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2019 AFC South Standings

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
Everyone keeps using this term "contender", but what does it really mean? The Texans have a very good chance of making playoffs yet again. Shouldn't that make them a contender? Or is it something more? Is it some high expectation that only 4 teams in the league would qualify as a "contender"?
Good question. I'd say their odds would have to be at least 1 in 20. There are about 11 such teams depending on where you look. Currently the Texans are listed about 1 in 40.
 

TheKDog

Hall of Fame
Since I'm not a gambler, I could care less about betting and what Vegas says. I look at the teams the old fashioned way. Through the eyes of a fan. The Texans may just start passing the eye test. It started last week against the Falcons and could very well continue against the Chiefs. If it does, O'Brien may very well put the Texans in a position to go far. Maybe, just maybe he's actually learning something and changing his views offensively. It sure looked that way against the Falcons. The offense was simplified and Watson was running plays he had complete control of. Just maybe that could be the norm going forward instead of the exception. We shall see.
Fair enough but using the eye test, the offense has been ridiculously inconsistent and the defense is worse than last year.

Maybe they'll play like they did against the falcons the rest of the year though
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
Fair enough but using the eye test, the offense has been ridiculously inconsistent and the defense is worse than last year.

Maybe they'll play like they did against the falcons the rest of the year though
That's the hope, but we shall see. This Texans team has a way of falling back 2 steps after taking a big step forward offensively. The defense is actually getting better as the season goes. They seem to be able to make the stop when they absolutely have to instead of giving it up. That seems to be a trend with RAC led teams. The Texans have a better defense then the Colts do and the Colts held the Chiefs to 10 points in Arrow Head. Considering that Mahomes is playing on a damaged wheel (Ankle Sprain) and his 2 most dangerous threats, Hill and Watkins are not likely to play, and his left tackle is also hobbled, the Texans defense has as good a chance to stop Mahomes and Kelce as the Colts defense had. If that happens, and Watson, Fuller, Coutee, Hopkins, Hyde, Johnson, Akins, and Fells look as good and stay on the same page, The Texans have a very good chance of running away with this game.
Damn. I'm gonna have to change my opinion on my weekly game thread. I've just talked myself into thinking the Texans can beat the Chiefs.
Thank you for making me see the light KDog.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Everyone keeps using this term "contender", but what does it really mean? The Texans have a very good chance of making playoffs yet again. Shouldn't that make them a contender? Or is it something more? Is it some high expectation that only 4 teams in the league would qualify as a "contender"?

Ask yourself if , come December / January the number of teams that have a reasonable expectation to go to Foxborough or Arrowhead and WIN. That's a short list.

That's your list of True Contenders in the AFC , teams with a reasonable expectation to go into those stadiums and come out a winner.

I don't know if I'd put the Texans on that short list - Yet.
 
Everyone keeps using this term "contender", but what does it really mean? The Texans have a very good chance of making playoffs yet again. Shouldn't that make them a contender? Or is it something more? Is it some high expectation that only 4 teams in the league would qualify as a "contender"?
You start to see who the contenders are around week 11. Opponents adjust during a season based on film, injuries and schedules, and several teams will have trouble keeping up.
 
Ask yourself if , come December / January the number of teams that have a reasonable expectation to go to Foxborough or Arrowhead and WIN. That's a short list.

That's your list of True Contenders in the AFC , teams with a reasonable expectation to go into those stadiums and come out a winner.

I don't know if I'd put the Texans on that short list - Yet.
Never underestimate the heart of a champion
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
Now that we've got all that out of the way, how bout we get back to the topic at hand. The 2019 AFC South standings. That is, after all, what this thread is supposed to be about.
 
Ask yourself if , come December / January the number of teams that have a reasonable expectation to go to Foxborough or Arrowhead and WIN. That's a short list.

That's your list of True Contenders in the AFC , teams with a reasonable expectation to go into those stadiums and come out a winner.

I don't know if I'd put the Texans on that short list - Yet.
So the Colts are contenders then?
 
Do they have a reasonable chance of going in there and winning in December / January ?

I don't think so - they caught the Chiefs beat up and took advantage of it.

Playoff games are a far cry from a regular season game.
So you think that as the season goes on the Chiefs are going to get less beat up and injured? That funny whenever I've watched a football season I've found that teams are more beat up when post season rolls around.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
So you think that as the season goes on the Chiefs are going to get less beat up and injured? That funny whenever I've watched a football season I've found that teams are more beat up when post season rolls around.

