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Nick Caserio - New GM

Dejaview

All Pro
I forgot about McKinney's $1.5 million in dead money. That's $8.5 million Caserio spent for McKinney to play in Miami, Lawson to play in New York, + (2) 6th round picks - (1) 7th rounder.

The Texans would have saved $6.5 million had they just cut McKinney.

What a genius.
A real genius wouldn’t have to second guess. What if Lawson performed at a higher level. Has NC hit on other DL players?
 

maverick512000

Hall of Fame
To me the real test of him as a GM will be what, if anything, he gets for Watson. If he gets a kings ransom then I’m satisfied, if he sticks to his guns and makes Watson play out his contract if no team meets his price or Watson doesn’t wave the NTC, then I’m satisfied. However, if he gets fleeced on what should be the biggest trade in modern NFL history then nothing sort of a SB ring would redeem him in my eyes.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Nick Caserio is building a culture to win 4 games this season? Lol

By the time he builds a culture we roll over 50% of roster.

How does that carry over?
It's going to take atleast 3 yrs to rebuild and the cap really doesn't matter at this point of the rebuild. Some of these guys will still be here in 3 yrs and they will set the bar for the new guys.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Should we have kept last years roster? Why?
Some said the players (a number of them) dídn't play hard enough.

Some said changing the Oline coach would do wonder.

Some think that Lovie can make a difference.

Some think that just getting rid of OB is a good step forward.

A good GM can always get an overpaid player to take a paycut.

A case can be made for not having to turn over the roster completely.

It might be better to look for a few diamonds in the rough or close to it (the AJ Bouye, Arian Fosters of the world).
 

Dejaview

All Pro
Hopefully our healthy OL is better than the Titans. But so far, they have not been.

& whether Kendall Lamm is a difference maker or not is not the point. We have not replaced him with a difference maker yet. Howard looked pretty good, up until he got hurt, so we don't know yet if he's an upgrade or not.

We're spending more money & draft picks & are barely getting replacement level.
we did rush for 157 more yards than the Bucs Saturday. Are you saying we have to replace Lamm with difference maker? You always want to replace anybody with a difference maker but this board killed that guy. Why does he matter now? I’ve never heard that take. Camp is making a difference with this line. Much more discipline wouldnt you say? TB returned all 22 starters from a SB team. Who are our starters three games in? How can we possibly be held to the same standards three games in? Personally I’m thrilled to just see a team playing at a higher professional level after just three games with a revamped roster.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Some said the players (a number of them) dídn't play hard enough.

Some said changing the Oline coach would do wonder.

Some think that Lovie can make a difference.

Some think that just getting rid of OB is a good step forward.

A good GM can always get an overpaid player to take a paycut.

A case can be made for not having to turn over the roster completely.

It might be better to look for a few diamonds in the rough or close to it (the AJ Bouye, Arian Fosters of the world).
I am among the some of each one of those declarations.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
You got a new job? Nobody here doesn’t constantly take down every member of this organization? this board drips with hate.
Why you're hating on them?
Can't you just let them be?

Questioning each of the GM's move is fair game to fans.

When the moves he makes starts to pay off, the criticism ought to slow down.

Even an average-thereabout GM like Rick Smith got crucified constantly.
It's nothing new.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
So
Some said the players (a number of them) dídn't play hard enough.

Some said changing the Oline coach would do wonder.

Some think that Lovie can make a difference.

Some think that just getting rid of OB is a good step forward.

A good GM can always get an overpaid player to take a paycut.

A case can be made for not having to turn over the roster completely.

It might be better to look for a few diamonds in the rough or close to it (the AJ Bouye, Arian Fosters of the world).
what is your point? Are you saying keep last years roster and add a few diamonds in the rough? You usually have to go through a number of players to find those. Seems we are finding a few. if you listen to NC and Lovie for example, this team has a profile for every position, height, weight, length, speed, etc. that’s the biggest reason for the roster revamp. They want the player profiles to fit their new systems. No square pegs in round holes. I NEVER heard this type of talk before from this team. This is what is so interesting to me but to expect instant change with concomitant communication and cohesion is ludicrous. All I hope to see this year is seeing the plan implemented with progress game to game. I liked what I saw against TB and expected the outcome. But when TB seemed in control this team hit back and frankly I think it took TB by surprise. We kept penalties almost eliminated until the backups predominated and even then we excelled from prior years. Really nobody has run on us yet. Didn’t we have 157 more yards rushing than TB?…over 200 yards? Can’t remember but I think so. I think our system implementation is benefiting from the roster competition. Without it where would we be now?
 

