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All encompassing 2023 Draft thoughts thread.

leebigeztx said:
I think Tune is a better prospect than McKee
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Tune has had more production but does not have the same upside. I don't think anyone will be looking at Tune or McKee as anything but backups that could develop.
 
Porky said:
McKee is another Mills. I have almost no interest in him, and none at all until day 3.

I like, but don't love Hooker. I think he's got some upside if his knee is right and he lands in the right situation. I do think he needs a lot of help though. I haven't watched as much of him live as the 4 in front of him, but the so-called experts say he isn't asked to read the whole defense and that he'll need a lot of polishing in that area to make the leap. I might go as high as 33 on him, but with the knee I prefer the 3rd round...and he probably won't be there then. I trust Ryans/Nick on this one, as they will have a more complete picture.

Right now, I've got Young as my clear #1. I've got Stroud a notch or two down.. I've seen a bunch of both of them. Then it's Levis for me and Richardson very close behind him. I've watched quite a bit of Levis, and somewhat less of Richardson, but more than I have of Hooker.

I see Levis/Richardson as boom or bust with a low floor. I see them as high-risk choices. In 3 years they could be total studs, or building homes with studs. They both could be turnover machines early on and will need a lot of patience and a good set of coaches to bring out the best in them.

Young and Stroud are high-floor guys to me that are ready to play in 23 with good to excellent ceilings and very low bust potential. Those are my two guys, with a strong preference for Bryce.

As far as flyers on a later pick where you roll the dice and see what turns up...I'm honing in on 3 - Max Duggan, Aiden O'Connell, and Jake Haener.

I've seen a ton of Duggan. He impressed the hell out of me as a "gamer" type although somewhat limited physically. But against Georgia, he was terrible and I've downgraded him some. But in the 6th or that general area, I'll take any of these 3 and see if you get lucky. Worth a roll of the dice, even if you land Young or Stroud.
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We have to have three qbs. Some here want to go with another vet to mentor our 1.2 pick. With the experience our qb coach, Jarrod Johnson, has as a player and coach, I think this is good. I'd rather us draft a qb in a lower round as the third qb. One of the ones you mentioned.
 
leebigeztx said:
Someone fixed the air raid qbs and the Tedford qbs, right? Someone also fixed the Clemson trash qbs and the Alabama , pro style qbs too. Look at the prospect, not the school or the systems to which they come from is my opinion.
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I'm not convinced the Clemson trash QB's have been fixed.

Tedford has one guy that's played like a franchise QB

Alabama QB's are the most NFL ready of the group you listed.

The smartest thing Burrow ever did was get out of Columbus.
 
Errant Hothy said:
Thoughts on the theory/fear that the Colt's will trade up to the first pick.

It's obvious why Indy wants to be picking 1, but I'm not sold on Chicago being too keen to trade out of it.

Let's say Indy pays the price and picks 1, then at 2 Seattle jumps Arizona and Chicago to get their pick of the top D talent (Anderson or Carter and Houston picks up a reasonable return), Arizona picks up the other one of Anderson and Carter and suddenly Chicago is left with the second tier of talent, and Houston still has it's choice of the rest of the QBs.

Yes, it is a lot of moving parts; but with only 2 of the top 5 being truly QB needy Chicago cannot guarantee they get their guy at 4.

Or that's what I was thinking at about 2am last night.
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Depends on how you feel about Tyree Wilson, plus the extra draft capital vs Anderson/Carter. I like Wilson a lot, so i'm looking to trade down if I'm Poles.
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm not convinced the Clemson trash QB's have been fixed.

Tedford has one guy that's played like a franchise QB

Alabama QB's are the most NFL ready of the group you listed.

The smartest thing Burrow ever did was get out of Columbus.
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From Boyd to Waston to Lawrence. McCarron and all thos Bama qbs were pro ready right? Nobody is pro ready until you actually see it for the most part. I'm just stating the obvious because we've seen the USC qbs be pro ready like Lienhart and Barkley. We've had Hackenburg awesome fresh season turn to dust. The best thing about the modern nfl is coaches are stuck in this imaginary box they once were in. They design offense around the qbs vs the old way. So coaching is critical in this aspect of qb development.
 
leebigeztx said:
From Boyd to Waston to Lawrence. McCarron and all thos Bama qbs were pro ready right? Nobody is pro ready until you actually see it for the most part. I'm just stating the obvious because we've seen the USC qbs be pro ready like Lienhart and Barkley. We've had Hackenburg awesome fresh season turn to dust. The best thing about the modern nfl is coaches are stuck in this imaginary box they once were in. They design offense around the qbs vs the old way. So coaching is critical in this aspect of qb development.
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Agreed, but certain types of QB's are winning championships. The only reason Mahomes made it to the SB is because the NFL is rigged and then they rigged the SB.

