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David Johnson... welcome to houston

RGV82

Random guy
The ball was spreaded pretty good. Earl already posted those stats. They did not get rid of Nuk because of his targets like a few people continue to harp on. Obrien just got too emotional because the youngster wanted a raise with three years remaining on his contract.
I know this. That was my point. Tell this to steelbtexan.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Percentages of targets to Hopkins:

2019 - 28%
2018 - 32%
2017 - 33%
2016 - 26%
2015 - 31%
2014 - 26%

I'll go out on a limb and say that's right in line with every team's WR1, or at least those who have a true #1. And maybe it's just me, but it seems you'd want your better players to have the ball more. I know, sounds crazy.

So I don't know where this 1/2 nonsense is coming from. Actually I do, but fortunately I have that ignorance on ignore.
 

banned1976

All Pro
I haven’t weighed in on David Johnson much. The only person that can sell me on David Johnson is David Johnson. If he has a blah season I’m going to do what I have been doing this morning and scrolling past the excuses.

Until he gets on the field and hopefully produces to an All Pro level again, to me he is a jag that got traded for a 3x All Pro WR in one of the most lopsided trades in NFL history. Forget about what he was running behind last year, the self described “dings” he was playing through, the system, the coach, and this, and that. He had better be big time game changer from the jump.

Until then, I’m not spending 1 minute reading justifications for the terrible trade that brought him here. And I’m not waiting a year, or two, or three for this to all play out. Two vets were traded for each other (and the Texans moved up 17 spots in the 2nd round which means under O’Brien he’ll likely either be sitting on the bench or stashed away on IR for the season). Let’s see how both of them do in year ONE. I have an inkling of an idea what that’s going to look like.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
What year are you referring to and why just include WR targets? TE and RB targets are just as important. Last year Hopkins had 150 targets, and there were over 500+ pass targets total. Not even close to 1/2. We also had a decent run game (Hyde and Duke), which did not leave Hopkins as the entire offense.
CnD posted a stat that said there were 333 passes targeted to WR's, 150 of those went to Nuk. The difference between the 500+ and the 333 are the 170+ throws to TE's/RB's.

If a WR was targeted then over 1/2 the time it was thrown to Nuk. Using your 500 number almost 1/3 of the overall targets were to Nuk and he only caught 2/3's of those targets. Those numbers aren't good enough.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Percentages of targets to Hopkins:

2019 - 28%
2018 - 32%
2017 - 33%
2016 - 26%
2015 - 31%
2014 - 26%

I'll go out on a limb and say that's right in line with every team's WR1, or at least those who have a true #1. And maybe it's just me, but it seems you'd want your better players to have the ball more. I know, sounds crazy.

So I don't know where this 1/2 nonsense is coming from. Actually I do, but fortunately I have that ignorance on ignore.
How many WR targets vs how many WR targets Nuk got?

Go back and look at CnD's chart.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I haven’t weighed in on David Johnson much. The only person that can sell me on David Johnson is David Johnson. If he has a blah season I’m going to do what I have been doing this morning and scrolling past the excuses.

Until he gets on the field and hopefully produces to an All Pro level again, to me he is a jag that got traded for a 3x All Pro WR in one of the most lopsided trades in NFL history. Forget about what he was running behind last year, the self described “dings” he was playing through, the system, the coach, and this, and that. He had better be big time game changer from the jump.

Until then, I’m not spending 1 minute reading justifications for the terrible trade that brought him here. And I’m not waiting a year, or two, or three for this to all play out. Two vets were traded for each other (and the Texans moved up 17 spots in the 2nd round which means under O’Brien he’ll likely either be sitting on the bench or stashed away on IR for the season). Let’s see how both of them do in year ONE. I have an inkling of an idea what that’s going to look like.
Actually the trade was Cooks/DJ/Moving up 17 spots.
 

RGV82

Random guy
CnD posted a stat that said there were 333 passes targeted to WR's, 150 of those went to Nuk. The difference between the 500+ and the 333 are the 170+ throws to TE's/RB's.

