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Texans to trade and cut players for a better GM option (see article)

I don't have those sources, but O'Brien did start Tom Savage instead of Deshaun Watson. That lasted for one half of football.

According to John McClain in 2017, it was Rick Smith's pick:

"While the Texans prepare for the Chiefs, this is a good time to revisit the draft-day trade that brought Watson to Houston.

General manager Rick Smith, who had scouted Watson extensively, deserves credit for trading up from No. 25 to 12 to select Watson - the third quarterback taken behind Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago) and Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City).

Smith convinced Cleveland to swap first-round picks by offering the Texans' No. 1 draft choice in 2018.

Smith wanted Watson so badly he tried to trade with the New York Jets up to No. 6 but couldn't work out a deal that was suitable to both teams."

~ John McClain -
Source

I've read BOB wanted to start DW game 1, but it was Rick that urged he be patient with him. https://texanswire.usatoday.com/201...om-naming-deshaun-watson-starting-qb-earlier/

Thanks for the info, but still don't see how Watson was "forced" on BOB.
 
I've read BOB wanted to start DW game 1, but it was Rick that urged he be patient with him. https://texanswire.usatoday.com/201...om-naming-deshaun-watson-starting-qb-earlier/

Thanks for the info, but still don't see how Watson was "forced" on BOB.

I've read that, too, but I think it's BS spin after Watson showed a lot of promise during his rookie season.

I mean, when has Rick Smith EVER interfered with who is starting?? Everything I've ever read is that O'Brien had final say on the 52 man roster and who got to play.

Where I would counter that O'Brien was not all that stoked about Watson is to look at O'Brien's offensive scheme. He wanted a Tom Brady pocket passer, not an athletic QB who has the ability to run a lot. Mallet, Hoyer, Savage, Osweiler - none of these QBs were anything similar to Watson. Why would O'Brien suddenly change his basic metrics for QBs? It's not logical.
 
I've read that, too, but I think it's BS spin after Watson showed a lot of promise during his rookie season.

I mean, when has Rick Smith EVER interfered with who is starting?? Everything I've ever read is that O'Brien had final say on the 52 man roster and who got to play.

Where I would counter that O'Brien was not all that stoked about Watson is to look at O'Brien's offensive scheme. He wanted a Tom Brady pocket passer, not an athletic QB who has the ability to run a lot. Mallet, Hoyer, Savage, Osweiler - none of these QBs were anything similar to Watson. Why would O'Brien suddenly change his basic metrics for QBs? It's not logical.

This all makes sense, and could be true... I just want to see the proof BOB didn't want Watson. I just wanted to see if there was some type of leaked report or rumor, but looks like this is all based on speculation.
 
This all makes sense, and could be true... I just want to see the proof BOB didn't want Watson. I just wanted to see if there was some type of leaked report or rumor, but looks like this is all based on speculation.

And then there's this:
Bill O’Brien denies Rick Smith kept Deshaun Watson from starting week 1

Houston Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien says he decides which players start on his team.

A report came out this week from Matt Hammond of SportsRadio 610 that Houston Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien wanted to start rookie Deshaun Watson right away, but general manager Rick Smith told him that it would be better to wait and not rush him along.

O’Brien was asked about the report while talking to the media on Wednesday and refuted it.

From Texans Wire:

“I don’t know where – look, I think, like I’ve said for umpteenth time, we have an organization here that works very well together,” O’Brien stated, clearly agitated. “I decide who plays, Rick is in charge of personnel. I’m in charge of the 46-man gameday roster. I feel like every decision that I make is in the best interest of the team.”
Source

“I decide who plays, Rick is in charge of personnel. I’m in charge of the 46-man gameday roster. I feel like every decision that I make is in the best interest of the team.”
~ Bill O'Brien
 
This all makes sense, and could be true... I just want to see the proof BOB didn't want Watson. I just wanted to see if there was some type of leaked report or rumor, but looks like this is all based on speculation.

I do understand what you are asking, though, and I have been unable to find public statements from anyone remotely close to the Texans FO that can verify it.

That said, there have been lots of rumors and things said behind the scenes from 'unknown sources' close to the Texans that have continued to support the theory. So take it fwiw. I have tended to trust those sources because they have been right in the past.
 