You don't think they'll get their WR's back …. their OLmen ? Mahomes wont get healthy ?

Yeah , they might have other injuries but those they have now are pretty critical.

Teams have extra time off in the playoffs - especially those that get a bye.
 
You don't think they'll get their WR's back …. their OLmen ? Mahomes wont get healthy ?

Yeah , they might have other injuries but those they have now are pretty critical.

Teams have extra time off in the playoffs - especially those that get a bye.
We didn't get our players back last year before the game with the Colts. If Mahomes has to run even more because his line is weak then how will he heal the ankle? And then when his linemen are back will that matter because he's been putting extra strain on it for several weeks. Smith took a bad tackle from Watt and that was the end of that, while I don't want anything to happen to Mahomes it is still possible. Extra time to heal doesn't always matter depending on the typo of injury and what you've been doing leading up to that time.

You're making it sound like they have an easy road between now and the playoffs, they don't and there will be some serious teams that they will be going up against.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Since I'm not a gambler, I could care less about betting and what Vegas says. I look at the teams the old fashioned way. Through the eyes of a fan. The Texans may just start passing the eye test. It started last week against the Falcons and could very well continue against the Chiefs. If it does, O'Brien may very well put the Texans in a position to go far. Maybe, just maybe he's actually learning something and changing his views offensively. It sure looked that way against the Falcons. The offense was simplified and Watson was running plays he had complete control of. Just maybe that could be the norm going forward instead of the exception. We shall see.

Obrien does this every freaking year, coach up one near perfect game that make us the fans say, " WOW". Then he reverts back to his old self.

Like you said maybe he has changed from his terrible ways. Fingers crossed for sure.
 

dream_team

All Pro
Ask yourself if , come December / January the number of teams that have a reasonable expectation to go to Foxborough or Arrowhead and WIN. That's a short list.

That's your list of True Contenders in the AFC , teams with a reasonable expectation to go into those stadiums and come out a winner.

I don't know if I'd put the Texans on that short list - Yet.
What is "reasonable expectation"? I would give the Texans a 30% chance to win those games. Is that a "reasonable expectation"? So who exactly would you put on that short list?
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
And are we going to get back to the thread topic? I mean this thread is about the AFC South standings. Not Mahomes' injury or if the Colts are contenders. Can we please try and get back on topic at least a little bit?
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Everyone keeps using this term "contender", but what does it really mean? The Texans have a very good chance of making playoffs yet again. Shouldn't that make them a contender? Or is it something more? Is it some high expectation that only 4 teams in the league would qualify as a "contender"?
My opinion a contender would be able to win the Super Bowl. I thought we were contenders last year. Then we got spanked at home in a Wild Card game.

I understand my previous analysis was based more on a hope & a dream. This year I'm doing the same thing, basing my expectations on hopes & dreams. We'll see how it works out in February... or maybe January.
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
Well, considering the Texans are 12th in points per game allowed at 23 and the colts are 16th at 24, I'd say, YUP. The Texans do have the better defense.
Plus, the Colts don't have Mercilus and Watt. Enough said.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
What is "reasonable expectation"? I would give the Texans a 30% chance to win those games. Is that a "reasonable expectation"? So who exactly would you put on that short list?

In the AFC you have the Pats and Chiefs , then a cluster of 2nd tier teams - Buffalo , Houston , Baltimore , Oakland , Indy all above .500

I don't buy into Buffalo , Oakland , Indy or Baltimore , they are playing above their talent.

Houston …. has me on the fence , one week they look really good , the next they play down to their competition. I don't have any reasonable expectation that come the playoffs they go into Arrowhead and or Foxborough and find a way to beat either of those teams - and most of that has to do with coaching. I don't expect OB to match wits with Reid and Belichick …. not with 6 years of history.

This week , with Mahomes possibly being gimpy and a plethora of other injuries to key players , they might go in there and sneak out with a W , the Texans are considerably better off in the health department.

Health is a big deal in the NFL …. But a healthy Pats or Chiefs , I expect both to be in the AFC title game. They have great QB's with better coaching than the rest of the conference.

Kinda reminds me of back in the Bum Phillips days …. I always counted on the Oilers going in there and knocking off the Steelers and I was let down time and again. I learned my lesson ….
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
We didn't get our players back last year before the game with the Colts. If Mahomes has to run even more because his line is weak then how will he heal the ankle? And then when his linemen are back will that matter because he's been putting extra strain on it for several weeks. Smith took a bad tackle from Watt and that was the end of that, while I don't want anything to happen to Mahomes it is still possible. Extra time to heal doesn't always matter depending on the typo of injury and what you've been doing leading up to that time.

