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It's really easy to over-use a running back. I remember Larry Johnson with the Chiefs. He had a couple of great seasons, but in that second great season, he rushed for like 420 carries or so and after that, he was just toast.

Henry has been more durable than I expected. After a couple of great 350+ attempt seasons, his production dropped from 5.5+ ypa down to the more normal 4.3-4.5ish range, but he has not imploded and flamed out as bad as I expected him to.

I still wouldn't bet on him to be a great player going forward.
 
I don’t get the Henry hate. There are only three bell cow backs available, and he is one. He will also come significantly cheaper than the other two. Don’t get me wrong, Barkley is still my numero uno choice if the stars align, but I’d be pumped with Henry as well, and depending on what else they do with the savings…it could be the best overall path forward.

Where have we had the most trouble on offense? I’d argue 4 minute close out the game offense, and red zone. Anyone got an argument?

If you cannot see how Henry goes a helluva long way to solving both major deficiencies, we’ll just have to agree to disagree. And Henry has been very dependable, even last year. I think people get a narrative in their head and they cannot let it go. I look at people individually, not as part of a group. This is the same mindset that says Ohio State QB’s suck, ergo CJ Stroud is doomed. Anyone want to continue to debate that too?
 
Porky said:
I don’t get the Henry hate. There are only three bell cow backs available, and he is one. He will also come significantly cheaper than the other two. Don’t get me wrong, Barkley is still my numero uno choice if the stars align, but I’d be pumped with Henry as well, and depending on what else they do with the savings…it could be the best overall path forward.

Where have we had the most trouble on offense? I’d argue 4 minute close out the game offense, and red zone. Anyone got an argument?

If you cannot see how Henry goes a helluva long way to solving both major deficiencies, we’ll just have to agree to disagree. And Henry has been very dependable, even last year. I think people get a narrative in their head and they cannot let it go. I look at people individually, not as part of a group. This is the same mindset that says Ohio State QB’s suck, ergo CJ Stroud is doomed. Anyone want to continue to debate that too?
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Well stated. You can pencil him in for 1100 and 10tds. That offense out of 11 personal with Henry in the backfield is a menace
 
TexansBull said:
We all know Frank Gore is the exception to the rule. You can count on two hands at the most how many RBs who had 1000 yard seasons after age 30.
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It's actually more than you think. Plus it's a case by case basis. The Texans can still draft a rb or 2. They can sign Henry for 3 years but 2 years of real money and draft a rb in 3rd or 4th rd.
 
leebigeztx said:
It's actually more than you think. Plus it's a case by case basis. The Texans can still draft a rb or 2. They can sign Henry for 3 years but 2 years of real money and draft a rb in 3rd or 4th rd.
[/QUOT
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I could get on board with giving Henry 20 mil over 3 yrs with 12 mil guaranteed.

Mow that I think about this and offense that looked like this would make me very happy.

Stroud
Henry
Schultz/Draft pick
Collins
Worthy 2nd
Dell
Tunsil
Green/Green/Juice
Patterson/Juice
Mason
Walter Rouse in the 3rd rd.
Schultz

A very dangerous team.

Add on defense

DE WA/Chop/Barnett/Sanders/Horton
DT Wilkins/Collins/Tart/Davis/Hinish
LB's Watson (Trade 4th/Pierce/2025 4th for Watson) Harris/Cashman/Too Too/Hansen/Hewitt/Late rd pick
CB's Stingley/FA CB/King/Holloman/Late rd pick.
S Ward/Petrie/DHC/KJ.

That's a pretty solid squad.
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TheRealJoker said:
There’s always one person until somebody else does it.

Kind of like how Adrian Peterson is the last player to win regular season NFL MVP but never play in a Super Bowl during his career… until Lamar does it ;)

www.statmuse.com

Which Running Backs Over 30 Years Old Has A 1000 Yard Rushing Season | StatMuse

John Henry Johnson was 33 years old when rushing for 1,000+ yards in 1962.
www.statmuse.com www.statmuse.com
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Let's be real betting on that is extremely foolish and an easy way to handcuff your team if you're handing out a big contract and then betting on something like that.

Extremely extremely foolish.

I'd go with Henry over a short term because he's shown the ability to be a freak water carrier whose body defies the odds.

