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Hurricane Ike

Well, the NHC is now where I was 3 days ago. What took you so long!

Having said that, my sincere hope is this thing keeps trending east ala Rita and we don't take a direct hit. Unfortentely, even the best case scenerio for Houston is not that great. At best we probably have TS force winds and a couple inches of rain. That would cause a few trees to fall, short term pwr outages etc, but would be more inconvienence than anything. Lives and property should be fine in 99% of cases.

If we get close to the track they have now, it's not going to be pretty. I could see 80-100 mph sustained winds in Houston for several hours with higher gusts, roofs damaged, and some destroyed, trees and poles down everywhere, projectiles hurled thru windows, etc. No pwr for days, water and gasoline issues, damaged homes, massive cleanup. Ugh. :devilpig:
 
Well, six more minutes until all the new updates come in. I'm still thinking about flaming that guy who's telling everyone to grow a pair in the football forum, but I'm thinking for now I should leave it alone.
 
Thorn said:
Well, six more minutes until all the new updates come in. I'm still thinking about flaming that guy who's telling everyone to grow a pair in the football forum, but I'm thinking for now I should leave it alone.
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That was my thoughts exactly Thorn. I just decided the dude's just not worth my time. I have to many other things to worry about this morning.
 
Thorn said:
Well, six more minutes until all the new updates come in. I'm still thinking about flaming that guy who's telling everyone to grow a pair in the football forum, but I'm thinking for now I should leave it alone.
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SheTexan said:
That was my thoughts exactly Thorn. I just decided the dude's just not worth my time. I have to many other things to worry about this morning.
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Who, what, where???
 
The new track that has it coming near us reminds me of Rita. So if I were a betting man, when its all said and done - it passes to the east of us. Tailgating for sunday is on like donkey kong. We'll be in there, like thong swim wear!!!:tiphat:
 
Thorn said:
Well, six more minutes until all the new updates come in. I'm still thinking about flaming that guy who's telling everyone to grow a pair in the football forum, but I'm thinking for now I should leave it alone.
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I couldn't help myself. I guess I removed all doubt. One day restraint will be more of a strong point with me.
 
Porky said:
I like watching them from afar. I don't like being in them AT ALL!
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Same here.

Eye looks to track right over my house, at this time. Mtg here at work in a couple hours regarding hurricane prep here, all co workers seem to have aged 20 years overnight. I plan on leaving at noon whether they like it or not because the mandatory evacs will be hampering my commute home, I have to get some plywood...
This is going to hurt, folks.
 
Showtime100 said:
I couldn't help myself. I guess I removed all doubt. One day restraint will be more of a strong point with me.
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I saw your post, that a**wipe deserves all the bad retorts he gets.

Oh well, my plans for work and riding out the hurricane are not finalized yet, so I guess I better start beeping and emailing my various bosses. LOL
 
my area has a manditory evac but I'm still thinking that this is overkill. Still deciding if I should split.
 
Vinny said:
my area has a manditory evac but I'm still thinking that this is overkill. Still deciding if I should split.
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Go. If you are under mandatory evac, I think you should head out. Stay safe.

So far the roads don't appear to be too bad. I think lots of people that got burned in the Rita evac have decided to stay. But leaving sooner, would be better than later.
 
Thorn said:
I saw your post, that a**wipe deserves all the bad retorts he gets.

Oh well, my plans for work and riding out the hurricane are not finalized yet, so I guess I better start beeping and emailing my various bosses. LOL
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Take care of your cat!!

Vinny said:
my area has a manditory evac but I'm still thinking that this is overkill. Still deciding if I should split.
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What part of town are you in, Vinny? I ask because I've got an uncle in Manvel and am curious as to his status .
 
Vinny said:
my area has a manditory evac but I'm still thinking that this is overkill. Still deciding if I should split.
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Aren't you over in the La Porte area Vinny? If so I think it's best that you get out of dodge. The mandatory evacuations they issued this morning for Harris County were based on those areas being effected by storm surge. That's not something you want to mess around with.

I'm in the Deer Park area, but I'm not under a mandatory evacuation. Even so some of my extended family who lives in the same area as I do got out of town yesterday. My advice to you would be to go ahead & get out of town. Stay safe.
 
GlassHalfFull said:
Go. If you are under mandatory evac, I think you should head out. Stay safe.

