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Nick Caserio - New GM

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Well in that regard, everyone's favorite GM Chris Ballard is a certified fail b/c he's yet to do that & is on his 3rd qb since taking the job in Indy. Aside from that, the guy he did draft (Jacob Eason) doesn't look all that great.
It looks to me like Ballard chose to go the route of a veteran QB (as rentals) to win now.

Eason was mid-to-late fourth rounder.
If he becomes a mini-Schaub, it would be good enough a grade.
If he becomes a solid backup, it's at least par for the course.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
It looks to me like Ballard chose to go the route of a veteran QB (as rentals) to win now.

Eason was mid-to-late fourth rounder.
If he becomes a mini-Schaub, it would be good enough a grade.
If he becomes a solid backup, it's at least par for the course.
Except the Colts aren't really winning...at least any more than the Texans were under Smith/Gaine/BoB. In the time he's been GM for the Colts, they haven't done much better, if at all better than the Texans. 2 losing seasons, 2 winning seasons & 2 early exits in the playoffs. Andrew Luck's last 2 seasons under him only netted a divisional loss to the Chiefs. Since then its been Jacoby Brissett, and a washed Phillip Rivers. He's largely made his reputation off of 1 draft when he netted Nelson,Leonard & Smith. A draft in which they were drafting pretty high in every round. Since then tho, its been largely alot of meh guys & in the case of Malik Hooker, flat out busts.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Except the Colts aren't really winning...at least any more than the Texans were under Smith/Gaine/BoB. In the time he's been GM for the Colts, they haven't done much better, if at all better than the Texans. 2 losing seasons, 2 winning seasons & 2 early exits in the playoffs. Andrew Luck's last 2 seasons under him only netted a divisional loss to the Chiefs. Since then its been Jacoby Brissett, and a washed Phillip Rivers. He's largely made his reputation off of 1 draft when he netted Nelson,Leonard & Smith. A draft in which they were drafting pretty high in every round. Since then tho, its been largely alot of meh guys & in the case of Malik Hooker, flat out busts.
It was unfortunate for them that Luck was injured.
Ballard and Reich were stuck that year 2019.
Rivers played his part.
The Colts got some injuries, but they were still in the playoffs.
Sometimes, you need some luck in that department.
See how the Chiefs fared in the SB when the offensive line was short-handed.

Had Reich run a different offense rather than the WCO, the Colts could have been a landing spot for Brady, I'd say.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
It was unfortunate for them that Luck was injured.
Ballard and Reich were stuck that year 2019.
Rivers played his part.
The Colts got some injuries, but they were still in the playoffs.
Sometimes, you need some luck in that department.
See how the Chiefs fared in the SB when the offensive line was short-handed.

Had Reich run a different offense rather than the WCO, the Colts could have been a landing spot for Brady, I'd say.
Well, that's where we can both agree somewhat, b/c my belief is you ALWAYS need luck to go on SB runs...unless you have TB12. & that luck can very often..& quickly go against you too though. Just like the Colts were "unfortunate" Luck got injured and abruptly retired on them, We were "unfortunate" in that our franchise guy chose to be a sensitive & potential serial predator who has left this team in a lurch.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Well, that's where we can both agree somewhat, b/c my belief is you ALWAYS need luck to go on SB runs...unless you have TB12. & that luck can very often..& quickly go against you too though. Just like the Colts were "unfortunate" Luck got injured and abruptly retired on them, We were "unfortunate" in that our franchise guy chose to be a sensitive & potential serial predator who has left this team in a lurch.
SB bound is one thing, but a contender is the next best thing.
The Colts, with a little luck (fewer than average injuries) were serious contenders.
They were 8th before the 2020 season in odds to reach the SB.
That means talent, most likely, wouldn't you say?
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
SB bound is one thing, but a contender is the next best thing.
The Colts, with a little luck (fewer than average injuries) were serious contenders.
They were 8th before the 2020 season in odds to reach the SB.
That means talent, most likely, wouldn't you say?
Means nothing to me imo...Vegas is just guessing & placing a high percentage of their guessing on the talent under center, not the overall team...basically like we and most others who watch the game do. I don't have to look at a Vegas odds book to know that TB, GB, KC & probably the Bills are in their top 5 of teams who have the best odds to win the SB. & Im equally sure that they didn't have the Bills in their top 5 at the start of last year with Allen coming off that 2019 playoff disaster.
 

banned1976

All Pro
To me the real test of him as a GM will be what, if anything, he gets for Watson. If he gets a kings ransom then I’m satisfied, if he sticks to his guns and makes Watson play out his contract if no team meets his price or Watson doesn’t wave the NTC, then I’m satisfied. However, if he gets fleeced on what should be the biggest trade in modern NFL history then nothing sort of a SB ring would redeem him in my eyes.
I agree, except that...