I do not feel the same about Saquon. He's declining and going to demand more $ than Henry. I wouldn't want to bet on that suddenly changing.
 
Sweech said:
Let's be real betting on that is extremely foolish and an easy way to handcuff your team if you're handing out a big contract and then betting on something like that.

Extremely extremely foolish.

I'd go with Henry over a short term because he's shown the ability to be a freak water carrier whose body defies the odds.

I do not feel the same about Saquon. He's declining and going to demand more $ than Henry. I wouldn't want to bet on that suddenly changing.
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Saquon is 26. He’s not declining, he was just on a team with Tommy Devito at QB.
 
leebigeztx said:
Tell me about Curtis Martin
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Tell me how many times Curtis Martin/Frank Gore ran for over a 1000 yards back to back.

Now look at Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. How many times have they rushed for over a 1000 yards back to back?

Gore and Martin were on a different level.

Tell me about Larry Johnson and Arian Foster.
 
leebigeztx said:
Tell me about Curtis Martin
Click to expand...

Curtis Martin, John Riggins, Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, Adrian Peterson, Corey Dillon...

There are guys out there who had a 1000 yard season or seasons after they were thirty. But you're talking about a handful of guys out of thousands.

Ladanian Tomlinson had 1110 yards when he was 29, 730 at 30, 914 at 31, then 280 at 32.

Jerome Bettis had his last 1000 yard season when he was 29, and then had 800 yards at 31 and 900 yards at 32.

Adrian Peterson had almost 1500 yards at 30 and 100 yards at 33, and 898 yards at 34. But he wasn't getting 6 yards a pop anymore like he was when he was 27.

Walter Payton was a consistent thousand yard rusher until he was 33.

Corey Dillon got 1600 yards when he was 30. And then 700 and 800 yards his final two seasons.

A few examples of guys doing that doesn't prove that Henry can do it. If he's going to be one of the greatest of all time, he's still got to put together a couple more thousand yard seasons and maybe that will be the motivation to him to do it. Maybe the Titans giving up on him will give him the impetus to come here and crank out a few more big seasons.

I'd love that.

I wouldn't expect it, though.
 
leebigeztx said:
Tell me about Curtis Martin
Click to expand...

Martin is a similar situation to Barkley and Jacobs. Being the bell cow for one team then traded. Martin spent three seasons with the Pats and then eight seasons playing for the Jets. Both teams used him heavily throughout.


Another one is Marshall Faulk. Five seasons with the Colts then traded to the Rams where we saw three seasons of historical production (seven seasons total with Rams but we know what happened after Greatest Show on Turf ended with the team).

What I am after is three elite seasons of production. It would be great to get a consistent RB ironman into his latter years. But all this talk about RBs after age 30 doesn’t even apply to Barkley/Jacobs. Both you want to get 3 years of high end production while the window is open. Give them a 3 year contract, it is not as crazy as some want to think that they can provide that.
 
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steelbtexan said:
I still wouldn't spend that money on a RB. I would rather put that money towards Jones and draft Irving/Allen in rd 2 or 3.
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I completely understand wanting to sign Jones but here’s my issue:

1) The cost. He is going to command a record breaking DL contract which will eat into the team’s depth. What happens if Jones get injured, which seems to be the Texans luck? Now you are thinner across the board having added that massive contract.

2) Age and accomplishments. He’s won two Super Bowls (could make it three this weekend). And he’s going to be 30 coming into this season. I am weary of signing someone who has accomplished everything a player wants to accomplish to such a large contract. I remember Ed Reed…

I’ve been reading ad nauseum about RB production after age 30 (even though Barkley and Jacobs will be 27/26 when next season begins).

But how many DL provide the type of production that warrants a 100 million dollar plus contract after multiple all pro/Super Bowl campaigns AND switching teams? I suspect the list is quite shorter than the one for RBs… and more expensive.

I would even go so far as to say Barkley/Jacobs/even Henry are more likely to play to the value of their contracts than Chris Jones will.
 
TexansBull said:
Tell me how many times Curtis Martin/Frank Gore ran for over a 1000 yards back to back.

Now look at Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. How many times have they rushed for over a 1000 yards back to back?

Gore and Martin were on a different level.

Tell me about Larry Johnson and Arian Foster.
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I am Deadpool. I say idiotic things that I wish could be deleted but alas, cannot be.
 
