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Sentiment Check: Which QB Are You Selecting With The #1.2 Overall Pick (March 8, 2023)

If You Were GM, Which QB Are You Selecting With The #1.2 Overall Pick

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JB said:
That's why he's known as JSN
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And if he ever appears on Game Show Network they can bill it as JSN on GSN. Or if he goes on to sell some crap nobody needs, it can be JSN on HSN. Or if he ever defects to Canada, he can become a sports anchor and be JSN on TSN.
 
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Caught a few minutes of Clint Stoerner on my way back from a friend's today. Paraphrasing:

Six round ones in three years to get franchise QB and first of those are gone. 2023 no QB at 2, you better get hell of a haul trading down with at least one first in 2024. "Absolutely no Tyree or WA at 1.2".

All comment now about AZ getting huge offers at 3 therefore Nick better have an out of this world trade deal.
 
badboy said:
Caught a few minutes of Clint Stoerner on my way back from a friend's today. Paraphrasing:

Six round ones in three years to get franchise QB and first of those are gone. 2023 no QB at 2, you better get hell of a haul trading down with at least one first in 2024. "Absolutely no Tyree or WA at 1.2".

All comment now about AZ getting huge offers at 3 therefore Nick better have an out of this world trade deal.
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Sounds like people are convinced Texans are passing on QB at 1.2 and wanting to deal with AZ. No need to trade to 2 if you can trade less and get to 3.
 
Texansphan said:
Smoke and mirrors.
Arizona doesn't need to trade up.
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I think he was talking about trading up to number 3 would cost teams below that less than trading up to number 2 for the same player.

A team like Raiders should have an agreement in place with AZ but better not leak a drop until the Nick pick. If Indy thinks LVR gets their QB at 3, then Indy may decide to not wait until 1.4. Playing poker at it's finest.

I think it's interesting that comments are being made that pick two has no trade value as Texans may not go quarterback.
 
badboy said:
I think he was talking about trading up to number 3 would cost teams below that less than trading up to number 2 for the same player.

A team like Raiders should have an agreement in place with AZ but better not leak a drop until the Nick pick. If Indy thinks LVR gets their QB at 3, then Indy may decide to not wait until 1.4. Playing poker at it's finest.

I think it's interesting that comments are being made that pick two has no trade value as Texans may not go quarterback.
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I think it's about 90% that Texans go QB and about 75% of that is leaning Stroud and I'm fine with that.
After much deliberation and toing and froing, I (think) I have finalized my Texans mock - who I think they take.
It's in my sig.
 
badboy said:
I think he was talking about trading up to number 3 would cost teams below that less than trading up to number 2 for the same player.

A team like Raiders should have an agreement in place with AZ but better not leak a drop until the Nick pick. If Indy thinks LVR gets their QB at 3, then Indy may decide to not wait until 1.4. Playing poker at it's finest.

I think it's interesting that comments are being made that pick two has no trade value as Texans may not go quarterback.
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Interesting indeed....if the Colts think the Raiders are willing to jump them by trading into the 3 slot, then a lot of that may depend on how the Cardinals view the available players at the 7 slot. My guess, both Will Anderson Jr and Tyree Wilson are at the top of the Cardinals board and trade down to 7 would certainly take both off the board. If the Raiders are hail-bent on either Young or Stroud, then they should be dealing with the Texans who could certainly take one of those QB's. The problem; the Raiders don't have the draft capital for that kind of jump so if I were Caserio, I would ask for their 7 pick, DE- Maxx Crosby, and their 2024 RD1.

On the other hand, it would kill the Colts to have to come knocking on the Texans door for the 2 pick. The only way I'd help a division rival....ask for non-negotiable haul of draft capital. Let's see how bad the Colts want Young or Stroud.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Interesting indeed....if the Colts think the Raiders are willing to jump them by trading into the 3 slot, then a lot of that may depend on how the Cardinals view the available players at the 7 slot. My guess, both Will Anderson Jr and Tyree Wilson are at the top of the Cardinals board and trade down to 7 would certainly take both off the board. If the Raiders are hail-bent on either Young or Stroud, then they should be dealing with the Texans who could certainly take one of those QB's. The problem; the Raiders don't have the draft capital for that kind of jump so if I were Caserio, I would ask for their 7 pick, DE- Maxx Crosby, and their 2024 RD1.

