Nico Collins is a legit WR 1

[Texansphan]

Ok I'll bite, my concern isn't Nico himself regressing per say but that teams and defenses will learn how he and CJ operate and be better able to disrupt it. I personally don't think CJ will have a big sophomore slump but fact is teams will learn better how to defend against him. With teams possibly better able to defend against CJ and Collins having to win more of his match ups can he do it? I very much hope he can.

Interesting Caserio was asked and spoke on this very topic:

'Focus On Free Agency': Texans GM Nick Caserio Discusses Nico Collins Contract Situation

Nico Collins could receive a new contract from the Houston Texans before the start of the year, but it won't come at least until after free agency.

www.si.com

"Right now we'll focus on the players who are free agents and then once we get through free agency and get a little deeper into the spring, we'll kind of see where we are relative to what our opportunities bring," said Caserio. "You've all seen our openness to a propensity to have discussions at any point, spring, training camp, during the season, mid-season, after the season so we'll see how it all goes."

Good to see that they willing to talk extension with people at anytime which is a nice change from how Texans have done business in the past.

Let them.
If they start doubling Nico, that creates opportunities for the other receiver/s.

 

[badboy]

Ok I'll bite, my concern isn't Nico himself regressing per say but that teams and defenses will learn how he and CJ operate and be better able to disrupt it. I personally don't think CJ will have a big sophomore slump but fact is teams will learn better how to defend against him. With teams possibly better able to defend against CJ and Collins having to win more of his match ups can he do it? I very much hope he can.

Interesting Caserio was asked and spoke on this very topic:

'Focus On Free Agency': Texans GM Nick Caserio Discusses Nico Collins Contract Situation

Nico Collins could receive a new contract from the Houston Texans before the start of the year, but it won't come at least until after free agency.

www.si.com

"Right now we'll focus on the players who are free agents and then once we get through free agency and get a little deeper into the spring, we'll kind of see where we are relative to what our opportunities bring," said Caserio. "You've all seen our openness to a propensity to have discussions at any point, spring, training camp, during the season, mid-season, after the season so we'll see how it all goes."

Good to see that they willing to talk extension with people at anytime which is a nice change from how Texans have done business in the past.

If others teams figure out how Nico and Cj operate {or other players}, wouldn't that be on our OC? I don't want to focus on if others can figure us out but that we remain ahead of them with adjustments and bringing new guys in to improve roster.

 

[TheRealJoker]

If others teams figure out how Nico and Cj operate {or other players}, wouldn't that be on our OC? I don't want to focus on if others can figure us out but that we remain ahead of them with adjustments and bringing new guys in to improve roster.

Agreed. Teams still haven’t quite figured out Davante Adams for example. Even with in-season coaching and QB changes he’s still going to catch 100+ balls/year.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

Ok I'll bite, my concern isn't Nico himself regressing per say but that teams and defenses will learn how he and CJ operate and be better able to disrupt it. I personally don't think CJ will have a big sophomore slump but fact is teams will learn better how to defend against him. With teams possibly better able to defend against CJ and Collins having to win more of his match ups can he do it? I very much hope he can.

Interesting Caserio was asked and spoke on this very topic:

'Focus On Free Agency': Texans GM Nick Caserio Discusses Nico Collins Contract Situation

Nico Collins could receive a new contract from the Houston Texans before the start of the year, but it won't come at least until after free agency.

www.si.com

"Right now we'll focus on the players who are free agents and then once we get through free agency and get a little deeper into the spring, we'll kind of see where we are relative to what our opportunities bring," said Caserio. "You've all seen our openness to a propensity to have discussions at any point, spring, training camp, during the season, mid-season, after the season so we'll see how it all goes."

Good to see that they willing to talk extension with people at anytime which is a nice change from how Texans have done business in the past.

The biggest plus for CJ and Nico.....CJ leads Nico with his throws. Defenders will find this difficult to defend as much in the future as it was this past season unless they find a way around his frame while outrunning him to the ball. If defenses try to double team him.....then Dell, a new WR, and Schultz should find their opportunities.

 

[leebigeztx]

Agreed. Teams still haven’t quite figured out Davante Adams for example. Even with in-season coaching and QB changes he’s still going to catch 100+ balls/year.

