at this point, we are only comfortable with suggesting the middle/upper TX coast as primary threat area (see attachment/below). This includes the Houston/Galveston area.

Gulf Production Threat is increased 40&#37; and <redacted> is highly recommended (for at least the first wave) based on the large nature and expected severity of the storm.

I would recommend <redacted> employees prepare to be “storm ready” in case confidence in the track of the storm continues to trend more in our direction in the coming days. Landfall is expected late Friday night or early Saturday morning so evacuation orders along parts of the TX coast could be given as early as tomorrow morning.

Clearly a higher level of concern regarding this storm and local impacts than yesterday and earlier today. As for energy interests&#8230;can’t rule out a possible impact across the Northwest Gulf, but for the most part it appears to be primarily a shut-in threat. There could be an increased refinery threat if the storm approaches the Upper Texas coast later this week.
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TEXANS84 said:
Yep. Once it gets over warm waters, storms tend to jog a bit. It's heading towards solid land (US), and certain fronts and pressure systems tend to influence this storm.

So far this storm is anything but predictable. It has moved a bunch the past week.
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Hurricanes get their steering from the winds aloft...they have been predicting a High to evolve to steer Ike north for sometime, but they were not to sure if it would manifest before he hits land...looks like they decided where to include it.
:splits:

Us being on the dirty side...no bueno. :gun:
 
Double Barrel said:
Another great site for tracking: www.stormpulse.com
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Nice graffics on that site.

As I suspected the models are trending north. I think the NHC shifts there landfall north somewhat at 4pm, and they will trend slowly up the coast. I still say Matagorda to Galveston, but honestly it wouldn't shock me if it's as far north as the Golden Triangle before all is said and done. Having said that, I'll go out on a limb and say just south of Freeport for landfall. Just a go on the record type guess.

And seriousely here SWT. Keep apprised of the news and local authorties. I am going to be suprised if they don't call for a Galveston evacuation tomorrow or Thu at the latest.
 
Porky said:
Nice graffics on that site.

As I suspected the models are trending north. I think the NHC shifts there landfall north somewhat at 4pm, and they will trend slowly up the coast. I still say Matagorda to Galveston, but honestly it wouldn't shock me if it's as far north as the Golden Triangle before all is said and done. Having said that, I'll go out on a limb and say just south of Freeport for landfall. Just a go on the record type guess.

And seriousely here SWT. Keep apprised of the news and local authorties. I am going to be suprised if they don't call for a Galveston evacuation tomorrow or Thu at the latest.
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im technically texas city...would they evacuate us?
 
Texan_Bill said:
Considering Texas City is basically Galveston Bay - more than likely... Just to help you out a little bit:



Galveston-Houston.gif
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My parents live between Smith Point and Double Bayou, on that map right about where the road shows a couple of bends, that's only about 2 or 3 miles from the bay. That's where I grew up, in the middle of nowhere. I really hope this thing stays away, my dad just got home from the hospital yesterday, he's on home hospice so at least they will make sure he gets out safely.
 
Hardcore Texan said:
My parents live between Smith Point and Double Bayou, on that map right about where the road shows a couple of bends, that's only about 2 or 3 miles from the bay. That's where I grew up, in the middle of nowhere. I really hope this thing stays away, my dad just got home from the hospital yesterday, he's on home hospice so at least they will make sure he gets out safely.
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BTW, have you updated the thread about your dad yet??
 
Tommorrow afternoon will be crucial.....

It will be out in the Gulf and in the warm current and lets see if it goes from a 1 to a 3 by tomorrow at 6:00 PM

It better show down because people on the coast will need the time to board up and get out.
 
i dont think people here in corpus are taking it real serious, but i guess you can include me with those people. i really dont think we are going to get much from it.
 
jaayteetx said:
they better start getting serious, just a funny feeling...
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Hmmm. . I got kind of a bad feeling about it. The UKMET model (the white line) has been the most accurate with this hurricane so far, and it's moving slow, more time for that trough out of the Rockies to grab it and pull it north.

So yeah, I don't think Corpus is going to get hit that bad. But if I lived in Freeport or anywhere near there, think I'd be quaking.
 
Marcus said:
Hmmm. . I got kind of a bad feeling about it. The UKMET model (the white line) has been the most accurate with this hurricane so far, and it's moving slow, more time for that trough out of the Rockies to grab it and pull it north.

So yeah, I don't think Corpus is going to get hit that bad. But if I lived in Freeport or anywhere near there, think I'd be quaking.
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Yup. The ukmet and Euro have been the trendsetters with this storm, and both have it moving in close to Freeport, maybe a bit south of there but close. That is what I have been basing my call of a slightly south of Freeport hit. It's not rocket science, I'm just following the trendsetters. That would be a good 75 miles or so up the coast from the nhc's call. We shall see.
 
