TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Smokescreen season.
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All encompassing 2023 Draft thoughts thread.
- Thread starter Texansphan
- Start date
Smokescreen season.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Okay guys - I think this is clever.
Let's say Texans QB is sitting at #2. Do not take him there.
Here's why.
You take Anderson at #2 and then immediately trade up from #12 with Arizona and then take your QB guy.
Think about it - you get Anderson and your QB.
Sure, it might cost you an extra protected first from next year, but why not?
Let's say Texans QB is sitting at #2. Do not take him there.
Here's why.
You take Anderson at #2 and then immediately trade up from #12 with Arizona and then take your QB guy.
Think about it - you get Anderson and your QB.
Sure, it might cost you an extra protected first from next year, but why not?
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
I posted this late last evening so it may have just slid by unnoticed.
What think ye?
Hervoyel
BUENO!
I don't think I'd give that up to move up so little for a QB in this class. I'm not a draft guy or a college fan or any of that but I don't really see a guy I'd move up from 12 on in this bunch. For example, I like Levis but he'll be there at 12 if I want to do that. Of that I have little doubt. I'd rather see what they get for those picks and maybe bundle something together that doesn't include my 1's to move up a little in the mid rounds to get another 2 or some 3's.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
I get it, but what if FO doesn't want to take the risk of missing out on a guy next year? And they intended to take the guy that fell to them here?
To create the opportunity, you have to take Anderson and take Arizona's pick to encourage them to now trade back.
The main risk would be if Arizona asks too much for #3.
There would likely be competition for to move up. Indy @ #4, Raiders @ #7. Pretty risky to get your guy.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
True, except Raiders are out of the QB stakes now.
Moving up to #3 would be a Ninja move on Indy.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
The Raider's Garoppolo signing plus Texans adding Jimmy Ward have obvious implications on the draft.
Raiders will take Jalen Carter if he falls to them. If not, they can get a top DB at #7.
Texans now won't prioritize DB. They may take a swing at a lower round guy for depth.
Raiders will take Jalen Carter if he falls to them. If not, they can get a top DB at #7.
Texans now won't prioritize DB. They may take a swing at a lower round guy for depth.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
If Texans don’t bring back Tavierre Thomas I can see them getting a CB like Hodges-Tomlinson if he drops to 104. Need to have 4 quality CBs these days. Right now they are three deep at CB and S respectively.
Edit: Thomas is back!
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I don't think Levis will be there. If the Texans take Anderson then someone drops and I think Detroit will draft whoever is left from the top 4. Who knows maybe Seattle does and let's them sit for a year or two. Either way one of the top 4 won't be there at 12
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
Why would the Texans have to take Anderson at #2 when he's more of a 3-4 OLB versus 4-3 DE? If the Texans stay at #2....I'd be much happier watching 4-3 DE- Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) join this defensive unit.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
If Texans don’t have a shot at Drew Sanders or Trenton Simpson at 2.33 I could get on board with Jack Campbell with one of the 3rds.
But in terms of maximum efficiency in allocating draft capital I would really like it if Demarvion Overshown is around at 4.104. Sign Perryman and have Overshown come in for passing downs while learning behind Perryman.
I think the converted safety has the talent to become another Fred Warner. And this is the perfect situation for him to become that.
I like the look of nickel defense with Overshown and Harris’ athleticism on the field. Run defense would be stout with Perryman filling the gaps against the run making impact plays.
But in terms of maximum efficiency in allocating draft capital I would really like it if Demarvion Overshown is around at 4.104. Sign Perryman and have Overshown come in for passing downs while learning behind Perryman.
I think the converted safety has the talent to become another Fred Warner. And this is the perfect situation for him to become that.
I like the look of nickel defense with Overshown and Harris’ athleticism on the field. Run defense would be stout with Perryman filling the gaps against the run making impact plays.
TexansFan15
All Pro
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Comparing Bijan Robinson to Saquon Barkley/Christian Mccaffrey. Obviously not the same player but Robinson likely to be the highest drafted RB since them.
Saquon draft profile:
CMC draft profile:
Bijan draft profile:
Obviously Bijan is a luxury pick but if you’re telling me the team is going to run the ball roughly 30 times per game like the 49ers do then it is hard to pass up the BPA at 12 and the impact he would have.
Saquon draft profile:
CMC draft profile:
Bijan draft profile:
Obviously Bijan is a luxury pick but if you’re telling me the team is going to run the ball roughly 30 times per game like the 49ers do then it is hard to pass up the BPA at 12 and the impact he would have.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Adding another strong back to our running game will also extend his and Pierce's careers.
I can't see Texans taking BR unless they trade back and he is still somehow on the board.
Can still add a nice piece further down or via FA.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Yes, you can add a nice piece. And that’s “fine”. But Robinson is an identity shift. Robinson/Pierce is the best RB duo in the NFL. Its been a long time since the Texans were the best at something. Foster/Tate esque.
As we saw with the 49ers last season, the scheme can make late round RBs look good. But if you get an elite player, they look great and make it so even Mr. Irrelevant looks good playing QB.
