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Injury Discussion Thread

I heard Mixon practiced on a limited basis today. Whatever the heck that means. I prefer the old school designations - probable, questionable, doubtful, out. That made it easy for me as a fan to understand the actual likelihood of that guy playing.
 
Porky said:
I heard Mixon practiced on a limited basis today. Whatever the heck that means. I prefer the old school designations - probable, questionable, doubtful, out. That made it easy for me as a fan to understand the actual likelihood of that guy playing.
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Mixon returning to limited practice on a walk-thru Friday should mean little and should not be a basis for allowing him to play in 48 hours.
 
You don't get over even a grade I hamstring in 1 or 2 days. The' explanation regarding the reports of his injuries in the last couple of weeks can only be one of two things.................... either dishonest reporting or inappropriately handled.
 
Anyone heard anything on Christian Harris? He is eligible to come off IR next week but there hasn’t been so much as a peep. Normally guys like Aaron Wilson are able to get the 411 on a guy and tell us if he is on track to return…but nada. I suspect that’s bad news and he won’t be ready, but just speculation on my part.
 
Porky said:
Anyone heard anything on Christian Harris? He is eligible to come off IR next week but there hasn’t been so much as a peep. Normally guys like Aaron Wilson are able to get the 411 on a guy and tell us if he is on track to return…but nada. I suspect that’s bad news and he won’t be ready, but just speculation on my part.
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This is all I recently have read about Harris

Aaron Allen: Dear Drew, When do you think Christian Harris will return from injury?
DD: The soonest the third-year linebacker could return to game action would be Week 5, when Houston hosts the Buffalo Bills on October 6 at noon. Last season he finished with 101 total tackles, and led the squad with 65 solo stops. His return will be a welcome one. Houston's leaned on Henry To'oTo'o through the first two contests with Harris out, and the second-year backer has looked good. Getting Harris back in the mix will only strengthen what's been a solid defense in the early going of 2024.

 
Porky said:
Anyone heard anything on Christian Harris? He is eligible to come off IR next week but there hasn’t been so much as a peep. Normally guys like Aaron Wilson are able to get the 411 on a guy and tell us if he is on track to return…but nada. I suspect that’s bad news and he won’t be ready, but just speculation on my part.
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Harris suffered a Grade II calf tear the very beginning of TC. They brought him back to practice only a short 3 weeks later.........and he never made it through a few minutes of the practice. He suffered a re-injury. Therefore, his rest/rehab should be close to week 5.............and since it was a re-injury, he will be that much more susceptible to further injury during the season.
 
Porky said:
I heard Mixon practiced on a limited basis today. Whatever the heck that means. I prefer the old school designations - probable, questionable, doubtful, out. That made it easy for me as a fan to understand the actual likelihood of that guy playing.
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The gamblers told the NFL to change the designations. SMH
 
DocBar said:
Gambling is ruining sports, imho.
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Gambling in sports is something that's been around for decades worldwide. I don't gamble on sports, but all you have to do is have the right safeguards in place and stop complaining about it. And not act like you need to re-invent the wheel. The necessary experience is out there.
 
paycheck71 said:
Gambling in sports is something that's been around for decades worldwide. I don't gamble on sports, but all you have to do is have the right safeguards in place and stop complaining about it. And not act like you need to re-invent the wheel. The necessary experience is out there.
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It hasn't been legalized for decades. It makes every questionable call suspicious. I don't gamble either. I chuckle when I hear fans talk about how many points their team is favored by or an underdog by. Those spreads are just to get people to bet and ensure the book at least breaks even.
 
DocBar said:
It hasn't been legalized for decades. It makes every questionable call suspicious. I don't gamble either. I chuckle when I hear fans talk about how many points their team is favored by or an underdog by. Those spreads are just to get people to bet and ensure the book at least breaks even.
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It's been legal worldwide for decades. We just need to use their experience to know how to handle it. You can place a bet in Europe at the stadium.
 
Illegal gambling has indeed been around forever. But since it was made legal in 2018, the numbers of NFL gamblers and the monies involved have sky rocketed. The states who have profited in the billions have little incentive to properly monitor and adjudicate irregularities. To believe that this has not encouraged and resulted in widespread odds manipulation, and introduction of the criminal element, is the ultimate naivety.

****************


Frictionless sports betting and the NFL: the twin obsessions targeting young men​

A new NFL season marks the peak sports betting months. Recent studies show the strain legalized gambling is putting on financially constrained households and young men

Brendan Ruberry
Wed 4 Sep 2024 04.00 EDT



On Thursday night, the NFL season will kick off in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs, as fans tune in to see if Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes can lead his team to a fourth Super Bowl victory in seven years – possibly, even, to an unprecedented “three-peat”.