Dejaview

All Pro
Why you're hating on them?
Can't you just let them be?

Questioning each of the GM's move is fair game to fans.

When the moves he makes starts to pay off, the criticism ought to slow down.

Even an average-thereabout GM like Rick Smith got crucified constantly.
It's nothing new.
Dude, everything I post just about gets hate mail. Cant they just let me be? Get over it. I got destroyed for saying I like Spencer Tillman. Why the hate? Edit, I got called a ******* moron, etc. Hate, no?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
we did rush for 157 more yards than the Bucs Saturday. Are you saying we have to replace Lamm with difference maker? You always want to replace anybody with a difference maker but this board killed that guy. Why does he matter now? I’ve never heard that take. Camp is making a difference with this line. Much more discipline wouldnt you say? TB returned all 22 starters from a SB team. Who are our starters three games in? How can we possibly be held to the same standards three games in? Personally I’m thrilled to just see a team playing at a higher professional level after just three games with a revamped roster.
You're missing the point.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
To me the real test of him as a GM will be what, if anything, he gets for Watson. If he gets a kings ransom then I’m satisfied, if he sticks to his guns and makes Watson play out his contract if no team meets his price or Watson doesn’t wave the NTC, then I’m satisfied. However, if he gets fleeced on what should be the biggest trade in modern NFL history then nothing sort of a SB ring would redeem him in my eyes.
Kinda hard to get value for a guy that is soon going to have a grand jury indictment hanging of his head. I think expectations need to be lowered around these parts. What would you consider fair value for a guy that there's a 50/50 chance his next team is the mean machine?
 

Dejaview

All Pro
Kinda hard to get value for a guy that is soon going to have a grand jury indictment hanging of his head. I think expectations need to be lowered around these parts. What would you consider fair value for a guy that there's a 50/50 chance his next team is the mean machine?
And what is the standard for measuring his success in this situation. Oh, there isn’t one. Who the hell will ever know what kind of restrictions he faces with any decision He has to make? Everybody, everybody from the NFL down will be pointing fingers and covering ass at the fallout from this situation created by one incredibly selfish and ignorant person.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
So

what is your point? Are you saying keep last years roster and add a few diamonds in the rough? You usually have to go through a number of players to find those. Seems we are finding a few. if you listen to NC and Lovie for example, this team has a profile for every position, height, weight, length, speed, etc. that’s the biggest reason for the roster revamp. They want the player profiles to fit their new systems. No square pegs in round holes. I NEVER heard this type of talk before from this team. This is what is so interesting to me but to expect instant change with concomitant communication and cohesion is ludicrous. All I hope to see this year is seeing the plan implemented with progress game to game. I liked what I saw against TB and expected the outcome. But when TB seemed in control this team hit back and frankly I think it took TB by surprise. We kept penalties almost eliminated until the backups predominated and even then we excelled from prior years. Really nobody has run on us yet. Didn’t we have 157 more yards rushing than TB?…over 200 yards? Can’t remember but I think so. I think our system implementation is benefiting from the roster competition. Without it where would we be now?
Of course, there were players to fit a system before.
Didn't Kubiak find linemen that are efficient in space?
Productive TEs that can also block?
RBs that can make one cut and go?

Wade Phillips wants his players to play naturally, thus the match-man coverage.
D-lineman that play one gap.

As for the roster, do whatever, but don't treat money like it's there's an endless pit.

If a GM has to go through ten guys to find a good player then he's simply not good.
Any run-of-the-mill GM can do that.

For the game, any game, points are always the most important thing.
The Buccs can throw the ball at will, why do they need to bother with the running game?

They had 10 more first downs passing the ball.
One third of their carries were in the fourth quarter when they just want to take some time off the clock and go home.