The REAL test for Caserio will come after the Watson trade. If the Texans get the picks they're looking for in return for him (they're allegedly asking for three 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks) and with those picks they receive some good, not great players while Watson goes on to continue his rise in the quarterback rankings, the trade wouldn't look so great. And that's always been the inherent risk in trading guys like Watson. Specifically, quarterbacks like Watson. It's hard to adequately determine his value. And that was even before all this sexual assault mess. Now it's absolutely impossible, in my estimation.

Caserio walked right into the biggest conundrum, toughest challenge I think a GM in any sport has ever walked into. If he can turn this team into a winner (10+ season win total) within 3 years, I'd think he's done a pretty good job. As for the immediate future in regards to Watson...

Like several other people have said on this board, my preference would be Caserio telling Watson to suit up or pay the penalty (fines) for holding out. Go after his money. With some of these guys, that's the only thing that they respond to and it appears Watson is one of those guys.
 

amazing80

Fire Easterby
I agree, except that...

The REAL test for Caserio will come after the Watson trade. If the Texans get the picks they're looking for in return for him (they're allegedly asking for three 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks) and with those picks they receive some good, not great players while Watson goes on to continue his rise in the quarterback rankings, the trade wouldn't look so great. And that's always been the inherent risk in trading guys like Watson. Specifically, quarterbacks like Watson. It's hard to adequately determine his value. And that was even before all this sexual assault mess. Now it's absolutely impossible, in my estimation.

Caserio walked right into the biggest conundrum, toughest challenge I think a GM in any sport has ever walked into. If he can turn this team into a winner (10+ season win total) within 3 years, I'd think he's done a pretty good job. As for the immediate future in regards to Watson...

Like several other people have said on this board, my preference would be Caserio telling Watson to suit up or pay the penalty (fines) for holding out. Go after his money. With some of these guys, that's the only thing that they respond to and it appears Watson is one of those guys.
Excellent post.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Regarding Clowney, I believe the critics pointed mainly at the timing of the trade and the fact that the Texans had to eat $7M of his contract, or something like that.

I don't know about others, but IMO, Clowney was only good for a team ready to challenge for a deep playoff run. As a GM, I would operate on that premise.
Obviously, since I didn't believe the Texans can be a serious contender, I would have off-load him during the off-season.

At any rate, Clowney may not be all that, but he served the Seahawks well enough.

There was a poster, I believe his name was gaftop that suggested Gaine trade Clowney the offseason before he was traded to get maximum value for Clowney. I thought he was crazy, but he turned out to be spot on. With Clowney's knee and contract demands, you were never going to get a 1st rd pick for him. I really didn't like having to eat the 7 mil either.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
So what do you expect a GM's success percentage to be?

The problem for me personally is, the know-it-alls don't know that they don't know it all...and their "evaluations" come off more like skip bayless hot takes...i.e. throwing **** up against the wall and seeing what sticks just so they can say "i told you so". As i said in my last post, these guys make moves some pan out, alot don't. That's what the job is & its why its got the 2nd highest turnover amongst football front office operations.

I had posted a link of a study (lately) about the career span of NFL players these days.
That's why you can see rosters turning more quickly than just a decade ago.

Now, the more fourth rounders to become starters the better (lower salary).

Teams can only afford to pay top dollars for a number of difference makers.
I will give you a number of holes I expect to be filled each yr. 4 to 5.

3 through the draft. I want to hit on my 1st/2nd rd picks for long time starters and I'm willing to trade a 3rd/4th/6th to move into the 2nd to get another long time starter.

Or hit on your 1st rd pick and trade back into the 1st for another longtime starter.

In FA I expect the team to sign an impact player and then try to add a 2nd starter like that may have been injured say like Malik Hooker that caught on with the Cowboys or Britt/Kirksey who caught on with the Texans.
 
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paycheck71

Hall of Fame
Dang the presser for me quit streaming right when he was answering a question about using late round picks to get some players in the building. He said it’s a process that probably isn’t going to quit then……….I’ll have to wait for the written transcript, lol.
I listened live, and IIRC, he basically said, everybody does it, we're going to keep doing it, it's a process, you evaluate the risk/reward and move accordingly. That's the gist of it.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
It's a value thing
Yep,

Is using a 7th worth getting a WR like Tyron Johnson? I would say the chances of finding a guy as good as Johnson in the 7th is rare. In fact Johnson is the type of guy you hope to hit on in the 7th rd.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Talented speedster for sure but unreliable hands and now suspect character issues that could be disruptive to a locker room. I’ll pass too.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
@Mangler mentioned this in another thread.


Nick Caserio should upgrade both the offensive and defensive line,
I don’t think you’re ever finished, but I think the OL is in really good shape. I mean if we have the opportunity to draft a stud OL, by all means do it.

