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2023 Texans NFL Projection/Ranking
- Thread starter OptimisticTexan
- Start date
Larry, Mo & Curly.
His college tapes tell why he was drafted in the third round.
As a rookie, his stats were inflated playing against some porous defenses or one that was depleted by Covid, or one that had pulled many starters.
Mills has always been Mills.
A backup QB
The Texans spent a lot of draft capital for Stroud and Anderson.
They did not want to stay with Mills.
Why?
Texansballer74
The Marine
Kool-aid beat me to it. But what does that have to do with. If Mills would’ve handle his business, we wouldn’t have drafted a quarterback with the number 2 pick. Draft board could’ve went totally different. We could’ve drafted Will Anderson at 2 and kept our pick at 11 and got us a stud WR. Dude just didn’t show enough potential. He regressed versus progressing like some us thought he would have.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Your comment is off topic. But that's all right.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Again, off topic. Why does any mention of Mills set you off? Everyone recognizes Stroud is our qb. The why doesn't really matter, just go with the flow. It's just a game and there's more important things going on which matters to life.
So no receiver (TE included) make your list?
Has nothing to do with Mills. Many here were adamant against drafting a QB.
We see what we want to see. I thought Pep & Lovie were our biggest problem. I also believe Cooks drama was a huge reason our young QB struggled.
Why did he go from fairly accurate to abysmal in one offseason? The only real change was coaching
Texansballer74
The Marine
No sir, you’re wrong in that sense. I did not see what I wanted to see. What I wanted to see was improvement from the season before. I wanted to not see a player getting benched again . Dude wasn’t making the proper reads, he wasn’t going through his progressions and he just didn’t do what he did in those last five games of the previous season. And that was improve, even though the team was not good at all. He still improved.
But oh you only wants to blame Lovie and Pep. I’m pretty darn sure they pounded in his head to do this and that. They went over the film and Mr. Mills just wasn’t getting it. Because on game day he was still making the same freaking mistakes. He so much said himself.
But hey we only see and hear what we want to see and hear right.
Cooks quit because of Mills not delivering and the offense as a whole wasn’t getting better. Plus they fired his chapel/ crooked friend.
As far as receivers/ TE’s not making the list. Well bro if your quarterback isn’t getting you the ball, well of course you’re not making any positive list.
I'm using the same logic. Just starting further back.
I don't know what Davis is or isn't. Usually we say we don't know for three years. Changing HCs & OCs affect that timing for a QB. I'm just being consistent.
Trevor Lawrence after one year guy looks like a bust. Next year he looks like the 2nd coming. Daniel Jones after two years, Josh Allen after two years, bust... third year they look like Franchise QBs.
I never expected Davis Mills to be a Franchise QB, somewhere between Case Keenum & Kirk Cousins. After two years I still think that's where he could be.
SnakeEyes
Under NRG
Just found this article. It projects each game of the season with a small summary and score. No question, a talking point type read.
torotimes.com
Game-by-game predictions for the 2023 Houston Texans after preseason
Can the Houston Texans exceed last season's win total? With only three wins a year ago, I believe they can more than double that number in 2023.
torotimes.com
Number19
Hall of Fame
With the exception of the win at Carolina, this is how I see the cards falling for the Texans this season, with seven wins. Good post.Just found this article. It projects each game of the season with a small summary and score. No question, a talking point type read.
Game-by-game predictions for the 2023 Houston Texans after preseason
Can the Houston Texans exceed last season's win total? With only three wins a year ago, I believe they can more than double that number in 2023.
KoolAid Sipper
AFCEVET
For me it was a pretty close toss up between Pitre and Cooks. I chose Pitre because I felt he was more impactful. The lack of a passing game is why I didn't choose Cooks.
The passing game was struggling regardless of the intended receiver. Mills was missing on the throws more times than he should have. I agree Pep and Lovie didn't do the offense any favors but Mills didn't help either. Nothing against Mills, he has physical tools but it hasn't translated consistently in anything that the current regime saw a future in. The team chose a more talented player in Stroud and he's next up to see what he can do.
KoolAid Sipper
AFCEVET
To the OP, I feel this is still a lower tier team, but I'm excited to see their development over the course of the season...and with some luck hopefully the win total is at least 2x more than 2022.