If a WR was targeted then over 1/2 the time it was thrown to Nuk. Using your 500 number almost 1/3 of the overall targets were to Nuk and he only caught 2/3's of those targets. Those numbers aren't good enough.
Why does it matter to you if the pass is thrown to WR or TE/RB? The more dynamic the passing game the better. If another team spreads their passing out more evenly between their WRs but doesn’t utilize their TE or RB, doesn’t make it any better. Pass distribution is all that matters, not which position it’s passed to. Do you think Chiefs fans are complaining that Kelce is so heavily targeted??
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Why does it matter to you if the pass is thrown to WR or TE/RB? The more dynamic the passing game the better. If another team spreads their passing out more evenly between their WRs but doesn’t utilize their TE or RB, doesn’t make it any better. Pass distribution is all that matters, not which position it’s passed to. Do you think Chiefs fans are complaining that Kelce is so heavily targeted??

Fuller has over 70 targets. If he would’ve played more games he could’ve easily had 100+. Nuk probably would’ve had 135 .

The reason why I stated that because you can tell Watson was very confident passing the ball to Fuller. His route running was top notch.
 

RGV82

Random guy
Fuller has over 70 targets. If he would’ve played more games he could’ve easily had 100+. Nuk probably would’ve had 135 .

The reason why I stated that because you can tell Watson was very confident passing the ball to Fuller. His route running was top notch.
I did not question anything you said. Agreed with your stance. I was quoting and disagreeing with another poster.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Why does it matter to you if the pass is thrown to WR or TE/RB? The more dynamic the passing game the better. If another team spreads their passing out more evenly between their WRs but doesn’t utilize their TE or RB, doesn’t make it any better. Pass distribution is all that matters, not which position it’s passed to. Do you think Chiefs fans are complaining that Kelce is so heavily targeted??
Agreed,

I dont care, next season if healthy and if DW4 plays well (Unlike the last 5 games of the season.) the offense will be much more dynamic.
 

Earl34

Veteran
Can someone tell Sean Payton to trade Michael Thomas immediately? Thomas had an intolerable 67% of the Saints WR targets.
Exactly. The Saints are another example of relying on their WR1. After Thomas, their WR2 (Ginn) had 56 targets. Fuller (71) had more targets and even our WR3/Stills (55) had as many targets. All WR1 are targeted similar to Hopkins. It's what makes them WR1. All good QBs have a WR or TE that is considered their go-to guy.

@CloakNNNdagger posted a stat about Hopkins' and the WR targets. I don't think CnD's intent was to take a shot at Hopkins or Watson, but it was parroted to take a swipe at them. In the end, the narrative ranks as one of the more asinine narratives in the history of this forum. We should not waste another second trying to show how idiotic it is.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Exactly. The Saints are another example of relying on their WR1. After Thomas, their WR2 (Ginn) had 56 targets. Fuller (71) had more targets and even our WR3/Stills (55) had as many targets. All WR1 are targeted similar to Hopkins. It's what makes them WR1. All good QBs have a WR or TE that is considered their go-to guy.

@CloakNNNdagger posted a stat about Hopkins' and the WR targets. I don't think CnD's intent was to take a shot at Hopkins or Watson, but it was parroted to take a swipe at them. In the end, the narrative ranks as one of the more asinine narratives in the history of this forum. We should not waste another second trying to show how idiotic it is.
And the Saints got just as far as the Texans did in the playoffs last yr.

Good thing is we dont have to talk about this anymore.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
And the Saints got just as far as the Texans did in the playoffs last yr.

Good thing is we dont have to talk about this anymore.
Hey TB what was wrong about that statement?

BTW, look for the Saints to add a playmaking WR in addition to Thomas/Sanders in the draft. You wont see that kind of discrepancies in the Saints target shares. It doesn't work because no matter how great the WR is the offense can become very predictable.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Hey TB what was wrong about that statement?

BTW, look for the Saints to add a playmaking WR in addition to Thomas/Sanders in the draft. You wont see that kind of discrepancies in the Saints target shares. It doesn't work because no matter how great the WR is the offense can become very predictable.
Difference is Thomas can create separation regardless of coverage/double teams and Brees can fit it in
 

Mangler

All Pro
Man, I was watching one of David Johnson’s Facebook live videos and, dang! The fan base can sure be ruthless. David comes off as genuinely happy to be out of Arizona, and ready to show what he can do for the Texans but it seems like a lot of the fans are taking their Nuk trade frustrations out on him. It’s not his fault O’Brien did such a lousy job. I hope he balls out here in Houston. He’s an upgraded Carlos Hyde (when healthy) and we saw what Hyde was able to do here.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Man, I was watching one of David Johnson’s Facebook live videos and, man! The fan base can sure be ruthless. David comes off as genuinely happy to be out of Arizona, and ready to show what he can do for the Texans but it seems like a lot of the fans are taking their Nuk trade frustrations out on him. It’s not his fault O’Brien did such a lousy job. I hope he balls out here in Houston. He’s an upgraded Carlos Hyde (when healthy) and we saw what Hyde was able to do here.
If he balls out/Cooks stays healthy and they hit on 40, then the Texans have won this trade.