It’s about as enticing a storyline as the league could hope for. And yet, it seems that most of the action will be taking place off the field, as Thursday also marks the beginning of the busiest time of year for those who play the game-within-the-game: sports bettors.

Five years after the 2018 US supreme court decision that threw sports betting back to the states, over $300bn has been wagered, with $120bn thrown in 2023 alone – a record that 2024 is poised to break, with more than 70m Americans expected to try their hand at beating the oddsmakers. Though companies do not disclose the amount wagered on each sport, the American football season is widely considered the industry’s marquee event.

A graphic of football players with a $100 bill underneath them
US gambling sector’s ‘relentless’ social media posts breached own rules, study claims

So far, 38 states plus the District of Columbia have taken the plunge into legal sports gambling (LSG), most of which is done on smartphone apps operated by the young titans of the industry like DraftKings and FanDuel – who, collectively, handle the bulk of bets. Though there may be a few states that decline to follow the 38, possibly due to ethical and religious objections (Utah, for example), it’s likely that more will follow. And they will justify it on the grounds of a simple, appealing – but, critically, undercooked – logic: illegal gambling is dangerous, and lucrative; by making it legal and regulating it, we can reduce harm, cut organized crime out of the picture, and drive tax revenue to things we like, such as education, veterans services, the environment, and so on.

Will there be negative social costs? Perhaps, as is often the case when a vice is brought into the open. But it will do more harm than good. Or so the thinking goes.

So it’s entirely apropos that, just in time for football season, we have several new studies which directly challenge these assumptions by scrutinizing the effects of legal sports betting on consumer financial health.

Where most research predates the advent of our new app-based paradigm, focusing mostly on casino and illicit gambling, these recent studies come directly to bear upon an era in which bettors can “bust out” without even leaving their couches.

And the findings, though modest in their net effect on the average consumer’s financial condition, strike directly at the heart of the assumptions used to push legalization in the first place.

In The Financial Consequences of Legalized Sports Gambling, authors Brett Hollenbeck, Poet Larsen and Davide Proserpio find that in states with legal mobile sports betting, among seven million individuals, credit scores worsen up to 1% on average, while the odds of bankruptcy in states with legal online betting increase by 25% to 30% after four years, and collections of unpaid debts increase by 8% – statistically significant findings which suggest a causal link between online access to LSG and elevated indicators of financial distress. (It’s important to note that these are statewide averages which incorporate the finances of those who don’t gamble at all, suggesting these modest figures are driven by dramatic changes in the financial security of the relatively small number who do.) The researchers also find evidence of proactive behavior on the part of lenders as they lower credit card limits to insulate themselves from exposure to the heightened risk environment caused by LSG.

The odds of bankruptcy in states with legal online betting increase by 25-30% after four years
Click to expand...

The losses, meanwhile, are most heavily concentrated among young men from low-income counties, a finding which happens to rhyme with those of another study, provocatively titled Gambling Away Stability, in which researchers from the University of Kansas, Northwestern University and BYU observe that LSG reduces net investments by nearly 14% overall. That means that for every $1 of sports bets, net investment to traditional brokerage accounts is reduced by more than $2. Studying 230,000 households, they also found evidence of increasing credit card debt and overdrafts – and that financially constrained households deposit a larger fraction of their income than those facing fewer constraints. LSG seems to push low-savings households, in particular, into greater precarity than is the case for non-betting low-savings households.

In other words, both studies find that LSG makes it even more difficult for those who began their lives without wealth to ever build it. And the Hollenbeck-Larsen-Proserpio study makes clear that nearly every studied financial health indicator worsens in cases where the betting is done online or on mobile devices – which are, as they find, the avenue for more than 90% of all LSG – to the extent that those gambling offline are just not harmed to a comparable extent: “We find that while the general accessibility to sports betting leads to insignificant changes to bankruptcy filing, online access significantly increases the likelihood of bankruptcy filing” (emphasis mine).

THE REST OF THE STORY
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Illegal gambling has indeed been around forever. But since it was made legal in 2018, the numbers of NFL gamblers and the monies involved have sky rocketed. The states who have profited in the billions have little incentive to properly monitor and adjudicate irregularities. To believe that this has not encouraged and resulted in widespread odds manipulation, and introduction of the criminal element, is the ultimate naivety.