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The Pencil Neck said:
Curtis Martin, John Riggins, Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, Adrian Peterson, Corey Dillon...

There are guys out there who had a 1000 yard season or seasons after they were thirty. But you're talking about a handful of guys out of thousands.

Ladanian Tomlinson had 1110 yards when he was 29, 730 at 30, 914 at 31, then 280 at 32.

Jerome Bettis had his last 1000 yard season when he was 29, and then had 800 yards at 31 and 900 yards at 32.

Adrian Peterson had almost 1500 yards at 30 and 100 yards at 33, and 898 yards at 34. But he wasn't getting 6 yards a pop anymore like he was when he was 27.

Walter Payton was a consistent thousand yard rusher until he was 33.

Corey Dillon got 1600 yards when he was 30. And then 700 and 800 yards his final two seasons.

A few examples of guys doing that doesn't prove that Henry can do it. If he's going to be one of the greatest of all time, he's still got to put together a couple more thousand yard seasons and maybe that will be the motivation to him to do it. Maybe the Titans giving up on him will give him the impetus to come here and crank out a few more big seasons.

I'd love that.

I wouldn't expect it, though.
Click to expand...

I am Deadpool. I say idiotic things that I wish could be deleted but alas, cannot be.
 
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TheRealJoker said:
I completely understand wanting to sign Jones but here’s my issue:

1) The cost. He is going to command a record breaking DL contract which will eat into the team’s depth. What happens if Jones get injured, which seems to be the Texans luck? Now you are thinner across the board having added that massive contract.

2) Age and accomplishments. He’s won two Super Bowls (could make it three this weekend). And he’s going to be 30 coming into this season. I am weary of signing someone who has accomplished everything a player wants to accomplish to such a large contract. I remember Ed Reed…

I’ve been reading ad nauseum about RB production after age 30 (even though Barkley and Jacobs will be 27/26 when next season begins).

But how many DL provide the type of production that warrants a 100 million dollar plus contract after multiple all pro/Super Bowl campaigns AND switching teams? I suspect the list is quite shorter than the one for RBs… and more expensive.

I would even go so far as to say Barkley/Jacobs/even Henry are more likely to play to the value of their contracts than Chris Jones will.
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Ok give me Wilkins or Hunter then.

BTW, DL age much better than RB's.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Martin is a similar situation to Barkley and Jacobs. Being the bell cow for one team then traded. Martin spent three seasons with the Pats and then eight seasons playing for the Jets. Both teams used him heavily throughout.


Another one is Marshall Faulk. Five seasons with the Colts then traded to the Rams where we saw three seasons of historical production (seven seasons total with Rams but we know what happened after Greatest Show on Turf ended with the team).

What I am after is three elite seasons of production. It would be great to get a consistent RB ironman into his latter years. But all this talk about RBs after age 30 doesn’t even apply to Barkley/Jacobs. Both you want to get 3 years of high end production while the window is open. Give them a 3 year contract, it is not as crazy as some want to think that they can provide that.
Click to expand...

It’s still an apples and oranges comparison. Martin and Faulk had strung together multiple 1000 yard running seasons and a lot back to back.

Barkley and Jacobs have had much fewer in comparison. Much fewer.

And it isn’t an open window. It’s a closing window.

It’s a risky venture and the odds are not in the favor of the team that givens them a new contract.

This isn’t your wrong and I am right. It’s that I think your proposing a much more risky move than you believe and I believe the team doesn’t need to take that move right now.

But I defer to Caserio and Ryan’s. Whatever they do I am down with.
 
JB said:
Not near the risk, but more cost than a high draft pick. I'd rather the proven player. It's not my money
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Indeed. Also a matter of allocating resources where the coaching hasn’t caught up.

Ryans defenses have a reputation for maximizing the DL talent on the roster. We saw that this past season with the vets playing at/above expectation and Anderson doing the same. I’m confident they don’t need to spend 100 million plus on Chris Jones and risk losing out on other players and/or Jones not living up to the cost of that contract… very likely btw. How many non QBs are worth a 100 million plus contract?

I’m confident a Ryans defense will have a quality DL. I don’t need to spend 100 million to increase the chance that can happen.

