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2023 Texans NFL Projection/Ranking

Corrosion said:
You know, I've been here since the beginning .... 2002 before the franchise even had a name, been here for all the ups and downs in between .... and despite the fact that I think Demeco was the right hire, I just can't find it in me to get excited about this franchise .... It is Afterall the Texans, they could jump in a rose bush and come out smelling like
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I have been rooting for this team since the same time. I am excited.

Maybe you just need a Zoloft or Paxil.

Or maybe Thorn can hook you up with something.
 
TexansBull said:
I have been rooting for this team since the same time. I am excited.

Maybe you just need a Zoloft or Paxil.

Or maybe Thorn can hook you up with something.
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The weirdest thing about this forum is how many people spend a lot of time talking about and posting about the Texans but claim to have given up hope lol. Sports is just entertainment, if you have no hope where's the entertainment and if you're not entertained why are you still following
 
Khelar said:
The weirdest thing about this forum is how many people spend a lot of time talking about and posting about the Texans but claim to have given up hope lol. Sports is just entertainment, if you have no hope where's the entertainment and if you're not entertained why are you still following
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Lol exactly. It’s hilarious to me.
 
Khelar said:
The weirdest thing about this forum is how many people spend a lot of time talking about and posting about the Texans but claim to have given up hope lol. Sports is just entertainment, if you have no hope where's the entertainment and if you're not entertained why are you still following
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Friendship that's been developed over the last 2 decades. Also, I like the draft stuff a lot. It's a hobby of mine.
 
Khelar said:
The weirdest thing about this forum is how many people spend a lot of time talking about and posting about the Texans but claim to have given up hope lol. Sports is just entertainment, if you have no hope where's the entertainment and if you're not entertained why are you still following
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PTSD from the Oilers. They are like kids who saw their parents divorce because dad/mom ran off with some other person to start a new family.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
3. Stat to know: The Texans' trade from No. 12 up to No. 3 for edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. was the second-largest first-round overpay in the past 20 drafts,
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I disagree. I don't believe that there is a DE in the 24' draft that is on the same level as WA. If Houston waited until next year to take a DE they likely would have been disappointed. Truly elite defensive ends don't come along in every draft.
 
Khelar said:
The weirdest thing about this forum is how many people spend a lot of time talking about and posting about the Texans but claim to have given up hope lol. Sports is just entertainment, if you have no hope where's the entertainment and if you're not entertained why are you still following
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I've had bad habits my entire life

I quit smoking.
I got married so I quit picking the wrong woman
I quit drinking, cause... without a cigarette its not the same.
IF I quit rooting for the Texans.... its like I became an old man and grew.

Im sorry, you may not have taken your Toys R Us oath seriously.... but I sir and/or madam will NOT grow up.... :bubbles:
 
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You guys are cracking me up. Well done! Laughter is the best medicine.

I’m going with 6 or 7 wins. If you have to pin me down today, I’ll roll with 6…wanna see the PS before locking that in. I think there are competing things pulling in different directions…some real positives, but counterpoints abound that will serve as a weight to hold this team down. We are a year away guys. Patience grasshoppers!

Some folks wear the steel blue glasses…John Harris step right up. The eggs are always sunny side up for the Harris crew.

Some of you are like the Grinch that stole football. You’ve slipped down the chimney and stole all the Texans gear from little Jenny.

As for me, I’m like Goldilocks. I found a pot of porridge that was just right. Six…maybe seven this year. Next year Texans become contenders.

Enjoy the ride ladies and germs and keep your arms inside the football season at all times. Expect this roller coaster to scare as well as thrill you.
 
Lucky said:
How can the Texans get close to .500? That seems to be the goal to reach for this season. Well, score as many points as you give up seems to be the obvious answer.