****************

​

Frictionless sports betting and the NFL: the twin obsessions targeting young men​

A new NFL season marks the peak sports betting months. Recent studies show the strain legalized gambling is putting on financially constrained households and young men

Brendan Ruberry
Wed 4 Sep 2024 04.00 EDT



On Thursday night, the NFL season will kick off in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs, as fans tune in to see if Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes can lead his team to a fourth Super Bowl victory in seven years – possibly, even, to an unprecedented “three-peat”.

It’s about as enticing a storyline as the league could hope for. And yet, it seems that most of the action will be taking place off the field, as Thursday also marks the beginning of the busiest time of year for those who play the game-within-the-game: sports bettors.

Five years after the 2018 US supreme court decision that threw sports betting back to the states, over $300bn has been wagered, with $120bn thrown in 2023 alone – a record that 2024 is poised to break, with more than 70m Americans expected to try their hand at beating the oddsmakers. Though companies do not disclose the amount wagered on each sport, the American football season is widely considered the industry’s marquee event.
A graphic of football players with a $100 bill underneath them
US gambling sector’s ‘relentless’ social media posts breached own rules, study claims
So far, 38 states plus the District of Columbia have taken the plunge into legal sports gambling (LSG), most of which is done on smartphone apps operated by the young titans of the industry like DraftKings and FanDuel – who, collectively, handle the bulk of bets. Though there may be a few states that decline to follow the 38, possibly due to ethical and religious objections (Utah, for example), it’s likely that more will follow. And they will justify it on the grounds of a simple, appealing – but, critically, undercooked – logic: illegal gambling is dangerous, and lucrative; by making it legal and regulating it, we can reduce harm, cut organized crime out of the picture, and drive tax revenue to things we like, such as education, veterans services, the environment, and so on.

Will there be negative social costs? Perhaps, as is often the case when a vice is brought into the open. But it will do more harm than good. Or so the thinking goes.

So it’s entirely apropos that, just in time for football season, we have several new studies which directly challenge these assumptions by scrutinizing the effects of legal sports betting on consumer financial health.

Where most research predates the advent of our new app-based paradigm, focusing mostly on casino and illicit gambling, these recent studies come directly to bear upon an era in which bettors can “bust out” without even leaving their couches.

And the findings, though modest in their net effect on the average consumer’s financial condition, strike directly at the heart of the assumptions used to push legalization in the first place.

In The Financial Consequences of Legalized Sports Gambling, authors Brett Hollenbeck, Poet Larsen and Davide Proserpio find that in states with legal mobile sports betting, among seven million individuals, credit scores worsen up to 1% on average, while the odds of bankruptcy in states with legal online betting increase by 25% to 30% after four years, and collections of unpaid debts increase by 8% – statistically significant findings which suggest a causal link between online access to LSG and elevated indicators of financial distress. (It’s important to note that these are statewide averages which incorporate the finances of those who don’t gamble at all, suggesting these modest figures are driven by dramatic changes in the financial security of the relatively small number who do.) The researchers also find evidence of proactive behavior on the part of lenders as they lower credit card limits to insulate themselves from exposure to the heightened risk environment caused by LSG.



The losses, meanwhile, are most heavily concentrated among young men from low-income counties, a finding which happens to rhyme with those of another study, provocatively titled Gambling Away Stability, in which researchers from the University of Kansas, Northwestern University and BYU observe that LSG reduces net investments by nearly 14% overall. That means that for every $1 of sports bets, net investment to traditional brokerage accounts is reduced by more than $2. Studying 230,000 households, they also found evidence of increasing credit card debt and overdrafts – and that financially constrained households deposit a larger fraction of their income than those facing fewer constraints. LSG seems to push low-savings households, in particular, into greater precarity than is the case for non-betting low-savings households.

In other words, both studies find that LSG makes it even more difficult for those who began their lives without wealth to ever build it. And the Hollenbeck-Larsen-Proserpio study makes clear that nearly every studied financial health indicator worsens in cases where the betting is done online or on mobile devices – which are, as they find, the avenue for more than 90% of all LSG – to the extent that those gambling offline are just not harmed to a comparable extent: “We find that while the general accessibility to sports betting leads to insignificant changes to bankruptcy filing, online access significantly increases the likelihood of bankruptcy filing” (emphasis mine).

THE REST OF THE STORY
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The Covid-19 plandemic has to factor heavily into the bankruptcies, I would think.
 
paycheck71 said:
It's been legal worldwide for decades. We just need to use their experience to know how to handle it. You can place a bet in Europe at the stadium.
Click to expand...
Or don't gamble if you are sure it's rigged like me.