Roster - is a mixed bag of opportunity. I have the most concern related to the OL (even before the injuries) and the secondary. IMO, the players within those 2 groups have to get used to playing together cohesively more than other groups to be effective. I expect improved play from DL and LBs. With the QB/WRs/TEs, there is an infusion of some talent and youth here but I expect them to be behind the other groups as they develop with the play calls, timing, etc.
Coaching - more of an unknown than the players. A 1st time HC who only recently spent 2 years as a DC where he inherited very good players. A 1st time OC who was a defensive coach until 2019. Lastly a DC with plenty of coaching experience but I don't know if those units he's been associated with were any good. Their management of the team in utilizing players to their strengths and putting them in positions to be successful will be interesting to observe. Game management is typically where younger or 1st time coaches struggle out the gate and we armchair coaches are the most critical.
Roster - is a mixed bag of opportunity. I have the most concern related to the OL (even before the injuries) and the secondary. IMO, the players within those 2 groups have to get used to playing together cohesively more than other groups to be effective. I expect improved play from DL and LBs. With the QB/WRs/TEs, there is an infusion of some talent and youth here but I expect them to be behind the other groups as they develop with the play calls, timing, etc.
Coaching - more of an unknown than the players. A 1st time HC who only recently spent 2 years as a DC where he inherited very good players. A 1st time OC who was a defensive coach until 2019. Lastly a DC with plenty of coaching experience but I don't know if those units he's been associated with were any good. Their management of the team in utilizing players to their strengths and putting them in positions to be successful will be interesting to observe. Game management is typically where younger or 1st time coaches struggle out the gate and we armchair coaches are the most critical.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Davis showed progression the last 5 games of 21. Then the following year he regressed. That’s the difference right there.
Those two you mentioned showed progression and continued to improve.
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Texansballer74
The Marine
The Jaguars are not beating the Texans twice. Maybe split but we’re go back to dominating them.
KoolAid Sipper
AFCEVET
2023 AFC win-total projections: Chiefs, Bengals, Bills reign; Dolphins, Steelers miss playoffs
Who will make the playoffs from the highly competitive AFC North? Will Aaron Rodgers lead the Jets to the postseason? Analytics guru Cynthia Frelund reveals her projected win total for each AFC team.
www.nfl.com
Very much agree with the ceiling and floor projections. Saw that one article on CBS had us with a ceiling of 5 wins though lolView attachment 125752023 AFC win-total projections: Chiefs, Bengals, Bills reign; Dolphins, Steelers miss playoffs
Who will make the playoffs from the highly competitive AFC North? Will Aaron Rodgers lead the Jets to the postseason? Analytics guru Cynthia Frelund reveals her projected win total for each AFC team.
Thorn
Dirty Old Man
Unless things go completely to hell (injuries and stupid coaching) the Texans really should win at least 5 games with their schedule, more than likely 6 or 7. There's enough talent on this team right now to improve from worst to slightly under mediocre this year.
And with their spiffy new uniforms we can expect playoffs next year.
And with their spiffy new uniforms we can expect playoffs next year.
Are you surprised he regressed with a Lovie coached team When Moore's your WR1 for part of the yr?
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HC does not throw the ball for the QB.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
…..and the QB doesn’t block for himself. Now before you type, but PFF grades, the OL was like Lovie’s defensive scheme of “bend but don’t break”. I saw the OL pushed around like rag dolls last season in pass pro with the biggest culprit being the Center who could be shoved into Mills lap as quick as the ball was getting there. Mills brain was going off like a GPS parking sensor…..how was he going to be sure the suddenly small pocket was going to remain clean or collapse? This situation led to some bad habits being developed….the biggest one in my book, throwing off the back foot.
With the current injuries to the OL and now putting Stroud behind a makeshift OL for his first start against the Ravens on the road…..nothing could possibly go wrong, right?
In this thread here, I and DocBar had brought up the eval of a few different outlets and the Texans Offensive Line was rated somewhere in the middle.