They are returning all 22 starters; they had no need to do anything in the fourth quarter , or even the whole second half.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
You are both correct in a way. But to steelb’s credit Brisiel and Foster both started on the practice squad. Meaning they were cut in camp in favor to players we would learn after they were elevated that they were clearly superior to… The Texans had Chris Brown at RB throwing halfback pass ints while Foster was on the bench that season.

I think Steel is saying “hopefully” it doesn’t take nearly an entire season (or two) to figure out who the best players are at each position.
I don't see why steel get the credit for Brisiel and Foster being on the PS? :ahhaha:

But seriously, they were because they weren't quite ready.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Dude, everything I post just about gets hate mail. Cant they just let me be? Get over it. I got destroyed for saying I like Spencer Tillman. Why the hate? Edit, I got called a ******* moron, etc. Hate, no?
Didn't you tell somebody to go back to his bottle? :ahhaha:

Could have just let him vent his frustration.

As a "supposedly" positive person, you should be able to spread the positivity, no?
 

Dejaview

All Pro
Of course, there were players to fit a system before.
Didn't Kubiak find linemen that are efficient in space?
Productive TEs that can also block?
RBs that can make one cut and go?

Wade Phillips wants his players to play naturally, thus the match-man coverage.
D-lineman that play one gap.

As for the roster, do whatever, but don't treat money like it's there's an endless pit.

If a GM has to go through ten guys to find a good player then he's simply not good.
Any run-of-the-mill GM can do that.

For the game, any game, points are always the most important thing.
The Buccs can throw the ball at will, why do they need to bother with the running game?

They had 10 more first downs passing the ball.
One third of their carries were in the fourth quarter when they just want to take some time off the clock and go home.

They are returning all 22 starters; they had no need to do anything in the fourth quarter , or even the whole second half.
Your points just aren’t clear to me. Is your main point looking at 10 players to find one Is a bad GM? Every team is looking at 90 to field a team of 53 and are always looking to get better. The Texans are more solid in many areas and are starting to get some accolades for the DL rebuild. It’s showing. Actually I can’t think of a single position we haven’t upgraded If that’s your question.
 

maverick512000

Hall of Fame
Kinda hard to get value for a guy that is soon going to have a grand jury indictment hanging of his head. I think expectations need to be lowered around these parts. What would you consider fair value for a guy that there's a 50/50 chance his next team is the mean machine?
The longer this goes the less likely I think it will make it to trial. If for no other reason than I don’t think you'll find a DA willing to prosecute unless it’s an airtight, open and shut case which sexual assaults never are.

Oh I think at some point Watson will just have to start adding zeros to a check until he’s told to stop and the NFL will do a token punishment of a few games just so they can say they did something but long term I’m leaning more to it not changing anything.

Thing is the new contract doesn’t fully kick in till next year anyway so it’s worth the 10 million just to see what the market for him does. I would not let him sit around as the 4th string QB though, put him out there and either he plays, he sits out and loses money, or he tanks and then you are no worse off draft wise and he has hurt his own reputation as a player.

Said from the beginning the worst thing the Texans can do in this entire situation is blink.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
The longer this goes the less likely I think it will make it to trial. If for no other reason than I don’t think you'll find a DA willing to prosecute unless it’s an airtight, open and shut case which sexual assaults never are.

Oh I think at some point Watson will just have to start adding zeros to a check until he’s told to stop and the NFL will do a token punishment of a few games just so they can say they did something but long term I’m leaning more to it not changing anything.

Thing is the new contract doesn’t fully kick in till next year anyway so it’s worth the 10 million just to see what the market for him does. I would not let him sit around as the 4th string QB though, put him out there and either he plays, he sits out and loses money, or he tanks and then you are no worse off draft wise and he has hurt his own reputation as a player.

Said from the beginning the worst thing the Texans can do in this entire situation is blink.
You think he's going to be able to pay off the women who filed criminally but not civilly?

So far Caserio hasn't blinked. I just don't think going to get as much as you think you are in a trade for a serial sexual predator.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
A real genius wouldn’t have to second guess. What if Lawson performed at a higher level. Has NC hit on other DL players?
Stop moving the goalposts. Your original post proclaimed the 2nd Lawson trade was indicative of Caserio's intelligence as a GM. I pointed out the big picture of the trade. I haven't crapped on every Caserio move. If you look back, you'll see I applauded several. The Cobb deal, for one. But, every move Caserio makes does not turn to gold. In this case, it cost over $8 million in cap space.