So far the roads don't appear to be too bad. I think lots of people that got burned in the Rita evac have decided to stay. But leaving sooner, would be better than later.
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Showtime100 said:
Take care of your cat!!



What part of town are you in, Vinny? I ask because I've got an uncle in Manvel and am curious as to his status .
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I'm in La Porte off of 146 a few miles from Sylvan beach. I'm getting my Mother out of the area (she lives closer to beltway 8 but still in the maditory evac zone) but may hunker down and watch our houses with my trusty weinerdog.
 
Vinny said:
I'm in La Porte off of 146 a few miles from Sylvan beach. I'm getting my Mother out of the area (she lives closer to beltway 8 but still in the maditory evac zone) but may hunker down and watch our houses with my trusty weinerdog.
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Good luck Vinny, take appropriate precautions. Do you have all of the supplied you need?
 
texasguy346 said:
Aren't you over in the La Porte area Vinny? If so I think it's best that you get out of dodge. The mandatory evacuations they issued this morning for Harris County were based on those areas being effected by storm surge. That's not something you want to mess around with.

I'm in the Deer Park area, but I'm not under a mandatory evacuation. Even so some of my extended family who lives in the same area as I do got out of town yesterday. My advice to you would be to go ahead & get out of town. Stay safe.
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I may still split.....currently washing clothes and mowing the yard. I figure that if we even have a mild wind we will lose our power. I'll be boarding my widows up before noon as well.
Cjeremy635 said:
Good luck Vinny, take appropriate precautions. Do you have all of the supplied you need?
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still need a few more sheets of plywood...but hopefully home depot or lowes still has some plywood or chipboard this morning.
 
I am at ConocoPhillips and they are shutting us down at noon today through the weekend. I don't think my trip to Brownwood is on anymore and even though I'm not in a flood plain I am getting sandbags just to make sure we get no seepage into the house.
 
Vinny said:
my area has a manditory evac but I'm still thinking that this is overkill. Still deciding if I should split.
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Leave when you think its the best time.....but sometimes its better to go and not have had to, than to not go and wish the hell ya did...Regardless, be safe my friend !
 
My parents live in the North Shore area and after the great evacuation debacle they now refuse to leave ever again. I guess the good thing here is that it should weaken up before it hits.

Good luck to all of you and be safe.
 
I wanted to come home late tonight or tomorrow morning (to Spring) and go to the game on Sunday...but my mom is trying to persuade me to stay in San Marcos due to the driving winds. I'm definitely considering it....I really hate to miss the first game though. I haven't done that since I missed the very first one against the Cowboys and only missed about 3-4 overall.
 
insignificant for everyone but me, however, our new pool was plastered yesterday and is filling with water as I type. my concern was with all of the debris...small boards, trash, etc., that could easily be picked up and become a projectile, but my builder has already told me that clean up will be scheduled today and equipment will be started.

I had "pool popping out of the ground" concerns, so getting it filled with water is a load off my mind.

best of luck everyone in riding this storm out!

generator-check
water-check
food-check
tanks filled-check
on post storm tree removal list-check
Shiner Light-check
 
Vinny said:
I may still split.....currently washing clothes and mowing the yard. I figure that if we even have a mild wind we will lose our power. I'll be boarding my widows up before noon as well. still need a few more sheets of plywood...but hopefully home depot or lowes still has some plywood or chipboard this morning.
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Good luck Vinny. Be careful bud!!
 
It's all very stressful and nobody can deny it. Still please forgive me while I repost an old favorite (wish I could have found a bigger copy).

aggie_small-1.jpg


Never gets old does it?
 
My mom refuses to evacuate, she wants to keep my dad comfortable and not move him, this storm is going to be too much for their house especially if it moves north a little more. They are under madatory evacuation, just a couple miles inland of trinity bay, she refuses to leave.
 
Hervoyel said:
It's all very stressful and nobody can deny it. Still please forgive me while I repost an old favorite (wish I could have found a bigger copy).

aggie_small-1.jpg


Never gets old does it?
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There is a store in Corpus Christi that I passed by this morning and they put the plywood on the same way!
 