This all makes sense, and could be true... I just want to see the proof BOB didn't want Watson. I just wanted to see if there was some type of leaked report or rumor, but looks like this is all based on speculation.

I vaguely recall reading posts claiming Ricky convinced BOB to start Savage over Watson. So, I guess all bases are covered where Ricky gets the blame for drafting a QB that O'Brien didn't want, but O'Brien gets the credit for disregarding Ricky's advice after one half of football.

As far as Mahomes, hindsight is 20/20. I don't get into mock drafts, but I do read draft profiles. I have yet to find one draft expert or review claiming Mahomes was a top 10 pick. Everyone who wanted to draft Mahomes now get tendinitis from patting themselves on the back. However, they forget that initially Mahomes was slotted to be a 2nd or 3rd day pick. Draft evaluators loved his arm talent but had questions about him being turnover prone, skittish in the pocket, being undisciplined, going off script. In fact, his weaknesses didn't appear to be what O'Brien wanted in the mythical "OB QB".

Kudos to Reid for going up and getting his QB and getting him up to speed. However, I'm still not sold that O'Brien would have been as flexible as Andy Reid in integrating the Texas Tech offense into his scheme. It would have been interesting to see if both QBs were on the board and the Texans selected Watson. Otherwise, it's pure speculation.
 
I've read that, too, but I think it's BS spin after Watson showed a lot of promise during his rookie season.

I mean, when has Rick Smith EVER interfered with who is starting?? Everything I've ever read is that O'Brien had final say on the 52 man roster and who got to play.

Where I would counter that O'Brien was not all that stoked about Watson is to look at O'Brien's offensive scheme. He wanted a Tom Brady pocket passer, not an athletic QB who has the ability to run a lot. Mallet, Hoyer, Savage, Osweiler - none of these QBs were anything similar to Watson. Why would O'Brien suddenly change his basic metrics for QBs? It's not logical.
Watson averaged about 11.5 rushing attempts per game in college; Mahomes about 10.
Not much of a difference there, especially considering Clemson run the ball more often than Texas Tech (ie., Mahomes' percentage in the team running game was actually a bit higher than Watson's).
 
I've read that, too, but I think it's BS spin after Watson showed a lot of promise during his rookie season.

I mean, when has Rick Smith EVER interfered with who is starting?? Everything I've ever read is that O'Brien had final say on the 52 man roster and who got to play.

Where I would counter that O'Brien was not all that stoked about Watson is to look at O'Brien's offensive scheme. He wanted a Tom Brady pocket passer, not an athletic QB who has the ability to run a lot. Mallet, Hoyer, Savage, Osweiler - none of these QBs were anything similar to Watson. Why would O'Brien suddenly change his basic metrics for QBs? It's not logical.
Agree. Neither Watson or Mahomes fits the OB QB metrics. Hell, he probably wanted Nate Peterman.
 
That was a situation they had to hit on. The late McNair was fed up with the way the quarterback situation was handled by Bill O’Brien. All the benching, the silly games and terrible QB play was very frustrating to Mr. McNair. That’s why they took a chance on Brock. It didn’t work out so they had to hit on the draft.

Smith wanted Watson to sit back and learn during his rookie year. I remember fans on here wanted that as well.

Bill O’Brien made it very clear to Rick Smith and the fan base that Tom Savage was ready to lead this team. This was said way before Watson was drafted. OTA’ s and training camp showed them otherwise. “Savage wasn’t ready at all”. So O’Brien wanted to go with Watson. Rick was opposed to that notion and Savage started game one. Savage went out there and looked like hot garbage and got benched. The rest is history.
 
Wouldn't suprise me, he was the number 1 qb on alot of draft boards. I myself had watson in the mid 20ish
The reviews I read, had him in that same range. I guess after the Chiefs unexpectedly moved up for Mahomes and QB needy teams like the Cardinals, Redskins and Ravens on the board, Smith couldn't wait and made the move.

It's interesting that the QB that appears to meet BOB's "metrics" was probably Trubisky.
 
I know we kind of take this as fact around here, and I'm not claiming it isn't true... but can you point to the source for this? Particularly Watson was "forced" on BOB.

BOB preferring Mahomes sounds very plausible, but him not wanting Watson at all sounds fishy.
To me it doesn't matter. He's the HC, he needs to coach whoever he gets to the best of his ability.