But I think something drastic would have to happen (LT trade) I don’t see OL as something to fret about in the next draft.
 

Mangler

All Pro
@Mangler mentioned this in another thread.




I don’t think you’re ever finished, but I think the OL is in really good shape. I mean if we have the opportunity to draft a stud OL, by all means do it.

But I think something drastic would have to happen (LT trade) I don’t see OL as something to fret about in the next draft.
Fair enough. Maybe go all in on improving the defensive front and CB position then. Either way, I trust Caserio does the right thing.
 

TexansBull

Hall of Fame
What a mastermind to ensure the first pick of the draft!

He made sure we got a QB that will look awesome for a few games before being hurt as often as he does, and then got a rookie QB that would be lucky to win a game.

And - if this is to get Watson to suit up and play a game this season because we have no QB at 1 or 2, well then I must say he has been playing 3D chess.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
What a mastermind to ensure the first pick of the draft!

He made sure we got a QB that will look awesome for a few games before being hurt as often as he does, and then got a rookie QB that would be lucky to win a game.

And - if this is to get Watson to suit up and play a game this season because we have no QB at 1 or 2, well then I must say he has been playing 3D chess.
Like I said the 3rd string QB hopefully never plays another down for the Texans.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I think you will find that every rebuilding team has different approach to Nick Caserio's unorthodox contrarian style. Or should I say Jack Easterby's?
He might get saved with a boat load of picks from the Watson's trade or he might get a save if things turn out badly on that end.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
Interesting article.

Read the article. Sure would’ve liked the article to take into account the draft, financial and cap situations.

Texans had to get through 2021 before moving forward with the rebuild via the draft.

I believe Caserio has his hopes in 2021….that his draft picks pan out, a few of his signings prove to be hidden gems, any player designated as a bridge player…does his job, and the coaching staff proves to be the right group for the job. This will set the table for the 2022 agenda.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
He might get saved with a boat load of picks from the Watson's trade or he might get a save if things turn out badly on that end.
You assume that Caserio actually knows what he is doing.

Based on Caserio's 9 month Texans operating history I expect a less than satisfactory outcome. I mean the man took 10 draft picks and turned them into 5. He also signed over 30 free agents turning the Texans into the oldest team in the league.

This when one would think that rebuilding success is based on more drafts picks equal more better younger players (not less) who would remain on the roster longer than the over the hill gang. When you compound this with the hiring of a head coach who will only be around for a year or two sets up a major change in coaching staffs, offensive and defensive schemes, culture and over a 50% roster change when the 30+ FAs are gone.

Caserio's approach could be classified as 1 step forward, 5 steps back. In 2023 - 2025 the Texans will be in the same place they were in 2021.
 
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76Texan

Hall of Fame
Read the article. Sure would’ve liked the article to take into account the draft, financial and cap situations.

Texans had to get through 2021 before moving forward with the rebuild via the draft.

I believe Caserio has his hopes in 2021….that his draft picks pan out, a few of his signings prove to be hidden gems, any player designated as a bridge player…does his job, and the coaching staff proves to be the right group for the job. This will set the table for the 2022 agenda.
We shall see.
No early judgement from me.
Just some notes to help with my failing memory. :brando:
 
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76Texan

Hall of Fame
What is unorthodox about getting rid of bad contracts and bringing in veteran leadership? You can’t add youth through the draft if you don’t have draft picks.
But he had all the draft picks.
I don't know how many times I've said Tunsil was the 1st and 2nd round picks.
With any luck, NC will have some compensatory picks next year.
And did the Texans get an extra pick or two for hiring minority coaches?
 
But he had all the draft picks.
I don't know how many times I've said Tunsil was the 1st and 2nd round picks.

With any luck, NC will have some compensatory picks next year.
And did the Texans get an extra pick or two for hiring minority coaches?
But that was not his move so he did not have those 1st and 2nd rd picks, it was an inheritance where the tax was more than the value. :brando:
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
But that was not his move so he did not have those 1st and 2nd rd picks, it was an inheritance where the tax was more than the value. :brando:
He had this year to either remove that contract and/or absorb some financial loss in a trade that net a pick or two.

For example, a straight cut would have removed pretty much all of the guaranteed money (2020, 20211).

Only then that I would say he did not have a first and second picks and no player either.

