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Derek Stingley vs. Sauce Gardner

Mr teX said:
yeah well, did CND predict a clean player like Jaycee Horn was gonna come into the league and immediately break his foot and miss 90% of his rookie year? Then turn around in year 2 and miss another 3 games…then turn around in year 3 and has already missed 1 game?

Everyone was all worried about Tua’s ankle when he came in. CND explained the tightrope procedure and how it would affect him. Well as it turns out, the thing that has threatened his career has been completely unrelated to that…it’s been concussions. Don’t think he had any history of those at bama.

What about Jeff Okudah? Clean as they come coming out of college. Nothing but injuries since hitting the league.

Trying to predict how injury prone a guy will be when he hits the league based on what his history was in college is AT BEST an educated guess. It’s a different more physical game than college. You guy act like these prognostications are certainties & they’re far from it.
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You're talking 🍎 to 🍊
CNND was talking about the chance of an injury that could happen in the future due to a previous injury.

That's similar to.preconditions, and why insurance companies don't want to sell insurance to those people

Or if you're a smoker, your insurance is going through the roof.
 
Mr teX said:
eh, I don’t think it matters where the guy is picked, it’s whether you’re expecting contributions.

in this case trading down in the 1st round…even if we were able to trade down and get him in the teens, with us he still would’ve been expected to be a major contributor to this team in the midst of this rebuild….and even still, people would still be saying what they’re saying and comparing him to Sauce…” we could’ve stayed where we were and just got Sauce”..
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Why do teams tank?
 
steelbtexan said:
No excuses necessary, that was a Lovie pick promised by Cal, Lovie worked out both Stingley and Sauce, Caserio didn't, you think that was a coincidence that Stingley was the pick? Nope, Caserio got Lovie's guy. Just like Caserio went out and got Ryans guy Anderson. Lets hope Anderson works out better than Stingley has.

I'm going to keep being true to myself as I'm quite certain you will remain true to yourself too, but thanks for the advice.
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No excuse.

Back then we said we (including you) said that we'll see what Caserio can do with the haul from the Watson's trade.
Then you absolved Caserio of all responsibilities regarding a number of them.

That's the biggest fraud of an excuse I ever saw.
Yes, sure, you're true to yourself.
Talking out of both sides of the mouth as usual.
:runaway: :runaway:
 
Mr teX said:
People who think the GM has anything to do with a player and how often he gets injured…shits hilarious to me.
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It not hilarious when the GM isn’t properly taking into account a players injury history and future injury risk. Stingley missed half his games in college, that should have factored heavily, they took the risk and got burned, that’s squarely on the GM for blowing by that stop sign.


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Mr teX said:
there’s no way to know how a guy’s going to fair injury wise when he gets in the NFL. People can guess, make assumptions but until they step on an NFL & go thru the rigors of an NFL season, you just don’t know. All these guys are playing with something by week 5 & what it comes down to is how willing a guy is to play injured is the real question. Some guys are willing to do it more than others.

Besides, plenty of guys with no significant injury histories come in and become injury prone.

its just what happens when you play a game as physical as the NFL.
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That’s like saying if I flip a coin, I don’t know if it’s gonna be heads, sure, but I know it’s a 50/50 chance, I can characterize the uncertainty. So following if a player has missed half his games in college vs a player who played every game, I can infer that the player who missed half his games in college will PROBABLY be injury prone in the pros, the player who wasn’t injured will PROBABLY be we more healthy than the one who wasn’t, yeah I don’t know for sure, there’s uncertainty, but if you can’t handle and properly navigate uncertainty you have NO business being a GM. The draft trade typifies this, they didn’t properly value their pick with relation to the strength of the team, I can go on and on, yes there are few givens but you have to account for uncertainty properly, it has to be on your mind when your the GM, unexpected stuff happens all the time, you have to have plans in place, you have to stay at maximum flexibility to adjust. Casserio had done none of this.


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steelbtexan said:
No excuses necessary, that was a Lovie pick promised by Cal, Lovie worked out both Stingley and Sauce, Caserio didn't, you think that was a coincidence that Stingley was the pick? Nope, Caserio got Lovie's guy. Just like Caserio went out and got Ryans guy Anderson. Lets hope Anderson works out better than Stingley has.

