Free agency in the NFL is in the rearview mirror for the most part. The NFL Draft is still more than three weeks away. What exactly is there to talk about in the world of sports in general and the NFL in particular?
May I suggest Bill O’Brien?
I think a compelling case can be made that the trade the Texans’ general manager/head coach recently made, sending DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals, is the worst in NFL history. All the television debate shows and sports talk radio shows can feel free to chew on that one for a day or two.
But wait, there’s more.
If you look at the personnel decisions he has made since Brian Gaine was surprisingly fired in June after just 17 months, I believe a strong argument can be made that he is also the worst GM of all time, albeit with a relatively small sample size. That could be a healthy discussion on my podcast or Radio.com show for a few days as well.
I’m not saying he is the worst GM ever or that the Hopkins trade was the worst one on record. I’m just saying that both are absolutely in the discussion. It is not hyperbole or a “hot take,” as so many people want to have in our culture these days. Let’s just examine the facts.
We’ll start on the micro level with the Hopkins trade because it’s a doozy. Hopkins has missed exactly two games in seven seasons. He’s a 27-year-old coming off his third straight All-Pro and Pro Bowl season. He’s also under contract for the next three seasons at $13.3 million per year, which is a steal compared to the $22 million per year Julio Jones is receiving or the deal for $20 million per season Amari Cooper just signed. Hopkins reportedly wants a new contact, and that clearly factored into the Texans’ decision, but managing those situations is part of the business of having a star player like Hopkins. He is without question a top-five wide receiver and some would argue he’s the best.
The Texans traded him to the Cardinals for running back David Johnson and a second-round pick, and the teams swapped fourth-round picks as well. The fourth-round pick the Cardinals received is for this year while the one they shipped to Houston is for 2021, so Arizona getting the more valuable fourth-round pick of the two is just the icing on the cake.
Whether it is the worst trade of all time really depends on how one feels about Johnson and his contract. The 28-year-old running back is coming off back-to-back seasons in which he averaged 3.7 yards per carry or worse, and most people saw concerning signs in his game, especially late in the season, that indicated his days as a quality running back are well behind him. The consensus among people I spoke to around the league is that nobody would have taken on Johnson’s contract, which has $10.2 million guaranteed for 2020 with another $2.1 million guaranteed in 2021. That means the Cardinals couldn’t have even given him away. If they wanted to get out from the burden of that contract, they would have to give up a draft pick, like the Texans did when they shipped Brock Osweiler, his $16 million guaranteed salary and a second-round pick to Cleveland in 2017. That’s how Michael Ginnitti, who owns and operates the popular contract website Spotrac, looked at the trade.
“To me, the second-round pick that Houston got from Arizona is canceled out by taking on the Johnson contract,” Ginnitti told me last week on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast.
Which would mean that Hopkins was traded for … nothing.
Even if you think Ginnitti is exaggerating the albatross of taking on Johnson, there is no question he reduces the value of the pick the Texans received. So, did they trade arguably the best wide receiver with three palatable years on his contract for a fourth-round pick? No matter how you choose to value it, we are talking about a pittance compared to the first-, fourth-, fifth- and sixth-round picks the Minnesota Vikings picked up when they traded wide receiver Stefon Diggs and a seventh-round pick to the Buffalo Bills a few days after the Hopkins trade.
A simple search bringing up the worst trades of all time will include the Saints sending every pick in the draft in 1999, as well as first- and third-round picks in 2000, to the Redskins for Ricky Williams, or the Vikings’ infamous trade for the Cowboys’ Herschel Walker, but in those instances, the team known for making the terrible trade at least got a good player in return. The Texans, according to Ginnitti and others, essentially gave up Hopkins for nothing.
Unfortunately — or fortunately, depending on your perspective — this is nothing new for O’Brien in Houston.
In August, he gave a third-round pick to Cleveland for pass-catching running back Duke Johnson. In an era in which smart teams continue to devalue running backs, giving up a third-round pick in order to pay $4 million per year to a guy who had 410 rushing yards and 410 receiving yards is absurd. That his skill set is redundant given what David Johnson might still be able to do just makes it comical.
Then, in September, O’Brien traded his first-round picks over the next two years, a second-round pick in 2021 and a couple of players (Johnson Bademosi and Julien Davenport) to the Dolphins for left tackle Laremy Tunsil, wide receiver Kenny Stills, a fourth-round pick in 2020 and a sixth-round pick in 2021. Again, he showed his lack of contract acumen by failing to get a long-term deal done with Tunsil at the time of the trade as the left tackle now has incredible leverage and will become the highest-paid offensive lineman ever when he signs his next contract. Plus, Stills’ contract was one the Dolphins were looking to shed and O’Brien gladly took that one.
At least the trades for Tunsil and Duke Johnson were an indication the Texans were all-in on the 2019 season and looking to seize the rare opportunity of having a franchise quarterback on his rookie contract, right?
Wrong. Shortly after trading Tunsil, O’Brien sent defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, who had been given the franchise tag, to the Seattle Seahawks for a third-round pick and a couple of role players in Jacob Martin and Barkevious Mingo. It was only made more curious when the Texans decided to pay $7 million of Clowney’s $15 million salary. It would be hard to make that up, but it’s true.
Even the third-round pick they sent to the Raiders for Gareon Conley in October seems rich. He’s an inconsistent cornerback and the Texans may not even exercise his fifth-year contract option, meaning they could have him for only one more year.
Then you have, of course, the Hopkins trade, but we’ve already been there and done that.
Again, any discussion of the worst general managers in NFL history will bring up names like Matt Millen and Mike Brown, but I would encourage you to compare their track records with the epic nine months O’Brien has had and give him strong consideration.
After all, he’s earned it.