I was replying to this quote when there were no talking heads involved
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- Thread starter Wolf
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I was replying to this quote when there were no talking heads involved
The context of that post goes back, if you go back to the beginning, to the talking heads.
I did not pay attention to other things.
I was simply responding to that particular question.
But you didn't set the spread at 13. None of your reasoning explains why the line was set at 13. You were explai.... nvm.
The way I understand, after watching a special series on the Vegas book-makers and reading a few articles on the matter, the way the line is set nowadays is more scientific, but it still relies on the bookmaker's experience.
They have the experience and the feel of how the general bettors may see (now; they are not right all the time, but they are far from novices.)
Remember that the original line was set at 12 or 12-1/2, I don't remember exactly.
It was moved up to 13-13.5, usually on the betting money swaying toward the Browns.
Here's the sentiment of a pro pick (not that they are all that good, but it can explain the sentiment):
"If taking the spread, the Browns are still the ideal play at -12.5. While the number is definitely high, ..."
So that goes back to the original statement. The general belief was that the Texans were way overmatched, even with Beckham out. The game showed it wasn't as far as people believed. I mean if one WR kills their talent superiority, then their talent wasn't really all that superior. That's what was being argued.
It has always been true that the general belief is way too low regarding the Texans.
If we're going to play the what if game, What if TT stays healthy? The Texans probably win that game.
Did not see this post.
Weren't talking about the game; just how the house set the bet.
TK and I
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
The QBR should take those sorts of things into account, I mean, it's someone looking at the play and making a judgment about where the QBs performance on that play was above or below average. I mean it's not passer rating which is a formula just based on the numbers without taking the context into account.
Does it take this into account:
1 13:30 2 5 HTX 41 Davis Mills pass complete short left to Mark Ingram for -1 yards (tackle by Shaq Thompson)
Hey, it's a completion.
paycheck71
Hall of Fame
Does it take this into account:
1 13:30 2 5 HTX 41 Davis Mills pass complete short left to Mark Ingram for -1 yards (tackle by Shaq Thompson)
Hey, it's a completion.
Here's a couple of links to how it's calculated. Nothing is perfect, but IMO this is way more indicative of a QB's play than the passer rating.
How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our quarterback rating
Although not perfect, the metric incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions. Check out what goes into the computations.
www.espn.com
How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our (improved) QB rating
Performance matters. Performance against strong opponents matters more, which is why we've adjusted our Total QBR metrics to account for good defenses.
www.espn.com
I can see many flaws.Here's a couple of links to how it's calculated. Nothing is perfect, but IMO this is way more indicative of a QB's play than the passer rating.
How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our quarterback rating
Although not perfect, the metric incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions. Check out what goes into the computations.How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our (improved) QB rating
Performance matters. Performance against strong opponents matters more, which is why we've adjusted our Total QBR metrics to account for good defenses.
I've seen them before.Here's a couple of links to how it's calculated. Nothing is perfect, but IMO this is way more indicative of a QB's play than the passer rating.
How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our quarterback rating
Although not perfect, the metric incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions. Check out what goes into the computations.How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our (improved) QB rating
Performance matters. Performance against strong opponents matters more, which is why we've adjusted our Total QBR metrics to account for good defenses.
There are so many flaws in them , I don't think it's of much use.
paycheck71
Hall of Fame
Right. Nothing is perfect. I just said that I like QBR more than passer rating.
I've never been a believer in the "eyeball test" and "gut feel", so the other 2 things I'm aware of that we can try to rely on is PFF rating (I know may people hate it) and Football Outsiders DVOA (or whatever they have for individual players).
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Does it take this into account:
1 13:30 2 5 HTX 41 Davis Mills pass complete short left to Mark Ingram for -1 yards (tackle by Shaq Thompson)
Hey, it's a completion.
ESPN says it does, but it's all a judgment call and I have no idea who's making that judgment. At least with numbers, you can have a formula to tweak and it's not just an opinion.
EDIT: I didn't see paycheck71's response when I posted this.
Let's say we play the Packers at the Tundra in dead winter on a stormy day.
The Colts play another team in the dome.
Does the formula take that into account?
Let's take a quick look at the first few paragraphs of this article.
How is Total QBR calculated? We explain our (improved) QB rating
Performance matters. Performance against strong opponents matters more, which is why we've adjusted our Total QBR metrics to account for good defenses.
www.espn.com
They admit they can only estimate the strength of a defense/offense at the beginning of the season.
So right there, we know that the formula is not accurate at this time.
Next, it talks about the home field advantage.
Obviously, they couldn't take into account the effects of Covid, which might be different in different regions.
Or say, how the last hurricane may affect attendance at the Superdome.
