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Tunsil trade... Bad idea for Texans future?

banned1976

All Pro
Initially, I was okay with the trade. However, for the draft picks and contract, I was expecting more than just a solid pass protector. Do they even run behind Tunsil?
According to NFLsavant.com, they've run behind left tackle 27 times (10.23% of rush plays). In comparison, they've run behind center 87 times (32.95%). They average 4.44 yards behind LT and 4.29 yards per rush play.

 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
According to NFLsavant.com, they've run behind left tackle 27 times (10.23% of rush plays). In comparison, they've run behind center 87 times (32.95%). They average 4.44 yards behind LT and 4.29 yards per rush play.

This is another case where stats appear to lie.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
According to NFLsavant.com, they've run behind left tackle 27 times (10.23% of rush plays). In comparison, they've run behind center 87 times (32.95%). They average 4.44 yards behind LT and 4.29 yards per rush play.

Can’t imagine we averaged 4 yards a carry in any direction.
 

banned1976

All Pro
Can’t imagine we averaged 4 yards a carry in any direction.
Yeah, I know. The 1.97 off RT seems like the real deal and I would have expected those types of numbers across the board by what I've seen all year. But looking at PFF stats for David Johnson:

Game/YA
1 = 7.00
2 = 3.09
3 = 1.77
4 = 3.94
5 = 5.65
6 = 3.00
7 = 3.00
9 = 8.00
13 = 4.40
15 = 3.38
16 = 10.67

That was on 133 rushing attempts. Watson has rushed 87 times for 432 yards for a combined YA of 4.97.

Only NYG and JAX have run the ball less this season than the Texans. The Texans are 24th in the league in passing attempts. The conclusion from just those two stats that I get is, they get behind early and their opponent has the luxury of pretty much dictating the pace of the game. And the Texans would be a much better running team, IMHO, if only they weren't behind in virtually every game. It really doesn't matter if you can average 4 yards a carry behind the highest paid left tackle in the league if you're playing catch-up all game, every game.
 

amazing80

Fire Easterby
Yeah, I know. The 1.97 off RT seems like the real deal and I would have expected those types of numbers across the board by what I've seen all year. But looking at PFF stats for David Johnson:

Game/YA
1 = 7.00
2 = 3.09
3 = 1.77
4 = 3.94
5 = 5.65
6 = 3.00
7 = 3.00
9 = 8.00
13 = 4.40
15 = 3.38
16 = 10.67

That was on 133 rushing attempts. Watson has rushed 87 times for 432 yards for a combined YA of 4.97.

Only NYG and JAX have run the ball less this season than the Texans. The Texans are 24th in the league in passing attempts. The conclusion from just those two stats that I get is, they get behind early and their opponent has the luxury of pretty much dictating the pace of the game. And the Texans would be a much better running team, IMHO, if only they weren't behind in virtually every game. It really doesn't matter if you can average 4 yards a carry behind the highest paid left tackle in the league if you're playing catch-up all game, every game.
I would love to see that run game stats by quarter. Our run game only opens up after they commit to the pass. When we start games and try to control the pace we can’t. The playcalls have been predictable to us. Imagine what it’s like for paid defensive coaching staffs who study us. The run game will improve drastically next year with a new design
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Yeah, I know. The 1.97 off RT seems like the real deal and I would have expected those types of numbers across the board by what I've seen all year. But looking at PFF stats for David Johnson:

Game/YA
1 = 7.00
2 = 3.09
3 = 1.77
4 = 3.94
5 = 5.65
6 = 3.00
7 = 3.00
9 = 8.00
13 = 4.40
15 = 3.38
16 = 10.67

That was on 133 rushing attempts. Watson has rushed 87 times for 432 yards for a combined YA of 4.97.

Only NYG and JAX have run the ball less this season than the Texans. The Texans are 24th in the league in passing attempts. The conclusion from just those two stats that I get is, they get behind early and their opponent has the luxury of pretty much dictating the pace of the game. And the Texans would be a much better running team, IMHO, if only they weren't behind in virtually every game. It really doesn't matter if you can average 4 yards a carry behind the highest paid left tackle in the league if you're playing catch-up all game, every game.
They need to break the trend of not being able to score on the 1st drive of games.
 
Last edited:

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
They need to break the trend of not being able to score on the 1st drive of games.
That could be difficult since the Texans still have Kelly setting the game plan, roughly the same personnel executing it, David John son carrying the rock, the Texans playing for nothing, and the Titans playing for the division.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
That could be difficult since the Texans still have Kelly setting the game plan, roughly the same personnel executing it, David John son carrying the rock, the Texans playing for nothing, and the Titans playing for the division.
I'm talking about next yr.

