∙Bryce Young is (no pun intended) head-and-shoulders in the lead to be the first pick in the draft.
∙Tyree Wilson, the Texas Tech pass-rusher, might be in competition with Alabama’s Will Anderson for the top defensive prospect on Houston’s draft board, and that could mean something if the Texans aren’t quite as smitten with C.J. Stroud as Mock Draft World thinks.
∙Jalen Carter has two visits to top-10 teams left before Wednesday’s deadline for players to make pre-draft visits to teams. That’s what agent Drew Rosenhaus told me Saturday. I’ll tell you the team that is the most perfect fit for Carter in the NFL: the Pittsburgh Steelers, who’d have to trade up from 17 to get him.
∙Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a left hamstring injury last year. He had a gigantic 2021 season at Ohio State, then played only 60 snaps in 2022, and I’m hearing some reticence about taking a guy 12th or 18th in the first round when, in a 4.5-month season, he managed to play the equivalent of one football game with a hamstring injury.
∙This might sound crazy, but I’m not sure how many teams will be aggressive in trying to move up for C.J. Stroud if Bryce Young goes first to Carolina.
∙All the anti-Bijan-Robinson-in-the-first-round folks, hear this: There’s this reticence to pick a running back in the first round because he might not be around for a second contract. Fact is, most first-round picks don’t sign second contracts. Per overthecap.com, 31 percent of first-round picks from 2011-’14 signed second contracts with teams, and well under half the players from 2011 to 2019 (the last year we’d be able to figure if first-rounders got second contracts) re-signed.
∙One other Bijanism. His college coach, Steve Sarkisian, told me Robinson could be a slot receiver, regularly, in the NFL. I’ve got the clip to convince you. “I probably made a couple of receivers on our team mad last season,” Sarkisian said, “but he had the best hands on our team.”
∙This doesn’t mean anything on the surface, because the way “reporting” works this time of year, things that make sense get repeated and repeated and repeated and it all becomes one giant Insider Echo Chamber. But I didn’t hear anyone, in calls Friday through Sunday, who thinks the first pick won’t be Bryce Young. He may not be. I’m just telling you what’s out there.
∙I will not be surprised if, in the Edge category, Tyree Wilson is picked ahead of Will Anderson. I particularly will not be surprised if Houston—whether at two or through a trade-down if the Texans don’t take a quarterback—takes Wilson over Anderson. “DeMeco Ryans could look at Wilson after his year in San Francisco and say, ‘I got my Nick Bosa,’” said someone in the league who knows Ryans.
∙One coach with a pick in the top 10: “Wilson will be a better pro than Anderson.”
∙I’m like you. I hear the Houston’s souring on Stroud stuff, and I just can’t believe the Texans wouldn’t take a quarterback high in this draft. How would Cal McNair answer to his disaffected season-ticketholders if, after passing on a quarterback with the third and 15th picks in the first round last year, he passes on a quarterback at number two this year? It’s the job of coaches to get the best out of players, and there’s certainly enough potential in C.J. Stroud—should he be there for Houston at two—for the Texans’ coaches to make a good NFL QB out of him.
∙An increasing number of people around the league think Jalen Carter has done enough in his visits to not sink like a stone on draft night. (More on Carter in my next section.) It’s become almost a cliché, how many team officials think the Seahawks will take Carter with the fifth overall pick.
∙Best rumor of the week: Steelers trading up from 17 to nine if Carter’s there. There could not be a more perfect coach for Carter than Mike Tomlin.
∙Carolina owner David Tepper has not been overbearing in the QB-search process. I can hear it now: You’re giving us a sanitized version of this to get on Tepper’s good side. Uh, I’ve never met the man. I could care less about buttering up David Tepper. I’m just telling you the real stuff.
∙Peter Skoronski’s an interesting case. The Northwestern tackle has the dreaded short-arm plague, and two teams in the top 10 see him now as a guard. So what? Guard Chris Lindstrom got drafted 14th by the Falcons in 2019, and he’s now a cornerstone player in Atlanta. Ditto Zack Martin (16th) in Dallas, and with a slightly smaller exclamation point, Quenton Nelson (sixth) in Indy. All got second contracts. If Skoronski’s a great guard, getting picked ninth or 12th or 15th is absolutely fine.
∙This is not an overriding negative on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, an excellent receiver prospect. But the Ohio State football season was five months long last year, including practice, and Smith-Njigba got a left hamstring injury early, and he played 60 snaps total in three games, and never got on the field in the last 10 weeks. He runs a 4.48 40-. I’m not the only one wondering: How is Jaxon Smith-Njigba the top-rated receiver on so many boards with 10 days to go?
∙Former QB Lists of the Week. I asked the very opinionated Chris Simms of NBC Sports and Dan Orlovsky of ESPN, both former NFL quarterbacks, for their top five at the position. Simms has gained notoriety in the past few years for loving unfamous guys entering the draft, and he’s not as crazy this year, but a couple of his picks are notable.
What’s interesting to me: Both like Hendon Hooker more than the market—Simms in particular—and one thinks C.J. Stroud is Burrow-like while the other has cooled on him a bit.
And Simms, the one who brought you Kellen Mond and Matt Corral, has another one you’ll have to look up: UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Hmm. Purdy-like in this way—Thompson-Robinson started 48 college games.
Simms’ Top Five QBs:
1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State. “To me, Stroud was the offense at Ohio State. Bryce Young ran the offense at Alabama. Stroud’s the best pure pocket passer in the draft. He’s big, he can make any type of throw you want, he’s got a great ability to process information. He’s as good as I’ve seen at making all the throws since Joe Burrow.”
2. Bryce Young, Alabama. “The natural. He’s slick. I mean, there’s a lot to like. Like Stroud, the processing information there is really good. He’s got a lot of wow releases, but there’s not a lot of wow throws. But he is a phenomenal, quick athlete. He can make people miss. He can throw off different platforms. Of course I worry about his size.”
3. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee. “This is a pure pocket-passing quarterback. Man, nobody is better in the draft than Hooker playing from the pocket. People around him, hanging on him, and he can throw a 20-yard incut or a 20-yard comeback. You’re like, ‘Man, he couldn’t even step into that, and wow, what a throw.’ His ability to move is being way underrated.”
4. Anthony Richardson, Florida. “How can you not love his potential? I don’t love the comparison to Josh Allen, because Josh wasn’t this raw. But we’ve never seen anything like Richardson. His arm is the most explosive arm in the draft. His running is real. Yeah, there’s a lot to work on from the quarterback aspect. I hear some people say, ‘He needs to sit a year.’ It’s the exact opposite. This is Trey Lance. He’s gotta play; he hasn’t played enough. You gotta start him right away if you draft him.”
5 (tie). Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA; Will Levis, Kentucky. “Dorian Thompson-Robinson might be the most underrated prospect in the entire draft. Bigger than Bryce Young (Thompson-Robinson is 6-1 ½), better arm than Bryce Young. A little frail, but I think he’s ready to play right now. With Levis, the word for me is inconsistency—in everything. Decision-making, mechanics, quality of throw. I don’t see a guy with a natural feel for the position.”A