It doesn't take into accounts the fact that the Saints were without several coaches/personnels.
Just to name a few things I can think of.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Passer rating doesn't take that into account. It doesn't account for differing conditions or different opponents. It doesn't take into account how good or bad the pass protection is or how good or bad the receivers are.
But it also doesn't allow you to be blinded by your own biases.
One of the problems with QBR (as opposed to passer rating) is that someone is looking at a player and then giving them a grade on how well they performed while knowing who they are. Someone like a Rodgers is going to be cut slack on some plays just because they're Rodgers. If mistakes are made, the person assigning the grade is going to shift the blame to someone else, even if that's not right, and even though they might not make those allowances for other players. Two players making exactly the same play with the same outcome against the same opponent may not be graded the same way. I have the same problem with the Football Outsider's grading "system."
I get that numbers and stats like the Passer Rating don't tell the whole story, but a subjective system like QBR or Football Outsiders DVOA is only a little more useful than draft grades or power rankings.
IMO.
EDIT:
I think we're confusing terms here. When I talk about a "formula" based on statistics, I'm talking about Passer Rating. The article about QBR is about QBR, not Passer Rating. You're talking about that "formula." For me, if it's not just using numbers, then it's not a formula. QBR is closer to what you say you want, which is something that tries to take non-numeric things into account, even though you don't think it's taking everything into account.
banned1976
sleeper mode
The Texans history in one sentence - play pretty good on defense for 3 quarters while the offense sputters around on the field.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
Personally, I like the eye test first. I’d use stats second to confirm what my eyes are seeing.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Nico Collins played the second most snaps at WR in week 1. He got hurt after two snaps in week 2 (made a nice 32 yard catch).
Then Conley has played 90% plus snaps and done absolutely nothing. He received one target last game that would have been a defensive PI had he remembered to turn around and attempt to catch it.
Nico can’t get healthy soon enough. Conley is just a glorified blocker right now and this offense needs someone who can make plays when given the opportunity. Conley is on the field almost every play but you wont notice until you see the snap counts post game.
Then Conley has played 90% plus snaps and done absolutely nothing. He received one target last game that would have been a defensive PI had he remembered to turn around and attempt to catch it.
Nico can’t get healthy soon enough. Conley is just a glorified blocker right now and this offense needs someone who can make plays when given the opportunity. Conley is on the field almost every play but you wont notice until you see the snap counts post game.
The stat geeks also don't take into account that Collins and Amendola weren't playing.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
It would be nice to see him at Buffalo.
******************************************************************************************
Texans' Scottie Phillips was active for special-teams reasons
By Aaron WilsonSep 24, 2021
Scottie Phillips' determined, downhill running style allowed him to buck the odds to forge a spot on the Texans’ roster as the fifth running back.
It was because of a need on special teams that Phillips was active for the first time this season Thursday night against the Carolina Panthers during a loss at NRG Stadium
Phillips played seven snaps, all on special teams, against Carolina.
Although the Texans rushed for just 42 yards on 17 carries against the Panthers and averaged an ineffectual 2.5 yards per carry, Phillips wasn't under consideration for duties in the running game.
"That had nothing to do with it," Texans coach David Culley said Friday morning at NRG Stadium. "It was strictly a special teams deal because of some other people we had hurt that had been special teams players for us. Scottie has been one of those guys that during the preseason that did a good job on that and because of the roster spots it worked out that he was the best fit for us to move up. But it had nothing to do with the running backs. It was strictly a situation where he came up simply because of what we needed on special teams.”
THE REST OF THE STORY
So take those single game stats, early season, with a grain of salt; like I said.
I always say stats have to have meaningful context; and there's just no way to take into accounts with this particular stats.
One small step at a time.
It would be nice to see him at Buffalo.
******************************************************************************************
Texans' Scottie Phillips was active for special-teams reasons
By Aaron WilsonSep 24, 2021
Scottie Phillips' determined, downhill running style allowed him to buck the odds to forge a spot on the Texans’ roster as the fifth running back.
It was because of a need on special teams that Phillips was active for the first time this season Thursday night against the Carolina Panthers during a loss at NRG Stadium
Phillips played seven snaps, all on special teams, against Carolina.
Although the Texans rushed for just 42 yards on 17 carries against the Panthers and averaged an ineffectual 2.5 yards per carry, Phillips wasn't under consideration for duties in the running game.
"That had nothing to do with it," Texans coach David Culley said Friday morning at NRG Stadium. "It was strictly a special teams deal because of some other people we had hurt that had been special teams players for us. Scottie has been one of those guys that during the preseason that did a good job on that and because of the roster spots it worked out that he was the best fit for us to move up. But it had nothing to do with the running backs. It was strictly a situation where he came up simply because of what we needed on special teams.”