You're making it sound like they have an easy road between now and the playoffs, they don't and there will be some serious teams that they will be going up against.

They , along with the Pats are still going to be the favorites in every game they play.

I wouldn't wager money on the Texans or anyone else knocking those two teams off in the playoffs on their home fields and I doubt you would either.
 

ATXtexanfan

Hall of Fame
They , along with the Pats are still going to be the favorites in every game they play.

I wouldn't wager money on the Texans or anyone else knocking those two teams off in the playoffs on their home fields and I doubt you would either.
This is true
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
You don't think they'll get their WR's back …. their OLmen ? Mahomes wont get healthy ?

Yeah , they might have other injuries but those they have now are pretty critical.

Teams have extra time off in the playoffs - especially those that get a bye.
Losing Chris Jones is really going to hurt the Chiefs.
 
Do they have a reasonable chance of going in there and winning in December / January ?

I don't think so - they caught the Chiefs beat up and took advantage of it.

Playoff games are a far cry from a regular season game.
Too early to say about the colts As for afc south standings Texans are at the top and can remain that way if they beat the colts
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
After the Texans man handled the Chiefs, The Titans got skunked by the Broncos and the Jaguars got beat by the Saints, the standings look like this after week 6...
(The Colts had the week off)

Texans 4-2
Colts 3-2
Jaguars 2-4
Titans 2-4

The division still looks the same since there were no division games this weekend.

Texans 1-0
Colts 1-0
Jaguars 1-1
Titans 0-2

Texans at Colts
The Texans should go into the Oil Can and saddle up them ponies. After this game, the Texans should be at 5-2 and the Colts at 3-3

Chargers at Titans
This one is hard to determine. The Titans and the Chargers are both Jeckle and Hyde type teams. Looking at the quarterback alone, this has to go to Phillip Rivers. After this one, the Titans could be 2-5

Jaguars at Bengals
Got to give this one to the Moustache. Jaguars will handle the hapless Bengals. After this, the Jags could be standing at 3-4

After week 7, this is a possible look at the teams records in the AFC South division.

Texans 5-2
Colts 3-3
Jaguars 3-4
Titans 2-5

The division could look like this

Texans 2-0
Colts 1-1
Jaguars 1-1
Titans 0-2

The Texans should be firmly in control of the AFC South division after this week.
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
After the Texans lost to the Colts, the Jaguars beat the Bengals and the Titans edged out the Chargers, this is what the records are.

Colts 4-2
Texans 4-3
Jaguars 3-4
Titans 3-4

The AFC South division now looks like this.

Colts 2-0
Texans 1-1
Jaguars 1-1
Titans 0-2

With that win, the Colts moved ahead in the over all and AFC South division standings. The Texans lost control of the division with that loss.

Broncos at Colts
At Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts are going to handle business against the Broncos. Their record after this game should be 5-2

Raiders at Texans
The Texans host the Raiders. This should be a win for the Texans....If they come to play. After this one the Texans should be at 5-3.

Jets at Jaguars
The Jaguars should be able to take this game. After this week, their record could be 4-4

Buccaneers at Titans
Being in Tennessee, The Titans should be able to win this one. After this, the Titans could be sitting at 4-4

Here's what the Teams over all record could look like after week 8.

Colts 5-2
Texans 5-3
Jaguars 4-4
Titans 4-4

Since there are no divisional games this week, the AFC South will still look the same.

Colts 2-0
Texans 1-1
Jaguars 1-1
Titans 0-2

Only 1 game separates the 4 teams. After 8 weeks, it's a very tight race in the AFC South. This is shaking out to be a very competitive division. The Texans just can't afford to lose more than 1 more game. 12-4 might not be enough to win the division, even if the Texans can get that record.
 
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Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
I hate to say it but that loss to the Dolts cost the Texans the #2 seed.

They were the #2 after beating the Chiefs and fell all the way to the last wildcard spot with the loss.

Frustrating loss.


Will be hard to overcome the Dolts to win the division ….they only have one game left against likely playoff teams (aside from the 2nd date with the Texans) while the Texans have two dates with likely playoff teams. Have to hope they slip up against an inferior team and the Texans can beat them in the rematch.

Even harder to regain that #2 seed …. its hard to pass 5 teams in the standings with so few games on the schedule.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
I think it's way to early to be locking in seeding. We haven't got to 8 games yet. From here, anything can happen.

