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David Johnson... welcome to houston

Mr teX said:
Duke is a good WR and just an ok runner of the ball. Certainly wasn’t a more punishing runner than Hyde & he’s not a better WR option than any of the WR’s. So I’m curious as to where folks thought more touches for Duke was gonna come from. We would’ve had to take targets away from guys who specialize in catching the ball. Most times We had 4 other better and legit options than Duke. Nuk, Fuller (played 11 games), Stills and Fells. Based on all of these guys’ production, I wouldn’t have taken targets away from them to go to Duke. This year could be different..but it’s most likely going to be the same if David Johnson can stay healthy.
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for me I was hoping rather than passing to Hopkins at the line of scrimmage or two to three yards he would throw to David Johnson allowing Hop to take his man out of the picture. Also faking run to Duke, taking ball out of pocket as if #4 was going to run but passing to Duke.
 

Care to explain how this has anything to do with winning 3 games/could've been 4 with the team playing crappy and having a supposed moron as a HC?
 
badboy said:
for me I was hoping rather than passing to Hopkins at the line of scrimmage or two to three yards he would throw to David Johnson allowing Hop to take his man out of the picture. Also faking run to Duke, taking ball out of pocket as if #4 was going to run but passing to Duke.
Click to expand...

It's not like the other WR's cant do this.
 
mussop said:
This is actually the best way to build a team and I would be fine with this if we weren’t coming out on the short end value wise Transaction after transaction. If it were being done by a good coach or a GM that understands value. Don’t even bother coming back with that division title or now it’s his players crap argument either. Emperor O is a terrible play caller, game manager and player evaluator. He’s making the same boneheaded mistakes tiday that he was making 6years ago. He Doesn’t know when to use time outs, doesn’t have plays ready in key situations, clearly doesn’t have a feel for the game. So yeah, it’s roster building by someone that doesn’t know how to lay a foundation. So keep on sitting there talking about acceptance all you want and good for you. As far as I’m concerned he’s robbing my team. I hate seeing this tool waste another year of these players lives. Just because I won’t accept it doesn’t mean I don’t realize he’s made McNair his *****.
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Good thing he's not calling plays this yr then. That should make you happy. It makes me happy because he should get better with TO's/challenges with less on his plate.
 
steelbtexan said:
So your mind is made up and you're not even willing to give this a chance.
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SIX YEARS!!!

NO! I’ve seen enough. Good Coaches just like good players don’t continue to make the same mistakes over and over again. Six years is more than enough time for him to improve as a coach and he hasn’t. Just this year look at all the bone headed mistakes he’s made. He is who he is except now he has more power. That’s not going to change his coaching abilities.
 
badboy said:
I don't want my wide receivers catching the ball within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. That's what tight ends and running backs are for in my opinion so I can take the hit much better. Hop got hit a lot more than he should've.
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All teams run shallow crossing routes with their WR's. Remember AJ ran those quite often. Look for Cobb to run a bunch of those next yr.

Hopefully Warring will be running down the seam more than the 5 yd passes.
 
Lucky said:
1400-1600 total yards should be the minimum, since Johnson is being paid like RBs that get 1800-2000 combined yards.

And when Johnson doesn't produce 1400-1600 total yards, you'll be the first to denounce this deal and call for O'Brien's head, right?
Click to expand...

Per overthecap.com, he's the third highest paid running back in the NFL per year, behind Ezekiel Elliot and Le'Veon Bell. I just threw up in my mouth...Geez I just want to punch BOB in his giblets...

Running Back Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

Ranking the top NFL Running Back contracts and salaries in the NFL
overthecap.com
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
It's about time to put that repeated weary and inaccurate claim to rest.
In 2019, the Texans passed the ball on 1st down 60.31%

In 2018, the Texans passed the ball on 1st down 60.91%
link
Click to expand...
I don't know where that site came up with those numbers. But according to Pro-football-reference.com, the Texans ran the ball 259 times on 1st down, and attempted to pass on 1st 199 times. That is a 43.4% passing rate on 1st down.

Over all downs, the Texans passed 57.3% to 42.7% rushes.

The numbers in 2018 were even more stark, Rushing on 1st down 61% to 39% passing.
 
steelbtexan said:
All teams run shallow crossing routes with their WR's. Remember AJ ran those quite often. Look for Cobb to run a bunch of those next yr.