Texans Offensive Line
They were ranked as high as 13th by this website after the second win (over the Titans) https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-offensive-lines-week17 Howard was injured early and played only 10% of the snaps. SQ, Cann, Tunsil, and Heck (RT) all play 100% of the snaps. Morrissey 69% and...
www.texanstalk.com
Now even if we go with another Website here, the Texans line was still ranked 23rd
NFL Offensive Line Rankings 2023
FTN's Dan Fornek ranks all 32 NFL offensive lines heading into the 2023 NFL season.
www.ftnfantasy.com
On the other hand, Mills was consistently ranked near the bottom of the QB list by pretty much all the major sport website.
By mid-season, SI already called for the Texans to move on from Davis Mills.
At this point in time, Pierce was still playing and Cooks hadn't quit.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Why would you want any quarterback to play behind that? Mills is slower than CJ . Lol
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
In this thread here, I and DocBar had brought up the eval of a few different outlets and the Texans Offensive Line was rated somewhere in the middle.
Texans Offensive Line
They were ranked as high as 13th by this website after the second win (over the Titans) https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-offensive-lines-week17 Howard was injured early and played only 10% of the snaps. SQ, Cann, Tunsil, and Heck (RT) all play 100% of the snaps. Morrissey 69% and...www.texanstalk.com
Now even if we go with another Website here, the Texans line was still ranked 23rd
NFL Offensive Line Rankings 2023
FTN's Dan Fornek ranks all 32 NFL offensive lines heading into the 2023 NFL season.
On the other hand, Mills was consistently ranked near the bottom of the QB list by pretty much all the major sport website.
……are you a stat line reader or a game watcher? Watching the games sure opened anyone’s eyes to how easily and deep the OL was pushed backwards. That’s going to be pretty unsettling for most QB’s, especially when the push is coming up the middle.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
The WR’s were not getting open as I mentioned on many of the game day threads. I mentioned that Cooks wasn’t getting open like the previous season…..and then there no WR’s breaking free most of the time.
I saw Mills miss enough open guys, especially early in the season, to call at least some BS on this. We didn’t have Tyreek Hill out there or anything but there were a good amount of plays available that were missed
Number19
Hall of Fame
Now this I find interesting. "Early in the season"? How early? It's interesting because Mills had an injured thumb, on his throwing hand, early in the season. Now, to be clear, I have no idea, there's nothing I can find, to give any indication on how this may have impacted his game. But no one is discussing this. But we know he regressed last season. Why?
I mean first lets be clear he didn't become great suddenly in the second half of the season but I didn't notice him being god awful like the first portion of the year.
I kinda mentally split Mills last year up into a few parts
Part 1 was games 1-5. I thought Mills was awful games 1-5 outside of a couple solid quarters he put together. Then the Raiders game (game 6) came and the offense looked solid but the defense fell apart. Part 1 was incredibly frustrating because looking back with some slightly better QB play (especially late in the game) we could have gone into the bye week 4-1 and who knows where that momentum takes us, probably not playoffs or anything but could have at least put up a watchable season.
Part 2 was the oline struggles . The oline was never great but I thought there were parts of the year where they held up reasonably well. But for games 7-10 we went up against some monster dlines (Titans, Commanders, Eagles, Giants) and the oline just fell apart. Don't really put this on Mills
Part 3 was the last 5 games after he got benched for the Miami and Cleveland games. The season was well and truly over here so to be honest I wasn't watching as closely. Seems like Mills kinda straightened up here and was more serviceable although there were still a couple games we lost in the final stretch that we win with some slightly better QB play.
Sorry I got too into that exercise and kinda got off the point. I don't know what was going on with Mills or why he regressed I just know he was a third round pick who started 20+ games and there were maybe 2-3 games I came out of thinking "Hey Mills could be the guy".
Blocking is overrated. If Stroud needs offensive linemen then it was a mistake to pick him.
Receivers were open plenty in the first game; Mills had several chance to win the game, he just missed them.
Davis Mills folds again in week 2.
Texans vs Broncos NFL Week 2 Recap. Davis MIlls proves once again why he's not a starting NFL QB!!!
#HoustonTexans #DenverBroncos #DavisMills▼ Read Full Description ▼The BEST SPORTS TALK SHOW IN HOUSTON!★ SAUCE NATION IS THE VOICE OF HOUSTON! ★————————————W...
www.youtube.com
Game 3, score tied at 20.
