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Texans random thought of the day

76Texan said:
See, there's the flaw with QBR.

You don't trust it.

Do you really want to pay Fitz 10M (6M guaranteed) to be your bridge QB?

www.spotrac.com

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Fitzpatrick contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
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I don't know what "trust" has to do with anything. And now, if you want to factor in salary, I'd go with a player like TT. There are other factors to consider other than ratings.
 
Number19 said:
I don't know what "trust" has to do with anything. And now, if you want to factor in salary, I'd go with a player like TT. There are other factors to consider other than ratings.
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One of the reasons for Fitz' salary is supposed to be his durabity.

TT is the other way around.
 
thunderkyss said:
Just like any stat, it's only part of the equation, depending on what I'm looking for.
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Except... technically... it's not a stat. It's an averaged group of subjective opinions. Someone is out there grading plays by player X based on what they think a non-existent player Y would have done in the same situation.

That's why I don't trust it. Or DVOA "stats." They're presented as stats when they're not.

Now, passer rating is flawed as well, but at least it takes a few different things into consideration... but probably not enough. It's better than just looking at yards or just looking at interception ratios or net adjusted yards or something.

But there's no way to put some grading system together that isn't flawed. Ultimately, you've got to let them play and settle it on the field.

I come from a math background. I'm going to trust numbers over opinions, but I know that just numbers don't tell the complete story.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Except... technically... it's not a stat. It's an averaged group of subjective opinions. Someone is out there grading plays by player X based on what they think a non-existent player Y would have done in the same situation.

That's why I don't trust it. Or DVOA "stats." They're presented as stats when they're not.

Now, passer rating is flawed as well, but at least it takes a few different things into consideration... but probably not enough. It's better than just looking at yards or just looking at interception ratios or net adjusted yards or something.

But there's no way to put some grading system together that isn't flawed. Ultimately, you've got to let them play and settle it on the field.

I come from a math background. I'm going to trust numbers over opinions, but I know that just numbers don't tell the complete story.
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Quoted for truth.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Except... technically... it's not a stat. It's an averaged group of subjective opinions. Someone is out there grading plays by player X based on what they think a non-existent player Y would have done in the same situation.

That's why I don't trust it. Or DVOA "stats." They're presented as stats when they're not.

Now, passer rating is flawed as well, but at least it takes a few different things into consideration... but probably not enough. It's better than just looking at yards or just looking at interception ratios or net adjusted yards or something.

But there's no way to put some grading system together that isn't flawed. Ultimately, you've got to let them play and settle it on the field.

I come from a math background. I'm going to trust numbers over opinions, but I know that just numbers don't tell the complete story.
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Sure there's flaws, but any stat or group of stats that can give a better indication of how you compare teams or players than saying team A has the #1 defense because they give up the fewest yards, I'll take that all day every day. DVOA takes a **** ton more into account and gives you a better indication of overall performance. Same with QBR vs passer rating. Not the end all be all, just better indicators. Just like batting average in baseball tells you one thing, but OPS tells you a little more.

Stats help tell the story. They aren't the story.
 
Speedy said:
Sure there's flaws, but any stat or group of stats that can give a better indication of how you compare teams or players than saying team A has the #1 defense because they give up the fewest yards, I'll take that all day every day. DVOA takes a **** ton more into account and gives you a better indication of overall performance. Same with QBR vs passer rating. Not the end all be all, just better indicators. Just like batting average in baseball tells you one thing, but OPS tells you a little more.

Stats help tell the story. They aren't the story.
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Exactly, they aren't the whole story and DVOA while a useful tool in evals dont paint a true picture. Look at the DVOA's during the BOB era. They didn't compute do to hidden yds/ST's/getting big stops at crucial times in games etc....
 
steelbtexan said:
Exactly, they aren't the whole story and DVOA while a useful tool in evals dont paint a true picture. Look at the DVOA's during the BOB era. They didn't compute do to hidden yds/ST's/getting big stops at crucial times in games etc....
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I may not remember correctly, but I thought the DVOA during BO'b era said we were a bad team, even though we were winning.

In other words, the DVOA was more accurate than W/L
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Except... technically... it's not a stat. It's an averaged group of subjective opinions. Someone is out there grading plays by player X based on what they think a non-existent player Y would have done in the same situation.

That's why I don't trust it. Or DVOA "stats." They're presented as stats when they're not.

Now, passer rating is flawed as well, but at least it takes a few different things into consideration... but probably not enough. It's better than just looking at yards or just looking at interception ratios or net adjusted yards or something.

But there's no way to put some grading system together that isn't flawed. Ultimately, you've got to let them play and settle it on the field.