I'm going to keep being true to myself as I'm quite certain you will remain true to yourself too, but thanks for the advice.
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Lovie and Demeco aren’t doctors. They have no specific medical expertise, it’s the GM’s responsibility to manage medical risk/evaluation and properly take it into account. There is no reason a GM should defer to the coach when it comes to these things. He should have the final say. It’s a complete cop out to remove Casserio from any responsibility on that matter, now if Stingley was terrible and couldn’t hack it when he played that would be different, however, that’s not the case, he’s hurt like he always been, and not like Nick Chubb, these are non contact soft tissue injuries.


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Whether it's true or not, I'm going with the assumption that Caserio got Lovie who he wanted, and is now getting DeMeco who he wants. If that's actually the case, then the drafts will start getting better. Supposedly. In any case last years 1st round picks were disasters, but this year's first round picks are looking up.
 
jradMIT said:
That’s like saying if I flip a coin, I don’t know if it’s gonna be heads, sure, but I know it’s a 50/50 chance, I can characterize the uncertainty. So following if a player has missed half his games in college vs a player who played every game, I can infer that the player who missed half his games in college will PROBABLY be injury prone in the pros, the player who wasn’t injured will PROBABLY be we more healthy than the one who wasn’t, yeah I don’t know for sure, there’s uncertainty, but if you can’t handle and properly navigate uncertainty you have NO business being a GM. The draft trade typifies this, they didn’t properly value their pick with relation to the strength of the team, I can go on and on, yes there are few givens but you have to account for uncertainty properly, it has to be on your mind when your the GM, unexpected stuff happens all the time, you have to have plans in place, you have to stay at maximum flexibility to adjust. Casserio had done none of this.


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you can “infer” a lot about a lot of things. At the end of the day tho, you’re just guessing.

the definition of uncertainty is you don’t know..so how can you “properly” account for it?

in your example flipping a coin there’s a 50% CERTAINTY that you’re going to get a heads or tails…that’s not the same thing as predicting whether a guy is going to be healthy in the NFL. The probability is not only much more varied, but what you’re also doing is painting yourself in a corner. The only reason this is even a discussion is b/c there was another capable cb available and selected right after him. But let’s talk about the other options they could’ve been taken. Noone’s talking about Evan Neal or Kayvon Thibodaeux…both of which are looking like nothing special…It’s just hindsight thinking.

and you can’t always have a plan in place. 2019 we thought we had our franchise qb locked up for the next 4 years…what plan could you have had in place as a GM to deal with what eventually happened the next year?

its unrealistic to think that there’s a contingency for every scenario..especially with draft prospects.
 
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76Texan said:
You're talking 🍎 to 🍊
CNND was talking about the chance of an injury that could happen in the future due to a previous injury.

That's similar to.preconditions, and why insurance companies don't want to sell insurance to those people

Or if you're a smoker, your insurance is going through the roof.
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It’s all still a guess tho buddy.
 
jradMIT said:
It not hilarious when the GM isn’t properly taking into account a players injury history and future injury risk. Stingley missed half his games in college, that should have factored heavily, they took the risk and got burned, that’s squarely on the GM for blowing by that stop sign.


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Lol, how do u “properly” do that? The best you can say is don’t take said player here. Ok When?

What’s really the difference between taking a super talented but raw player vs a super talented but one with an injury history? The risk is the same..high draft pick bust.

Yet teams do the former all the time and no one really bats an eye. This year it was Anthony Richardson. Last year it was Javon Walker.

I’ll tell u what the difference is..it’s how you view it…nothing more. Folks have been thoroughly convinced of things that truly don’t really have a correlation with one another.
 
jradMIT said:
Lovie and Demeco aren’t doctors. They have no specific medical expertise, it’s the GM’s responsibility to manage medical risk/evaluation and properly take it into account. There is no reason a GM should defer to the coach when it comes to these things. He should have the final say. It’s a complete cop out to remove Casserio from any responsibility on that matter, now if Stingley was terrible and couldn’t hack it when he played that would be different, however, that’s not the case, he’s hurt like he always been, and not like Nick Chubb, these are non contact soft tissue injuries.


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Agreed

But that's not the way the Texans work. Caserio gets the players the HC wants. This includes Lovie and Ryans. This still goes on today Ryans wanted WA and Caserio is the guy who makes it happen. It's called a GM and HC working together. Lynch and Shanny do the same thing for the 49ers. I know Texans fans aren't used to this setup after the RS/BOB yrs.
 