I don't think so … the Dolts are a game up with a much easier schedule remaining. They could very well end up 12-4 / 13-3. They only have three teams remaining that are .500 or above. Saints , Panthers , Texans.

The Texans have 4 teams remaining .500 or better - The Raiders , Ravens , Patriots and the rematch against the Dolts.

The Ravens are currently in that #2 spot but I don't expect them to hold it as they have the toughest schedule remaining with 5 games left against playoff contenders - Pats , Texans , Rams , 49ers & the one loss Bills.
They will win that division and at worst host a WC game - the 3 other teams in the division combined have one less win than the Ravens.

The Chiefs will win their division too …. even if Mahomes sits another week or two. They only face 3 playoff contenders the rest of the way.

The Bills have fewer losses than anyone in the conference accept the Pats. They have 4 games left with .500 or better teams. I think they are a virtual lock to win 6 more games - the Dolphins , Browns , Steelers , Redskins , Jets & Bronco's … that puts them at 11 with a sub .500 Philly , a which team shows up CowPies , Ravens and Pats.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I don't think so … the Dolts are a game up with a much easier schedule remaining. They could very well end up 12-4 / 13-3. They only have three teams remaining that are .500 or above. Saints , Panthers , Texans.
I don't start applying this type of logic until December. Mid November at the earliest.

Denver hasn't given up trying to win. The Jags will probably win one game against the Colts & the Panthers could very well beat them as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs beat them.

& yes. Same is true for us. Raiders might win tomorrow. We might lose in Jacksonville. The Denver we play in December is probably going to be a much better team than they are in October.

Football season is the longest 17 weeks of the year.
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
I don't start applying this type of logic until December. Mid November at the earliest.

Denver hasn't given up trying to win. The Jags will probably win one game against the Colts & the Panthers could very well beat them as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs beat them.

& yes. Same is true for us. Raiders might win tomorrow. We might lose in Jacksonville. The Denver we play in December is probably going to be a much better team than they are in October.

Football season is the longest 17 weeks of the year.
Actually, the Texans and Jaguars will play the second game in London, not Jacksonville.
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
After the AFC South teams each won their games, this is how the record now shakes out for every body.

Colts 5-2
Texans 5-3
Jaguars 4-4
Titans 4-4

The Divisional record remains the same with no division games being played this past week.

Colts 2-0
Texans 1-1
Jaguars 1-1
Titans 0-2

Colts at Steelers
With Big Ben out, even being played in Pittsburgh, the Colts should best the Steelers. After this game, the Colts could be at 6-2

Texans at Jaguars
Boy is this a road game. All the way across the big pond in England, the Texans should edge out the Jaguars in a battle supreme. Starting quarterback is the only reason. Watson is better then Minshew. After this one, the Texans could be looking at a record of 6-3 over all and 2-1 in the division. The Jaguars could be looking at a 4-5 over all record and a 1-2 divisional record after this one.

Titans at Panthers

This is a hard one to call. The Titans have been playing well and the Panthers, not so well but it is in Carolina, so the Panthers get the edge. Titans go down in this one. The Titans could continue dragging up the rear in the division after this one with a 4-5 record.

After week 9, this is how the records could look.

Colts 6-2
Texans 6-3
Jaguars 4-5
Titans 4-5

The division could look like this after week 9 and 1 divisional game.

Colts 2-0
Texans 2-1
Jaguars 1-2
Titans 0-2

The Colts are going to be very hard to catch up to in the Division being just 1 game ahead. The Texans can't afford to lose any ground. Every game from here on out could decide the division winner. No room for error.
It's going to be a great race to the End.
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
With week 9 behind us, the Texans smashed the Jaguars, the Colts lost on a missed field goal to the Steelers and the Titans were manhandled by the Panthers, this is how the AFC South ended up.

Texans 6-3
Colts 5-3
Jaguars 4-5
Titans 4-5

The AFC South Division record looks like this after the 1 division game this week between the Texans and Jaguars.

Texans 2-1
Colts 2-0
Jaguars 1-2
Titans 0-2

Week 10 has the Texans and Jaguars on their Bye week.
The Texans will remain at 6-3 and the Jaguars will remain at 4-5.

Dolphins at Colts
The Colts should take this one easily in the Oil Can. After this week, the Colts could have a record of 6-3

Chiefs at Titans
Even without Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs should smack the Titans in Tennessee, however, Mahomes has targeted this game as his return. We'll see about that. Anyhow, after this week, the Titans could be looking at an AFC South worst 4-6 record.

