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Watson’s a top 5 qb. Do you agree?

SnakeEyes

Waterboy
He sure did not look worth 100mil today. Running or passing. But I don't think anyone looked good today. And the place kicker might be on a suicidal watch...
 

Texanmike02

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Last 6 GamesComp%YardsTDIntPasser Rating
Russell Wilson66.6%1,86414995.2
Lamar Jackson61.7%1,1869588.0
Deshaun Watson68.4%1,747142113.1
I guess Watson isn’t the only one breaking.
What's interesting is the QBR. This would imply that most of his damage has been done this year in garbage time. I wouldn't have a hard time buying into the idea that it says more about the team as a whole than it does watson, maybe the coaches haven't cut him lose until it is time to try to get back into the game. I wish I could see the rating by quarter. Is he rating out as a 107 in all 4 quarters and he is getting drug down by the fact that the team blows chunks the whole game or is he playing poorly until the team is out of it. Finger in the wind tells me we haven't started strong but that could just be the result of watching a 2 - 7 **** show all year. I say watching, I haven't watched as much as I've listened. Didn't pay for sunday ticket this year just wasn't that into it.


1605627740587.png
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Last 6 GamesComp%YardsTDIntPasser Rating
Russell Wilson66.6%1,86414995.2
Lamar Jackson61.7%1,1869588.0
Deshaun Watson68.4%1,747142113.1
I guess Watson isn’t the only one breaking.
7 pts


0 pts in the 1st half against the Packers etc...

But those stats you posted sure look beautiful.
 

KarlK

Waterboy
What's interesting is the QBR. This would imply that most of his damage has been done this year in garbage time. I wouldn't have a hard time buying into the idea that it says more about the team as a whole than it does watson, maybe the coaches haven't cut him lose until it is time to try to get back into the game. I wish I could see the rating by quarter. Is he rating out as a 107 in all 4 quarters and he is getting drug down by the fact that the team blows chunks the whole game or is he playing poorly until the team is out of it. Finger in the wind tells me we haven't started strong but that could just be the result of watching a 2 - 7 **** show all year. I say watching, I haven't watched as much as I've listened. Didn't pay for sunday ticket this year just wasn't that into it.


View attachment 7025
Which is exactly what me, Steel and Corrosion have been saying all season. The homers don't want to hear it though, bury their heads in the sand and celebrate the 4th quarter window dressing he puts on week after week when the game is out of reach and defenses soften.

Just look at the GB game. That's Deshaun Watson in a nutshell.
 

Texanmike02

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Which is exactly what me, Steel and Corrosion have been saying all season. The homers don't want to hear it though, bury their heads in the sand and celebrate the 4th quarter window dressing he puts on week after week when the game is out of reach and defenses soften.

Just look at the GB game. That's Deshaun Watson in a nutshell.

I don't know if that's the case or not. That would take the kind of analysis I don't have the time to perform.

That you are calling someone a homer betrays the fact that you are probably no more objective than you disagree with.
 

KarlK

Waterboy
I don't know if that's the case or not. That would take the kind of analysis I don't have the time to perform.

That you are calling someone a homer betrays the fact that you are probably no more objective than you disagree with.
Solid retort: I say that he gets alot of his production in garbage time, and a statistic that you provided supports that very assertion......yet i'm not objective. Makes perfect sense.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
SplitValueCmpAttIncCmp%YdsTD1DIntRateSkYdsY/AAY/AAttYdsY/ATD1D
Quarter1st Qtr39642560.94451219092.66-317.07.675265.202
2nd Qtr61842372.627514372105.86-268.98.8212746.204
3rd Qtr46621674.195604211116.34-199.09.6011645.806
4th Qtr59913264.847778402111.810-648.59.3120693.515
1st Half1001484867.5712026562100.112-578.18.32171005.906
2nd Half1051534868.63133712613113.714-838.79.42311334.3111

SplitValueCmpAttIncCmp%YdsTD1DIntRateSkYdsY/AAY/AAttYdsY/ATD1D
Score DifferentialLeading44692563.77533423388.67-487.76.9311524.702
Tied26401465.00272015084.64-166.86.805438.602
Trailing1351925770.31173414792118.315-769.010.02321384.311
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
SplitValueCmpAttIncCmp%YdsTD1DIntRateSkYdsY/AAY/AAttYdsY/ATD1D
Quarter1st Qtr39642560.94451219092.66-317.07.675265.202
2nd Qtr61842372.627514372105.86-268.98.8212746.204
3rd Qtr46621674.195604211116.34-199.09.6011645.806
4th Qtr59913264.847778402111.810-648.59.3120693.515
1st Half1001484867.5712026562100.112-578.18.32171005.906
2nd Half1051534868.63133712613113.714-838.79.42311334.3111
SplitValueCmpAttIncCmp%YdsTD1DIntRateSkYdsY/AAY/AAttYdsY/ATD1D
Score DifferentialLeading44692563.77533423388.67-487.76.9311524.702
Tied26401465.00272015084.64-166.86.805438.602
Trailing1351925770.31173414792118.315-769.010.02321384.311
I'd love to see this kid play for someone who knows how to scout opposing teams & implement a game plan.
 