If Bijan is at 12 he’s my guy. This team has been not only bad, but boring. Adding Bijan to Pierce changes that and gives other teams something to be concerned about. There’s a reason Will Anderson named Bijan as the toughest player he played against. 12 is not too high to take a player with that sort of impact on the team.
I would have zero issues with Robinson at 12. Robinson is good enough as a receiver that you can make sure both Pierce and Robinson get the touches they deserve.
Honestly- and while this isn't something I hope they do- I wouldn't be mad if they went Richardson at 2 and Robinson at 12. A backfield with Richardson, Pierce, and Robinson (because I think you could have them all at the field at the same time) could be fun. It's certainly a gamble (and like I said, not something I would do if I was making the decisions), but I could see that working out for a while.
Honestly- and while this isn't something I hope they do- I wouldn't be mad if they went Richardson at 2 and Robinson at 12. A backfield with Richardson, Pierce, and Robinson (because I think you could have them all at the field at the same time) could be fun. It's certainly a gamble (and like I said, not something I would do if I was making the decisions), but I could see that working out for a while.
I wouldn't be mad. Because mad just wouldn't explain my frustration. Livid, Seething. What are the 5 stages of grief? That's what I'd be going thru. Because I would be done with these guys forever.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Richardson at #2 is insanity.
At #33 maybe. He is a rank project.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
I’m warming up to Levis #2. Predicated on Carolina taking Bryce.
So if you want Bryce, then don’t discount trading up.
Stroud agent is a real thing. Would support Hanna as reason why, so would listen to trade offers, even trade back to Colts.
Levis has the arm strength, size, durability, moxie and cocky demeanor (not everyone’s cup of tea) requisite of an NFL franchise QB.
So if you want Bryce, then don’t discount trading up.
Stroud agent is a real thing. Would support Hanna as reason why, so would listen to trade offers, even trade back to Colts.
Levis has the arm strength, size, durability, moxie and cocky demeanor (not everyone’s cup of tea) requisite of an NFL franchise QB.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
I’m warming up to Levis #2. Predicated on Carolina taking Bryce.
So if you want Bryce, then don’t discount trading up.
Stroud agent is a real thing. Would support Hanna as reason why, so would listen to trade offers, even trade back to Colts.
Levis has the arm strength, size, durability, moxie and cocky demeanor (not everyone’s cup of tea) requisite of an NFL franchise QB.
That’s a lot of hoping Levis is the next Josh Allen and Slowik is the next Brian Daboll.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Where did I say, next Josh Allen?
Very interesting article by SIS (Sports Info Solutions) analyzing the top 4 QB prospects in the draft. They were looking to see how the players around them (receivers/O-line) and the offensive schemes they ran influenced production.
Some of the numbers are not intuitive. Like Stroud had the tightest window throws. And Levis' pass protection was superior to both Young's and Stroud's.
SIS is a sports data analytics company that's partnered with NFL, MLB, and NBA teams as well as ESPN and sports betting sites.
Some of the numbers are not intuitive. Like Stroud had the tightest window throws. And Levis' pass protection was superior to both Young's and Stroud's.
SIS is a sports data analytics company that's partnered with NFL, MLB, and NBA teams as well as ESPN and sports betting sites.
I like LZ's stuff. But he is also part of the media.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
I was trying to give you some credit spending the #2 pick on the next Josh Allen. But you want the next Jay Cutler. Carry on…
KoolAid Sipper
AFCEVET
Nothing against the players but as I look at Saquon and CMC, my concern is what did it do for their team when they were drafted (let's say 4 years)? Also, looking at the Shanahan 49ers, most of the high draft picks went to defense and WRs until 2021. But you're right an elite RB (via trade) added to their talented team with SB aspirations contributed to Purdy's success.
Bijan has elite talent and if chosen he becomes the feature back over Pierce with Pierce being the rotational back. I just don't see a 1a/1b type of situation with a RB drafted in the 1st rd. Using both on the same play would be an occasional twist, however IMO, Bijan's receiving skillset is maximized with him coming out of the backfield to have the advantage over coverage. Thinking of his potential, he reminds me of Marshall Faulk. I'm not against him on day 1 but in today's game and economics (my RB bias), it better work out.
For me, if day 1 = QB and RB, then defensive BPAs are my target the rest of the draft. In 2024, my target would be OL and WRs.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
I’m not taking credit, nor do I agree with CBS Sports (Josh Edwards) comparing Josh Allen to Will Levis (measureables only). Trying to analyze his mechanics and mental makeup which to me remind me more of Phillip Rivers. Similar love/hate mentality. More upper body throwing motion mechanism with 3/4 motion under pressure. Yet plenty of velocity and decent accuracy with exception of touch/underneath throws. Most all QB’s need fine tuning and polish, think Levis has upside & work ethic to improve. Does need plus protection, that Rivers never had, but OL in order, could make Texan fans very happy.
FWI Jay Cutler was Lance Zierlien comp. Just to demonstrate bandwidth of opinion.