The NFL obviously wants Mahomes to become the new face of the NFL taking over the mantle from Brady.
 
steelbtexan said:
Agreed, but certain types of QB's are winning championships. The only reason Mahomes made it to the SB is because the NFL is rigged and then they rigged the SB.
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NFL is changing. It’s taking awhile, but like leebigeztx said coaches are approaching it differently. One day it’s going to be Jalen Hurts vs Lamar Jackson.
 
thunderkyss said:
NFL is changing. It’s taking awhile, but like leebigeztx said coaches are approaching it differently. One day it’s going to be Jalen Hurts vs Lamar Jackson.
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He hopes.

They've been saying this since the early 90's. It hasn't happened because glorified tailbacks playing the QB position always end up getting hurt and that's the end of their SB winning draems.

Being able to read defenses is the most important thing for a QB to learn. You also have to be able to throw from the pocket if you want to win championships. This part of the game will not change. IMHO
 
steelbtexan said:
He hopes.

They've been saying this since the early 90's. It hasn't happened because glorified tailbacks playing the QB position always end up getting hurt and that's the end of their SB winning draems.

Being able to read defenses is the most important thing for a QB to learn. You also have to be able to throw from the pocket if you want to win championships. This part of the game will not change. IMHO
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It is happening. Tom Brady was the last of his kind. No more pure pocket passers. No more rhythm QBs. They’re all dual threats now.

More Cam Newton than Peyton Manning.

We’re moving that way. It won’t be Hurts & Jackson specifically, but one of those types will win the Super Bowl in our lifetime.
 
steelbtexan said:
Agreed, but certain types of QB's are winning championships. The only reason Mahomes made it to the SB is because the NFL is rigged and then they rigged the SB.

The NFL obviously wants Mahomes to become the new face of the NFL taking over the mantle from Brady.
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Why wouldn't the nfl want the sb rigged towards Hurts? The nfl would gain more by Hurts winning vs Mahomes. Remember, the nfl wants parity. So if Hurts win, wouldn't that mean the trophy is open wider and every team has a chance ?
 
thunderkyss said:
It is happening. Tom Brady was the last of his kind. No more pure pocket passers. No more rhythm QBs. They’re all dual threats now.

More Cam Newton than Peyton Manning.

We’re moving that way. It won’t be Hurts & Jackson specifically, but one of those types will win the Super Bowl in our lifetime.
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Yep, you can't build a o-line good enough to have a qb who can't move or have mobility in the pocket. I'm not saying every qb is going to be running the ball like Hurts,Allen, or Lamar, but Mahomes won vs Bengals and Eagles with his legs. I mean his arm is incredible, but his mobility is his big joker. He doesn't beat Cincy nor Philly without his mobility.
 
thunderkyss said:
It is happening. Tom Brady was the last of his kind. No more pure pocket passers. No more rhythm QBs. They’re all dual threats now.

More Cam Newton than Peyton Manning.

We’re moving that way. It won’t be Hurts & Jackson specifically, but one of those types will win the Super Bowl in our lifetime.
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Carolina should've won that game also. Broncos defense played off the rails that game.
 
leebigeztx said:
Yep, you can't build a o-line good enough to have a qb who can't move or have mobility in the pocket. I'm not saying every qb is going to be running the ball like Hurts,Allen, or Lamar, but Mahomes won vs Bengals and Eagles with his legs. I mean his arm is incredible, but his mobility is his big joker. He doesn't beat Cincy nor Philly without his mobility.
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Or without the refs help he doesn't beat them either.
 
steelbtexan said:
He hopes.

They've been saying this since the early 90's. It hasn't happened because glorified tailbacks playing the QB position always end up getting hurt and that's the end of their SB winning draems.

Being able to read defenses is the most important thing for a QB to learn. You also have to be able to throw from the pocket if you want to win championships. This part of the game will not change. IMHO
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And you can't be a midget.
 
Richardson is like a cake that's been taken out of the oven to soon. That bad boy needs to go back in for another 10 minutes at 350 and then test with a toothpick to be sure.

I wouldn't take him in the top 10 for sure. At 12? Maybe...if you're willing to be patient. QB's always tend to get pushed up the board.

He won't be a guy that can come in and take the rock on day one.