We didn’t see that at RB. Singletary is Mr. Consistent. He played at the level he’s been playing at since he came into the league. But Pierce took a step back. I’m not banking on getting a difference maker in the draft, Pierce stepping up or Singletary being any more than solid. I want the bell cow.
 
steelbtexan said:
2 totally different situations

Your point is?
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Not as different as you think.

Both are important positions and they compliment each other. My point was your opinion obviously isnt the bible and you dont know or evaluate talent as well as you think you do.
The RB position market is hugeley UNDERVALUED and getting a monster of a RB in Saquon or Jacobs would do wonder for Stroud, the oline, the WR's, and the entire offense as a whole.

Draft picks dont always work out and who is to say the RB u draft is an immediate 3 down back bell cow??? Not likely. Saquon and Jacobs are 26 and 25 respectively and have proven they are everyday 3 down backs that are also very good at catching out of the backfield. And both have plenty of tread left to last a long term contract offer...especially for the price tag that RB's are getting these days.
 
sprtsfanatic said:
Not as different as you think.

Both are important positions and they compliment each other. My point was your opinion obviously isnt the bible and you dont know or evaluate talent as well as you think you do.
The RB position market is hugeley UNDERVALUED and getting a monster of a RB in Saquon or Jacobs would do wonder for Stroud, the oline, the WR's, and the entire offense as a whole.

Draft picks dont always work out and who is to say the RB u draft is an immediate 3 down back bell cow??? Not likely. Saquon and Jacobs are 26 and 25 respectively and have proven they are everyday 3 down backs that are also very good at catching out of the backfield. And both have plenty of tread left to last a long term contract offer...especially for the price tag that RB's are getting these days.
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Way different and I never said my opinions on prospects are the be all end all. Overall I'll put my track record up there with the best evaluators on this MB. We all miss on some prospects and anybody that says they haven't missed isn't being truthful.

We all have our strengths and weaknesses. Example Beerlover is great at evaluating DB's. Badboy knows how the cap stuff works pretty well. I'm good with OL/TE's etc....

Just beause I missed on Stroud doesn't mean you should discount my thoughts. Just as when Beerlover/Porky/Badboy etc... miss on their evals you shouldn't discount their opinions either.

With that said, Where we disagree is the value of a top RB is in relation to winning a championship. When's the last time a top 3 RB won a championship? Hopefully McCaffrey changes this. I'm for modeling the RB room after the Chiefs/Ravens/Eagles RB rooms. 2 solid vet RB's with defined roles and a drafted young talented guy in the 3rd/4th rd range and a ST's RB to fill out the RB room.

BTW, I wouldn't have an issue is Caserio/Ryans chose to sign Barkley and draft Thomas/Paul in rds 1-2 even if they had to trade up for Paul. This would give Stroud his best chance to succeed. Then spend the rest of the FA money re-signing the Texans FA's and bringing in new/FA's as well as spending the rest of the draft capital on the defensive side of the ball. You probably would end up with a defense as good as this yrs defense, maybe even a little better and a much better offense. Would the overall team be as good as the Chiefs/Ravens/49ers etc... who knows.
 
TheRealJoker said:
I completely understand wanting to sign Jones but here’s my issue:

1) The cost. He is going to command a record breaking DL contract which will eat into the team’s depth. What happens if Jones get injured, which seems to be the Texans luck? Now you are thinner across the board having added that massive contract.

2) Age and accomplishments. He’s won two Super Bowls (could make it three this weekend). And he’s going to be 30 coming into this season. I am weary of signing someone who has accomplished everything a player wants to accomplish to such a large contract. I remember Ed Reed…

I’ve been reading ad nauseum about RB production after age 30 (even though Barkley and Jacobs will be 27/26 when next season begins).

But how many DL provide the type of production that warrants a 100 million dollar plus contract after multiple all pro/Super Bowl campaigns AND switching teams? I suspect the list is quite shorter than the one for RBs… and more expensive.

I would even go so far as to say Barkley/Jacobs/even Henry are more likely to play to the value of their contracts than Chris Jones will.
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Tend to agree.
For the splash signing, I am leaning Mike Evans.
I would also bring in either Jacobs or Barkley and since we are seriously looking at a run for the Superb Owl, I also try to bring in Stefon Gilmore.
Gilmore is getting on a bit but his production level is still an upgrade and he shouldn't cost too much due to his age and his knowledge and leadership would be invaluable for this secondary.
 
