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Nick Caserio - New GM

Number19

Hall of Fame
I don't expect much improvement on our defense and without a better than average quarterback our offense will struggle. There may be many games that get ugly fast. I would like to think there will be some signs of hope but I am not banking on it.
From what I'm hearing, the coaching change to a 4 - 3, alone, will produce significant improvement because this scheme is a better fit for our personnel.

And a run heavy, game management, offensive scheme, does not require a better than average QB.

I agree with Thorn that coaching just could be the difference. We have an extremely tough schedule, so we won't be in the playoff hunt. But if we play well against the lower tier teams, we could possibly be looking at 6 or 7 wins this year.

I'm still projecting 3 - 5 wins and will wait and see what comes out of training camp.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
From what I'm hearing, the coaching change to a 4 - 3, alone, will produce significant improvement because this scheme is a better fit for our personnel.

And a run heavy, game management, offensive scheme, does not require a better than average QB.

I agree with Thorn that coaching just could be the difference. We have an extremely tough schedule, so we won't be in the playoff hunt. But if we play well against the lower tier teams, we could possibly be looking at 6 or 7 wins this year.

I'm still projecting 3 - 5 wins and will wait and see what comes out of training camp.
Last year, entering the season, the Texans strength of schedule tied for 8th; this year, it's at 15th, quite a bit easier than last year, and they won't face as many explosive teams.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
We mortgaged the future? Already? With a 6th-for-7th swap?
Mortgaging the future has to do with restructuring five contracts to shuffle the bottom of the roster, not swapping picks. Caserio borrowed millions of $ from the 2022 and 2023 salary caps in order to rearrange chairs on the Titanic. Swapping a 6th for a 7th is a minor detail in wasting draft capital. Caserio started the draft with 8 draft picks, he also gave away 2 2022 draft picks in the process and only ended up with 5 draft picks. That's 10 draft picks for 5. Caserio gave up twice the trade value to move up for the 89th pick. Building and rebuilding your team you want to have more draft picks not less. I believe if this method of operation continues it will become a recipe for picking in the Top 10 for many years to come.
 
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76Texan

Hall of Fame
I don't expect much improvement on our defense and without a better than average quarterback our offense will struggle. There may be many games that get ugly fast. I think there will be signs of hope and I look forward to that.
On paper, the Texans added more "talents" on defense - or at least "less bad".

The D line is probably a wash - with the young guys expected to take another step to help Lawson offset the loss of JJ Watt.

Where upgrades were made is on the back end, with at least two guys that can replace the previous starters.

The Texans are likely to feature the run game as much as possible, keeping the opponents' off the field.
And like I said, the Texans will be facing fewer high octane offense.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Last year, entering the season, the Texans strength of schedule tied for 8th; this year, it's at 15th, quite a bit easier than last year, and they won't face as many explosive teams.
I use up to date power rankings. Seems if you go by last years strength of schedule, we may have an easier chance of having a good season, and I'm still not implying a playoff season, just a middle of the pack season.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I use up to date power rankings. Seems if you go by last years strength of schedule, we may have an easier chance of having a good season, and I'm still not implying a playoff season, just a middle of the pack season.
The strength of schedule is a fixed number.
Power Rankings; on the other hand, vary from one source to the next (and purely subjective).

Scroll down to the bottom for this year strength of schedule.

 

Number19

Hall of Fame
The strength of schedule is a fixed number.
Power Rankings; on the other hand, vary from one source to the next (and purely subjective).

Scroll down to the bottom for this year strength of schedule.

I don't disagree. When I have the opportunity I'll compare the two. However, a good power ranking takes into account the draft, acquisitions, coaching changes etc. But yes, still subjective. Just as an example, a team loses its star qb (as the Pats did). Would that team be as tough as an opponent following that loss? It's just two different ways of analyzing the upcoming season. Both if done diligently can be beneficial.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I don't disagree. When I have the opportunity I'll compare the two. However, a good power ranking takes into account the draft, acquisitions, coaching changes etc. But yes, still subjective. Just as an example, a team loses its star qb (as the Pats did). Would that team be as tough as an opponent following that loss? It's just two different ways of analyzing the upcoming season. Both if done diligently can be beneficial.
Good point.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
And build no continuity with the roster. However,...