This yrs over.
 

justmy2cents

Veteran
Contributor's Club
I thought it was for this game. As for next season......that'll either take care of itself or it won't b/c it'll solely be up to the new GM, HC, and his staff.

Boy, I feel insulted ! I think you should too ! I think we all should ! The countless hours we spend on this board …. hashing and rehashing the woes of this team ? It's a wonder they don't erect a monument to us ! It's a beautiful day. We could be hunting or fishing or playing golf …. but nooo …. we've got to sit in front of the TV, and gather all of our ammo, needed for all of our necessary assaults on this team and its leaders. It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to do it …. that's why they pay us the big bucks !
 

FuzzyLogic

Mathematically Possible
Boy, I feel insulted ! I think you should too ! I think we all should ! The countless hours we spend on this board …. hashing and rehashing the woes of this team ? It's a wonder they don't erect a monument to us ! It's a beautiful day. We could be hunting or fishing or playing golf …. but nooo …. we've got to sit in front of the TV, and gather all of our ammo, needed for all of our necessary assaults on this team and its leaders. It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to do it …. that's why they pay us the big bucks !
It's on me, and the rest of the posters, we just need to watch the film and post better.
 

Hookem Horns

Texas Born in Tampa Bay
Staff member
I want the Bills & Dolphins to keep the Patriots out of the playoffs for the next decade.
Brady is not going back to New England so I don’t think that’s going to be an issue. After watching Brady every game here this season it’s pretty clear to me that he was the engine behind their success. They were idiots for letting him walk despite his age. I expect Buffalo to be the team to beat for the next few years there.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Brady is not going back to New England so I don’t think that’s going to be an issue. After watching Brady every game here this season it’s pretty clear to me that he was the engine behind their success. They were idiots for letting him walk despite his age. I expect Buffalo to be the team to beat for the next few years there.
The Bills are really good.

After they find a run stopper and another CB they will be a complete team.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Plain & simple... the Tunsil trade was a gamble by BOB, and we lost.
I think we could have had Trent Williams for the 5th and next year 3rd and kept Dashaun on his feet. Then we could have drafted and developed if we had GM and coaching. We would still have the two firsts and a round two.I'm trying to focus on the future and quit irritating my stomach with the past. That will get better or worse in the next few months. I am not taking odds on which way my stomach will go.

edit:
Over the last three regular seasons (2016-2018), Williams has graded out as the NFL’s third-best left tackle (89.1). He trails only David Bakhtiari and Joe Staley over that span, beating out notable players like Andrew Whitworth and divisional rival Tyron Smith.

In 2016, the former Sooner posted the fifth-highest offensive tackle grade (92.7) in the PFF era (2006 – present), and only Jonathan Ogden, Tyron Smith and Joe Thomas (twice) have recorded higher overall grades at the tackle position.

Williams’ 2013 season is also tied for the 13th-highest overall grade (91.6) for an offensive tackle since 2006. He’s one of only six offensive tackles to earn multiple overall grades above 90.0 along with Ogden, Thomas, Staley, Jason Peters and Andrew Whitworth.

His impact on Washington’s offensive line cannot be overstated. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Redskins have earned a 77.6 pass-blocking grade and 67.4 run-blocking grade when Williams is on the field. However, when he has been out of the lineup, Washington’s pass-blocking (72.0) and run-blocking (63.6) grades have significantly dropped.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
I think we could have had Trent Williams for the 5th and next year 3rd and kept Dashaun on his feet. Then we could have drafted and developed if we had GM and coaching. We would still have the two firsts and a round two.I'm trying to focus on the future and quit irritating my stomach with the past. That will get better or worse in the next few months. I am not taking odds on which way my stomach will go.

edit:
Signing Trent Brown was another option. Some say getting Tunsil was the only option, that's why we had to overpay. I disagree, there were other options. The other option may not have been a better LT than Tunsil, but there were other options.
 
So far, based on his pay, and what we gave up to get Tunsil, the stats don't look great.
Per Pro Football Focus grades, (and yeah I know some folks don't like their ratings), out of 83 tackles with enough snaps to qualify:

Trent Williams was the top tackle, followed by David Bakhtiari and Garrett Bolles. All three graded out at over 90 points.
Duane Brown was #6 and graded at 87.3, and all of the top 6 also all grade out at 80+ in both run blocking and pass protection.