Well, it is probably too much and I usually laugh at overhyper people about this stuff but I have a feeling about this one.....just loaded up on stuff fro the gas stove....soup, etc and on bread, peanut butter, stuff for the baby, etc. The store was a madhouse
 
Been thinking about you Vinny! I'm not that far from you, but, you are always welcome to ride out the storm at my house. Right now, we are planning to stay put. I live in that little triangle by 225 and the beltway, about 1 mile from the toll bridge. My biggest concern is these bigass trees I have in my yard! My neighbor has zero trees in her yard due to Alicia. She had huge trees that were uprooted and thrown around like pencils. SOOOOO, I'm praying these suckers stay put.

My prayers are with everyone out there. Be smart, don't take any chances, it's just not worth it. I'm abiding by what the authorities are saying. Hunkering down and shelter in place.
 
Brando said:
There is a store in Corpus Christi that I passed by this morning and they put the plywood on the same way!
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I see it all the time. It's not uncommon for people to do that.

I have to deal with that damn picture every time a little stormcloud passes through with you people.

:tease:
 
Co worker found me plywood! Need Doc to hurry his a$$ up to get here before we close to get it! Can't haul in my SUV...:scarygirl:
 
Latest from my folks, time stamped 9AM CDT:

Hurricane Ike remains a strong CAT 2 storm with 100 mph winds. The storm was located about 470 mi SE of Galveston moving WNW near 8 mph. The central pressure remains a very low 946 mb and the storm continues to exhibit a dual eye wall structure which is limiting rapid intensification to what is normally seen with this sort of pressure. AF RECON is now measuring 120 mph+ winds in the outer eye wall and I think this feature will gradually take over allowing the storm to intensify to CAT 3 later today and perhaps go through a rapid deepening phase to CAT 4 just prior to landfall on the Upper TX coast just south of Freeport, TX.

Ike is a VERY large storm with tropical storm force winds extending over 300 mi from the center. The NHC has had to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for NEW ORLEANS because of wind gusts over 50 mph along the northern Gulf coast and over the energy producing region. Seas of 20-30 ft have been reported in the shelf waters off short the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane force winds extend outward over 100 mi from the center and the trajectory of Ike will result in an unusually long fetch of wind which will pile up water along it’s path and result in a very significant and widespread storm surge along and east of where the eye makes landfall. A storm surge of 15-20 ft is expected from Freeport to High Island with an 8-15 ft surge from High Island to southwest LA. This level of surge will overspill the sea wall in Galveston by 5-10 ft resulting in major flood damage in addition to severe hurricane winds sustained near or above 100 mph with gusts to over 120 mph. I expect widespread damage across all the upper coast east of Matagorda Bay and the failure by emergency management to force evacuations in many communities will likely put many individuals in an unnecessary life threatening situation.

This remains primarily a shut-in event for Production in the northern Gulf, but significant surge along the SW LA coast and upper TX coast could result in some flooding into Henry Hub and more importantly, severe coastal flooding in Galveston Bay which could significantly impact coastal refineries in Texas City and other areas.

A Hurricane Watch has been posed for all of the Upper Texas coast and landfall of the storm is expected between midnight and 6am on Saturday morning. The most significant hurricane conditions should overspread the Houston area Saturday morning, gradually improving late in the day. Extensive loss of power and cell phone towers should limit communications and other activities in the local area. It is likely that power outages will linger for over a week in many places if this makes landfall as a CAT 3…considerably longer if stronger.
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From Wunderground....wow...
Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so may get overtopped.
 
Reports are coming in that 69 and 96 north are now clogging up bumper to bumper.
 
gwallaia said:
Reports are coming in that 69 and 96 north are now clogging up bumper to bumper.
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It's crazy isn't it? I remember during Rita that traffice was hellacious at the onslaught, but that it was minimual at most the day before the storm. It was the initial surge of traffice that clogged everything up. If I was leaving, I would wait until Friday morning or afternoon. But, that's just me. I have a feeling that the drive from Crosby to Huffman is going to take me forever this evening. Luckily, the commute back into work in the morning should be pretty easy.
 
Another good idea is to lower the temp settings on your fridge and freezer. Put food you want to use first in a cooler with ice, so you don't have to open your fridge.
 
Well, gas is pretty much out in Crosby, has been since around 9:30 this morning. I topped off the truck and filled up a 30 gallon poly chemical drum with gas. Anyone else seeing gas shortages at this time?
 
ATX said:
I just saw a cam shot of 45 N in Galveston. Wouldn't want to be in that traffic.
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Yeah, they need to open the contra flow lanes. If not, this is going to end up like Rita. I heard they are waiting until this evening, I say do it now.
 
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