I come from a math background. I'm going to trust numbers over opinions, but I know that just numbers don't tell the complete story.
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I agree. Keep the acronyms. And I think DC and Lovie are spot on. Eliminate penalties, don’t put the ball on the ground and win the takeaway battle. All three are momentum changers that no acronym can capture.
 
thunderkyss said:
I may not remember correctly, but I thought the DVOA during BO'b era said we were a bad team, even though we were winning.

In other words, the DVOA was more accurate than W/L
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The poor DVOA, specifically under BO'b, and specifically on offense was an indicator not that the Texans were a bad team necessarily, but something was broken within the offense. And we all know what that broken thing was.

That said, the Texans are currently 16th in DVOA on offense with a total of +2.4%. Rushing however is 26th in the NFL, absolutely no surprise there. Last season they finished last in rushing DVOA. That was way down from 2019 when they were 17th rushing DVOA. But in 2018 they were 28th.

The Texans haven't run the ball well in a long time. It's been a big problem since Arian Foster's prime years were behind him. They've had opportunities to improve in that area, and you'd think with as how badly O'Brien wanted to run the ball they would have jumped at those opportunities but they didn't. They didn't draft road graders for the line nor did they draft running backs early. So far this year the Texans are 31st in second level yards at 0.62. That's worse than last year when they finished last in that category with 0.94 yards.

The outlook for the offense is shockingly bad when I really start digging. Up until today, my opinions/observations were based on surface level stuff. I've been focusing on the talent deficits at the skilled positions. But the line, if the Texans are to want to ever run the ball effectively again, has to be revamped in a big way.
 
thunderkyss said:
I may not remember correctly, but I thought the DVOA during BO'b era said we were a bad team, even though we were winning.

In other words, the DVOA was more accurate than W/L
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That can be explained by our win loss record against teams above or below .500 We were very effective at beating teams under .500. Above .500 not at all.
 
banned1976 said:
The poor DVOA, specifically under BO'b, and specifically on offense was an indicator not that the Texans were a bad team necessarily, but something was broken within the offense. And we all know what that broken thing was.

That said, the Texans are currently 16th in DVOA on offense with a total of +2.4%. Rushing however is 26th in the NFL, absolutely no surprise there. Last season they finished last in rushing DVOA. That was way down from 2019 when they were 17th rushing DVOA. But in 2018 they were 28th.

The Texans haven't run the ball well in a long time. It's been a big problem since Arian Foster's prime years were behind him. They've had opportunities to improve in that area, and you'd think with as how badly O'Brien wanted to run the ball they would have jumped at those opportunities but they didn't. They didn't draft road graders for the line nor did they draft running backs early. So far this year the Texans are 31st in second level yards at 0.62. That's worse than last year when they finished last in that category with 0.94 yards.

The outlook for the offense is shockingly bad when I really start digging. Up until today, my opinions/observations were based on surface level stuff. I've been focusing on the talent deficits at the skilled positions. But the line, if the Texans are to want to ever run the ball effectively again, has to be revamped in a big way.
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But.. but
We have talents added in Britt and Cannon. :runaway:
 
76Texan said:
Right.
You don't trust the QBR either.
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I would trust the QBR. It can go down with a poor game, and up on an individual good game. In the long term, it is the best reflection of a QB's individual performance. But in the article posted, the QB ranking numbers have been "contaminated" with 40% made up of PFF (which I have always found to be suspect) and with 20% made up of passer rating (which is a poor reflection of a QB's individual performance).
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
I would trust the QBR. It can go down with a poor game, and up on an individual good game. In the long term, it is the best reflection of a QB's individual performance. But in the article posted, the QB ranking numbers have been "contaminated" with 40% made up of PFF (which I have always found to be suspect) and with 20% made up of passer rating (which is a poor reflection of a QB's individual performance).
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I don't trust any of them whole heartedly.
 
We got a solid hold on 2nd place this week. Three weeks into the season and we're not in last place because Jacksonville continues to be Jacksonville and Indy just sucks this year. How in the hell can we expect to even sniff a top draft choice like this? Christ almighty a frigging high school team could win this division.
 
Thorn said:
We got a solid hold on 2nd place this week. Three weeks into the season and we're not in last place because Jacksonville continues to be Jacksonville and Indy just sucks this year. How in the hell can we expect to even sniff a top draft choice like this? Christ almighty a frigging high school team could win this division.
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Texans have the worst luck. Even when they try to tank things don’t go their way.
 
Titans' Julio Jones left the game with what Vrabel said "Jones had something get “tight” physically." Jones has had repeated hamstring tears over the year. He missed the last 4 games of last season with a hamstring tear. At almost 32 years old and with his hamstring history, I expect that he will continue to be dogged by this injury. "Tightness of something " heralds bad things. Certainly, Vrabel better let him rest/rehab longer than what he thinks he needs.
 
thunderkyss said:
Sounds pretty fair & reasonable to me.
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How's that sound fair and reasonable to the Texans.