The Texans scored 17 ppg in 2022. And gave up 24.7 ppg. Which side of the ball can improve the most, and by how much? A case can be made that the Texans have improved at every level on defense. And one can expect the young players that were already on the roster (Stingley, Pitre, and Harris) will make a big step up in their 2nd year. Also, the Texans strength of schedule should be improved. I look at that via the QBs they play. Using The Athletic QB Tiers, the Texans play 2 games vs Tier 1 QBs, 4 games against Tier 2 QBs, 5 games vs Tier 3 QBs, 5 games vs Tier 4 QBs and one vs a rookie QB. And the games against rookie QBs could rise depending on if/when the Colts and Titans pivot towards a rookie. That averages out to the Texans playing against a Tier 3 QB for every game. It's not a reach that this defense could become average in 2023. In 2022, the 16th rated defense allowed 21.7 ppg. Becoming an average NFL defense should reduce the points allowed by 3 ppg.

Trying to reach breakeven in points scored/allowed would be difficult in this scenario. But what can be expected of the Texans offense in 2023? First, the Texans have made a point of emphasis on improving the rushing attack. The Texans finished 31st in rushing offense in 2022. So there's lots of room for improvement. The Texans have made attempts to solidify the offensive line and add depth to the RB position. Add to that a scheme that has produced an average of a top 10 rushing attack in SF over the past 5 seasons. While it may not be realistic for the Texans to attain a top 10 rushing attack in year 1 of the Ryans era, an average run game seems doable. The average run game produced around 122 yards/game in 2022. That would be an improvement of 35 rushing yards/game. That would make a difference.

What about improvement in the passing game? It would seem difficult to make huge strides in passing yards, when the focus in 2023 is to be on the run game. The Texans will have a rookie QB, and several new receivers to mesh into the passing offense. It would appear to be unrealistic to become an average passing offense out of the gate. But improving the passing efficiency from somewhere between next to last (76.8 QB rating) and average (87.9) seems obtainable. Let's split the difference and say the Texans can get to a passing rating of 82.3 in 2023.

Now, were looking at offenses that had average run games with below average (but not horrible) passing efficiency and the points they created. The closest comparison I found was the 2022 Washington Commander offense with a run game that average 126 yds/game and had a passing rating of 84.7. That Commander average 18.9 ppg.

What kind of record can you expect from a team that averages 18.9 ppg and allows 21.7 ppg? Pythagorean expectation is a formula that sabermetric statisticians in baseball use to calculate a team's expected record. And while there are much fewer games in a football season, there shouldn't be too much variance in taking a guess at an NFL teams expected record. The formula is:

1/(1+(points allowed/points scored)² x 17 = 7.33 wins. Which is the number of wins I came up with looking at the schedule. I would put the variance as one game in either direction. The win total is currently sitting at 5.5, so I see the over as a very positive play.
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With an improved running game and close to average passing game, I can see 7-10 wins this season. Most of the reason the run defense was poor last year was due to the offense having so many 3 & outs. The defense was gassed in the 2nd & 4th quarters of just about every game last season.
The Texans lost 6 games by one score last season. That usually goes the other way the following season.
I also think the offense will improve just by having a competent, proven offensive scheme in place. A rookie OC does give me some concern.
 
Robert Mays is excellent. Have enjoyed reading & listening to his work for years via the Athletic subscription. Great passion and intelligence with best football minds inside football. His work with Buglar & Lance are must listen for draft addicts. Texans are in fact, with Hiring of DeMeco, headed in direction we can all get behind, finally!
 
Thorn said:
He could have gotten 100 Spicy chicken sandwiches with onion rings from Jack in the Box instead. At least he would have had some diarrhea to show for his money.
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Well, aren't you the optimistic one

So you think he won't receive diarrhea either way?

I mean Im hopeful we aren't fielding liquid feces for the next 17 games but.....history being an indicator..... Im not holding my breath..... or.... I am... a field of fecal matter does make a horrible poopourri.
 
KA4Texan said:
Well, aren't you the optimistic one

So you think he won't receive diarrhea either way?