People who gamble on rigged sports make me SMH. You know what they say about fools and their money soon parting.
 
badboy said:
What does gambling and the covid pandemic have to do with injury discussion? Come on mods get it together!
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COVID doesn't. But the Injury Reports were specifically established to assist betting entities. And unfortunately, the Injury Reports are being manipulated with half-truths an/or overt falsehoods in order to not only skew betting line, but also to alter opponent team appropriate preparedness. The only people to have access to the true injury statuses are the gambling entities..............not the public.............not even team opponents.

*******************************************************

From Fixer Deterrent to Fantasy Lure: The History of the NFL Injury Report​

By Rick Paulas
October 12, 2016, 12:51pm

No league is impacted by injuries quite like the NFL. The litany of injuries has an effect on fans, who can rarely glom onto the career of one particular player, forced instead to give their soul to the nebulous “franchise” nearest where they happen to live.

But it has an even greater effect on those with money in the game: the gamblers and the fantasy sports players who spend billions of dollars a year. This is why the NFL injury report is, and has been, one of the most important data collections in the entirety of sports.

The report, not surprisingly, has its foundation in a gambling scandal. The night before the 1946 NFL Championship between the Chicago Bears and the New York Giants, commissioner Bert Bell got word that two Giants—Frank Filchock, the starting QB, and Merle Hapes, the backup fullback—had been offered bribes to throw the game. By then, rumors had spread through the betting underworld, whittling a 10-point spread for a Bears win down to 7.5 as everyone learned the fix was in. Bell responded to the late night fiasco by removing Filchock and Hapes from the game, further mussing the line, until reconsidering and allowing Filchock to play, mussing things up again. The end result was a Bears 24-14 win against a 13-point spread, a confusion of the gambling market that resulted in the country’s bookies taking, as the Chicago Tribune put it, “a sound beating.”

Afterwards, hoping to control the damage, Bell began to confront actions he found “detrimental to the league.” This meant everything from sticking former G-men on the league payroll to spy on teams and lurk in the shadows of smoky gambling dens, to penning a Saturday Evening Post op-ed titled “Do the Gamblers Make a Sucker Out of You?” (To give a sense of Bell’s position, the op-ed opens by comparing unconfirmed reports of enemy nations with poison gas during WWII to rumor-mongering in the NFL).

But Bell’s most lasting contribution was introducing the rule that all teams “provide fully and completely accurate information about every player’s availability.” So began the life of the NFL Injury Report.

The current iteration has three different sections: one about participation in practice, one about players statuses for the game, and one about “in-game” injuries. The in-game section is fodder for broadcasters and viewers-at-home, while practice reports are benign pieces of fluff with no real significance, as banged-up players regularly rest their bodies after Week 1. (The league office, however, randomly reviews team practice footage to make sure everything is on the up and up.) It’s that middle chunk—whether a player is actually going to play or not—that’s the hot ****.

untitled-article-1476289344-body-image-1476290324.jpg

“So, are you questionable questionable? Or just questionable?”

The report has been tweaked over the years, but this season ushered in the most significant change in nearly 70 years. Before, a player could appear on the report with one of four designations: “out,” “doubtful,” “questionable,” and “probable.” (If you’re not on the report, you’re good to go.) This season, however, the NFL removed “probable” as an option, which was used to signify a “virtual certainty” the player was available “for normal duty.” The result is a football landscape that is far trickier for outside observers to predict.

One group remains relatively unaffected by the change, however: Vegas oddsmakers, who utilize the injury report differently from the way you might assume.

“One of the misconceptions is that oddsmakers are trying to predict what the final margin of the game will be,” says Jon Campbell, the sports analyst for OddsShark, a website that analyzes gambling odds and trends. “That’s not what they’re doing.

They’re trying to predict what the public will think that margin will be.”

The difference is subtle, yet important. If a quarterback gets injured, of course there’s going to be a change in how the upcoming game is perceived. But if a star wide receiver goes down? Not necessarily.

“What people overlook is that Vegas has better injury information than what’s available to everyone else,” says Campbell, straight from beat reporters and other sources close to teams. “Injuries are already factored into the line by the time bettors see the line. The market may move the line from there based on perception.”