On the other hand, it would kill the Colts to have to come knocking on the Texans door for the 2 pick. The only way I'd help a division rival....ask for non-negotiable haul of draft capital. Let's see how bad the Colts want Young or Stroud.
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Look again at maxx crosby's contract. he is extremely good but extremely expensive. Also almost every mock now that I see has seattle at five taking carter.
 
badboy said:
I think he was talking about trading up to number 3 would cost teams below that less than trading up to number 2 for the same player.

A team like Raiders should have an agreement in place with AZ but better not leak a drop until the Nick pick. If Indy thinks LVR gets their QB at 3, then Indy may decide to not wait until 1.4. Playing poker at it's finest.

I think it's interesting that comments are being made that pick two has no trade value as Texans may not go quarterback.
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Yep, this was my angle. If teams are so sure that the Texans are passing on a QB, the right trade partner is Arizona because they can pay less in draft capital for the #3 pick than the #2 pick. The Texans might actually be forced to stick and pick. Lots of poker being played, but it feels like the Texans are not in the driver's seat right now in terms of trade leverage.
 
sandman said:
Yep, this was my angle. If teams are so sure that the Texans are passing on a QB, the right trade partner is Arizona because they can pay less in draft capital for the #3 pick than the #2 pick. The Texans might actually be forced to stick and pick. Lots of poker being played, but it feels like the Texans are not in the driver's seat right now in terms of trade leverage.
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I understand your point of view but just feel differently. Colts have to have a QB . Will they sit tight until Texans clock begins? How many teams willing to battle Indy for 3? Would Raiders make similar Panthers offer to Houston?
1. Young
2. Stroud to Raiders
3. Washington or ATL AR
3 Indy Levis? Uh uh.
 
badboy said:
I understand your point of view but just feel differently. Colts have to have a QB . Will they sit tight until Texans clock begins? How many teams willing to battle Indy for 3? Would Raiders make similar Panthers offer to Houston?
1. Young
2. Stroud to Raiders
3. Washington or ATL AR
3 Indy Levis? Uh uh.
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Sure, obviously we don't know. I was just trying to think about how much other teams are sold on the Texans not taking Stroud. No need to trade with the Texans if they aren't going to take the guy you want. Which is why I was saying Arizona in the third spot appears to be in the catbird seat.

But there is so much lack of consensus at the top of this draft that I have no idea what is going to happen. Even Young going first to Carolina.
 
sandman said:
But there is so much lack of consensus at the top of this draft that I have no idea what is going to happen. Even Young going first to Carolina.
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Agreed. But it appears now that all are assuming Young goes to Carolina and Houston will take Stroud. But what if Stroud goes to Carolina?
 
JB said:
Agreed. But it appears now that all are assuming Young goes to Carolina and Houston will take Stroud. But what if Stroud goes to Carolina?
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In that scenario, I think everyone is in consensus that the Texans run the Young pick up to the podium. Not saying everyone is in agreement, but rather that everyone has a high degree of confidence that is what Cal/Nick/DR will do.
 
I think it is highly likely that after all the hoopla, Carolina is still going to choose Stroud with their 1st pick. Everything since they traded up was just a way to pilfer additional picks from Houston trying to scare them to move up 1. Stroud is as good or better a QB prospect who doesn't have the size concerns that Young does. Couple in the fact that there is not any bad blood between that franchise and Strouds agent, I feel like he would make the most sense and be the safest selection for Carolina to make.