The evac orders have started:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hurricane/5993276.html

As the path of Hurricane Ike became clearer, Brazoria County Judge Joe King early today ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal residents and a voluntary evacuation of the rest of the county.

Prison officials also are meeting to decide whether inmates in some units in the county should be moved to facilities farther inland. Several units elsewhere along the Texas coast have begun moving prisoners to inland units as a precaution.

Residents of ZIP code 77541, which includes Freeport and other coastal regions, are subject to a mandatory evacuation. The evacuation for special-needs residents of 77541 began at 10 a.m., according to Steve Rosa, the county's assistant emergency management coordinator.
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Bay City ISD is closed till Monday as well.
 
I was just looking at that on their website, us here in Austin will get some pretty strong winds if it takes that track. And I am supposed to be coming into Houston area Friday, everything is up in the air at this point.
 
Just got a call from relatives in Port Lavaca ...... looks like I will be having company for the weekend.
 
Here's the latest from my folks, as of 12:30PM CDT:

Hurricane Ike continues to get better organized on satellite and is now a borderline CAT 2 hurricane. Latest AF RECON reported 90 mph winds and 957 mb central pressure. We expect the winds will gradually increase to over 100 mph today and CAT 3 intensity tonight. A rapid intensification process is likely to result in Ike reaching CAT 4 and perhaps CAT 5 (briefly) intensity over the central Gulf on an approach to the TX coast late Friday night and early Saturday morning. The latest 12Z model suite has all shifted to the right and as such, we are lowering threat probabilities to the lower TX coast and east of Sabine Pass&#8230;increasing threat probabilities along the middle and upper TX coast. Our highest threat area is from 30 mi south of Matagorda Bay to Freeport, TX. This puts most of the Houston/Galveston on the “dirty” side of the storm (unlike Rita) resulting in heavy rain and very strong winds.

The latest GFDL model presents a particularly dangerous situation with a CAT 4 landfall right into Galveston late Friday night and Saturday morning. The implications of this are VERY significant and I expect NHC will adjust their track and intensity forecasts to be closer to the upper TX coast with landfall as a strong CAT 3 or borderline CAT 4. As a result I expect local emergency management to initiate mandatory evacuations along parts of the Upper Texas Coast including the Galveston area.

From an energy perspective&#8230;hurricane force winds are expected to impact the western Production area, but impacts should be limited to crude/natural gas shut-ins. Gas refineries along the upper TX coast are likely to be shut down and evacuated as a result of expected forecast changes later this afternoon.

With a storm of CAT 4 making landfall in the “Highest Threat” area listed below, winds along the upper TX coast are likely to be sustained at hurricane force with gusts to near 100 mph at Galveston. Sustained winds of 60-70 mph with gusts to 80-90 mph are possible in the Houston metro.

Individuals should rush their storm preparedness procedures to completion and review plans for possible evacuation in the event they are recommended by local media or emergency officials.
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When I was a kid and had no worries, I loved hurricanes, now I hate to even think about them when they form in the Gulf.:headhurts:
 
Brando said:
When I was a kid and had no worries, I loved hurricanes, now I hate to even think about them when they form in the Gulf.:headhurts:
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I still love them. When I was little in Alabama we would get hit constantly by hurricanes. We sat on the porch at my grandmothers house, and when the eye passed over, we would go out and play until it was gone. Those were the days.

Once I become a homeowner my opinion will undoubtedly change, but for now, I just smile.

P.S. - Yay! 4000 posts!
 
TexansLucky13 said:
I still love them. When I was little in Alabama we would get hit constantly by hurricanes. We sat on the porch at my grandmothers house, and when the eye passed over, we would go out and play until it was gone. Those were the days.

Once I become a homeowner my opinion will undoubtedly change, but for now, I just smile.

P.S. - Yay! 4000 posts!
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You and me both!:doot:

It will change when you get older and if you have chidren.:) I remember sleeping through Hurricane Alicia.
 
Brando said:
You and me both!:doot:

It will change when you get older and if you have chidren.:) I remember sleeping through Hurricane Alicia.
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I went out in it. I drove up to the local Del Taco and had a steak and cheese burrito while I watched signs and stuff blow down the street. It was fun.

Now, not so much.
 
Brando said:
You and me both!:doot:

It will change when you get older and if you have chidren.:) I remember sleeping through Hurricane Alicia.
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We both gained a point of Rep Power with our 4000th post. Interesting....

Yep, come to think of it, my sister didn't really like hurricanes. Maybe it's a guy thing.... just the extreme power of it. I don't know. I've seen trees get snapped in half with my own eyes, though, and that was cool. Kinda scary at the same time too.
 
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