When the dust settles on week 10, this is what the AFC South records could look like.

Colts 6-3
Texans 6-3
Jaguars 4-5
Titans 4-6

The division record will remain the same since there are no division games this week.

Colts 2-0
Texans 2-1
Jaguars 1-2
Titans 0-2

The Colts take over the division by half a game only by virtue of their win over the Texans in their first meeting. At any rate, the Colts loss to the Steelers opened the door for the Texans to take the division over possibly within the next 3 weeks after the Texans return from the Bye. This race is so close. The Texans have a golden opportunity ahead of them. Let's hope they can take advantage of it.
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
With Brissett and Hilton possibly out for 2 to 6 weeks between the 2 of them, should they both be out when the Texans play them in just 3 more weeks at home, the Texans could take the top spot in the division for good. Just take care of business against the Ravens to make it possible Texans!
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
Dolphins at Colts
The Colts should take this one easily in the Oil Can. After this week, the Colts could have a record of 6-3

Chiefs at Titans
Even without Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs should smack the Titans in Tennessee, however, Mahomes has targeted this game as his return. We'll see about that. Anyhow, after this week, the Titans could be looking at an AFC South worst 4-6 record.
And that's why they play the games on the field, rather than on paper.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I don't think so … the Dolts are a game up with a much easier schedule remaining. They could very well end up 12-4 / 13-3. They only have three teams remaining that are .500 or above. Saints , Panthers , Texans.
Since this post the Colts have lost to the Steelers & the Dolphins. Should've lost to the Broncos.

If Brisset doesn't play next week they will lose to the Jags. Even with Brissett they might lose to the Jags.
 

JamTex

Hall Of Fame Texans Fan!
After a stunning loss by the Colts to the Dolphins and a shocking win of the Titans over the Chiefs, the AFC South is firmly in the grasp of the Texans.

Texans 6-3
Colts 5-4
Titans 5-5
Jaguars 4-5

The AFC South division record still looks the same since there were no division games this week.

Texans 2-1
Colts 2-0
Titans 0-2
Jaguars 1-2


Week 11 has the Titans on their Bye week so their record will remain at 5-5 over all and 0-2 in the division.

Texans at Ravens
This game is going to be a war and should come with huge excitement as well as playoffs seeding implications. The Texans could possibly edge out the Ravens and come out of this game at 7-3

Jaguars at Colts
This divisional match up could go either way. It depends on who plays quarterback for the Colts. Hoyer is a loss and Brissett is a win. Also could depend on which Jaguars team shows up. Jeckle or Hyde? Being a division game, the Jaguars will be rested and will have had time to prepare for the Colts who ever plays quarterback. Jaguars should take it giving them a 5-5 record and a 2-2 divisional record. The Colts could be at 5-5 over all with a 2-1 divisional record.

After week 11 is over, this is a possible glimpse of the 4 teams records.

Texans 7-3
Colts 5-5
Jaguars 5-5
Titans 5-5

The AFC South division record could look something like this.

Texans 2-1
Colts 2-1
Jaguars 2-2
Titans 0-2

The Texans are in charge of the AFC South. They just need to control their destiny by winning against the Ravens. It's all on the Texans to keep what they have.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Jaguars at Colts
This divisional match up could go either way. It depends on who plays quarterback for the Colts. Hoyer is a loss and Brissett is a win. Also could depend on which Jaguars team shows up. Jeckle or Hyde? Being a division game, the Jaguars will be rested and will have had time to prepare for the Colts who ever plays quarterback. Jaguars should take it giving them a 5-5 record and a 2-2 divisional record. The Colts could be at 5-5 over all with a 2-1 divisional record.
We should also see Nick Foles back. I don't know how big a deal that's going to be. Minshew wasn't prone to mistakes & he's been better out of the pocket than I ever seen Nick Foles.

But Foles is not a bad QB & is more settled down than Minshew. He may be able to drive that offense better. We'll see.
 

ATXtexanfan

Hall of Fame
We should also see Nick Foles back. I don't know how big a deal that's going to be. Minshew wasn't prone to mistakes & he's been better out of the pocket than I ever seen Nick Foles.

But Foles is not a bad QB & is more settled down than Minshew. He may be able to drive that offense better. We'll see.
Foles is a closer. Jags are done. Nothing to close
 
If we make it out of next week 7-3 then we should start putting our foot on the throat of the rest of the division. That would be a solid lead against everyone and it should motivate the team to play even harder
 


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