You can't take the cake and eat it, too.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
What is unorthodox about getting rid of bad contracts and bringing in veteran leadership? You can’t add youth through the draft if you don’t have draft picks.
He's just being this way because Caserio chose Mills over the Center he wanted. Mills is looking like a good pick to me and if they hit on Mills/Collins I will be happy since Caserio didn't have rd 1-2 draft picks. Using late rd draft picks to trade up and get the guy you want isn't a bad idea.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
He's just being this way because Caserio chose Mills over the Center he wanted. Mills is looking like a good pick to me and if they hit on Mills/Collins I will be happy since Caserio didn't have rd 1-2 draft picks. Using late rd draft picks to trade up and get the guy you want isn't a bad idea.
On the other hand, you want both the first two round picks and a franchised LT.
What kind of argument is that?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
On the other hand, you want both the first two round picks and a franchised LT.
What kind of argument is that?
I'm not following you.

Yes, I want to keep a pro bowl LT to protect the young QB.

I dont care how many late rd picks Caserio trades to go up and get a guy he thinks can be a difference maker. (Collins) I will consider this draft a success if they hit on Mills/Collins. But particularly Mills, what were your expectations of Caserio in last yrs draft?
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
I'm not following you.

Yes, I want to keep a pro bowl LT to protect the young QB.

I dont care how many late rd picks Caserio trades to go up and get a guy he thinks can be a difference maker. (Collins) I will consider this draft a success if they hit on Mills/Collins. But particularly Mills, what were your expectations of Caserio in last yrs draft?
Don’t forget Roy Lopez. The rare 6th round pick rookie starter that is playing reasonably well!
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I'm not following you.

Yes, I want to keep a pro bowl LT to protect the young QB.

I dont care how many late rd picks Caserio trades to go up and get a guy he thinks can be a difference maker. (Collins) I will consider this draft a success if they hit on Mills/Collins. But particularly Mills, what were your expectations of Caserio in last yrs draft?
I was talking about the 1st and 2nd round picks the Texans didn't have in the last draft.
Those are for Tunsil.

NC also get a 6th rounder from that trade with the Dolphins.

Plus another 6th round pick from the Saints.

He used those trades to move up.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Interesting article.

I rue the day we start doing things like the Lions. If they get it right this time, it will be like the blind pig thing. They've tried every other way.

I mean the man took 10 draft picks and turned them into 5.
Time will tell. Personally I think I like the philosophy. Target your players, get your players. Move up, move down as needed to get the guys you want. Work the draft, don't wait on the draft.

He also signed over 30 free agents turning the Texans into the oldest team in the league.
Again, I like this. He essentially turned this into an expansion team, giving it a solid foundation on which to build. The alternative, building it on draft picks & UDFA, making it the youngest team in the league... or basically a college team.

The goal is to win games. We'll see who gets to the playoffs first. The Texans, or the Lions, or the Jets, or the Jaguars.
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Well, yeah, if you don't count his 80% missed tackle rate. And I liked what I saw from Lopez during camp.

BTW, the Texans are averaging 11 missed tackles per game, most in the league.
Where did you get that stat? Before the Panthers game 610 had a stat that he had the “highest run stop win rate” in the league.

There are too many stats to follow nowadays in the nextgen stat pff era. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Again, I like this. He essentially turned this into an expansion team, giving it a solid foundation on which to build. The alternative, building it on draft picks & UDFA, making it the youngest team in the league... or basically a college team.
Never mind; I'm not sure I understand what you said there.
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Pro Football Reference
Interesting stat. But i’d wager (if I could find it) that the Texans defense is also playing more snaps than other defenses. Christian Kirksey is listed as having played every snap on defense this year. 208 total, just short of 70 per game.

More plays, more opportunity to miss a tackle. Same as more opportunity to create turnovers (part of why Lovie’s defense is a plus). If teams have to drive the field with more plays per drive there is more opportunity to make a mistake for both teams.

 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Where did you get that stat? Before the Panthers game 610 had a stat that he had the “highest run stop win rate” in the league.

There are too many stats to follow nowadays in the nextgen stat pff era. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Feast or famine, it looks like.

I am sure they missed a lot of tackles.
I've been re-watching the games here and there.
It jumps out to me.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Interesting stat. But i’d wager (if I could find it) that the Texans defense is also playing more snaps than other defenses. Christian Kirksey is listed as having played every snap on defense this year. 208 total, just short of 70 per game.

More plays, more opportunity to miss a tackle. Same as more opportunity to create turnovers (part of why Lovie’s defense is a plus). If teams have to drive the field with more plays per drive there is more opportunity to make a mistake for both teams.

Just another case of the DVOA geeks not understanding why stats sometimes lie.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Interesting stat. But i’d wager (if I could find it) that the Texans defense is also playing more snaps than other defenses. Christian Kirksey is listed as having played every snap on defense this year. 208 total, just short of 70 per game.

More plays, more opportunity to miss a tackle. Same as more opportunity to create turnovers (part of why Lovie’s defense is a plus). If teams have to drive the field with more plays per drive there is more opportunity to make a mistake for both teams.

Nope, the Texans are at 21st as far as opponents' offensive plays are concerned.

 


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