This is a Longshot but it could happen.
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
Man, I was watching one of David Johnson’s Facebook live videos and, dang! The fan base can sure be ruthless. David comes off as genuinely happy to be out of Arizona, and ready to show what he can do for the Texans but it seems like a lot of the fans are taking their Nuk trade frustrations out on him. It’s not his fault O’Brien did such a lousy job. I hope he balls out here in Houston. He’s an upgraded Carlos Hyde (when healthy) and we saw what Hyde was able to do here.
His agent and the team should have known it was too early for a meet the fans chat.
 

RGV82

Random guy
If he balls out/Cooks stays healthy and they hit on 40, then the Texans have won this trade.

This is a Longshot but it could happen.
I just hope BOB figures out a way to use 2 RBs (David and Duke) who are good on passing 3rd down situations - it was much easier for him using Hyde and Duke, where Hyde was just a 2 down RB.
 

Earl34

Veteran
Another concern is Johnson 2016 workload and the hope that he returns to his 2016 form. However, when you consider he carried the ball 293 times and also caught 80 passes, he joined the 370 touches club.

Here are some interesting notes on RBs with that many touches in a season:

• No player in history has ever played more than 59 consecutive regular-season games immediately following a 370-carry season (George holds that record). If that sounds insignificant to you, consider that Thomas Jones (71) has a longer active streak of games played, and he'll be 32 when the 2010 season starts, or more than a year older than George was when George's ended.

• Every one of the 28 370-carry seasons has resulted in at least 208 fantasy points. Those running backs, however, have tallied at least 208 fantasy points in any of the five proceeding seasons only 26 times combined.

• Only three running backs managed a better fantasy season than their 370-carry campaigns within five years of that campaign: Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith (who did it twice) and Tomlinson (who did it four times). Guess what those three have in common? (Hint: They're really, really good.)

• Of the 28 370-carry campaigns, 19 times the running back failed to score even 80 percent of the fantasy points totaled in that campaign within any of the following five seasons. Nine didn't even reach 60 percent.

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10curseof370
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
I just hope BOB figures out a way to use 2 RBs (David and Duke) who are good on passing 3rd down situations - it was much easier for him using Hyde and Duke, where Hyde was just a 2 down RB.
Duke is the more efficient Johnson on 3rd down. Cutting into Duke’s 3rd down snaps makes him almost worthless. What should happen is more passes to David on 1st and 2nd, rather than dives into the middle.
 

RGV82

Random guy
Another concern is Johnson 2016 workload and the hope that he returns to his 2016 form. However, when you consider he carried the ball 293 times and also caught 80 passes, he joined the 370 touches club.

Here are some interesting notes on RBs with that many touches in a season:

• No player in history has ever played more than 59 consecutive regular-season games immediately following a 370-carry season (George holds that record). If that sounds insignificant to you, consider that Thomas Jones (71) has a longer active streak of games played, and he'll be 32 when the 2010 season starts, or more than a year older than George was when George's ended.

• Every one of the 28 370-carry seasons has resulted in at least 208 fantasy points. Those running backs, however, have tallied at least 208 fantasy points in any of the five proceeding seasons only 26 times combined.

• Only three running backs managed a better fantasy season than their 370-carry campaigns within five years of that campaign: Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith (who did it twice) and Tomlinson (who did it four times). Guess what those three have in common? (Hint: They're really, really good.)

• Of the 28 370-carry campaigns, 19 times the running back failed to score even 80 percent of the fantasy points totaled in that campaign within any of the following five seasons. Nine didn't even reach 60 percent.