Hopefully Warring will be running down the seam more than the 5 yd passes.
Click to expand...
I don't want shallow crossing routes to be our staple but rather to catch opponent by surprise or take advantage of their positioning. In my opinion WRs are to get the ball down field or to draw defenders away from the target.
 
Lucky said:
I don't know where that site came up with those numbers. But according to Pro-football-reference.com, the Texans ran the ball 259 times on 1st down, and attempted to pass on 1st 199 times. That is a 43.4% passing rate on 1st down.

Over all downs, the Texans passed 57.3% to 42.7% rushes.

The numbers in 2018 were even more stark, Rushing on 1st down 61% to 39% passing.
Click to expand...

I have no idea why the discrepancies, but probably would have to defer to PFR's numbers.
 
steelbtexan said:
All teams run shallow crossing routes with their WR's. Remember AJ ran those quite often. Look for Cobb to run a bunch of those next yr.

Hopefully Warring will be running down the seam more than the 5 yd passes.
Click to expand...


Yes we do but they’re not running it consistently. Plus they are not designing any run routes like these other teams. KC killed us with that.

As far as Warring, the kid is talented but let’s be clear here, he doesn’t have that much experience. Fell did an outstanding job for us , the reason why he got extended. Therefore, we see him running up the seams more often.
 
Lucky said:
I don't know where that site came up with those numbers. But according to Pro-football-reference.com, the Texans ran the ball 259 times on 1st down, and attempted to pass on 1st 199 times. That is a 43.4% passing rate on 1st down.

Over all downs, the Texans passed 57.3% to 42.7% rushes.

The numbers in 2018 were even more stark, Rushing on 1st down 61% to 39% passing.
Click to expand...


So I was actually right on target. Thanks for posting this Lucky
 
Texansballer74 said:
Yes we do but they’re not running it consistently. Plus they are not designing any run routes like these other teams. KC killed us with that.

As far as Warring, the kid is talented but let’s be clear here, he doesn’t have that much experience. Fell did an outstanding job for us , the reason why he got extended. Therefore, we see him running up the seams more often.
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They ran them but Coutee's dumb ass consistently ran the wrong routes, so they moved Nuk into the slot more often to help out with this. This issue has been solved by adding a vet like Cobb who will be a huge upgrade over Carter/Coutee.

If healthy Warring is more talented than any TE in this draft. IMHO

He's just gotta stay healthy and learn the ways of the NFL.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
I have no idea why the discrepancies, but probably would have to defer to PFR's numbers.
Click to expand...
The Texans finished 12th in the NFL in total rushes and 20th in pass attempts. So I doubt that they are even close to leading the league, in rush % on 1st down. But, the offense does tilt toward the run more than league average, and any Texan fan can see that.

The Texans received a pretty nice contribution from Carlos Hyde last year. 1000+ yards on a 4.4 ypc. That was a career year from Hyde, and I think some of that can be attributed to the improvement overall on the O-line. Some of that can be credited to Hyde just getting regular touches. Either way, that production has to be replaced. Maybe that's David Johnson, in a perfect world. Or a rookie in the draft or a vet who becomes available after the draft becomes part of that equation. A good GM wouldn't put all of his eggs in one basket.

Not that I know where a good GM can be found.
 
Lucky said:
Based upon?

Reading the tea leaves (Fells re-signing), I'm thinking Surfer Dude might be in the O'Brien doghouse. Ask Jaelen Strong and Coutee what it's like in there.
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Based upon his play in college and his measurables. (Better than any TE in this class) He was able to stretch the seam with bad QB play at San Diego St. He also has very good hands. Dont know how good of a blocker he is.
 
steelbtexan said:
Based upon his play in college and his measurables. (Better than any TE in this class) He was able to stretch the seam with bad QB play at San Diego St. He also has very good hands. Dont know how good of a blocker he is.
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Come on. There are 4 TEs (at least) in this draft that have comparable measurables, with superior production. Surfer Boy was a reach then, and would be a reach now if taken in a similar spot. What's worse, it doesn't look lile Billy was on board with Gaine's reach. Surfer Boy was on O'Brien's list from the jump. Now, it looks like he'll never get a shot here.
 