This is not the year to jump to conclusions on Caserio's methods (because the roster sucked and the Texans had limited resources to make significant upgrades) but there are people doing so on both sides. You and Texian are polar opposites on the subject of NC's job performance. I'm somewhere in the middle, liking some of the things he's done here and not liking others (probably more of the dislike than like but again, casting final judgment is a bit premature, IMHO). That said, I don't trust the process by which this new cast of coaches and front office personnel was assembled. So, for that reason I remain a skeptic. I still believe there were better candidates than Caserio but Cal had his mind closed on the subject.
I'm trying to give Caserio a pass this season, simply because of the situation he inherited. That doesn't mean there hasn't been signs that don't give me much confidence. The apparent disregard for draft picks is one of those signs. Not that 6th round picks matter much in the grand scheme of things, until you're poo pooing them, then of course you get the Tom Brady posts, and all of a sudden they matter.

And believe me, I'm not losing sleep over a 6th round pick, but the thought process has me more than skeptical. Ryan Finley was going to be cut. The Texans are 3rd on the waiver wire. Jags and Jets were not claiming Ryan Finley. But for whatever reason the Texans felt it necessary to throw away a draft pick for nothing. That's what I have issues with.

I don't care that the Texans felt they needed a QB in March. I don't care that Finley is on the team or not on the team. What bothers me is the wastefulness of a pick, any pick, that you didn’t have to give up. There was zero reason to make that trade.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
The Texans are likely to feature the run game as much as possible, keeping the opponents' off the field.
& it's not like we need 6 or 7 minute drives. Those would be great. But 4 & 5 minute drives would have helped out a lot last season, especially at the end of games.

Watson's highlights were great, I loved watching the kid play.

But the all or nothing mentality wasn't always conducive to winning games. Not with the defense we had.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
What bothers me is the wastefulness of a pick, any pick, that you didn’t have to give up. There was zero reason to make that trade.
eh... didn't bother me. Not until they cut him.

I also raised an eyebrow with his draft. I don't value 4th & 5th round picks as much as some here do. I'm 80% sure they won't be getting a 2nd contract with us.

I did expect some wheeling & dealing, but I expected the 2022 draft would be stronger for it. But we lost ground.

So for me, the "good will" is running out. Maybe enough left to keep him on my good side through next draft, but I don't know.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
eh... didn't bother me. Not until they cut him.

I also raised an eyebrow with his draft. I don't value 4th & 5th round picks as much as some here do. I'm 80% sure they won't be getting a 2nd contract with us.

I did expect some wheeling & dealing, but I expected the 2022 draft would be stronger for it. But we lost ground.

So for me, the "good will" is running out. Maybe enough left to keep him on my good side through next draft, but I don't know.
And that leads me back to why even have the draft go past 5 rounds?

2nd contracts are not what it's about. Getting cheap guys who can contribute to help keep you from being up against the cap, that's where those picks matter the most.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Getting cheap guys who can contribute to help keep you from being up against the cap, that's where those picks matter the most.
& those guys generally get 2nd contracts. If not with the team that drafted them, with another team.

Semantics.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
& those guys generally get 2nd contracts. If not with the team that drafted them, with another team.

Semantics.
What?

First you say 80% don't get 2nd contracts, now they generally do? Make up your mind.
Who the **** cares what they get with another team? The point is, you always need to keep the stream of cheap rookie contracts flowing. If you find a diamond deserving of a 2nd contract great, if not, you move on.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
First you say 80% don't get 2nd contracts, now they generally do?
That is not what I said.

80% don't get 2nd contracts. The day 3 picks that provide cheap contribution fall into the 20% that do get 2nd contracts.

It's probably 70/30... but the point is Most 6th & 7th round picks are cut before the season starts. Most 4th & 5th round picks are trying out for their 2nd teams before their 3rd season.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
& it's not like we need 6 or 7 minute drives. Those would be great. But 4 & 5 minute drives would have helped out a lot last season, especially at the end of games.

Watson's highlights were great, I loved watching the kid play.

But the all or nothing mentality wasn't always conducive to winning games. Not with the defense we had.
Not really.
Not at all.

For a team that often played behind, the Texans only totaled 5 more passing attempts than the opponents, getting the same number of first down with the pass (222).

The D just couldn't contain the run, a far cry from the abysmal running game the Texans put up.

 
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76Texan

Hall of Fame
That is not what I said.

80% don't get 2nd contracts. The day 3 picks that provide cheap contribution fall into the 20% that do get 2nd contracts.