That leaves Houston to take the gamble. Do they allow their desperation for a QB to overlook Young's stature in favor of his skillset? Or will they capitalize on other QB needy teams and receive a haul of picks themselves?
 
sandman said:
In that scenario, I think everyone is in consensus that the Texans run the Young pick up to the podium. Not saying everyone is in agreement, but rather that everyone has a high degree of confidence that is what Cal/Nick/DR will do.
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So the #2 pick becomes very valuable... and the same if they think the Texans MIGHT pick Stroud if Young goes first. It all depends on what the other teams want. This might turn out being a year only 1 or 2 QB's go in the first round. As Caserio alluded, it's not going to go at all like people are thinking
 
sandman said:
Yep, this was my angle. If teams are so sure that the Texans are passing on a QB, the right trade partner is Arizona because they can pay less in draft capital for the #3 pick than the #2 pick. The Texans might actually be forced to stick and pick. Lots of poker being played, but it feels like the Texans are not in the driver's seat right now in terms of trade leverage.
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What happens if Vegas trades for 3? You know they are taking a QB then. If Arizona trades #3 the value of #2 just skyrocketed
 
theCATALYST said:
I think it is highly likely that after all the hoopla, Carolina is still going to choose Stroud with their 1st pick. Everything since they traded up was just a way to pilfer additional picks from Houston trying to scare them to move up 1. Stroud is as good or better a QB prospect who doesn't have the size concerns that Young does. Couple in the fact that there is not any bad blood between that franchise and Strouds agent, I feel like he would make the most sense and be the safest selection for Carolina to make.

That leaves Houston to take the gamble. Do they allow their desperation for a QB to overlook Young's stature in favor of his skillset? Or will they capitalize on other QB needy teams and receive a haul of picks themselves?
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If Stroud goes to Carolina does young bring greater trade package? I would think so.

Dang squirrel keeps stepping on my phone and i have to retype.
 
Xopher said:
What happens if Vegas trades for 3? You know they are taking a QB then. If Arizona trades #3 the value of #2 just skyrocketed
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Who has the dire QB need and the draft capital to do that? Indy? Are the Texans really going to do that business with a division rival? And if they do, what can they offer to go from #4 to #2? They only have one first rounder this year? Is swapping firsts and getting their second (#35) worth it? Or swapping this year and getting their first rounder next season? Both?
 
theCATALYST said:
I think it is highly likely that after all the hoopla, Carolina is still going to choose Stroud with their 1st pick. Everything since they traded up was just a way to pilfer additional picks from Houston trying to scare them to move up 1. Stroud is as good or better a QB prospect who doesn't have the size concerns that Young does. Couple in the fact that there is not any bad blood between that franchise and Strouds agent, I feel like he would make the most sense and be the safest selection for Carolina to make.

That leaves Houston to take the gamble. Do they allow their desperation for a QB to overlook Young's stature in favor of his skillset? Or will they capitalize on other QB needy teams and receive a haul of picks themselves?
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I almost 100 percent think this has always been the case.

And it's always coming down to "do we take Young, do we try to get out of it, or do we have the balls to not take a QB."

I guess the safest bet is to presume we'd take Young in that situation.
 
sandman said:
Who has the dire QB need and the draft capital to do that? Indy? Are the Texans really going to do that business with a division rival? And if they do, what can they offer to go from #4 to #2? They only have one first rounder this year? Is swapping firsts and getting their second (#35) worth it? Or swapping this year and getting their first rounder next season? Both?
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If you don't think the QB is for you then who cares if you trade the pick to a division rival? If I swap with Indy it would be for 4, 35, 79 and next year's first. They can do it or not. They can risk getting the 4th overall QB or trade. Up to them. If the Colts trade to three then Vegas comes knocking. You also don't know who would trade up for 2 to get Will Anderson.
 
Xopher said:
If you don't think the QB is for you then who cares if you trade the pick to a division rival? If I swap with Indy it would be for 4, 35, 79 and next year's first. They can do it or not. They can risk getting the 4th overall QB or trade. Up to them. If the Colts trade to three then Vegas comes knocking. You also don't know who would trade up for 2 to get Will Anderson.
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I was going off your scenario that Vegas traded into the 3rd pick. Obviously there are a million scenarios that we can dissect ad nauseum.

As to Indy giving up all that draft capital to move two places? Stick at 4 and they are still getting a QB this draft. Maybe even a choice of two if the Texans stick and pick a DL. Not sure they see the desperation that you do in their position to hold them over the barrel for a king's ransom of picks. Might not be the one they truly wanted at #4, but they also might not see this QB class as one to mortgage the future on. From that perspective, better to risk the fourth pick than the second pick AND the loss of a lot of draft capital.