I mean, did Harbaugh want Flacco? Did Reid want McNabb? I don't know, it doesn't matter. You coach who you're given.

I can understand if they saddle you with a guy like VY who was intelligence deficient & can only play one way. You're asking yours coach to swim upstream.

But Watson is smart enough to play the NFL game. Just like all NFL QBs, though, he needed someone to help him transition.

& I don't think O'Brien helped him with that (& in O'brien's defense, he didn't have any history of doing it before).

As a rookie he let DW4 play the way he knew how to play. But the next year, he's got him sitting in the pocket reading the whole field. I think that's too much for any young QB.
 
The reviews I read, had him in that same range. I guess after the Chiefs unexpectedly moved up for Mahomes and QB needy teams like the Cardinals, Redskins and Ravens on the board, Smith couldn't wait and made the move.

It's interesting that the QB that appears to meet BOB's "metrics" was probably Trubisky.
Yeah I would say so too about trubisky. And after hoyers 5int performance in the playoffs, everyone be losing their minds if smith stayed put and missed out on all three QBs
 
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That was a situation they had to hit on. The late McNair was fed up with the way the quarterback situation was handled by Bill O’Brien. All the benching, the silly games and terrible QB play was very frustrating to Mr. McNair. That’s why they took a chance on Brock. It didn’t work out so they had to hit on the draft.

Smith wanted Watson to sit back and learn during his rookie year. I remember fans on here wanted that as well.

Bill O’Brien made it very clear to Rick Smith and the fan base that Tom Savage was ready to lead this team. This was said way before Watson was drafted. OTA’ s and training camp showed them otherwise. “Savage wasn’t ready at all”. So O’Brien wanted to go with Watson. Rick was opposed to that notion and Savage started game one. Savage went out there and looked like hot garbage and got benched. The rest is history.

Rick Smith may or may not have wanted Watson to start game 1, but O'Brien was very clear that it was his decision alone. We know having control over the final 52 and who started was part of his deal when he was hired as HC. I can't see him allowing a GM that he did not seem to care for make the decision about the starting QB on game 1.

And if there's one thing we know for certain about O'Brien, it's that he spoke his mind. And QBs were his thing.

If anything, Savage was his project and he thought he could start him, everyone else be damned. O'Brien probably believed that he could will Savage to be competent.

I have been unable to find any legit source that paints the scenario that fans have latched onto about Smith wanting Watson to sit and forcing the pick on O'Brien. There's speculation, of course, but they point to unnamed sources, and we can find stories that contradict each other.

Again, if anything, it was a collective boardroom decision based on a mandate from the CEO - Bob McNair. He demanded they draft a QB in the first round. Who, exactly, was up to the GM, HC, and staff.
 
To me it doesn't matter. He's the HC, he needs to coach whoever he gets to the best of his ability.

I mean, did Harbaugh want Flacco? Did Reid want McNabb? I don't know, it doesn't matter. You coach who you're given.

I can understand if they saddle you with a guy like VY who was intelligence deficient & can only play one way. You're asking yours coach to swim upstream.

But Watson is smart enough to play the NFL game. Just like all NFL QBs, though, he needed someone to help him transition.

& I don't think O'Brien helped him with that (& in O'brien's defense, he didn't have any history of doing it before).

As a rookie he let DW4 play the way he knew how to play. But the next year, he's got him sitting in the pocket reading the whole field. I think that's too much for any young QB.
Agree 100%. I never understood that excuse. You hire a first time HC with little NFL experience and for him to be successful, he has to have his own QB and control of personnel? Hopefully, the lesson learned is for Cal to clearly define the organizational roles and responsibilities. If Easterby is around, his role also needs to be clearly defined to the new HC and GM.
 
I don't have those sources, but O'Brien did start Tom Savage instead of Deshaun Watson. That lasted for one half of football.

According to John McClain in 2017, it was Rick Smith's pick:

"While the Texans prepare for the Chiefs, this is a good time to revisit the draft-day trade that brought Watson to Houston.

General manager Rick Smith, who had scouted Watson extensively, deserves credit for trading up from No. 25 to 12 to select Watson - the third quarterback taken behind Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago) and Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City).

Smith convinced Cleveland to swap first-round picks by offering the Texans' No. 1 draft choice in 2018.