banned1976

All Pro
I'd love to see this kid play for someone who knows how to scout opposing teams & implement a game plan.
I'm not optimistic it will be in Houston; at least not under this ownership. They've gone through 3 GM's in 3 years. So first they have to get that right. And then the new Gm, Watson, McClain, Easterby, and Cal McNair will combine to find the right coach? And convince that person to come to Houston with very limited resources?

Even with Watson, Houston isn't a very attractive option for a HC or GM right now. I'm not sure how they're going to lure someone here that has a winning resume in coaching. It's likely they'll have to settle for some relative unknown.
 

OptimisticTexan

Go Texans 4-3...Post OB!!!!!
I think the Texans could be attractive to the right GM and HC. 2021 off-season would represent a time to properly evaluate the rostered talent and make decisions on who to try and trade before the draft and who to cut outright. 2021 would allow the new coach and his staff to start the process of teaching the players their system and hopefully coaching up the players.....even though a lot of the players could be depth chart players come 2022 unless they play into the starting lineup. 2021 essentially becomes a development season for players kept, players added via the draft and getting the cap situation under control heading into 2022. As for signing FA's in 2021, I'd roll the cap balance into 2022 where many more things could happen.

2022 would be the first real season and finally a full draft and maybe more to initiate a proper building of a new image for the Texans. Texans situation is not as dire as many think.....a solid GM and HC with a real plan and get this team on track in 1 season and finally be ready to re-fire the engines in 2022.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Gotcha. I was looking at the stats he quoted (which shows passer rating) & not the stats he provided (showing QBR)

That site didn't show passer rating , only QBR and I cant find a breakdown for PR by those metrics but either statistic worked for my purposes .... which was to show when he was putting up the bulk of the statistics .

The numbers do support my theory.
 

KarlK

Waterboy
Gotcha. I was looking at the stats he quoted (which shows passer rating) & not the stats he provided (showing QBR)
Though one wonders why 3 posters gave you a like on a message where all you said was he has a high QBR, when he actually doesn't have anywhere near a high QBR.

Then when one looks at who the 3 posters were that gave you the like, one doesn't wonder at all. You could've put up literally anything pro Watson, true or not, plus an personal insult towards their mother and those 3 would've still blindly clicked the like button.
 
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thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Though one wonders why 3 posters gave you a like on a message where all you said was he has a high QBR, when he actually doesn't have a high QBR at all.
They gave me a like asking how a high passer rating Leans to garbage stats.

Even a low QBR (16th in the league) doesn't say, "garbage stats" just that the plays he made did not help his team win.


In one of the sets of stats, it shows about twice as many plays ran when his team was trailing.


Unless I'm seeing it wrong. Can you explain how a low QBR (16th in the league) equates to "garbage stats"
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
That site didn't show passer rating , only QBR and I cant find a breakdown for PR by those metrics but either statistic worked for my purposes .... which was to show when he was putting up the bulk of the statistics .

The numbers do support my theory.
Just to be clear passer rating is what the formula you posted is. Completion percentage, yards, TD, and INT. That works on a scale of 0 to 158.3.

QBR was a stat created by ESPN that takes a lot more into account, sort of a DVOA type thing. The scale for that is 0-100, with 50 being average.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Just to be clear passer rating is what the formula you posted is. Completion percentage, yards, TD, and INT. That works on a scale of 0 to 158.3.

QBR was a stat created by ESPN that takes a lot more into account, sort of a DVOA type thing. The scale for that is 0-100, with 50 being average.

Yeah , I get that .... but the point was to show when he was putting up the bulk of the statistics (stats play into both figures).
It's fairly easy to see in those broken down statistics that he isn't nearly as productive early in the game as he is later or particularly while trailing and that's not difficult to understand as teams play different coverages in different circumstances dictated by time and score.

Last years #'s are fairly similar in that his lowest QBR is in the first quarter and when the game is tied.

What's different from this year to last year is his performances in wins vs losses.