Mr teX said:
you can “infer” a lot about a lot of things. At the end of the day tho, you’re just guessing.

the definition of uncertainty is you don’t know..so how can you “properly” account for it?

in your example flipping a coin there’s a 50% CERTAINTY that you’re going to get a heads or tails…that’s not the same thing as predicting whether a guy is going to be healthy in the NFL. The probability is not only much more varied, but what you’re also doing is painting yourself in a corner. The only reason this is even a discussion is b/c there was another capable cb available and selected right after him. But let’s talk about the other options they could’ve been taken. It’s hindsight thinking.

and you can’t always have a plan in place. 2019 we thought we had our franchise qb locked up for the next 4 years…what plan could you have had in place as a GM to deal with what eventually happened the next year?

its unrealistic to think that there’s a contingency for every scenario..especially with draft prospects.
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The coin flip was a simple example to demonstrate, that we don’t have certainty, but we understand the possibilities and we understand their probabilities. Yes the prediction of injuries is much more complex, but you can certainly assess that uncertainty by looking at the available information. The player’s injury history, games missed etc certainly is available and with that you can infer on some level their relative level of injury risk compared to other players or drafted players as a whole. You can certainly infer by past experience and data the expected level of availability based on those missed games, and then let that enter a player’s valuation. At some point the %availability in college should devalue a player,

You talk about the DW4 situation like we are talking about extremely unlikely situations. Derek Stingley being injured isn’t a very unlikely scenario, any player being injured or out isn’t extremely unlikely. The Texans winning 5 games or less (giving Arizona a high pick) isn’t an extremely unlikely. You have to plan around the uncertainty not throw your hands up and cry uncle, that is why you stay flexible. What I mean by flexibility is understand the uncertainty and be in a position to adjust accordingly. All in all we weren’t blind to the fact Stingley was basically available for half or less his games in college. He is hurt again in a non contact soft tissue way. Was it predictable to certainty? No, but it is not like his history didn’t scream this was a distinct possibility, and that should have been accounted for.
You don’t have to have a contingency for every thing, but distinct possibilities, yes you should plan around those and let those enter into present decisions.

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Mr teX said:
Lol, how do u “properly” do that? The best you can say is don’t take said player here. Ok When?

What’s really the difference between taking a super talented but raw player vs a super talented but one with an injury history? The risk is the same..high draft pick bust.

Yet teams do the former all the time and no one really bats an eye. This year it was Anthony Richardson. Last year it was Javon Walker.

I’ll tell u what the difference is..it’s how you view it…nothing more. Folks have been thoroughly convinced of things that truly don’t really have a correlation with one another.
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I agree with the raw draft risk, they are both risks that have to be managed and enter the draft valuation process. I’d be complaining in the same way if Stingley was a raw guy who had mediocre tape at a small college with crazy measurables. The Texans seem to have ignored all kinds of risks left and right.


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Some folks don’t understand risk management at all. That seemingly includes our GM.

I like Nick personally. He’s an interesting, smart, guy. But as a GM, he’s on very thin ice. For his sake, cJ and Will need to ball out big time.
 
Porky said:
I like Nick personally. He’s an interesting, smart, guy. But as a GM, he’s on very thin ice. For his sake, cJ and Will need to ball out big time.
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This is 100% my opinion but my gut tells me the Texans are probably through with quick firings for a while. I expect more of a Smith/Kubiak kind of regime with Ryans/Caserio than either of them being fired in the near future. Hopefully for us the Texans faith in them will be proved in the long run.
 
The conversation isn't over but it's one step closer. Every hard-core and broke d*ck draft nic wanted sauce. I don't hate Caserio, but this is another example of him trying like hell to be the smartest guy in the room.
 
jradMIT said:
Lovie and Demeco aren’t doctors. They have no specific medical expertise, it’s the GM’s responsibility to manage medical risk/evaluation and properly take it into account. There is no reason a GM should defer to the coach when it comes to these things. He should have the final say. It’s a complete cop out to remove Casserio from any responsibility on that matter, now if Stingley was terrible and couldn’t hack it when he played that would be different, however, that’s not the case, he’s hurt like he always been, and not like Nick Chubb, these are non contact soft tissue injuries.