Texansphan said:
Tend to agree.
For the splash signing, I am leaning Mike Evans.
I would also bring in either Jacobs or Barkley and since we are seriously looking at a run for the Superb Owl, I also try to bring in Stefon Gilmore.
Gilmore is getting on a bit but his production level is still an upgrade and he shouldn't cost too much due to his age and his knowledge and leadership would be invaluable for this secondary.
Click to expand...

Can you imagine doing this and Bowers fell to say 1-15 where some mocks have him going and trading up for him. If you wanted to go with a cheaper FA WR, Hollywood Brown would make a big difference and save about 10 mil per yr on the cap.

Evans/Barkley/Bowers and draft an OT in say the 4th rd Fisher or Rouse.

An elite offense.
 
JB said:
Not near the risk, but more cost than a high draft pick. I'd rather the proven player. It's not my money
Click to expand...

Risk is high.

See Le’Veon Bell. Or Marshawn Lynch. Or Maurice Jones-Drew. Dalvin Cook. Ezekiel Elliot. There are so many names where performance drops off around 27-28 give or take a year.
 
sprtsfanatic said:
My point was your opinion obviously isnt the bible and you dont know or evaluate talent as well as you think you do.
Click to expand...

Tell me the person that said Stroud would be Elite in his rookie year. That he would be in the top 5 QB conversation.

There wasn’t anyone. So everyone missed on their evaluations.

Being the guy that said “I wanted Stroud because Texans need a QB and he will be good” doesn’t mean you correctly evaluated Stroud. It means you got lucky and you were incorrect in evaluating how good he would be.

Everyone was wrong.

But one poster pointing at another and saying you were wrong about something so you can’t have an opinion is a douche move.

The internet is all about sharing opinions. And no one is right all the time.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Indeed. Also a matter of allocating resources where the coaching hasn’t caught up.

Ryans defenses have a reputation for maximizing the DL talent on the roster. We saw that this past season with the vets playing at/above expectation and Anderson doing the same. I’m confident they don’t need to spend 100 million plus on Chris Jones and risk losing out on other players and/or Jones not living up to the cost of that contract… very likely btw. How many non QBs are worth a 100 million plus contract?

I’m confident a Ryans defense will have a quality DL. I don’t need to spend 100 million to increase the chance that can happen.

We didn’t see that at RB. Singletary is Mr. Consistent. He played at the level he’s been playing at since he came into the league. But Pierce took a step back. I’m not banking on getting a difference maker in the draft, Pierce stepping up or Singletary being any more than solid. I want the bell cow.
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There's certainly a case to be made for signing Barkley/Jacobs etc... If Ryans/Caserio decide to go this route I hope the also add a vet WR like Hollywood/Ridley etc... Then draft an OT in the first 2 rds and spend the rest of the FA money/draft picks on the defense.

Two things are for sure with the going offense in FA. Stroud will be elite if healthy and they will be scoring more than 3 points in a playoff game.
 
Me personally, I don't see Henry all of a sudden becoming injury prone and not performing the next 2 years. I mean his sheer presence and recent production I think would benefit the offense. I mean 3 yrs 22m with 14m and bonuses to reach other incentives is doable. The team can still draft a rb or 2. I'm mean physically, Allen from Wisc is a clone of Henry. They could get him in the 3rd and let him learn from Henry. Running vs light boxes and in 4 minute offense is what can make his signing essential to me.
 
TexansBull said:
Risk is high.

See Le’Veon Bell. Or Marshawn Lynch. Or Maurice Jones-Drew. Dalvin Cook. Ezekiel Elliot. There are so many names where performance drops off around 27-28 give or take a year.
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Henry and Zeke were in the same draft, yet one guy is still producing and other is not. Cook got cut from Minny because he was due 12m, but he wad 1100 yds 8tds and 30 catches for another 300 yds. Jones Drew was one on bone, Bell sat out an entire year then signed with a terrible jets team
 
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TheRealJoker said:
Saquon is 26. He’s not declining, he was just on a team with Tommy Devito at QB.
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He's 26 AND declining - by essentially every measurable factor. There's no other way to put it.