QBR 2019

Wins 109.1
Losses 77.8

QBR 2020

Wins 109.0
Losses 106.4
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Yeah , I get that .... but the point was to show when he was putting up the bulk of the statistics (stats play into both figures).
It's fairly easy to see in those broken down statistics that he isn't nearly as productive early in the game as he is later or particularly while trailing and that's not difficult to understand as teams play different coverages in different circumstances dictated by time and score.

Last years #'s are fairly similar in that his lowest QBR is in the first quarter and when the game is tied.

What's different from this year to last year is his performances in wins vs losses.

QBR 2019

Wins 109.1
Losses 77.8

QBR 2020

Wins 109.0
Losses 106.4
And don't forget to compare him to others. It doesn't really give much perspective just quoting his stats if you're not comparing them to what others are doing.

As for his production early, or lack thereof, it could very well be on him that the Texans get off to slow starts, or it could be that the Texans game plans are just ****. I'd lean toward the latter myself.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
And don't forget to compare him to others. It doesn't really give much perspective just quoting his stats if you're not comparing them to what others are doing.

As for his production early, or lack thereof, it could very well be on him that the Texans get off to slow starts, or it could be that the Texans game plans are just ****. I'd lean toward the latter myself.

I'm done making comparisons - people twist those around to the point of stupidity.

The stats speak for themselves. They start slow and he produces better from behind.

Whatever the reason for that , you are free to draw your own conclusions.
 

GanadoUHCoog

Waterboy
I agree this is a real thing we are seeing from Watson, but I think our blind/dumb reliance on the run until we are behind later in the game and have to throw has something to do with it. Do we have data where he has been allowed to sling it early and often in any games? How did those games tend from Q1 to Q4?
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
Just to be clear this post is not directed at Steelb. He and I have discussed this already. Just using this as a template for framing the game to game breakdown of behind or in the lead production. Anyone can feel free to respond/contribute.

Game 1 K.C. 34-20 Meaningless stats the entire 4th qtr.

Game 2 BALT- it's kind hard to have meaningless stats when you score 1 TD in a game.

Game 3- Steelers no meaningless stat. They did manage to lay a goose egg in the 2nd half. LMAO

Game 4- Minny- Trailed by 14 in 4th but I will let you be the judge of garbage time.

Game 5 Jags- No garbage time.

Game 6. Tits- No garbage

Game 7 Pack- Entire 2nd half of Garbage time.

Game 8 Jags - no garbage
Honestly curious, what were the garbage stats besides these 3 quarters?

I'll certainly concede the KC and Balt. games as sh*t games, because they were. But they weren't even good enough stats to be considered garbage time stats. They were just sh*t all around games by everyone. Even though we were only down 10 to start the 4th against Balt. everyone deserves blame in that let down.

Do they run the offense different when behind? It seems almost obvious. But is that a product of a Watson deficiency? If so I don't exactly see how. Does the entire team come out flat or just Watson? Well we know the answer there.

I'm all ears to pick apart DW's negatives, because he for sure has some, but I've yet to see full on that being a non-competitive, empty-calorie stats whore is one of them. He plays his ass off from behind.. on a team built to have little chance other than to be from behind.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Just to be clear this post is not directed at Steelb. He and I have discussed this already. Just using this as a template for framing the game to game breakdown of behind or in the lead production. Anyone can feel free to respond/contribute.



Honestly curious, what were the garbage stats besides these 3 quarters?

I'll certainly concede the KC and Balt. games as sh*t games, because they were. But they weren't even good enough stats to be considered garbage time stats. They were just sh*t all around games by everyone. Even though we were only down 10 to start the 4th against Balt. everyone deserves blame in that let down.

Do they run the offense different when behind? It seems almost obvious. But is that a product of a Watson deficiency? If so I don't exactly see how. Does the entire team come out flat or just Watson? Well we know the answer there.

I'm all ears to pick apart DW's negatives, because he for sure has some, but I've yet to see full on that being a non-competitive, empty-calorie stats whore is one of them. He plays his ass off from behind.. on a team built to have little chance other than to be from behind.

Like I said above - its not really "Garbage time stats" .... and no , they don't run the offense any differently when playing from behind , the difference is in the aggressiveness of the coverages defenses are playing.
When teams are ahead they don't tend to cover as tightly , particularly safety play - as they do when tied / behind or in very close score situations - you get 10+ points ahead and the clock becomes your friend.
This makes the windows a little larger and concedes yards and sometimes scores while the clock ticks away.