Am I happy that Caserio didn't hold on to Lawson, despite the cap hit? Yes. It was the right thing to do. The smart thing was to never make the trade with the Dolphins, then renegotiate the contract before he plays a down for the team.

We have no idea if Caserio will or won't rebuild this team into a contender. But, we can say he's made some rookie GM mistakes regarding the cap. Let's stop pretending Caserio has the Midas touch.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
Stop moving the goalposts. Your original post proclaimed the 2nd Lawson trade was indicative of Caserio's intelligence as a GM. I pointed out the big picture of the trade. I haven't crapped on every Caserio move. If you look back, you'll see I applauded several. The Cobb deal, for one. But, every move Caserio makes does not turn to gold. In this case, it cost over $8 million in cap space.

Am I happy that Caserio didn't hold on to Lawson, despite the cap hit? Yes. It was the right thing to do. The smart thing was to never make the trade with the Dolphins, then renegotiate the contract before he plays a down for the team.

We have no idea if Caserio will or won't rebuild this team into a contender. But, we can say he's made some rookie GM mistakes regarding the cap. Let's stop pretending Caserio has the Midas touch.
True but you are moving the goalposts. I said nothing as I recall above about whether or not the trade was a good deal. That is water under the boat. I only applauded the fact they got a draft pick for him. That wasn’t water under the boat. Would you feel better if he just cut him? He got whacked because of competition which apparently is new to this TC.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Don't be a hater now.
You can disagree without being one, you know that.
honestly, its getting old & i don't understand how some here are fans with how they pretty much pan every move this team makes. My experience has led me to believe that in the vast majority of situations, those that act like they know definitively what should've been done, how something was going to play out or what they should've gotten back are quite frankly the most clueless. Look no further than the Clowney situation. The same folks ADAMANT that we should've pay him or were so sure his market commanded at least a 1st round pick or were positive we'd rue the day we let him walk.....were just just flat out wrong. 3 teams later, Clowney hasn't been able to stick with any team past 1 season, noone has paid him his big money contract & when you look back on it, we were lucky to get what we got for dude..which amounted to Jacob Martin and Jonathan Greenard..2 guys still contributing to this team & a chance to be in the future rebuild.

Bottom line is you take chances....that's the job from the draft to FA pick ups. & in NC's case he was left with scorched earth..people need to just relax & chill. No GM bats 1.00...Not even the beloved Chris Ballard............. who is now on his 3rd qb i might add.
 
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maverick512000

Hall of Fame
You think he's going to be able to pay off the women who filed criminally but not civilly?

So far Caserio hasn't blinked. I just don't think going to get as much as you think you are in a trade for a serial sexual predator.
Doesn't matter if they filed if the DA won't prosecute which I don't think you will find one that will unless, again, its an airtight case. I don't know about the hasn't blinked part either, I was really disappointed when they changed the training camp requirements to seemingly make it so Watson wouldn't get fined. I don't know there might be something I missed or that I don't know about but it didn't sit well with me.
 

maverick512000

Hall of Fame
honestly, its getting old & i don't understand how some here are fans with how they pretty much pan every move this team makes. My experience has led me to believe that in the vast majority of situations, those that act like they know definitively what should've been done, how something was going to play out or what they should've gotten back are quite frankly the most clueless. Look no further than the Clowney situation. You had people on here ADAMANT that we should pay him..then you had people on here who were so sure his market commanded at least a 1st round pick...Then you had those so sure we'd rue the day we let him walk.....Well, 3 teams later, Clowney hasn't been able to stick with any team past 1 season since he left here.