Smith wanted Watson so badly he tried to trade with the New York Jets up to No. 6 but couldn't work out a deal that was suitable to both teams."

~ John McClain -
Source

This is RS legacy.

He's going to leave this franchise screwed up for a decade after he's gone.
 
Agree 100%. I never understood that excuse. You hire a first time HC with little NFL experience and for him to be successful, he has to have his own QB and control of personnel? Hopefully, the lesson learned is for Cal to clearly define the organizational roles and responsibilities. If Easterby is around, his role also needs to be clearly defined to the new HC and GM.
 
Agree 100%. I never understood that excuse. You hire a first time HC with little NFL experience and for him to be successful, he has to have his own QB and control of personnel? Hopefully, the lesson learned is for Cal to clearly define the organizational roles and responsibilities. If Easterby is around, his role also needs to be clearly defined to the new HC and GM.

Hopefully a GM is hired and the GM is allowed to hire his HC.

I seriously doubt this happens.
 
I may be in the minority here, but I am happy we aren't dumping guys (although I would be ok dumping Cunningham and Mercilus). We need a leader who can step up and stop the bleeding. Unloading guys for nothing is not helping. We already had one yahoo do that. If we get a great offer for someone, let's consider it, but don't let guys guy on the cheap.

Why, you want to hamstring the new GM with a messed up salary cap and no draft picks to work with?

Seems like a brilliant plan to me.
 
I've read that, too, but I think it's BS spin after Watson showed a lot of promise during his rookie season.

I mean, when has Rick Smith EVER interfered with who is starting?? Everything I've ever read is that O'Brien had final say on the 52 man roster and who got to play.

Where I would counter that O'Brien was not all that stoked about Watson is to look at O'Brien's offensive scheme. He wanted a Tom Brady pocket passer, not an athletic QB who has the ability to run a lot. Mallet, Hoyer, Savage, Osweiler - none of these QBs were anything similar to Watson. Why would O'Brien suddenly change his basic metrics for QBs? It's not logical.

Bottom line is RS didn't have a clue as to what kind of QB or OL BOB wanted for that matter. It was like they were trying to sabotage each other.

RS got the last laugh by leaving BOB a QB he never wanted.
 
I know we kind of take this as fact around here, and I'm not claiming it isn't true... but can you point to the source for this? Particularly Watson was "forced" on BOB.

BOB preferring Mahomes sounds very plausible, but him not wanting Watson at all sounds fishy.


Watson being forced on OB might be the wrong description of events.

Its a fact that Bob McNair laid down a mandate "Go get a QB" in that draft.

OB wanted Mahomes who they weren't able to get.

Watson was the one who was available and they picked him.

OB was more or less stuck with him ....

This all makes sense, and could be true... I just want to see the proof BOB didn't want Watson. I just wanted to see if there was some type of leaked report or rumor, but looks like this is all based on speculation.

That stuff was never printed by the media that I know of and wouldn't have been fair to either OB or Watson if the media did print it.
 
There are only 13 players still on the Texans that were either drafted or were UDFA while Smith was GM.

These are the only 2 that are still under contract from the Smith era

JJ Watt - Sep 2 2014 - Signed a 6 year $100 million extension
Carlos Watkins - May 11 2017 - Signed a 4 year $2.81 million contract

--------------------------------

These are the players signed during Smith's regime but resigned by either Gaine or O'Brien after he left.

Deshaun Watson - Sep 5 2020 - Signed a 4 year $156 million contract extension
Zach Cunningham - Aug 30 2020 - Signed a 4 year $58 million contract extension
Dylan Cole - Mar 12 2020 - Assigned a 1 year $2.133 million original round tender
Nick Martin - Sep 10 2019 - Signed a 3 year $33 million contract extension
Brennan Scarlett - Aug 28 2019 - Signed a 1 year $3.75 million contract extension
Will Fuller - Apr 26 2019 - Texans exercised a $10.162 million 5th year option
Benardrick McKinney - Jun 14 2018 - Signed a 5 year $50 million contract extension
Whitney Mercilus - Dec 28 2019 - Signed a 4 year $54 million contract extension
Brandon Dunn - Feb 19 2020 - Signed a 3 year $12 million contract extension
Jon Weeks - Sep 6 2020 - Signed a contract
Ka'imi Fairbairn - Mar 10 2020 - Signed a 4 year $17.65 million contract extension
 
Bottom line is RS didn't have a clue as to what kind of QB or OL BOB wanted for that matter. It was like they were trying to sabotage each other.