Mills threw a costly INT that gave the ball to the Bears at the Texans 12.
It was on third and short.
Mills gave this game away.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
292 completions (61%) and 17 TD tosses offer some other side of the coin views. His 2022 development was stunted with Lovie and Pep…..and yes, he had plenty of bad throws and misses, pretty much expected for a second year NFL QB playing for a pitiful organization.
Evidently, other teams did inquire regarding Mills availability in a trade…..I’m sure the offer was lowball, but the team knows Mills offers more value to them as a QB2 this season versus taking a lowball offer to get him out of Houston.
A full season on the sideline with Keenum could do more for his development than being QB1 this season.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
This was why some of us were against picking him.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Some of the same people were very critical with their assessment towards D4. Even after he his injury to his ribs. But now they’re playing the injured excuse card for Mills.
The thing with Mills is once the lights were going to be turned off and the defense stopped the pressure, he turned into Brady for the last 10 minutes of the 4th quarter. I sure wish we had a Kubiak who could trade to OB this year.
The problem is there were no highs. Every QB misses throws I think everyone gets that but you need to see the flashes of where the player is going to have that hope.
I don’t think there’s a single game we can point two last year where we say look there that’s the guy who can lead this team for the next 10 years. Closest would probably be the Raiders game or first Colts game but even in those he had a pick six in the Raiders game and a crucial fumble in the Colts game. There’s just no beacon of hope in the distance there for anything beyond a good backup
I agree, for the most part. Not a lot of "good" tape on Davis in 2022. I never thought he was going to be a franchise QB, but I think he could be a solid starter. Hopefully we don't ever find out. We got Cj.
& I'm not mad the Texans drafted Cj. I wouldn't have. Nothing against Cj. But we've been doing things backaswards for a while now & it needs to stop.
jradMIT
Veteran
I like to look at the schedule in term if what road games can the win what home games can they lose, so @CAR @ATL, @IND,@TEN, @JAX, then JAX, PIT, NO, DEN, CLE,
So lock in 4 wins 3 losses, so remaining 10 games above will be the space of possibility. If this team didn’t have so many new pieces, systems and coaches, you’d feel pretty confident that 4-5 wins in those games barring major injuries. But will it take time for Stroud and the offense and the new scheme to gel? The first part of the schedule seems tougher, so maybe that’s a good thing because later in the schedule if they are healthy they should be near competitive. All in all time will tell.
I’d say 7 is a fair number bad breaks and good breaks being equal.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So lock in 4 wins 3 losses, so remaining 10 games above will be the space of possibility. If this team didn’t have so many new pieces, systems and coaches, you’d feel pretty confident that 4-5 wins in those games barring major injuries. But will it take time for Stroud and the offense and the new scheme to gel? The first part of the schedule seems tougher, so maybe that’s a good thing because later in the schedule if they are healthy they should be near competitive. All in all time will tell.
I’d say 7 is a fair number bad breaks and good breaks being equal.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Texansballer74
The Marine
They didn’t do it backwards this time. They did something similar to what the Bengals did when they drafted Burrow. The Colts did with Manning. Then those two started building .
All because we don’t like or wouldn’t have done it that way, doesn’t mean they’re wrong.
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Number19
Hall of Fame
Exactly who are you referring to? I believe I'm the only one who has pointed out Mills' injury to his thumb. And I didn't use this injury as an excuse; I simply pointed out the fact. In a previous post I mentioned I didn't know what impact the injury had on his game. But you and several other posters totally ignore the fact he had this injury. On multiple occasions I asked for comment on whether a thumb injury was impactful on a qb's play which you and others chose to ignore. My posts are simply offered to counterbalance your shortsightedness.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Then I won't go to you for talent evaluation. Mills wasn't good in college, the few games he did play there. Not sure he even would have been the starter there if Costello hadn't transfered.
I don't know why some try so hard to defend mediocre players. You can do it Tom Savage. Let's go, baby!! TJ Yates won a playoff game. Doesn't make him any good either. Mills has won nothing, not even in college. Dude is not good and it sucks that he's first off the bench here instead of Case. Not that the Texans are going places if Stroud is out and Case takes over, but they're for sure going nowhere if Mills has to take over.