It's probably 70/30... but the point is Most 6th & 7th round picks are cut before the season starts. Most 4th & 5th round picks are trying out for their 2nd teams before their 3rd season.
The Chiefs got a good return for their 4th-7th round pick, and a couple of UDFAs in the last 4-5 years.
Hill, especially, was a late fifth.
They got an UDFA CB (C. Ward) as a starter in his 2nd and 3rd year and counting.
They took an UDFA Olineman that bounced around the PS of 3 different teams in his rookie year and turned him into a starter (Andrew Wylie) the next 3 years and counting.
They got a 7th rounder G to start 9 games in his second year.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
So which point that I didn't make are you arguing?




Yes.
4th rounder and later are important.
.....
It was the difference between the running game that led to more possession time for the opponent, not "Watson's penchant for the long ball" that you wrongly proclaimed.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
& it's not like we need 6 or 7 minute drives. Those would be great. But 4 & 5 minute drives would have helped out a lot last season, especially at the end of games.

Watson's highlights were great, I loved watching the kid play.

But the all or nothing mentality wasn't always conducive to winning games. Not with the defense we had.
Where did I read wrong?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
This was where the disagreement started.
We disagree that I don't value 4th & 5th round picks as much as some people here do? Friend, I got that from a very good source. It's true.

I don't.


Where did I read wrong?
I never mentioned any penchant for "the long ball." I was saying there's a time to let it fly & a time to control the game. Did you skip the part about 4 minute drives at the end of games?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
eh... didn't bother me. Not until they cut him.

I also raised an eyebrow with his draft. I don't value 4th & 5th round picks as much as some here do. I'm 80% sure they won't be getting a 2nd contract with us.

I did expect some wheeling & dealing, but I expected the 2022 draft would be stronger for it. But we lost ground.

So for me, the "good will" is running out. Maybe enough left to keep him on my good side through next draft, but I don't know.
How much ground did they really lose?
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
I'm trying to give Caserio a pass this season, simply because of the situation he inherited. That doesn't mean there hasn't been signs that don't give me much confidence. The apparent disregard for draft picks is one of those signs. Not that 6th round picks matter much in the grand scheme of things, until you're poo pooing them, then of course you get the Tom Brady posts, and all of a sudden they matter.

And believe me, I'm not losing sleep over a 6th round pick, but the thought process has me more than skeptical. Ryan Finley was going to be cut. The Texans are 3rd on the waiver wire. Jags and Jets were not claiming Ryan Finley. But for whatever reason the Texans felt it necessary to throw away a draft pick for nothing. That's what I have issues with.

I don't care that the Texans felt they needed a QB in March. I don't care that Finley is on the team or not on the team. What bothers me is the wastefulness of a pick, any pick, that you didn’t have to give up. There was zero reason to make that trade.
Speedy gets it.
 
The Chiefs got a good return for their 4th-7th round pick, and a couple of UDFAs in the last 4-5 years.
Hill, especially, was a late fifth.
They got an UDFA CB (C. Ward) as a starter in his 2nd and 3rd year and counting.
They took an UDFA Olineman that bounced around the PS of 3 different teams in his rookie year and turned him into a starter (Andrew Wylie) the next 3 years and counting.
They got a 7th rounder G to start 9 games in his second year.
Excellent research. I would imagine you could find plenty of late round success stories around the league with further research. I do agree that late rounders are not often as successful as picks in the earlier rounds but you can't beat the value of finding those late rounders that contrubute your team. Those GM's with a keen eye for talent throughout whole drafts are the ones who are most likely to contruibute to a title or titles.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Excellent research. I would imagine you could find plenty of late round success stories around the league with further research. I do agree that late rounders are not often as successful as picks in the earlier rounds but you can't beat the value of finding those late rounders that contrubute your team. Those GM's with a keen eye for talent throughout whole drafts are the ones who are most likely to contruibute to a title or titles.
You also have to factor in coaching. Example: Coaches like Andy Reid, Sean Payton and a few other coaches know how to get the best or develop late rounders.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
We disagree that I don't value 4th & 5th round picks as much as some people here do? Friend, I got that from a very good source. It's true.

I don't.




I never mentioned any penchant for "the long ball." I was saying there's a time to let it fly & a time to control the game. Did you skip the part about 4 minute drives at the end of games?
I'll need to tally a lot of numbers from a couple of websites that study the round by round drafts, and I'm not sure when I can get to all that (they were not in a concise format that can easily be used.)