You take chances....that's the job from the draft to FA pick ups. & in NC's case he was left with scorched earth..people need to just relax & chill. No GM bats 1.00...Even the beloved Chris Ballard who is now on his 3rd qb.
I wanted him gone and was just glad to get rid of him at almost any price or baring that play him into the ground on the tag like a rental car. What does that say about me? :kitten:
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
I wanted him gone and was just glad to get rid of him at almost any price or baring that play him into the ground on the tag like a rental car. What does that say about me? :kitten:
Smart man. For me, I saw him as a good solid player who flashed, but he wanted great, dominant player money & he just wasn't that. & i have to believe that the reasons the Texans..err, BoB didn't want to pay him the type of money he wanted was b/c of everything they and we'd all saw....Yet you still had folks who just knew that it was a mistake to not pay him, to trade him and/or that we should've gotten 76896 1st round draft picks for him & they were just wrong.

Same thing with Keenum/Mallett....There were at least a few on here who were just downright adamant that we should've kept hold of 1, & immediately went to trade for & started the other b/c they just knew he'd be a better than Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2014 & Brian Hoyer in 2015....& were just wrong, wrong & wrong in all 3 instances.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Doesn't matter if they filed if the DA won't prosecute which I don't think you will find one that will unless, again, its an airtight case. I don't know about the hasn't blinked part either, I was really disappointed when they changed the training camp requirements to seemingly make it so Watson wouldn't get fined. I don't know there might be something I missed or that I don't know about but it didn't sit well with me.
If a grand jury indicts then there will probably be a trial. Hopefully this happens, I'm really looking forward to a trial. It should be great entertainment.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
honestly, its getting old & i don't understand how some here are fans with how they pretty much pan every move this team makes. My experience has led me to believe that in the vast majority of situations, those that act like they know definitively what should've been done, how something was going to play out or what they should've gotten back are quite frankly the most clueless. Look no further than the Clowney situation. The same folks ADAMANT that we should've pay him or were so sure his market commanded at least a 1st round pick or were positive we'd rue the day we let him walk.....were just just flat out wrong. 3 teams later, Clowney hasn't been able to stick with any team past 1 season, noone has paid him his big money contract & when you look back on it, we were lucky to get what we got for dude..which amounted to Jacob Martin and Jonathan Greenard..2 guys still contributing to this team & a chance to be in the future rebuild.

Bottom line is you take chances....that's the job from the draft to FA pick ups. & in NC's case he was left with scorched earth..people need to just relax & chill. No GM bats 1.00...Not even the beloved Chris Ballard............. who is now on his 3rd qb i might add.
Well, everybody could use a chill pill, but it's still a fact of life that fans criticize GMs' moves.

Steelb, who liked your last post, for example, was incessant with his Rick Smith's critics.

Nobody expects NC to bat 100.
But, to me, evaluating each move the GM makes is only par for the course.
Fans don't have to be know-it-all to do that.
It's what we do. :brando:
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
honestly, its getting old & i don't understand how some here are fans with how they pretty much pan every move this team makes. My experience has led me to believe that in the vast majority of situations, those that act like they know definitively what should've been done, how something was going to play out or what they should've gotten back are quite frankly the most clueless. Look no further than the Clowney situation. The same folks ADAMANT that we should've pay him or were so sure his market commanded at least a 1st round pick or were positive we'd rue the day we let him walk.....were just just flat out wrong. 3 teams later, Clowney hasn't been able to stick with any team past 1 season, noone has paid him his big money contract & when you look back on it, we were lucky to get what we got for dude..which amounted to Jacob Martin and Jonathan Greenard..2 guys still contributing to this team & a chance to be in the future rebuild.

Bottom line is you take chances....that's the job from the draft to FA pick ups. & in NC's case he was left with scorched earth..people need to just relax & chill. No GM bats 1.00...Not even the beloved Chris Ballard............. who is now on his 3rd qb i might add.
Regarding Clowney, I believe the critics pointed mainly at the timing of the trade and the fact that the Texans had to eat $7M of his contract, or something like that.

I don't know about others, but IMO, Clowney was only good for a team ready to challenge for a deep playoff run. As a GM, I would operate on that premise.
Obviously, since I didn't believe the Texans can be a serious contender, I would have off-load him during the off-season.

At any rate, Clowney may not be all that, but he served the Seahawks well enough.

 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Well, everybody could use a chill pill, but it's still a fact of life that fans criticize GMs' moves.

Steelb, who liked your last post, for example, was incessant with his Rick Smith's critics.