Yeah, they kinda force the ball his way. As I stated in this thread earlier, you don't have to force coverage to be a #1. Can you beat 1 v 1 coverage? Nico, Dell and the scheme have proven true. Who is the number 1 for 49ers? We know the te in KC is their #1. If they can up the run game that will dictate the coverage also.

 

[thunderkyss]

So if Mike Evans gets 2 years $52M what's that looking like for Nico?

$25M/yr sounds too high for me.

 

[leebigeztx]

So if Mike Evans gets 2 years $52M what's that looking like for Nico?

$25M/yr sounds too high for me.

If he has another year like last year, that's where it's gonna be. That's why I want Brian Thomas

 

[maverick512000]

If he has another year like last year, that's where it's gonna be. That's why I want Brian Thomas

If he has another year like last year then that's where it should be, key word is "if".

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

This why Nick c. is trying get Collins to negotiate this offer season so the Texans can Collins at ONLY 18-22 million or something.

 

[JB]

This why Nick c. is trying get Collins to negotiate this offer season so the Texans can Collins at ONLY 18-22 million or something.

Is he though?

 

[Porky]

Is he though?

Yes. They are ready to sign him now. They see him as their true #1 and are ready to lock him up.

 

[steelbtexan]

If he has another year like last year, that's where it's gonna be. That's why I want Brian Thomas

That's why I want them to extend him this off season and draft Thomas.

 

[JB]

Yes. They are ready to sign him now. They see him as their true #1 and are ready to lock him up.

Sure, but their focus right now is their free agents. They'll focus on Nico before next free agency

 

[leebigeztx]

That's why I want them to extend him this off season and draft Thomas.

Drafting Thomas if he's there solves a few issues honestly. Leverage against Collins contract this year, injury, and vs a 3rd contract. Drafting Thomas put him in the mix and it will reduce Collins asking price. If he's not as durable you let him walk or if he does have a good year, not as good, then you can extend at your price.

 

[Lucky]

That's why I want them to extend him this off season.

Agents generally don't let their clients extend when the contract has expired. Collins will become a FA if the Texans wait that long.

 

[Porky]

Believe the sources or not, but I've heard that the Texans want to lock up Collins pronto. Like during this offseason, and possibly as soon as post 2023 FA dies down.

 

[leebigeztx]

Agents generally don't let their clients extend when the contract has expired. Collins will become a FA if the Texans wait that long.

Philly under Reid made a living like this. They would pay early because a bird in the hand.

 

[badboy]

That's why I want them to extend him this off season and draft Thomas.

This is what I want them to do also and if they could get Collins for 18 million apy it would be a done deal in my opinion. Nico is going to be a great wide receiver. I posted before and I still think he will get closer to 25 than the 18. Thomas took edge from Troy Franklin for me at combine although I still like TF.

 

[badboy]

Drafting Thomas if he's there solves a few issues honestly. Leverage against Collins contract this year, injury, and vs a 3rd contract. Drafting Thomas put him in the mix and it will reduce Collins asking price. If he's not as durable you let him walk or if he does have a good year, not as good, then you can extend at your price.

if Nico has another year like 2023, I do not think having Thomas on board will encourage him to take less. There is just too much need for wide receivers in the nfl.

 

[badboy]

Believe the sources or not, but I've heard that the Texans want to lock up Collins pronto. Like during this offseason, and possibly as soon as post 2023 FA dies down.

that is my understanding also and the word I get is $25 million apy. I also think it would be a good move to sign a young dynamic player to show current players and free agents on other teams that Houston is a good place to work.

 

[leebigeztx]

if Nico has another year like 2023, I do not think having Thomas on board will encourage him to take less. There is just too much need for wide receivers in the nfl.

You would already have his replacement and get a compensation pick. Thing is that even if they draft Thomas, they can still pay Nico if they want. I like Nico especially if he can stay healthy. I think Thomas is a better version of Nico. I know for sure he's faster, but Nico made huge strides. You can have a version of the 98 Vikings until it's rime to pay CJ.