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Your assumption that GM "should have the final decision" and the unknown fact if Caserio did make the final decision has been the discussion since Stingley was selected. Should and does are spelled differently.
We can guess based on what information we have and believe. Nick is not going anywhere unless our two round 1s from 2024 fail miserably. IMO, a highly likely injury to either WA or Stroud would give Caserio another year.
 
thunderkyss said:
Is it just me, or is 6-8 weeks a bit extreme for a hammy?


@CloakNNNdagger
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Not when you've already had a Grade II to end last season while esssentially missing 8 games.............then having a hard long rehab throughout the offseason with some setbacks prior to being able to participate in OTAs. Intermittent mild tightness continued into the season. Now he has another serious hamstring tear within ~a year, and usually the second hamstring tear in that period of time is more severe. There shouldn't really be a doubt why he would be expected to have another long rehab, especially since the mechanics of the Lisfranc foot still hangs as an ominous cloud.
 
jradMIT said:
Lovie and Demeco aren’t doctors. They have no specific medical expertise, it’s the GM’s responsibility to manage medical risk/evaluation and properly take it into account. There is no reason a GM should defer to the coach when it comes to these things. He should haveN the final say. It’s a complete cop out to remove Casserio from any responsibility on that matter, now if Stingley was terrible and couldn’t hack it when he played that would be different, however, that’s not the case, he’s hurt like he always been, and not like Nick Chubb, these are non contact soft tissue injuries.


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Neither is Caserio a doctor. Stingley doesn't go out there without the clearance by the team physician.
 
powda said:
The conversation isn't over but it's one step closer. Every hard-core and broke d*ck draft nic wanted sauce. I don't hate Caserio, but this is another example of him trying like hell to be the smartest guy in the room.
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Seems like Cal suffers from the same complex.


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CloakNNNdagger said:
Neither is Caserio a doctor. Stingley doesn't go out there without the clearance by the team physician.
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Does the medical come back in a binary yes or no? Or do they lay out a more complex report as I have seen you post with a risk assessment? Serious question, what does clearance mean exactly? What I am getting at is there something beyond whether a player is currently healthy or not? Does it assess using the examination and medical history, future injury risk?


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jradMIT said:
Does the medical come back in a binary yes or no? Or do they lay out a more complex report as I have seen you post with a risk assessment? Serious question, what does clearance mean exactly? What I am getting at is there something beyond whether a player is currently healthy or not? Does it assess using the examination and medical history, future injury risk?


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Clearance in this context is that the injury is adequately rehabbed and is not likely to re-injure beyond the known risks for the situation. For example, a hamstring can be rehabbed, but has a 30% chance of recurring within a year.........a Grade II hamstring is not adequately rehabbed in 1 week and the player should not be cleared.
 
MRI's don't accurately predict return to play for hamstrings. Physical exams and symptoms don't always accurately predict return to play. Giving pretty well established adequate rest and rehab lengths are not fool-proof, but is an intelligent rule/guideline. The problem comes when everyone is trying to find ways to unrealistically shortcut the healing process.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Cal gave Lovie his first round pick of the litter in return for becoming the new HC. Caserio was bypassed altogether in that decision.
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Going to veer slightly off topic, but this seems an appropriate opportunity to ask about the 15th pick. My understanding has been this was a Warhop pick. Do you have any info on this selection?
 
Number19 said:
Going to veer slightly off topic, but this seems an appropriate opportunity to ask about the 15th pick. My understanding has been this was a Warhop pick. Do you have any info on this selection?
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See how this is going ? So basically Caserio didn't have any say on any picks?
 
Number19 said:
Why do you think that? You are the only one I know who has suggested this.
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I know about as much as the sources on this board. Stingley not working out? That was Lovie pick. Green not working out? That was Warhop pick. It's an endless road of shifting blame without any basic sense. Again, if Lovie says they need to get better in the secondary, that's fine with taking a cb as long as you choose the right one. Building the trenches is fine also as long as you choose the right one. 4 cbs taken in the 1st rd and the Texans drafted the wrong one.
 
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leebigeztx said:
I'm not buying that. There is nowhere in Lovie Smith DNA that looks at Stingley vs Gardener and chooses Stingley.
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During that draft, I saw reports that Lovie was in love with Stingley's breakout season and thought he could return to that. Lovie had no concept of the injury. Doctors told him what he wanted to hear.
 
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