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10curseof370
Good post. Your stats back up my stance and point I have been making all along - that the 300 carry, 80 reception year will never happen again. Used and abused. He definitely can be productive for us, but will NEVER return to the 2016 form. He was the Cards ENTIRE offense that year. We have too many other weapons to rely on a broken down RB to center our offense.
 

RGV82

Random guy
Another concern is Johnson 2016 workload and the hope that he returns to his 2016 form. However, when you consider he carried the ball 293 times and also caught 80 passes, he joined the 370 touches club.

Here are some interesting notes on RBs with that many touches in a season:

• No player in history has ever played more than 59 consecutive regular-season games immediately following a 370-carry season (George holds that record). If that sounds insignificant to you, consider that Thomas Jones (71) has a longer active streak of games played, and he'll be 32 when the 2010 season starts, or more than a year older than George was when George's ended.

• Every one of the 28 370-carry seasons has resulted in at least 208 fantasy points. Those running backs, however, have tallied at least 208 fantasy points in any of the five proceeding seasons only 26 times combined.

• Only three running backs managed a better fantasy season than their 370-carry campaigns within five years of that campaign: Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith (who did it twice) and Tomlinson (who did it four times). Guess what those three have in common? (Hint: They're really, really good.)

• Of the 28 370-carry campaigns, 19 times the running back failed to score even 80 percent of the fantasy points totaled in that campaign within any of the following five seasons. Nine didn't even reach 60 percent.

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10curseof370
To add to this story, the NY Jets found this out the hard way as well with LeVeon Bell last year.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Another concern is Johnson 2016 workload and the hope that he returns to his 2016 form. However, when you consider he carried the ball 293 times and also caught 80 passes, he joined the 370 touches club.

Here are some interesting notes on RBs with that many touches in a season:

• No player in history has ever played more than 59 consecutive regular-season games immediately following a 370-carry season (George holds that record). If that sounds insignificant to you, consider that Thomas Jones (71) has a longer active streak of games played, and he'll be 32 when the 2010 season starts, or more than a year older than George was when George's ended.

• Every one of the 28 370-carry seasons has resulted in at least 208 fantasy points. Those running backs, however, have tallied at least 208 fantasy points in any of the five proceeding seasons only 26 times combined.

• Only three running backs managed a better fantasy season than their 370-carry campaigns within five years of that campaign: Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith (who did it twice) and Tomlinson (who did it four times). Guess what those three have in common? (Hint: They're really, really good.)

• Of the 28 370-carry campaigns, 19 times the running back failed to score even 80 percent of the fantasy points totaled in that campaign within any of the following five seasons. Nine didn't even reach 60 percent.

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10curseof370
Not promising, but since he didn't carry the ball much the last couple yrs hopefully he's healed up and ready to go like he says he is.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Another concern is Johnson 2016 workload and the hope that he returns to his 2016 form. However, when you consider he carried the ball 293 times and also caught 80 passes, he joined the 370 touches club.

Here are some interesting notes on RBs with that many touches in a season:

• No player in history has ever played more than 59 consecutive regular-season games immediately following a 370-carry season (George holds that record). If that sounds insignificant to you, consider that Thomas Jones (71) has a longer active streak of games played, and he'll be 32 when the 2010 season starts, or more than a year older than George was when George's ended.

• Every one of the 28 370-carry seasons has resulted in at least 208 fantasy points. Those running backs, however, have tallied at least 208 fantasy points in any of the five proceeding seasons only 26 times combined.

• Only three running backs managed a better fantasy season than their 370-carry campaigns within five years of that campaign: Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith (who did it twice) and Tomlinson (who did it four times). Guess what those three have in common? (Hint: They're really, really good.)

• Of the 28 370-carry campaigns, 19 times the running back failed to score even 80 percent of the fantasy points totaled in that campaign within any of the following five seasons. Nine didn't even reach 60 percent.

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10curseof370
Lol, you picked a fantasy stat article to bolster your point? Lol, this **** doesn't even prove your point....its a cherry picked stat to begin with starting out with "59 consecutive regular-season games"....I guess if those players don't miss any games for the next 3.5 years after they hit 370 touches, whatever they did doesn't matter stats wise and they sucked? Get outta here with this B.S. bro. LeVeon Bell had 2 great seasons of 350 plus touches after 2014. Arian Foster after his breakout campaign in 2010...... You're saying you wouldn't want his 2011 & 2012 production & he sucked those years?
 