I mean Im hopeful we aren't fielding liquid feces for the next 17 games but.....history being an indicator..... Im not holding my breath..... or.... I am... a field of fecal matter does make a horrible poopourri.
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I’ve actually got the Texans finishing with 6-9 wins, but unfortunately…..no Super Bowl run this season.
 
Cerberus said:
Best of luck to your Texans this year guys! I'm sure I won't be much better off with my Raiders, but at least football is back!

Just noticed that I joined almost 13 years and 23,000 messages ago. Of course, most of my messaging was in the now defunct No-Spin Zone.
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Dude! Where have you been? Don't abandon us like that!
 
Cerberus said:
Best of luck to your Texans this year guys! I'm sure I won't be much better off with my Raiders, but at least football is back!

Just noticed that I joined almost 13 years and 23,000 messages ago. Of course, most of my messaging was in the now defunct No-Spin Zone.
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Well, whadda ya know, a blast from the past. :)
 
Cerberus said:
Best of luck to your Texans this year guys! I'm sure I won't be much better off with my Raiders, but at least football is back!

Just noticed that I joined almost 13 years and 23,000 messages ago. Of course, most of my messaging was in the now defunct No-Spin Zone.
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Good to see you back.

Stop by more often and lets talk some football.
 
steelbtexan said:
Which is another reason they should've waited on a QB.
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I definitely wasn’t mocking a QB to the Texans in any of my drafts, but when they made the move to get Stroud I had to reevaluate my position. First, I didn’t think the Texans had a chance to get Stroud, who I liked much more than Young, and two….I thought Mills deserved another chance with better talent and coaching staff. Stroud has a better team than any first time Texans QB has had, but it still has holes to fill which will make this a growing season for him…..not the end of the world if the next draft hits and the team finds answers from this years team.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I definitely wasn’t mocking a QB to the Texans in any of my drafts, but when they made the move to get Stroud I had to reevaluate my position. First, I didn’t think the Texans had a chance to get Stroud, who I liked much more than Young, and two….I thought Mills deserved another chance with better talent and coaching staff. Stroud has a better team than any first time Texans QB has had, but it still has holes to fill which will make this a growing season for him…..not the end of the world if the next draft hits and the team finds answers from this years team.
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Why did you have to reevaluate your position?

You either like that QB class or you don't.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I definitely wasn’t mocking a QB to the Texans in any of my drafts, but when they made the move to get Stroud I had to reevaluate my position. First, I didn’t think the Texans had a chance to get Stroud, who I liked much more than Young, and two….I thought Mills deserved another chance with better talent and coaching staff. Stroud has a better team than any first time Texans QB has had, but it still has holes to fill which will make this a growing season for him…..not the end of the world if the next draft hits and the team finds answers from this years team.
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I tried to tell you then the Texans and these organizations doesn’t think like us. But we know history and the trend that’s going on now. The Texans needed a franchise quarterback and we all knew, maybe not you, Mills wasn’t the guy. Dude actually regressed from when we were optimistic about the last 5 games of 2021.
 
Texansballer74 said:
I tried to tell you then the Texans and these organizations doesn’t think like us. But we know history and the trend that’s going on now. The Texans needed a franchise quarterback and we all knew, maybe not you, Mills wasn’t the guy. Dude actually regressed from when we were optimistic about the last 5 games of 2021.
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Yes the McNair's don't care or think like fans. They do what it takes to refill the stadium. I wasn't against getting a franchise QB, just not in the 2023 draft and frankly seeing Williams,Maye and Sanders play well yesterday is sicking. Continued bad ownership down on Kirby.
 
Texansballer74 said:
I tried to tell you then the Texans and these organizations doesn’t think like us. But we know history and the trend that’s going on now. The Texans needed a franchise quarterback and we all knew, maybe not you, Mills wasn’t the guy. Dude actually regressed from when we were optimistic about the last 5 games of 2021.
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Agreed, but at the same time Mills didn't have much talent around him and the coaching very suspect. I still think Mills will be in the NFL for a long time, maybe as a backup, but he'll be around.
 