There are only 2 of those dudes - CJ and Bryce. If you want a difference maker in 23, those are your only valid choices. Yes, it's always possible one of these others shows out in 23, but not likely. CJ and Bryce are ready to play now.
 
steelbtexan said:
Spurrier?
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Steve Spurrier went #3 overall in 1967. Started 38 games over a 10 year career. HOFer Bob Griese went with the following pick.

A GM and HC would have to have some big marbles to take Richardson in the top 10. Maybe Pete Carroll? I can't see McDaniels putting his career on the line for a project QB. Again.
 
Lucky said:
Steve Spurrier went #3 overall in 1967. Started 38 games over a 10 year career. HOFer Bob Griese went with the following pick.

A GM and HC would have to have some big marbles to take Richardson in the top 10. Maybe Pete Carroll? I can't see McDaniels putting his career on the line for a project QB. Again.
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If you are going to gamble, gamble on a hooker
 
TexansFan15 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1630231059181846528

This is unfortunate. He was one of the safeties I was looking into to add to our backfield.

I’m not sure what the recovery time is for this injury, so don’t know what the expectations would be for the ‘23 season.
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So he's immediately an injury concern? Sounds like the perfect prospect for the Texans. Let's trade all our 6th rounders and move up higher than any other human being would to ensure we get him.
 
I’m currently reading an article that the Athletic put out regarding the s2 cognition test. I wonder if the QB scores will be leaked because I’d love to know where the guys land.

Quote from the article:

“We’ve been doing the NFL draft for seven years,” Ally said. “From an S2 Cognitive perspective, last year was the worst year we’ve ever had score-wise. And this year is by far and away the best we’ve ever had, score-wise, at the quarterback position.”
He hinted that the quarterback whom many believe will be the first player drafted had an impressive score.
“I do have a feeling that a quarterback from Alabama that we have tested every year since he was in 10th grade may end up sharing his results publicly because he actually owns those results and the NFL does not,” Ally said.”
 
TexansFan15 said:
I’m currently reading an article that the Athletic put out regarding the s2 cognition test. I wonder if the QB scores will be leaked because I’d love to know where the guys land.

Quote from the article:

“We’ve been doing the NFL draft for seven years,” Ally said. “From an S2 Cognitive perspective, last year was the worst year we’ve ever had score-wise. And this year is by far and away the best we’ve ever had, score-wise, at the quarterback position.”
He hinted that the quarterback whom many believe will be the first player drafted had an impressive score.
“I do have a feeling that a quarterback from Alabama that we have tested every year since he was in 10th grade may end up sharing his results publicly because he actually owns those results and the NFL does not,” Ally said.”
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We had a discussion about the S2 test in the Young vs Stroud thread. See below.

Texansphan said:
Seems the league has been aware of the S2 test for a while but this is the first time I've heard of it.
Makes me wonder why, if the scores are supposed to be secret, that we know Young's score and not Stroud's?
Either way, you had better shore up the Texans Oline and running game to give your rookie every chance at success.
If I'm a candidate called to meet with a team that I want to go to, I keep my S2 report in my resume folder to present to them - if it's impressive that is.
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Lucky said:
The article did mention that 2022 was the worst year for QB S2 scores. And 2023 is far and away the best they have ever had, score-wise, at QB.
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Lucky said:
Neither has had their scores released. But Bryce Young can release his score, as he owns his test results. Stroud's and the others are owned by the league.
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Texansphan said:
Be nice to know who scored well. If Stroud or Levis scored well, it's a no brainer. Even Richardson.
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Lucky said:
I don't think anyone is saying this test is the definitive metric for determining who can play football. Just another piece in the puzzle in the total evaluation.

Here's a video on S2.
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Texansphan said:
Absolutely. There's no substitute for game tape and success rate.
Still, it does seem to be a sound metric when added to those criteria - especially when adding in other variables like the quality of the team around them.
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Lucky said:
Well, the S2 test seems more applicable to playing the game than the Wonderlic, that's for sure
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beerlover said:
I’m not so sure? If it comes to QB evaluation it’s not a definitive measurement? It’s just so new/untested, more data points to be quantifiable. Minimum Replaces Wonderlick Testing as the mental gymnastics of a prospects draft profile.

Draft hobbyist, like myself, will just be in dark, waiting for results to leak (Stroud). Getting tape, measurements and medicals from Combine and trying to gain insight through interviews and inside from coaches, scouts, family and friends. Such a game changer, if you find Mr Irrelevant with specifically targeted information.
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Lucky said:
It is new. And you don't know if it's a chicken or the egg kind of thing. Does having elite cognitive skills mean you're going to be a great QB? Or does playing QB for years improve your cognitive skills?