 

[badboy]

You would already have his replacement and get a compensation pick. Thing is that even if they draft Thomas, they can still pay Nico if they want. I like Nico especially if he can stay healthy. I think Thomas is a better version of Nico. I know for sure he's faster, but Nico made huge strides. You can have a version of the 98 Vikings until it's rime to pay CJ.

I do not want a Nico replacement but another Nico or better on the field with him. You also know that if he goes elsewhere, we are not automatically given a compensation pic.

 

[leebigeztx]

that is my understanding also and the word I get is $25 million apy. I also think it would be a good move to sign a young dynamic player to show current players and free agents on other teams that Houston is a good place to work.

Nah, Nico ain't getting that. I'm pretty certain that if they add a wr and Tank comes back, his numbers going down as is his price. Same will happen if Jameson Williams and LaPorta up their game.

 

[leebigeztx]

I do not want a Nico replacement but another Nico or better on the field with him. You also know that if he goes elsewhere, we are not automatically given a compensation pic.

If he's a free agent and Texans don't feel he's worth it and someone offers him 25m apy that's going to be a 3rd rd comp pick

 

[badboy]

Nah, Nico ain't getting that. I'm pretty certain that if they add a wr and Tank comes back, his numbers going down as is his price. Same will happen if Jameson Williams and LaPorta up their game.

I will happily be wrong on this one

 

[badboy]

If he's a free agent and Texans don't feel he's worth it and someone offers him 25m apy that's going to be a 3rd rd comp pick

Not if we bring in a comparable free agent that will off set.

 

[ATXtexanfan]

I don't see it with Nico, he's ok. Not worth mike Evans money

 

[leebigeztx]

Not if we bring in a comparable free agent that will off set.

Understood

 

[leebigeztx]

I don't see it with Nico, he's ok. Not worth mike Evans money

You just need to see it more. He played as good or better than Evans last year. Evans arc is flat, still a good player. 1k wrs are just as avg as 1k rbs especially with the extra game.

 

[steelbtexan]

You would already have his replacement and get a compensation pick. Thing is that even if they draft Thomas, they can still pay Nico if they want. I like Nico especially if he can stay healthy. I think Thomas is a better version of Nico. I know for sure he's faster, but Nico made huge strides. You can have a version of the 98 Vikings until it's rime to pay CJ.

Man, we're thinking a like.

Stroud throwing to Collins/Tank/Thomas would be really fun to watch and solve a lot of the RZ issues.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

If Dell is going to take away Nico's yards b/c he's healthy.....then by reasoning, wouldn't the same happen to any WR walking through the door?

At this time Collins is the Texans WR1 and needs to be re-signed. CJ, Nico, and Dell have great chemistry.....so the team must keep it together. I'd like to add a solid complimentary piece to the equation....be it a veteran SWR or finding that piece in the draft.

 

[steelbtexan]

If Dell is going to take away Nico's yards b/c he's healthy.....then by reasoning, wouldn't the same happen to any WR walking through the door?

Me, Collins is the Texans WR1 and he needs to be re-signed. CJ, Nico, and Dell have great chemistry.....so keep it together. So, I'd like to add a solid complimentary piece to the equation....be it a veteran SWR or finding that piece in the draft.

Or adding both in FAand the draft.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

Or adding both in FAand the draft.

I'm really liking Luke McCaffrey (Rice) as that perfect complimentary piece for the Slot and this group. Still not sure who I'd like to see them sign as a FA.

 

[Texansphan]

Or adding both in FAand the draft.

Take a flyer on a speedster who can take the top off the defense down the seam.
I remember how dangerous Texans looked with Will Fuller on the field.

 

[Speedy]

If Dell is going to take away Nico's yards b/c he's healthy.....then by reasoning, wouldn't the same happen to any WR walking through the door?

I don’t see why anybody thinks yards are going to be taken away from anybody. There’s going to be 4,500+ yards to go around. Plenty to have a couple of 1,000 yard receivers. Jaylen Waddle doesn’t takeaway from Tyreek Hill. Devonta Smith doesn’t take away from AJ Brown. Godwin doesn’t take away from Evans. Plenty of yards to go around for 2 good receivers.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

I don’t see why anybody thinks yards are going to be taken away from anybody. There’s going to be 4,500+ yards to go around. Plenty to have a couple of 1,000 yard receivers. Jaylen Waddle doesn’t takeaway from Tyreek Hill. Devonta Smith doesn’t take away from AJ Brown. Godwin doesn’t take away from Evans. Plenty of yards to go around for 2 good receivers.