THE REST OF THE STORY
At least, he'll get a better pay check.
Beat PS money.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
He's been on he 53 man roster, not practice squad. He's been getting a better paycheck. Thursday was just the 1st time he was on the active game day roster.
Overall, have you known QBR to be completely wrong about a QB in relation to his peers in his era?
In other words, is there a case where QBR puts a Jameis Winston ahead of a Ryan Tannehill?
That's not an easy question to answer, but let's take a stab at it, shall we?
2020 NFL Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN
Visit ESPN to view NFL Total QBR for the current and previous seasons
www.espn.com
Brady was 9th in QBR.
He was ranked 2nd by both PFF and NFL QB Index
QB Index: Ranking the 59 starting quarterbacks of the 2020 NFL season
NFL.com editors evaluated every quarterback who started a game (including the playoffs) during the 2020 NFL season to create a complete ranking from 1 to 59. Did winning Super Bowl LV give Tom Brady enough juice to knock MVP Aaron Rodgers from the top spo
www.nfl.com
Mahomes and Watson were not unanimous.
Allen was 3rd in QBR; he was ranked 5th by both those entities.
Fitz was 5th in QBR; he was ranked 18th and 21st respectively.
I guess I just stop right there.
Edit:
Just one more:
Brees QBR 6th; ranked 20th and 19th
Number19
Hall of Fame
I was wondering the same. How divergent is Passer Rating when compared to QBR?
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Passer rating only factors completion percentage, yards, TD and INT. That's it. QBR takes a whole host of other factors into account.
Number19
Hall of Fame
The only thing is, QBR and Passer Rating are what is most commonly used in the media and generally known by the public.That's not an easy question to answer, but let's take a stab at it, shall we?
2020 NFL Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN
Visit ESPN to view NFL Total QBR for the current and previous seasons
Brady was 9th in QBR.
He was ranked 2nd by both PFF and NFL QB Index
QB Index: Ranking the 59 starting quarterbacks of the 2020 NFL season
NFL.com editors evaluated every quarterback who started a game (including the playoffs) during the 2020 NFL season to create a complete ranking from 1 to 59. Did winning Super Bowl LV give Tom Brady enough juice to knock MVP Aaron Rodgers from the top spo
Mahomes and Watson were not unanimous.
Allen was 3rd in QBR; he was ranked 5th by both those entities.
Fitz was 5th in QBR; he was ranked 18th and 21st respectively.
I guess I just stop right there.
Edit:
Just one more:
Brees QBR 6th; ranked 20th and 19th
Simply, pick one or two rankings, build a spread sheet, and week by week you can observe how a player is moving compared to his peers, within that particular rating.
Number19
Hall of Fame
That's what I'm gathering from comments. There appears to be some subjectivity to QBR. My background being in engineering, I prefer hard statistics. Short term there would be discrepancy, but the more games played, the statistics would tend to average out.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Total quarterback rating - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Number19
Hall of Fame
Passer rating or QBR? Your question is subjective; and Fitz has been a starter.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Thanks. I've built a simple little spreadsheet for both passer rating and QBR, for only the eight rookie quarterbacks.
Clearly, Jones starting for New England will have advantages that Mills starting for the Texans will not have.
But this will be one factor to help decide whether the Texans need to use their first pick in next years draft on a QB, or whether we can go with Mills for at least one more year.
Clearly, Jones starting for New England will have advantages that Mills starting for the Texans will not have.
But this will be one factor to help decide whether the Texans need to use their first pick in next years draft on a QB, or whether we can go with Mills for at least one more year.
Number19
Hall of Fame
As a bridge qb, yes, I wouldn't mind having Fitz under center. But long term, of course not; he's at the end of his 17 year career. If the choice is between Fitz and Mills, I'd go with Mills.QBR.
The question is "do you wanna"?
See, there's the flaw with QBR.
You don't trust it.
Do you really want to pay Fitz 10M (6M guaranteed) to be your bridge QB?
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
Where is our QB ranked?
Through 2 games, TT was 3rd in a combination ranking.
NFL's Top QBs after Week 2: PFF, QBR, Passer Rating Formula - Vikings Territory
Vikings Territory is the leading source of local/independent Minnesota Vikings news, opinion, analysis and content! New content daily!
vikingsterritory.com
Hey, he saw 7 ST snaps on Thursday.
Then no. But if I had the 28th ranked guy, I'd rather Fitz. It's really that simple.Through 2 games, TT was 3rd in a combination ranking.
NFL's Top QBs after Week 2: PFF, QBR, Passer Rating Formula - Vikings Territory
Vikings Territory is the leading source of local/independent Minnesota Vikings news, opinion, analysis and content! New content daily!
Right.
You don't trust the QBR either.