Vegas oddsmakers are essentially using their own injury reports to create the “true” line, then tweaking based on what information the public has through the injury report. Something like, “that guy’s definitely not playing, but he’s listed at ‘questionable,’ meaning the public thinks he may play, so let’s gut these suckers accordingly.”
untitled-article-1476289344-body-image-1476290430.jpg

You don’t want the center to get injured. Photo by Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
In fact, after the quarterback, the second most important position in the football gambling world isn’t the receiver, or running back, or tight end, no matter how much your fantasy team depends on their numbers. It’s the starting center, you know, that person in charge of the crew that allows the offense to function at all and has no place in fantasy sports. It’s this disconnect between the stat-based lens of fantasy and the points-based lens of gambling that’s resulted in more than a few fantasy mavens taking a bath when trying to bet lines. But it’s the rising impact of fantasy—that is to say, the shift in how fans interact with the sport—that has, perhaps, led to the NFL Injury Report’s recent change.
The NFL said it removed the “probable” tag since roughly 95 percent of those players played anyway, but rumors in the fantasy landscape hint at a more insidious reason: that the league is hoping the added uncertainty will keep fantasy owners further glued to injury-related news throughout the week. Having more eyes on league-owned properties like the NFL Network or NFL.com, or even just building up ancillary interest in the game, only further hypes the big performances Thursday through Monday. It’s the sports equivalent of a Chris Hardwick talk show about what just happened, and anticipating what’s next, on AMC’s latest hit series.
“When you saw it was ‘probable,’ it was almost a certainty he was going to play,” says Campbell. “Now you really have to dig in to see what [questionable] means.” Intended or not, the removal of the “probable” tag has had an effect on fantasy sports handicappers.

“It’s made life worse, I’ll tell you that,” says Matt Camp, fantasy football analyst for Bleacher Report and host on SiriusXM’s Fantasy Sports Radio. “When I’d see a guy ‘probable,’ he’s playing. If you had a hiccup, you’d be on the injury report. But this year, it’s legitimately up in the air.” Coaches don’t clarify matters. They tend to only allow the most obvious injury information to pass from their lips to the beat reporters, so unless someone has a season-ender, they’re thrown into the “questionable” stew. “Most coaches think it’s within the rights of gamesmanship to try to hide injury information,” says Dave Richard, a fantasy football columnist for CBS Sports. “Pete Carroll is a well-known liar, Bill Belichick doesn’t even entertain injury questions.”)

It all puts the NFL injury report in a strange spot. Initially intended as a no-spin-zone, where injuries were out in the open so all fans—and, yes, bettors—felt comfortable they were watching an unadulterated game of pigskin, the report has morphed into something far murkier. Coaches gonna coach, and try to keep whatever competitive advantage they believe they’re getting from their empty calorie press conferences. But the newly huge net of “questionable” has created a swirling vortex of confusion and shrugs.

There’s still good information out there if one knows where to look, but the days of the official NFL injury report as a legitimate source has gone the way of leather helmets and two-way players. Rather, the league’s decimation of injury information has come full circle, back to when the only folks who really knew what the **** was going on any given week was the gamblers.
 
This is nothing more than God'ell and the owners getting in bed with the people who pay their bills. (The gamblers) BTW, you know what they say, a fool and his money are soon to part. People who bet on a rigged game/system are fools IMHO.
 
Harris will not be practicing this week. I’d assume he will need atleast two or three weeks of practice to get into football shape when he does eventually come off IR. But knowing the Texans they would throw him out for full snaps with a limited Friday practice only!

texanswire.usatoday.com

DeMeco Ryans provides update on Texans LB Christian Harris

The Texans will be without star linebacker Christian Harris for at least one more week.
texanswire.usatoday.com texanswire.usatoday.com

Texans coach DeMeco Ryans told reporters that Harris would remain on injured reserve and won’t return to start practicing this week.
 
DBCooper said:
I’m a horrible gambler lol

Figured that out playing poker with my buddies as a teenager and my friend told me later that some people have tells and others are easy read books!

I’m the book

lol
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Me too

I go to the casinos once or twice a yr. I've been to Vegas and not gambled. If I gamble it's for the entertainment. There's something about knowing the odds are stacked against me that makes me not want to gamble.
 
Lucky said:
Are the Texans seriously considering bringing Horton back this season?
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It seems so. All will have to do with endurance. I don't really agree with his return to a strenuous lifestyle so soon. No matter what, having completed a 4-drug chemotherapy treatment, the treatment usually leaves the patient with some decrease in cardiac function with probable residual compromised immunity. With empirically high recurrence rate (see my posts in the Horton thread), I'm not sure I would encourage a return so soon.
 
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