Nobody expects NC to bat 100.
But, to me, evaluating each move the GM makes is only par for the course.
Fans don't have to be know-it-all to do that.
It's what we do. :brando:
So what do you expect a GM's success percentage to be?

The problem for me personally is, the know-it-alls don't know that they don't know it all...and their "evaluations" come off more like skip bayless hot takes...i.e. throwing **** up against the wall and seeing what sticks just so they can say "i told you so". As i said in my last post, these guys make moves some pan out, alot don't. That's what the job is & its why its got the 2nd highest turnover amongst football front office operations.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Regarding Clowney, I believe the critics pointed mainly at the timing of the trade and the fact that the Texans had to eat $7M of his contract, or something like that.

I don't know about others, but IMO, Clowney was only good for a team ready to challenge for a deep playoff run. As a GM, I would operate on that premise.
Obviously, since I didn't believe the Texans can be a serious contender, I would have off-load him during the off-season.

At any rate, Clowney may not be all that, but he served the Seahawks well enough.

So well, they released him the next year.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Well, that's what I mean.
He served his role for that year, but the Seahawks know not to give him a long-term contract on the high end.
He's like a shooter for hire, to me.
Per job.
I think they saw the same things we did. Nearly limitless potential, but no real skill as a pass rush beyond a bull rush & then the injuries...unwarranted arrogance for a guy with such limited skills as a pass rusher.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
So what do you expect a GM's success percentage to be?

The problem for me personally is, the know-it-alls don't know that they don't know it all...and their "evaluations" come off more like skip bayless hot takes...i.e. throwing **** up against the wall and seeing what sticks just so they can say "i told you so". As i said in my last post, these guys make moves some pan out, alot don't. That's what the job is & its why its got the 2nd highest turnover amongst football front office operations.
It's not an easy number to define.

We know that the shell life of players are much shorter now.

As I had said before, a third rounder really needs to become a starter year one or two.

By the same token, a fourth rounder, a good GM should find more starters in that round than in the past.
The rest should be solid rotational players.

If a GM have some misses there, he should at least be able to compensate by finding more football players in the late rounds or as UDFAs.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
It's not an easy number to define.

We know that the shell life of players are much shorter now.

As I had said before, a third rounder really needs to become a starter year one or two.

By the same token, a fourth rounder, a good GM should find more starters in that round than in the past.
The rest should be solid rotational players.

If a GM have some misses there, he should at least be able to compensate by finding more football players in the late rounds or as UDFAs.
I don't see any empirical evidence to suggest what you're saying here is any different than it was in the past. I've always thought that 3rd rounders were expected to be starters by year 2 & 4th rounders are developmental guys that if developed correctly would wind up as solid rotational guys.

So i don't think there's a true percentage anyone can settle on. There's just too many moving parts on a football organization that can determine the fates of these guys.
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
So what do you expect a GM's success percentage to be?

The problem for me personally is, the know-it-alls don't know that they don't know it all...and their "evaluations" come off more like skip bayless hot takes...i.e. throwing **** up against the wall and seeing what sticks just so they can say "i told you so". As i said in my last post, these guys make moves some pan out, alot don't. That's what the job is & its why its got the 2nd highest turnover amongst football front office operations.
For most it is drafting a franchise QB.

I would say that is going to be the case for NC too.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
For most it is drafting a franchise QB.

I would say that is going to be the case for NC too.
Well in that regard, everyone's favorite GM Chris Ballard is a certified fail b/c he's yet to do that & is on his 3rd qb since taking the job in Indy. Aside from that, the guy he did draft (Jacob Eason) doesn't look all that great.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I don't see any empirical evidence to suggest what you're saying here is any different than it was in the past. I've always thought that 3rd rounders were expected to be starters by year 2 & 4th rounders are developmental guys that if developed correctly would wind up as solid rotational guys.

So i don't think there's a true percentage anyone can settle on. There's just too many moving parts on a football organization that can determine the fates of these guys.
I had posted a link of a study (lately) about the career span of NFL players these days.
That's why you can see rosters turning more quickly than just a decade ago.

Now, the more fourth rounders to become starters the better (lower salary).

Teams can only afford to pay top dollars for a number of difference makers.
 
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