Not sure I've ever seen such a lack of clarity in draft like this. The what-ifs are limitless.
 
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Xopher said:
If you don't think the QB is for you then who cares if you trade the pick to a division rival? If I swap with Indy it would be for 4, 35, 79 and next year's first. They can do it or not. They can risk getting the 4th overall QB or trade. Up to them. If the Colts trade to three then Vegas comes knocking. You also don't know who would trade up for 2 to get Will Anderson.
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Exactly,

In fact I would take 1-4/2-35 and next years 1st. I'm not afraid of them drafting Stroud/Levis or Richardson. The Texans may have to throw in 4-103 to make this happen.
 
Interesting to see how people want a team built. I'm falling farther and farther into the trade back clan at #2 ,but

#2 Anderson
#12 Carter
#27 ish Hooker

looks great to me to.
 
I'm thinking Young is going to Carolina. We should either take Stroud if we feel he is the guy or trade it. At 12, take Hooker if he is available. Unless you don't think he is the one either.

We have only a few years that we have draft picks high enough for a top QB. Much as I like Will Anderson, I think we should trade to 4th or so and get some more picks. That is if we don't take Stroud. Allowing us to get another shot at a top pick in the future. Even if it's something like swap 1.2 for 1.5 through 1.7 and a 2nd round pick...maybe a late 1st. Not sure exactly how it would work but if done we would have enough draft capital to move up and get a top QB pretty much for 3 years via trading.
 
The1ApplePie said:
If you want polish, you go Stroud. If you want potential, you go Richardson. I can seen the appeal of Levis being kind of in a Goldilocks zone between the two, though IMO he is an inferior prospect to either.
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Absolutely inferior. His inaccuracy will only cause him to struggle in our scheme.
 
The1ApplePie said:
If you want polish, you go Stroud. If you want potential, you go Richardson. I can seen the appeal of Levis being kind of in a Goldilocks zone between the two, though IMO he is an inferior prospect to either.
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I’m starting to feel that it’s Hooker they are targeting. Nothing really out there telling me that. Just a huge hunch or intuition. My intuition is right much more often than it’s wrong. I think Hooker goes to Tenn at 11 if he is there. He is a fast riser by all accounts. He isn’t getting to 33.

Therefore I see a trade down to somewhere between 4-7 and they take Tyree Wilson. I think in Ryans hands he will be a beast. Then you turn around and use that extra draft capital to leapfrog the Tits and you draft Hooker.

All of this contingent on the Panthers selecting Bryce. If the Panthers pull a fast one and take CJ zero question at all that Bryce is a Texan but all indications are he is a Panther. I think for multiple reasons, they soured on CJ and this is plan C as it were but it’s a good plan c. Slowik and co. Will have Hooker ready to be the unquestioned starter going into 2024.
 
Porky said:
I’m starting to feel that it’s Hooker they are targeting. Nothing really out there telling me that. Just a huge hunch or intuition. My intuition is right much more often than it’s wrong. I think Hooker goes to Tenn at 11 if he is there. He is a fast riser by all accounts. He isn’t getting to 33.

Therefore I see a trade down to somewhere between 4-7 and they take Tyree Wilson. I think in Ryans hands he will be a beast. Then you turn around and use that extra draft capital to leapfrog the Tits and you draft Hooker.

All of this contingent on the Panthers selecting Bryce. If the Panthers pull a fast one and take CJ zero question at all that Bryce is a Texan but all indications are he is a Panther. I think for multiple reasons, they soured on CJ and this is plan C as it were but it’s a good plan c. Slowik and co. Will have Hooker ready to be the unquestioned starter going into 2024.
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Tyree is a better scheme fit than Anderson, so I agree with you. I also prefer Hooker to Levis, though I think he lags behind Stroud and Richardson.

In a dream scenario, someone falls in love with Levis and Stroud/Richardson fall closer to 12, at least in realistic trade up range.
 
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