Thorn said:
Agreed, but at the same time Mills didn't have much talent around him and the coaching very suspect. I still think Mills will be in the NFL for a long time, maybe as a backup, but he'll be around.
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I understand that but over throwing his receivers on a consistent basis and throwing at their feet is on him. He wasn’t giving them a chance to make any plays for him. That’s why he was benched remember. Another thing Mills said it himself, I should’ve ran more.

I can see him being in the league for a while too. He’s a smart young man.
 
Thorn said:
Agreed, but at the same time Mills didn't have much talent around him and the coaching very suspect. I still think Mills will be in the NFL for a long time, maybe as a backup, but he'll be around.
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But Mills isn't much talent either, so there's that.
 
Texansballer74 said:
I understand that but over throwing his receivers on a consistent basis and throwing at their feet is on him. He wasn’t giving them a chance to make any plays for him. That’s why he was benched remember. Another thing Mills said it himself, I should’ve ran more.

I can see him being in the league for a while too. He’s a smart young man.
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I think he can be every bit as good as Daniel Jones. Good enough to develop a team until you find “your guy.”

I hope CJ Stroud is their guy. He looks the part.
 
Texansballer74 said:
I hear you but I have to disagree. Mills looks like a backup to me. He’s wildly inconsistent
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So Mills was the only player on the field wildly inconsistent? The coaching staff, offensive systems, and 52 other players were wildly consistent over the past two seasons, to the point that Mills was the one holding them back from success?

Mills has the goods, he just wasn’t in a good position to be properly developed…..especially coming out of CFB with 11 starts under his belt and to a team like the Texans who were in complete flux and a complete rebuild.

I’m on board with Stroud and hope the Texans don’t make the same mistake by having him under center before the overall team is prepared to help him. I simply make this statement b/c the Texans have “never” successfully developed a QB for long-term success.
 
Either you can hit a guy in the numbers or you can’t. That’s in a vacuum. Mills is wildly inconsistent and inaccurate, particularly outside the numbers. He does make some damn fine throws too but not often enough.
 
Porky said:
Either you can hit a guy in the numbers or you can’t.
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I’m not making excuses for Davis, but none of us really know what happened last season. We know what we saw & what we saw doesn’t make sense.

his play in college says one thing. His rookie season confirms what we thought coming out of college. His sophomore season is the outlier.

Why?
 
thunderkyss said:
I’m not making excuses for Davis, but none of us really know what happened last season. We know what we saw & what we saw doesn’t make sense.

his play in college says one thing. His rookie season confirms what we thought coming out of college. His sophomore season is the outlier.

Why?
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Just to remind everyone, and something which is ignored or goes unmentioned, Mills injured the thumb on his throwing hand in the second game against Denver.

Now, Mills played through this injury and after the Chicago game it was never mentioned again and no longer appeared on the injury report. But for the Chicago game, the thumb was reported as being stiff and swollen.

So, what effect does a thumb injury have on a qb? And for how long?
 
OptimisticTexan said:
So Mills was the only player on the field wildly inconsistent? The coaching staff, offensive systems, and 52 other players were wildly consistent over the past two seasons, to the point that Mills was the one holding them back from success?

Mills has the goods, he just wasn’t in a good position to be properly developed…..especially coming out of CFB with 11 starts under his belt and to a team like the Texans who were in complete flux and a complete rebuild.

I’m on board with Stroud and hope the Texans don’t make the same mistake by having him under center before the overall team is prepared to help him. I simply make this statement b/c the Texans have “never” successfully developed a QB for long-term success.
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That is not what I said at all. We’re talking about Mills anyways. Brother I was all for Mills and like I said he regressed. It was so bad to point of jokers quitting on him. Like I asked earlier, why was he benched?
 
Texansballer74 said:
That is not what I said at all. We’re talking about Mills anyways. Brother I was all for Mills and like I said he regressed. It was so bad to point of jokers quitting on him. Like I asked earlier, why was he benched?
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Who were the best three players on the team last year?
 
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