They've been behind like that in every game this season aside from the two against Jax .... and Pittsburgh didn't play out that way , they just shut the Texans offense down in the second half.

This isn't just a "This year stat" either , last years were similar so you can't really blame it on this years suck alone.

What the stats show from last season is that if you put a competent team around Watson , he's good enough to beat most teams but the team goes as Watson goes as he had a 31.3 point swing in QBR between W's and L's. But he's going to make some mistakes and have some off days - pretty much like any other QB.

They very seldom march down the field on long drives controlling the game / clock / keeping the opposing offense parked on the bench , its big play or bust for the most part.
The problem is the offense being so reliant upon the big play (From Watson) to produce points and what the root of that is.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
I don’t have the time now, but how often are the Texans behind before they even touch the ball?

And the run game, or lack of it, does play a big factor. Constantly being in long down and distance makes things a whole lot harder, especially when the defense knows you have to pass, so they play it different. I mean, if you’re going to say defenses relax somewhat with a lead, then you have to factor that as well. Not being a run threat period, makes the defense play different. They can keep safeties back, which is taking away the deep game. So that plays a big role in how the game evolves.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
They very seldom march down the field on long drives controlling the game / clock / keeping the opposing offense parked on the bench , its big play or bust for the most part.
The problem is the offense being so reliant upon the big play (From Watson) to produce points and what the root of that is.
I agree. Makes absolutely no sense David Johnson isn’t averaging 25 carries a game. Makes no damn sense whatsoever.

Any body got Crennel’s name on pink soap?
 

KarlK

Waterboy
I agree. Makes absolutely no sense David Johnson isn’t averaging 25 carries a game. Makes no damn sense whatsoever.

Any body got Crennel’s name on pink soap?
The Texans hero-ball offensive system that stresses qb stats over team performance doesn't want any rb to have alot of carries; takes the ball out of the qbs hands too much and he can't get his stats. Look no further than how they handled the Hyde situation.

Hopefully a brand new system will be put in place next year where offensive balance and team performance are priorities.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
The Texans hero-ball offensive system that stresses qb stats over team performance doesn't want any rb to have alot of carries; takes the ball out of the qbs hands too much and he can't get his stats.
One thing leads to another. We can’t run. We don’t play a short game. Kid can only do what he knows to do.

O’Brien offense has been pathetic way before Watson. It’s easy for me to see Watson was not going to fix it. & I just don’t understand how Watson is supposed to progress in a system everyone else regressed in.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
I know there's been two big arguments when it comes to DW's / Offense's poor performance.
  1. Slow starts, particularly lack of scoring on first drive in particular
  2. No long/sustained drives, we appear to be all or nothing (the term commonly used is "hero ball")
Now, some interesting stats:
  • Throughout the BOB tenure (even before DW), Texans have been annually ranked at the bottom tier for 1st quarter offensive scoring. The anomaly, in 2018, the Texans ranked 8th in 1st quarter offensive scoring. What was different about 2018?
  • In 2019, Texans offense were:
    • 7th in offensive plays per drive
    • 7th in points per drive
    • 7th in plays per drive
    • 8th in time of possession per drive
    • 6th (lowest) in 3 & outs per drive
In summary, 2018 the offense seemed to have done a pretty good job at getting into fast starts. In 2019, the offense did a pretty good job at sustaining drives.

Thoughts?
 

OptimisticTexan

Go Texans 4-3...Post OB!!!!!
I know there's been two big arguments when it comes to DW's / Offense's poor performance.
  1. Slow starts, particularly lack of scoring on first drive in particular
  2. No long/sustained drives, we appear to be all or nothing (the term commonly used is "hero ball")
Now, some interesting stats:
  • Throughout the BOB tenure (even before DW), Texans have been annually ranked at the bottom tier for 1st quarter offensive scoring. The anomaly, in 2018, the Texans ranked 8th in 1st quarter offensive scoring. What was different about 2018?
  • In 2019, Texans offense were:
    • 7th in offensive plays per drive
    • 7th in points per drive
    • 7th in plays per drive
    • 8th in time of possession per drive
    • 6th (lowest) in 3 & outs per drive
In summary, 2018 the offense seemed to have done a pretty good job at getting into fast starts. In 2019, the offense did a pretty good job at sustaining drives.

Thoughts?
2018- Miller & Blue
2019- Hyde & Johnson
2020- Johnson & Johnson

The running game talent has gotten worse by a substantial margin in 2020. Could the loss of Hopkins be playing a part since the current crop of receivers do not demand double or triple coverage, therefore leaving an extra body available to help in shutting down the run game......not that it would take much.
 
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