RS got the last laugh by leaving BOB a QB he never wanted.

I don’t think it was a matter of sabotaging each other as it was RS and OB both knew that one of them would have to go and RS drafted the QB he wanted thinking he would later hire the HC he wanted to pair him with.

Also to be fair we can’t say RS wouldn’t have drafted Mahomes. No one anywhere expected KC to rap frog like that and Texans has already moved up about as far as they could with what they were offering. KC had a perfectly serviceable QB in Smith so it would have made sense for them to just wait it out to see whether Watson or Mahomes dropped to them and save the draft capital. Hindsight says it was a great move but at the time lots of people questioned it. Remember Mahomes was third at best and not even really talked about until the combine.
 
I apologize for not taking speculation as proof. If BOB didn't like Watson, he had the power to not play him. He had the power to not extend him.

Did he though? There is an old saying in football of playing the money. Savage was a hot mess to say the least and I think if OB had not played Watson over Savage he would have been told by McNair to play him or he’d hire a HC who would.

As far as not extending him again you say you don’t take speculation as proof yet you are speculating that the order didn’t come from Cal to sign him no matter the price.

Fact is all we can do on here is speculate 99% of the time so if you are looking for rock solid proof then you won’t find it. Even reports and insider information require us to trust the source or the one reporting it.
 
Watson was not too high on most boards. Afterall, this is word for word the scouting report on Watson from the Bull Pen, I have it in my phone still. Directly from Athlon draft guide. And to be honest...I see the same thing now as was written then.

Pros:
Decent but not amazing arm strength
Ability to scramble and buy time
Hits targets on intermediate routes in stride
Throws well on the run
Average height
Team Player

Cons:
Injury history
Needs to add size
Rolling left he is not accurate
Questionable ability to read a D fooled by S's
A turn over machine when under pressure
Recivers bailed him out of INTs
Poor descion making
Deep ball floats due to lack of arm strength

Summary
Watson needs a team that can develop him. He has won at every level, yet never been the reason. Team player. Might be unable to get use to NFL speeds and D's. Watson is similar to a Michael Vick or Randal Cunningham with less arm strength and football IQ. Should be an early 2nd round pick for a team that needs a good QB 2 and time to see if he can develop or if he has reached his potential.
He can also be an over-agressive passer. The best example of that is Clemson's drive to end the half against Oklahoma in the playoffs. The Tigers won the game, so everyone forgot about the sequence, but Watson threw an interception in the end zone, in scoring territory, when the team was down one point with a timeout and 21 seconds on the clock at the time of the ball being snapped.
The last note that Watson left off on was the national championship game against the Alabama Crimson Tide, possibly his best game to date at Clemson. When digging deeper into his film and injury history, though, there are blemishes that most seem to gloss over.

During his senior year in high school, Watson sprained his MCL, which meant he had to skip the Under Armour All-American week. As a true freshman, Watson had surgery on his hand due to an injury against South Carolina, sustained an LCL injury and bone bruise against Georgia Tech and tore his ACL in practice. That all happened after he broke his collarbone leading up to his freshman year, which kept him out of Clemson's spring game.In 2015, he played injury-free with a knee brace on his left leg, but after five injuries in about a year, durability concerns should come up more often for a passer who is listed at 6'2" and 210 pounds by NFL Draft Scout. It wouldn't be surprising if he was compared to Griffin, who has had major knee injuries in the past, based on Watson's injury history and dual-threat ability.
 
I don’t think it was a matter of sabotaging each other as it was RS and OB both knew that one of them would have to go and RS drafted the QB he wanted thinking he would later hire the HC he wanted to pair him with.

Also to be fair we can’t say RS wouldn’t have drafted Mahomes. No one anywhere expected KC to rap frog like that and Texans has already moved up about as far as they could with what they were offering. KC had a perfectly serviceable QB in Smith so it would have made sense for them to just wait it out to see whether Watson or Mahomes dropped to them and save the draft capital. Hindsight says it was a great move but at the time lots of people questioned it. Remember Mahomes was third at best and not even really talked about until the combine.