Earl34

Veteran
Lol, you picked a fantasy stat article to bolster your point? Lol, this **** doesn't even prove your point....its a cherry picked stat to begin with starting out with "59 consecutive regular-season games"....I guess if those players don't miss any games for the next 3.5 years after they hit 370 touches, whatever they did doesn't matter stats wise and they sucked? Get outta here with this B.S. bro. LeVeon Bell had 2 great seasons of 350 plus touches after 2014. Arian Foster after his breakout campaign in 2010...... You're saying you wouldn't want his 2011 & 2012 production & he sucked those years?
LOL. You're missing the point and that's okay. This wasn't about fantasy stats. It was more about the comments of Johnson returning to his 2016 form and that historically, after 370 touches season, RBs are more likely to become injury prone or not duplicate those numbers. I'm not saying anything else. Just a historical perspective.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
LOL. You're missing the point and that's okay. This wasn't about fantasy stats. It was more about the comments of Johnson returning to his 2016 form and that historically, after 370 touches season, RBs are more likely to become injury prone or not duplicate those numbers. I'm not saying anything else. Just a historical perspective.
No I got your point. Where we depart is in thinking that he has to return to that form to be very valuable to this team.
 

Earl34

Veteran
No I got your point. Where we depart is in thinking that he has to return to that form to be very valuable to this team.
If you are not one of the posters trying to justify the trade by making assumptions that he will return to 2016, then we are not that far apart. If not his 2016 numbers, what numbers would you expect from him this year?
 

mws

Waterboy
Top 11 RB cap hits in 2020.

Le'Veon Bell - Jets - $15,468,750
David Johnson - Texans - $11,156,250
Ezekiel Elliott - Cowboys - $10,900,000
Derrick Henry - Titans - $10,278,000
Leonard Fournette - Jaguars - $8,638,917
Saquon Barkley - Giants - $8,597,659
Kenyan Drake - Cardinals - $8,483,000
Christian McCaffrey - Panthers - $7,794,782
Melvin Gordon - Broncos - $7,000,000
Todd Gurley - Falcons - $5,500,000
Mark Ingram - Ravens - $5,333,333
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
If you are not one of the posters trying to justify the trade by making assumptions that he will return to 2016, then we are not that far apart. If not his 2016 numbers, what numbers would you expect from him this year?
2K is special season for any RB and most guys who hit it only hit it once in their careers. So by that metric it’s silly to feel like he has to get back to that to justify his value in the trade.

I’ve said in at least 1 post that I think 1400-1500 total yards is well within reach for him and that would be a significant upgrade over what Carlos Hyde gave us in 2019 at the position. Split it out how u like but DJ pretty much put that up in AZ in 2018 when he was still getting the touches. Putting up 1400-1500 total yards last year would’ve put him top 10 in all purpose yards if he would’ve gotten the touches.

The major difference in AZ as opposed to here is that He will not have to be all world here with the weapons we have.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Top 11 RB cap hits in 2020.

Le'Veon Bell - Jets - $15,468,750
David Johnson - Texans - $11,156,250
Ezekiel Elliott - Cowboys - $10,900,000
Derrick Henry - Titans - $10,278,000
Leonard Fournette - Jaguars - $8,638,917
Saquon Barkley - Giants - $8,597,659
Kenyan Drake - Cardinals - $8,483,000
Christian McCaffrey - Panthers - $7,794,782
Melvin Gordon - Broncos - $7,000,000
Todd Gurley - Falcons - $5,500,000
Mark Ingram - Ravens - $5,333,333
gurley’s cap hit is like 12 million. The Rams are paying a **** ton of his guaranteed money from the contract he signed with them.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
How come sportrac says his cap hit is 9mil in 2021?

His dead cap is only 2mil, so I don't suspect him to be on the roster in 2021.
This is why this deal is better than meets the eye. If DJ plays like he has before, he's worth the $$$$ and you get a bargain in 2021. If he's washed the caphit is minimal.
 

zshawn10

All Pro
Deandre with the shade:


Perhaps the most transparent shot at the Texans was when Hopkins asked his followers which division is the NFL’s best.
When the AFC South was brought up, Hopkins said “Tennessee good. Colts good.” Then he moved on to the next division, nothing about the Texans.
 


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