S2 will tell these players they can improve their cognitive skills with their help. Just as the Wonderlic coaches improved those scores and the speed schools that will improve 40 times. Teams may feel like they're chasing their tails in determining the output of these tests.
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Texansphan said:
Being a shorter QB will require more drop backs to better scan the field but in this day and age of a plethora of elite edge rushers, that becomes a risky business. That's why a taller QB and solid Oline are most desirable and more likely to succeed.
Brady at NE was a prime example.
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Edge rushers aren't the problem for shorter qbs, its the gut pressure. QBs all throw the same windows and lanes. They don't throw through players.
 
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leebigeztx said:
Edge rushers aren't the problem for shorter qbs, its the gut pressure. QBs all throw the same windows and lanes. They don't throw through players.
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Any pressure that flushes them out of the pocket exposes them to the rushers coming around the edges and B and C gaps as well.
 
Texansphan said:
Any pressure that flushes them out of the pocket exposes them to the rushers coming around the edges and B and C gaps as well.
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Nah, edge guys allows the qbs to climb the pocket ,short or tall. There is a reason outside pressure never really bothers the high end qbs. That gut pressure where you cant really step up is the problem. Edge pressure never bothered a smaller qb like Brees, but when that middle pressure came, the issues came also.
 
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leebigeztx said:
Nah, edge guys allows the qbs to climb the pocket ,short or tall. There is a reason outside pressure never really bothers the high end qbs. That gut pressure where you cant really step up is the problem. Edge pressure never bothered a smaller qb like Brees, but when that middle pressure came, the issues came also.
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yep and why QB needs to maintain cool and eyes down field with quick release.
 
Porky said:
So he's immediately an injury concern? Sounds like the perfect prospect for the Texans. Let's trade all our 6th rounders and move up higher than any other human being would to ensure we get him.
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1.2
 
Will Levis stuff:

With that in mind, I asked Jeremiah and three members of The Athletic’s college football staff: Nick Baumgardner, Seth Emerson and Chris Vannini — who’ve watched Levis a lot more than I have — these two questions:

1. What is your general evaluation of Levis?
2. Besides Allen, which current NFL quarterback would you compare Levis to?

Here’s what they said with the NFL Scouting Combine beginning Tuesday:

Jeremiah’s evaluation: “You start with the sacks and the turnovers. I mean, that’s the cause for concern. That’s the flag. So, you’ve got to navigate that, and you’ve got to dig into that if you are a team and talk to him and sit down and watch the tape and go through it and see if you can learn some things. Not all that stuff is going to be on him. When you look at some of the turnovers, there’s a good number of tipped throws. When you look at the sacks, the offensive line wasn’t very good in front of him this year, and there’s some blown protection. I would want to sit there and go through all the sacks and turnovers when you sit down with him because it is a big number and it needs to be explained. I don’t think that’s all on him.

“The injury thing is another one. I mean, I don’t want to go through and try and excuse away some issues, but when I watched him, I did not like when he was working to the left side of the field. I thought he was closed off. I thought he threw against (his body). Then I come to find out after I’ve watched the tape that he had a messed-up toe, he had a messed-up shoulder, and I think that impacted that to a degree. But the things that you can’t refute, he has a strong arm. He is a really good athlete. Especially the year before when he is healthy. You can see him as a runner. You can use him on some design quarterback run stuff as well as him just organically making things happen.

“He is tough. He hangs in there and takes shots. There are some times where I wish he would feel things better on the back side. Every time he gets hit, it’s a surprise party. I wish he just had a little bit better feel to get up and get away from some of those things. But toughness is not an issue at all. He can make every type of throw you want. It’s digging in on some of the issues to figure out what the deal is with him and why some of those things happen in terms of the turnovers and the sacks.”

Jeremiah’s NFL QB comparison: “As an athlete, I think there’s some comparison to Ryan Tannehill when he was coming out. I think you look at his frame, Dak Prescott is one. I think that’s a fair comp for him. Same conference, same build, same toughness. The stuff on Dak, when you talk to the coaches there — worker, intelligent, tough, winner. You’ll hear all those exact same things said about Levis. They rave about him. As I think about it, that might end up being the best comparison.”