Tunsil finished at #28 of 83 tackles with a 75.4 grade. He was an excellent 4th rated/85.8 grade in pass protection, but a poor 49th rated/61.7 in run blocking.
This seems about right to the 'eye test'. He gave up very few QB pressures, but didn't seem to provide little running room.
Tunsil, the past 3 years, has consistently rated in the 20's, and graded from 74.5 to 75.4.
He probably is what he is after six seasons: a very good, but not great left tackle. NOT good value as the league's most expensive LT.

Tytus Howard was #62 of 83 tackles with a 62.1 grade. He was graded in the 60's in both pass protection and run blocking.
Roderick Johnson graded at 64.5, but didn't have enough snaps to qualify. He graded 73.9 in run blocking, by far the best of all Texans tackles
Charlie Heck graded at 58.6, but didn't have enough snaps to qualify. He was graded in the 50's in both pass protection and run blocking

C Nick Martin continues his downward spiral on a very expensive contract: rated #31 of 37 centers with a career low 56.1 grade. His run blocking was a pitiful #34 rating / 47.7 grade. How could Mancz have any worse production - particularly for the $'s? Martin has horrible value as the second most expensive NFL center (based on average guarantee per year). Cutting him gives $6.25M in '21 Cap savings.

Our Guards aren't great either: with our top 3: Fulton, Kelemente and Sharping rated 43, 69 and 73 out of 84 qualifiers respectively. YIKES. At least they're relatively cheap.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I said it at the time. Bad trade.

It was the type of move bad teams make and at the time people thought the Texans floor was mediocrity. Well here we are.

Owner should've never approved that trade or the Hopkins trade. Both are moves that hurt this franchise tremendously and it will take a good coach and good gm a couple years to fully recover.

Bill couldn't develop talent so his plan was to sign and trade for it. And the more control over personnel he got the worse this team got.

Specifically regarding Tunsil, another thing I said at the time that made it a bad trade is that you were giving up premium picks AND because he was on a one year deal you'd be forced to sign him to a huge contract. So you not only lost great draft capitol but you also lost cap friendly (presumably) high quality rookies.

The much better option (which i also said at the time) was to immediately move on from OB and bring in a staff that could develop players and build around Watson.

Had they done that and hired the right guy Watson and the entire team would be further along in their development, they'd have a better cap situation and this team would possibly be among the elite teams in the league.

But for some unknown reason they allowed OB and company to run the franchise into the ground and run off tons of fans in the process, and here we are.
I liked the Tunsil trade at the time and still do. You gotta protect DW4 and Davenport would have gotten DW4 killed. Plus there's no assurances that the #3 pick is going to be as good as Tunsil. See: Thomas with the NYG's.

Agreed about BOB and his staff not being able to develop guys and this goes for both sides of the ball.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
The primary evaluation I give on tunsil is the health of Watson. Of course I want him to be 100% in all aspects but he was brought in To be good at pass blocking. His job is to keep Watson on his feet and his arm attached to his body. So far he has been successful. In my opinion pass-blocking is harder to develop than run-blocking so I'll still have hope for that area. The key is finally getting a great coach as we've discussed for years. His contract is what it is and was to be expected is that is the NFL. The conversation about whether we should have refused to trade for him without an extended contract has little to do with anything now as he has re-signed and it allows us to get out of the contract Much quicker than I had originally expected. if we get a great offensive line coach for next season then my evaluation becomes much more strict.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I hate that we had to go to such extreme to convince the man with the power that BO'b is not a good HC.

Because that's what all that was about.

Remember we had a poster here who said BO'bs offense wasn't very good because of Rick Smith. How long has Ricky been gone?

Frig'n Pro-Bowl LT, 1st & 2nd round picks on the OL, can't run. Can't block a 4 man rush.

I'm not a genius, but if Ricky can supply talent for 3 coaches to field top 5 squads.... problem ain't Rick.

Does not mean Rick can build a conference champion. He's been given plenty of time with some damn good Super Bowl winning coaches. But he was better at his job without question than Bill O'Brien was at his job.

/rant.
 

banned1976

All Pro
It was noticeable-

Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) Tweeted:
Texans run offense DVOA in three games mostly without Laremy Tunsil (11, 16, 17): -2.0%

Texans run offense DVOA in all other games: -32.3%

It is small sample size theatre and also, at the same time, I cannot look away.
 


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