What is "reasonable expectation"? I would give the Texans a 30% chance to win those games. Is that a "reasonable expectation"? So who exactly would you put on that short list?
In the AFC you have the Pats and Chiefs , then a cluster of 2nd tier teams - Buffalo , Houston , Baltimore , Oakland , Indy all above .500
I don't buy into Buffalo , Oakland , Indy or Baltimore , they are playing above their talent.
Houston …. has me on the fence , one week they look really good , the next they play down to their competition. I don't have any reasonable expectation that come the playoffs they go into Arrowhead and or Foxborough and find a way to beat either of those teams - and most of that has to do with coaching. I don't expect OB to match wits with Reid and Belichick …. not with 6 years of history.
This week , with Mahomes possibly being gimpy and a plethora of other injuries to key players , they might go in there and sneak out with a W , the Texans are considerably better off in the health department.
Health is a big deal in the NFL …. But a healthy Pats or Chiefs , I expect both to be in the AFC title game. They have great QB's with better coaching than the rest of the conference.
Kinda reminds me of back in the Bum Phillips days …. I always counted on the Oilers going in there and knocking off the Steelers and I was let down time and again. I learned my lesson ….