I concur. My reply was to another post.

 

[sandman]

Nah, Nico ain't getting that. I'm pretty certain that if they add a wr and Tank comes back, his numbers going down as is his price. Same will happen if Jameson Williams and LaPorta up their game.

Through Week 13 (Game 12) they had played together in 10 games (both missing one game). In the final 5 games when Tank was on IR, Nico played in four of those games with 20 receptions.

Nico was averaging 5 catches a game before Tank went out. He was averaging 5 catches a game after Tank went out.

Not sure of the validity of the argument that having Tank for a full season will take away from his numbers.

Even if we consider another WR... they had other WRs this past season. Even a functional TE. Nico was only targeted 109 times in 15 games, which is well below what other WR1 in the league are targeted.

 

[Lucky]

Nico was only targeted 109 times in 15 games, which is well below what other WR1 in the league are targeted.

What's crazy is that Collins caught 80 passes with these 109 targets. That's 73% at over 16 yards/completion. That's insane. Some RBs out of the backfield don't get to 73%. Tyreek Hill didn't have a catch % that high. Justin Jefferson has never had a catch % that high. Sure, Stroud had more than something to do with that. But someone has to catch the pass. And I'm damn certain no one in this draft has better hands than Nico Collins.

 

[Porky]

What's crazy is that Collins caught 80 passes with these 109 targets. That's 73% at over 16 yards/completion. That's insane. Some RBs out of the backfield don't get to 73%. Tyreek Hill didn't have a catch % that high. Justin Jefferson has never had a catch % that high. Sure, Stroud had more than something to do with that. But someone has to catch the pass. And I'm damn certain no one in this draft has better hands than Nico Collins.

Nice info Lucky! Just layman's eyes tell me that Nico has good hands. He's not quite Nuk, but he's got good sized, sure hands that will grab most of his targets. He's also very good at tracking the ball and putting himself into proper position to make plays. I remember that crazy play at the end of the season (Colts I think) where CJ was in serious trouble and backtracked just threw it up toward the sideline off his back foot where it's Nico or nobody and while what CJ did was absolutely nuts (in a good way) the way Nico saw that ball and tracked it and got himself into position was the underrated part of that play. Everyone (rightfully) praised the hell out of CJ for that artistry...but Nico deserves major kudos as well.

 

[badboy]

If Dell is going to take away Nico's yards b/c he's healthy.....then by reasoning, wouldn't the same happen to any WR walking through the door?

At this time Collins is the Texans WR1 and needs to be re-signed. CJ, Nico, and Dell have great chemistry.....so the team must keep it together. I'd like to add a solid complimentary piece to the equation....be it a veteran SWR or finding that piece in the draft.

add someone like Troy Franklin or Brian Thomas and let CJ decide where he wants to throw it. They will all get their yards and hopefully more touchdowns this year. Saquan there to keep D cautious.

 

[badboy]

I don’t see why anybody thinks yards are going to be taken away from anybody. There’s going to be 4,500+ yards to go around. Plenty to have a couple of 1,000 yard receivers. Jaylen Waddle doesn’t takeaway from Tyreek Hill. Devonta Smith doesn’t take away from AJ Brown. Godwin doesn’t take away from Evans. Plenty of yards to go around for 2 good receivers.

I don’t see why anybody thinks yards are going to be taken away from anybody. There’s going to be 4,500+ yards to go around. Plenty to have a couple of 1,000 yard receivers. Jaylen Waddle doesn’t takeaway from Tyreek Hill. Devonta Smith doesn’t take away from AJ Brown. Godwin doesn’t take away from Evans. Plenty of yards to go around for 2 good receivers.

Three 1500 WRs and another 500 -?to RBs and TEs.
.

 

[badboy]

Through Week 13 (Game 12) they had played together in 10 games (both missing one game). In the final 5 games when Tank was on IR, Nico played in four of those games with 20 receptions.

Nico was averaging 5 catches a game before Tank went out. He was averaging 5 catches a game after Tank went out.