Baumgardner’s evaluation: “Levis’ arm is as good as it gets in this class, perhaps the best. He can rip it from pretty much any angle, which often gets him into trouble— but can also get him out of trouble. His inconsistency as a passer mostly stems from inconsistent footwork and way too much reliance on his howitzer of an arm. Footwork can be coached and honed and improved upon. Levis’ inconsistencies take ownership for a share of his miscues last season. But Kentucky’s offense was also a mess compared to the year prior, and Levis was a bit banged up. There’s risk, but the reward is obvious when you see him throw.”

Baumgardner’s NFL’s QB comparison: “Athletically, I think he’ll wind up testing somewhere close to what Geno Smith registered when he came out about 10 years ago. Levis is in the 6-foot-2/6-foot-3 range, 220-230 pounds. He has good speed and foot quickness at his size and is a capable runner, though he needs to remember he’s better from a pocket.

“Smith is probably faster in the 40, but Levis is probably bigger and won’t have many athletic holes to his game (be it agility or explosion). He needs to be more disciplined with his feet, though. In and out of the pocket.”

Emerson’s evaluation: “I saw Levis against Georgia twice. The first time in 2021, he made zero impression, positive or negative. I actually had to look back to make sure he was Kentucky’s QB in that game. (He was, attempting 42 passes but only for 192 yards.) But given all the hype over Levis, I was well aware of him going into last year’s game, and was expecting to dismiss him. And yet, while his stats weren’t eye-popping (206 yards, one TD, one interception), I was actually somewhat impressed. In a swirling wind, Levis made some good throws. Now, was I impressed enough to think he should be the No. 1 pick? Heck no. Even a first-round pick seems a reach. But he seems a decent prospect, even if overrated by the scouts.”

Emerson’s NFL QB comparison: “Mitch Trubisky is the one that jumps to mind, not even so much in measurables, but the situation. Trubisky was the No. 2 pick the year after he played Georgia, and I also found that confounding. I get that this isn’t a science, that evaluating and projecting quarterbacks is hard, especially guys like Levis who haven’t had a lot of talent around them and have played in several different systems. But as a jaded college football writer, I look at a lot of these prospects and say: ‘Wait, shouldn’t how they perform in college mean something, especially when it’s at the highest level of college?'”

Vannini’s evaluation: “It really is wild to look back on the start of Levis’ college career, when he was basically only used as a battering ram, run-only quarterback at Penn State. The coaches never let him open things up, so he went to Kentucky and finally got to do that. While he was pretty good and certainly showed raw tools, he was never a quarterback who put a team on his back to win a huge game. If you asked me for his standout performance in college, I couldn’t tell you. He only once threw for more than 250 yards against a Power 5 team. Accuracy was an issue, and he got hit a lot.”

Vannini’s NFL QB comparison (unsure but not Allen): “It’s easy to see the comparisons to Allen, who only once threw for 300 yards against an FBS team. But Allen was a far less accurate quarterback in college than Levis was (56.2 percent versus 64.9 percent), and Allen had horrible performances against the few Power 5 teams he faced. Levis, while lacking standout performances, had plenty of solid-to-good performances on teams typically much less talented than the opponent. But the thing to remember about Allen is that he truly was a unicorn. College quarterbacks never get more accurate when they get into the NFL. Allen’s improvement in the NFL was basically unprecedented, and I wouldn’t make a top-10 draft pick thinking you can find that same kind of luck.”
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theathletic.com

Will Levis draws Josh Allen comparisons. Should Colts stay put and draft him?

Daniel Jeremiah and experts from The Athletic give their thoughts on whether Indianapolis should take the Kentucky quarterback at No. 4.
theathletic.com theathletic.com
 
Wilson: Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State -- "Folks who follow the draft might be familiar with Mauch's name -- he was dominant at left tackle for NDSU in the fall but his NFL future will likely be inside. And that's fine, too; Mauch worked at guard and center at the combine and he was a natural, and the fact that he looks like Thor's cousin doesn't hurt, either."
He is at #45 on CBS big board.
 
Bears could be huge winners in this draft.
Let's say Texans move up with Bears to take their QB - this puts Bears at #2.
Now figure another team sees their QB is still on the board and moves to trade #2 with Bears...
This trade could be very lucrative for Bears as two or even three other teams are still in the market for a QB and a trade war could ensue for this less expensive #2 pick.
Now Bears are in at least #4 position and will have the choice of either Will Anderson, Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson - two of these guys will still be on the board and may have been their original choice.
They could end up with 2 high first round picks in this draft plus a couple extra high 2nds, plus a couple extra first rounders next year plus an elite defender from this draft.
Bears fans must be very excited.
 
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