Getting jumped in the draft seemed to happen to RS quite often.
 
There are only 13 players still on the Texans that were either drafted or were UDFA while Smith was GM.

These are the only 2 that are still under contract from the Smith era

JJ Watt - Sep 2 2014 - Signed a 6 year $100 million extension
Carlos Watkins - May 11 2017 - Signed a 4 year $2.81 million contract

--------------------------------

These are the players signed during Smith's regime but resigned by either Gaine or O'Brien after he left.

Deshaun Watson - Sep 5 2020 - Signed a 4 year $156 million contract extension
Zach Cunningham - Aug 30 2020 - Signed a 4 year $58 million contract extension
Dylan Cole - Mar 12 2020 - Assigned a 1 year $2.133 million original round tender
Nick Martin - Sep 10 2019 - Signed a 3 year $33 million contract extension
Brennan Scarlett - Aug 28 2019 - Signed a 1 year $3.75 million contract extension
Will Fuller - Apr 26 2019 - Texans exercised a $10.162 million 5th year option
Benardrick McKinney - Jun 14 2018 - Signed a 5 year $50 million contract extension
Whitney Mercilus - Dec 28 2019 - Signed a 4 year $54 million contract extension
Brandon Dunn - Feb 19 2020 - Signed a 3 year $12 million contract extension
Jon Weeks - Sep 6 2020 - Signed a contract
Ka'imi Fairbairn - Mar 10 2020 - Signed a 4 year $17.65 million contract extension

Snapshot view of what's wrong with the Texans.
 
What about the reaction of the other people in the photo? I can see if everyone except O'Brien was smiling and cheering. I believe John McClain debunk this as a well timed photo that just happened to capture Smith smiling.

Shocking
 
Watson was not too high on most boards. Afterall, this is word for word the scouting report on Watson from the Bull Pen, I have it in my phone still. Directly from Athlon draft guide. And to be honest...I see the same thing now as was written then.

Pros:
Decent but not amazing arm strength
Ability to scramble and buy time
Hits targets on intermediate routes in stride
Throws well on the run
Average height
Team Player

Cons:
Injury history
Needs to add size
Rolling left he is not accurate
Questionable ability to read a D fooled by S's
A turn over machine when under pressure
Recivers bailed him out of INTs
Poor descion making
Deep ball floats due to lack of arm strength

Summary
Watson needs a team that can develop him. He has won at every level, yet never been the reason. Team player. Might be unable to get use to NFL speeds and D's. Watson is similar to a Michael Vick or Randal Cunningham with less arm strength and football IQ. Should be an early 2nd round pick for a team that needs a good QB 2 and time to see if he can develop or if he has reached his potential.
He can also be an over-agressive passer. The best example of that is Clemson's drive to end the half against Oklahoma in the playoffs. The Tigers won the game, so everyone forgot about the sequence, but Watson threw an interception in the end zone, in scoring territory, when the team was down one point with a timeout and 21 seconds on the clock at the time of the ball being snapped.
The last note that Watson left off on was the national championship game against the Alabama Crimson Tide, possibly his best game to date at Clemson. When digging deeper into his film and injury history, though, there are blemishes that most seem to gloss over.

During his senior year in high school, Watson sprained his MCL, which meant he had to skip the Under Armour All-American week. As a true freshman, Watson had surgery on his hand due to an injury against South Carolina, sustained an LCL injury and bone bruise against Georgia Tech and tore his ACL in practice. That all happened after he broke his collarbone leading up to his freshman year, which kept him out of Clemson's spring game.In 2015, he played injury-free with a knee brace on his left leg, but after five injuries in about a year, durability concerns should come up more often for a passer who is listed at 6'2" and 210 pounds by NFL Draft Scout. It wouldn't be surprising if he was compared to Griffin, who has had major knee injuries in the past, based on Watson's injury history and dual-threat ability.
Yet Athlon had Watson at #34 and Mahomes at #99. Go figure.
 
What about the reaction of the other people in the photo? I can see if everyone except O'Brien was smiling and cheering. I believe John McClain debunk this as a well timed photo that just happened to capture Smith smiling.

Could be I just go by what I see and I wouldn’t trust McClain to tell me what time it is. Saying it’s just a well timed photo is him speculating and the argument seems to be that speculating is not enough for this discussion.
 
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