Texansballer74 said:
Good post Doc. I didn't pull up the stat line. But man it surely did seem like we did.
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obriens teams 2 times have been top 5 in first down run % and are usually in the top 1/4 of all teams in that stat regardless of the volume - outlier year notwithstanding. One year doesn’t eliminate that. What is really the most damning thing is That when they do run on 1st down it’s usually a throw away dive or simple zone to keep things “on time”. It’s why fans run with the hyperbole. So your ‘eye test’ is justified. Check it:

www.riversmccown.com

Negative plays, the concept of first-down runs, and Bill O'Brien's Texans - riversmccown.com

Your Houston Texans are having, compared to 2018, a highly effective season running the football. They’re averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, which puts them fourth in the NFL. In 2018, that number was 4.3. Both numbers see a Deshaun Watson boost (Watson averages 5.7 yards per attempt for...
www.riversmccown.com
 
Lucky said:
Come on. There are 4 TEs (at least) in this draft that have comparable measurables, with superior production. Surfer Boy was a reach then, and would be a reach now if taken in a similar spot. What's worse, it doesn't look lile Billy was on board with Gaine's reach. Surfer Boy was on O'Brien's list from the jump. Now, it looks like he'll never get a shot here.
Click to expand...
BOB doghouse is not always permanent, he is trying to turn kids into pros. He let Keke have multiple shots, but let him know it was time to show up. If Warring did his pro level business last year and off season, I do believe BOB will give him a chance, but he is not banking on it as he has a full TE room. Whatever injury and such Warring got was a SMH to BOB, f'in rookie, and on IR. So he had most of last year and this offseason to get the message and do work. It is very silent about him though so not sure BOB is impressed with the "hard work" and teammate stuff he has done so could be another wasted third round pick, our specialty. I will keep some hope for now
 
Lucky said:
Come on. There are 4 TEs (at least) in this draft that have comparable measurables, with superior production. Surfer Boy was a reach then, and would be a reach now if taken in a similar spot. What's worse, it doesn't look lile Billy was on board with Gaine's reach. Surfer Boy was on O'Brien's list from the jump. Now, it looks like he'll never get a shot here.
Click to expand...

Who are they? Ran a 4.67 at 252. No TR at this yrs combine had close to the total workout that Warring did. Go check out the numbers.

You dont know this
 
Uncle Rico said:
obriens teams 2 times have been top 5 in first down run % and are usually in the top 1/4 of all teams in that stat regardless of the volume - outlier year notwithstanding. One year doesn’t eliminate that. What is really the most damning thing is That when they do run on 1st down it’s usually a throw away dive or simple zone to keep things “on time”. It’s why fans run with the hyperbole. So your ‘eye test’ is justified. Check it:

www.riversmccown.com

Negative plays, the concept of first-down runs, and Bill O'Brien's Texans - riversmccown.com

Your Houston Texans are having, compared to 2018, a highly effective season running the football. They’re averaging 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, which puts them fourth in the NFL. In 2018, that number was 4.3. Both numbers see a Deshaun Watson boost (Watson averages 5.7 yards per attempt for...
www.riversmccown.com
Click to expand...

Or it's a zone read where DW4 should keep the ball but hands off to Hyde instead.

DW4 was no threat to run in the zone read which is one reason why it looked like they were running it up the middle much more than they should've been.

Anyways, hopefully this changes with Kelly calling the plays.
 
steelbtexan said:
Or it's a zone read where DW4 should keep the ball but hands off to Hyde instead.

DW4 was no threat to run in the zone read which is one reason why it looked like they were running it up the middle much more than they should've been.

Anyways, hopefully this changes with Kelly calling the plays.
Click to expand...

Its' a feature of O'Brien's offense. Even with Miller before Watson was even drafted. What was the #1 complaint about the running game? Wasn't it running Miller a speed back up the middle?
 
steelbtexan said:
Who are they? Ran a 4.67 at 252. No TR at this yrs combine had close to the total workout that Warring did. Go check out the numbers.

You dont know this
Click to expand...
Kmet - 4.70 @262
Okwuegbunam - 4.49 @258
Hopkins - 4.66 @245
Harrison Bryant - 4.73 @243
Hunter Bryant -4.74 @248

All had comparable workouts. All had much more college production (and experience). All would go ahead of Warring in a draft. Warring would be at best the 7th TE off the board. Just like he was last year.
 