Their complaint being that he's taking up a roster spot -

What choice do the Texans have - They can do what they are doing and maintain the ability to get some compensation eventually .... Or they can cut him and pay him $159m to free up that roster spot and get absolutely no compensation.


Seems to me the Texans are making the best of a bad situation.
 
Texian said:
View attachment 9095
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Late last night I drew out a proposal that Watson goes to Philly for their three round 1s in 2022 which could be all in top 10. And possibly then trading 1.1 Houston's own pick to the New York Giants for their two round ones.

Of course movement in rank could happen. For example Colt's owner will not let Wentz continue to start and team lose so that will impact that round one of 75% snaps. Exception could be Wentz looks good but not great, team loses but still meets 75 % same as I predicted for Taylor.

Positives are no players involved and trades shouldn’t be completed until offseason. Perhaps more clarity on DW issue.
 
badboy said:
Late last night I drew out a proposal that Watson goes to Philly for their three round 1s in 2022 which could be all in top 10. And possibly then trading 1.1 Houston's own pick to the New York Giants for their two round ones.

Of course movement in rank could happen. For example Colt's owner will not let Wentz continue to start and team lose so that will impact that round one of 75% snaps. Exception could be Wentz looks good but not great, team loses but still meets 75 % same as I predicted for Taylor.

Positives are no players involved and trades shouldn’t be completed until offseason. Perhaps more clarity on DW issue.
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I feel like Hurts is playing well enough that Philly will use their 3 picks to build around him versus sending those picks to the Texans for Watson.

Jones is still a big question mark for the Giants b/c he simply doesn’t seem prepared to take the next step. He’ll get 14 more games…maybe…to prove he deserves to keep his starting gig. Giants have (2) RD1’s in 2022 which could be a great starting point in getting a Watson deal done.

The Dolphins could be in the hunt with their current failure at the QB position. They have the team that‘s ready to compete right now. If the Dolphins get hungry enough, in their current win now window, they could get anxious enough to make a move for Watson before the trade deadline. Of course, this potential trade may depend on Goodell allowing Watson to play until more clarity on his court dates are made known. If Watson could get some type of assurance for 2021 and the majority of 2022…..they may be willing to make a deal.

Atlanta may be a sleeper but that wouldn’t happen until the 2022 off-season.
 
Texansballer74 said:
I’m listening to 610 and they’re reading some book that says Bill O’Brien was trying to get fired back in 2017.
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According to this book about the Patriots dynasty. When Josh McDaniels was going to take the Colts' job, O'Brien wanted to get fired to take the Patriots OC job and then become HC when Belichick retires. So, his people started whispering to the media about his issues with Rick Smith. O'Brien thought the McNairs would side with Smith and fire him. However, in typical McNair fashion, Smith took a leave and O'Brien got more power.

Based on all of the media reports in December 2017, there might be some truth to that book.

Bill O'Brien Reportedly Prepared to Leave Texans If GM Rick Smith Stays | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

Report: Bill O'Brien, Rick Smith Have 'Toxic' and 'Dysfunctional' Relationship | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

Texans in turmoil: Relationship between coach Bill O'Brien, GM Rick Smith called 'toxic' (houstonchronicle.com)

Tension Between Texans? Rick Smith & Bill O'Brien Beef - YouTube
 
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CloakNNNdagger said:
Texans’ running game stuck in neutral
By Aaron WilsonSep 28, 2021

When the Texans built this roster, they did so with the intention of having a vibrant running game.

THE WHOLE STORY
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This doesn’t bother me at all. It’s to be expected at this point of the turnaround. For me the main objective is to get the system installed. The Texans are adamant about establishing the run to set up the pass on O and creating getting takeaways created by sacks and pressure by the DL. How did that work for Dallas Monday night? I’m with Britt on this one. Just give it time and keep working on it. It’s like building the border of a jigsaw puzzle first then start finding the pieces to finish it. I already can’t wait for next years draft. Until then we just have to roll with what we got and find out this year what we got in our young players.
 
Dejaview said:
This doesn’t bother me at all. It’s to be expected at this point of the turnaround. For me the main objective is to get the system installed. The Texans are adamant about establishing the run to set up the pass on O and creating getting takeaways created by sacks and pressure by the DL. How did that work for Dallas Monday night? I’m with Britt on this one. Just give it time and keep working on it. It’s like building the border of a jigsaw puzzle first then start finding the pieces to finish it. I already can’t wait for next years draft. Until then we just have to roll with what we got and find out this year what we got in our young players.
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Agree.
You can't expect miracles with a rebuild including new coaches and the loss of your two QBs.
 
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