Jalen Carter would be better off watching the draft from home.
If we’re talking about tools & ability I don’t have a problem with a Cutler comparison.
Do you think they were including psyche & mental capacity as well? How would they support that assertion?
I know I come across extremely biased concerning these QBs so I’m just going to say I don’t think his conclusions follow his arguments & if
These are the shining examples of hismethodology, I’ll pass on whatever his research promotes.
I’m different. NFL is going to do what the NFL is going to do, but I would never pick Justin Fields or Kyler Murray before 20. Not going to do it.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Cutler & Rivers tested under old platform (Wonderlick Test) nowadays they have a much better way of measuring mental performance, particularly as it relates to QB position (S2 Cognitive Test). They’re kept private amongst NFL teams, unless leaked.
Wonderlick scores on other hand use to be public, so Jay Cutler scored 26. Phillip Rivers 30. Will effort to find S2 scores for Levis (4.0 GPA had offers from Ivy League). Read Bryce Young (who actually owns his S2 score) was highest in class (Brock Purdy range).
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You could definitely have them both on the field at the same time. BR is a reverse Deebo
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Both could easily get around 15-20 touches per game. Assuming the team runs average 30 times a game. Then Bijan would be first or second option in passing game.
badboy
Hall of Fame
Richardson at 2 is insanity but if Panthers take him 1, I'm yelling they are geniuses. Then going to breathe a sigh of relief equal to when Raiders signed Jimmy G.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
…..could Panthers truly be that stupid?
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Possibly.
They made that trade just 4 days after his pro day so might have had stars in their eyes.
On top of that, it was only a day or so after that monster trade, it was rumoured they were open to a trade for that #1! Buyers remorse after realizing their mistake?
We can read what we like into this, but if it is ballpark true, then they must have someone else in mind else why move up in the first place?
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Sounded to me like a specific group within Panthers organization, orchestrated the trade without consensus from ownership.
They may have sold Tepper a bill of goods, but you can be certain he signed off on itSounded to me like a specific group within Panthers organization, orchestrated the trade without consensus from ownership.
They pulled a coup on David Tepper ?Sounded to me like a specific group within Panthers organization, orchestrated the trade without consensus from ownership.
badboy
Hall of Fame
I would not think so but I saw another mock today with richardson first overall.
badboy
Hall of Fame
Reminds me of that song I think from ghostbusters about something going on in the neighborhood.
My understanding is different camps in Indy and Carolina concerning whom to select round 1.
And maybe in Seattle and Detroit. Does anyone have clear understanding on what Atlanta is going to do?
My understanding is different camps in Indy and Carolina concerning whom to select round 1.
And maybe in Seattle and Detroit. Does anyone have clear understanding on what Atlanta is going to do?
The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
I’m warming up to Levis #2. Predicated on Carolina taking Bryce.
So if you want Bryce, then don’t discount trading up.
Stroud agent is a real thing. Would support Hanna as reason why, so would listen to trade offers, even trade back to Colts.
Levis has the arm strength, size, durability, moxie and cocky demeanor (not everyone’s cup of tea) requisite of an NFL franchise QB.
IMO, Richardson and Levis have the same weaknesses, while Levis lacks the pure talent of AR. Would prefer AR at 2, assuming the Texans don't go Stroud/Young
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
No, no and finally no. Richardson is an athlete first and QB second - very much a project. No way he starts first season.
Levis has been behind a subpar Oline with subpar receivers in a pro style offense and has the strongest arm in this class.
The only candidate on offense he has in this draft is RB Chris Rodriguez.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
This Texans draft just became a lot clearer.
But, there is something else I've noticed about it too and that is it seems to be top and bottom heavy with only one pick in about the middle at #104.
I see the "blue chip" picks at the top going QB, ED, LB, C.
The middle pick can be bolstered a bit and pushed up the board using the 5th round pick.
Then we have a cluster of lower round picks.
These I see as mostly BPA with the hope of getting a solid rotational guy or two unless FO thinks they have a rough diamond or two down there.
So, taking a stab at the top 4,:-
#2 QB Young or Stroud
#12 Van Ness or Wilson or Murphy
#33 Simpson or Sanders
#42 Wypler. (Trade with Browns #65,#73)
WR can come from that middle pick - I have a feeling FO might be happy with our O at this point except for C.
But, there is something else I've noticed about it too and that is it seems to be top and bottom heavy with only one pick in about the middle at #104.
I see the "blue chip" picks at the top going QB, ED, LB, C.
The middle pick can be bolstered a bit and pushed up the board using the 5th round pick.
Then we have a cluster of lower round picks.
These I see as mostly BPA with the hope of getting a solid rotational guy or two unless FO thinks they have a rough diamond or two down there.
So, taking a stab at the top 4,:-
#2 QB Young or Stroud
#12 Van Ness or Wilson or Murphy
#33 Simpson or Sanders
#42 Wypler. (Trade with Browns #65,#73)
WR can come from that middle pick - I have a feeling FO might be happy with our O at this point except for C.