Earl34 said:
Its' a feature of O'Brien's offense. Even with Miller before Watson was even drafted. What was the #1 complaint about the running game? Wasn't it running Miller a speed back up the middle?
Click to expand...

Yes,

But the offense was changed to include RPO's which is what DW4 does best.
 
Lucky said:
Kmet - 4.70 @262
Okwuegbunam - 4.49 @258
Hopkins - 4.66 @245
Harrison Bryant - 4.73 @243
Hunter Bryant -4.74 @248

All had comparable workouts. All had much more college production (and experience). All would go ahead of Warring in a draft. Warring would be at best the 7th TE off the board. Just like he was last year.
Click to expand...

That's just 40 times and Albert O didn't do anything but the 40.

Hopkins is the only other 40 time better and that was only by 1/100 of a second. Look at the overall workout.
 
steelbtexan said:
Or it's a zone read where DW4 should keep the ball but hands off to Hyde instead.

DW4 was no threat to run in the zone read which is one reason why it looked like they were running it up the middle much more than they should've been.

Anyways, hopefully this changes with Kelly calling the plays.
Click to expand...
You really think Kelly will be calling the plays??
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Boy......could you imagine the internal shite-storm if Johnson were to fail his physical. How would you bring Hopkins back to Houston and have him give the team a productive season?
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Nuk ain't coming back.

BOB wanted him off of the team.

Changing the culture of the team.
 
Speedy said:
Show me the percentage of runs on 2nd and 10 after a pass on 1st down is incomplete. I'd bet that's 75% or higher.
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Cool piece that showed some tendencies. Last year wasnt as bad as years past in predictability, but a coach is who he is, hopefully Kelly doesnt carry over that bad habit.

www.cover1.net

Scouting the Houston Texans' Offense | Cover 1

With Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans on the horizon for the Buffalo Bills, Erik Turner scouts in-depth the Texans' balanced offense.
www.cover1.net www.cover1.net

What are their field position tendencies? (Run/Pass percentages)


Own 1-20 Yard Line
  • Run – 54%
  • Pass – 48%
Own 20-40 Yard Line
  • Run – 41%
  • Pass – 59%
Mid 41-41 Yard Line
  • Run – 42%
  • Pass – 58%
Opposite 40-21 Yard Line
  • Run – 39%
  • Pass – 61%
Red Zone 20-1 Yard Line
  • Run – 49%
  • Pass – 51%
What are their tendencies by down (Run/Pass percentages)?
1st down
  • Run – 44%
  • Pass – 56%
2nd down
  • Run – 39%
  • Pass – 61%
3rd down
  • Run – 22%
  • Pass – 78%
4th down
  • Run – 20%
  • Pass – 80%
Click to expand...
 
Uncle Rico said:
Cool piece that showed some tendencies. Last year wasnt as bad as years past in predictability, but a coach is who he is, hopefully Kelly doesnt carry over that bad habit.

www.cover1.net

Scouting the Houston Texans' Offense | Cover 1

With Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans on the horizon for the Buffalo Bills, Erik Turner scouts in-depth the Texans' balanced offense.
www.cover1.net www.cover1.net
Click to expand...

Where is the raw data for this? I’ve already shown the data that has the Texans running more than passing on 1st down. Makes all the other results questionable.
 
Lucky said:
Where is the raw data for this? I’ve already shown the data that has the Texans running more than passing on 1st down. Makes all the other results questionable.
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my gut instinct is to agree with you Luck, but i'd first need to figure out how PFR, this or any other outlet for that matter is plotting the plays, is there overlap and human error in charting behind the LOS passes as runs, or vice versa how many Deshaun scrambles goes into that format? I dont know, and Im a little too busy to dig into it right this second and such a big curve from one side of the argument to the other is puzzling - but maybe you or someone else can organize said data and the opponents put theirs into the pot and see what comes of it and why there is an anomoly.

I'd like to think its as easy as you put forth, but if you know the new NFL analytics landscape its still a little rough around the edges with plenty of self serving encapsulations, but why would an opponent scouting team not PFR as a form of creating a tendency identification system is curious, if PFR is the end all with the statistics end of things (which I would probably say they are). I'd probably start by removing all QB scrambles from the equation of it hasnt been done already. (again if it has I havent really cracked the egg open yet)
 
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