It's also not odd whatsoever to see a RB on the decline after that amount of time, in fact it's basically expected. Whether he's 26 or not.
 
leebigeztx said:
Me personally, I don't see Henry all of a sudden becoming injury prone and not performing the next 2 years. I mean his sheer presence and recent production I think would benefit the offense. I mean 3 yrs 22m with 14m and bonuses to reach other incentives is doable. The team can still draft a rb or 2. I'm mean physically, Allen from Wisc is a clone of Henry. They could get him in the 3rd and let him learn from Henry. Running vs light boxes and in 4 minute offense is what can make his signing essential to me.
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Why would he be running vs light boxes? I keep seeing people say this and I'm surprised because when we had Pierce or Singletary back there opponents still ran heavy boxes frequently. Why would we get Henry and then they'd run light?

I do still believe in Henry because he's a freak of nature. That said he won't get the same amount of volume here as he did in Tennessee for better or worse as you could argue what made him so good was the fact he'd wear you down. Most of his production came in the 3rd quarter for a reason.
 
Sweech said:
Why would he be running vs light boxes? I keep seeing people say this and I'm surprised because when we had Pierce or Singletary back there opponents still ran heavy boxes frequently. Why would we get Henry and then they'd run light?
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With an improved running game there will be more focus by the defenses to stop the run, pulling the LB's and Safeties up. And surely you must see that Henry will improve the running game
 
JB said:
With an improved running game there will be more focus by the defenses to stop the run, pulling the LB's and Safeties up. And surely you must see that Henry will improve the running game
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That will also improve the passing game - more space to safely throw the ball into.
 
JB said:
With an improved running game there will be more focus by the defenses to stop the run, pulling the LB's and Safeties up. And surely you must see that Henry will improve the running game
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I get what you're alluding to but what I'm saying is opponents were already doing that.
 
Sweech said:
He's 26 AND declining - by essentially every measurable factor. There's no other way to put it.

It's also not odd whatsoever to see a RB on the decline after that amount of time, in fact it's basically expected. Whether he's 26 or not.
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Declining....LMFAO
If his production and abilities is "declining" I'll take a declining RB all day everyday.
Bonafide 3 down bell cow of a Rb with the ability to not only catch and run but also block in pass protection.

If we want to see a significant jump in our O's production landing and signing Barkley (or Jacobs) and retaining Schultz is a MUST.
 
leebigeztx said:
Henry and Zeke were in the same draft, yet one guy is still producing and other is not. Cook got cut from Minny because he was due 12m, but he wad 1100 yds 8tds and 30 catches for another 300 yds. Jones Drew was one on bone, Bell sat out an entire year then signed with a terrible jets team
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Remind me again if their ages when this happened.

I am not opposed to getting Barkley for cheap.

But it is a high risk high reward signing. In my opinion. It’s not just sign Barkely and get the performance of 2018, 2019, or 2022.
 
TexansBull said:
Remind me again if their ages when this happened.

I am not opposed to getting Barkley for cheap.

But it is a high risk high reward signing. In my opinion. It’s not just sign Barkely and get the performance of 2018, 2019, or 2022.
Click to expand...

I’d be more interested in getting the performance he is capable of in 2024 playing with the best supporting cast he’s had in his career.

Kind of like how CMC, playing with the best supporting cast he’s ever had, set a career high in rushing yards and total tds and has been the MVP of the league (if it wasn’t a QB only award) since being traded to San Francisco
 
Sweech said:
Why would he be running vs light boxes? I keep seeing people say this and I'm surprised because when we had Pierce or Singletary back there opponents still ran heavy boxes frequently. Why would we get Henry and then they'd run light?

I do still believe in Henry because he's a freak of nature. That said he won't get the same amount of volume here as he did in Tennessee for better or worse as you could argue what made him so good was the fact he'd wear you down. Most of his production came in the 3rd quarter for a reason.
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Teams were stopping the Texans run game with regular boxes or even light boxes because of their run game. Teams were stopping the run out of nickle sets even in 11 personnel. Part of what Teams were doing is when the saw that wing set with Beck, they would run blitz. If the Texans run 11 personnel with Henry, you're going to have a problem. Teams are in a bind trying to stop Henry with only 2lbs and 5 dbs on the field. Now if they insert a safety down, that opens the pass game up even more.
 
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