Not sure of the validity of the argument that having Tank for a full season will take away from his numbers.

Even if we consider another WR... they had other WRs this past season. Even a functional TE. Nico was only targeted 109 times in 15 games, which is well below what other WR1 in the league are targeted.

Nico and I think he was being underutilized.

 

[badboy]

What's crazy is that Collins caught 80 passes with these 109 targets. That's 73% at over 16 yards/completion. That's insane. Some RBs out of the backfield don't get to 73%. Tyreek Hill didn't have a catch % that high. Justin Jefferson has never had a catch % that high. Sure, Stroud had more than something to do with that. But someone has to catch the pass. And I'm damn certain no one in this draft has better hands than Nico Collins.

Just a comparison iirc, Mike Evans in 2023 had a less than 60% catch ratio.

 

[badboy]

Nice info Lucky! Just layman's eyes tell me that Nico has good hands. He's not quite Nuk, but he's got good sized, sure hands that will grab most of his targets. He's also very good at tracking the ball and putting himself into proper position to make plays. I remember that crazy play at the end of the season (Colts I think) where CJ was in serious trouble and backtracked just threw it up toward the sideline off his back foot where it's Nico or nobody and while what CJ did was absolutely nuts (in a good way) the way Nico saw that ball and tracked it and got himself into position was the underrated part of that play. Everyone (rightfully) praised the hell out of CJ for that artistry...but Nico deserves major kudos as well.

Pay The Man Porky! LOL

 

[leebigeztx]

H

Through Week 13 (Game 12) they had played together in 10 games (both missing one game). In the final 5 games when Tank was on IR, Nico played in four of those games with 20 receptions.

Nico was averaging 5 catches a game before Tank went out. He was averaging 5 catches a game after Tank went out.

Not sure of the validity of the argument that having Tank for a full season will take away from his numbers.

Even if we consider another WR... they had other WRs this past season. Even a functional TE. Nico was only targeted 109 times in 15 games, which is well below what other WR1 in the league are targeted.

Nico was efficient. His arrow is pointing up. I hope he has a great year, I just think his numbers will go down, but I could be wrong. If they get better in the run game that makes his impact even greater

 

[leebigeztx]

N

add someone like Troy Franklin or Brian Thomas and let CJ decide where he wants to throw it. They will all get their yards and hopefully more touchdowns this year. Saquan there to keep D cautious.

I kinda soured on Franklin. I thought he was a better foot athlete. When I saw him do the gauntlet drill and he was all over that line for a small frame guy, I will pass.

 

[JB]

N

I kinda soured on Franklin. I thought he was a better foot athlete. When I saw him do the gauntlet drill and he was all over that line for a small frame guy, I will pass.

Yeah, it was shocking he did the gauntlet so poorly. Probably the worst of all WR's

 

[leebigeztx]

Yeah, it was shocking he did the gauntlet so poorly. Probably the worst of all WR's

There are a few drills I watch specifically for certain positions. One of my little brothers was a 49ers scout and he said the gauntlet is probably the most important drill for a wr. When you're waving like he did, that means your hips are tight and you will have problems in and out of breaks.

 

[badboy]

N

I kinda soured on Franklin. I thought he was a better foot athlete. When I saw him do the gauntlet drill and he was all over that line for a small frame guy, I will pass.

I totally agree and I like Brian Thomas bulk better.

 

[TheRealJoker]

H
Nico was efficient. His arrow is pointing up. I hope he has a great year, I just think his numbers will go down, but I could be wrong. If they get better in the run game that makes his impact even greater

Efficiency is key. Stroud favors whoever is open so he’s not going to spam targets to a traditional WR1.

And Slowik desperately wants to have a running game and keep Stroud around 30-35 attempts per game. You have to feed Nico/Tank and give Schultz his usual 50-60 catches/season. I’d assume RB group will end around 40-50 catches (more if Saquon is added).

Have to be efficient with your opportunities in this offense. So far so good. Would be interested to see how a guy like Thomas fits in. Nico/Noah Brown kind of cancelled eachother out this past season for production. Brown only produced when Nico was injured. Obviously Thomas is a higher end talent so would be interesting if he can find a role other than Nico insurance.