...

As for the 3-4 minute drives in the fourth quarter, let's start with the Steelers game.

Go to the play by play section at the bottom of the page here:

At the end of the third quarter, the Texans started a 3-1/2 minute drive that was stalled because:

- At the Steelers 38, Watson threw a WR screen to Cooks that lost 5 yard to make it 2nd and 15.
- On second down, Watson was pressured and sort of threw the ball away in the direction of the TE Fells (short pass incomplete.)
- On third and 15 at the Steelers 43; there was no receiver open in the intermediate area. Watson was pressured and rolled out. He threw a deep ball that was intercepted (like a punt).
I don't see how he can follow your wish there???

On the next and also the last drive:

- 1st and 10 @ HTN 25
@1:22 of the video.
T J beat the RT right off the bat to sack Watson for a loss of 11.

- On 2nd and 21, Watson threw a incompletion on a short pass to Cooks.

- Fells' false start made it 3rd and 26.

- Watson then threw to Stillf for 16.

What else do you want him to do?

.......

Do the same with the play by play of the close games: Vikings, Titans, Jags, Browns, Colts (bad snap by Martin), next Colts game (fumble by Kekee), Bengals (sack fumble as 67 got beat right off the bat), last game of the season (defense allowed the Titans to score with 18 seconds left.)

In the first Titans game specifically, Watson took the Texans on a 6 minute and 40 second drive to take the lead 36-29.
With 1:50 left, the D allowed the Titans to tie the game and won it in OT with a TD in their first drive.

Bengals

I honestly don't know what you were looking at.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Speedy gets it.
I just don't think any move Caserio has made moves the needle.

The biggest move Caserio made was drafting Mills. Hopefully Mills hits.

It doesn't matter to some DW4 fanboys. Trust me, Mills is going to struggle next year and the fanboys will be out in full force.

I'm going to enjoy the entertainment.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I just don't think any move Caserio has made moves the needle.

The biggest move Caserio made was drafting Mills. Hopefully Mills hits.

It doesn't matter to some DW4 fanboys. Trust me, Mills is going to struggle next year and the fanboys will be out in full force.

I'm going to enjoy the entertainment.
So you think of a guy that will struggle as "the biggest move"?

That demm bar is really low. :ahhaha:
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
So you think of a guy that will struggle as "the biggest move"?

That demm bar is really low. :ahhaha:
You know as well as I do most rookies struggle. Mills will probably struggle too.

I can't wait for your, he's not as good as DW4 analysis.

My reply will be of course he's not. He's a rookie with 11 college starts. What do you expect? It's not like he's in yr 4-5 of his NFL career.

Nice try at setting an undercover narrative though.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
You know as well as I do most rookies struggle. Mills will probably struggle too.

I can't wait for your, he's not as good as DW4 analysis.

My reply will be of course he's not. He's a rookie with 11 college starts. What do you expect? It's not like he's in yr 4-5 of his NFL career.

Nice try at setting an undercover narrative though.
Of course he's nowhere as good as Watson was in college.
No need to analyze.
And Watson did not struggle as a rookie despite playing behind a line that ranked last and allowed the most pressure by a wide margin.


But no, I won't be comparing Mills with anybody.
If he plays, he will be judged as part of an offensive unit (by me).

I'm not one of those who thinks the QB is responsible for EVERYTHING.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Of course he's nowhere as good as Watson was in college.
No need to analyze.
And Watson did not struggle as a rookie despite playing behind a line that ranked last and allowed the most pressure by a wide margin.


But no, I won't be comparing Mills with anybody.
If he plays, he will be judged as part of an offensive unit (by me).

I'm not one of those who thinks the QB is responsible for EVERYTHING.
To be fair DW4 played great for 5 games before getting hurt.
 

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
James Liipfert
Liip and Matt Bazirgan were both given 'assistant directors of player personnel' titles under Caserio, basically James being elevated to Matt's level.

As has been the norm with Caserio, less emphasis placed on formal job titles -- Director of Player Personnel, College Scouting Director, Director of Pro Personnel -- because there's typically a lot of crossover between college/pro/advance scouting. Along with leveraging each guy's strengths to the betterment of the team, part of a good GM's job is to prepare these guys to be GMs themselves.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Liip and Matt Bazirgan were both given 'assistant directors of player personnel' titles under Caserio, basically James being elevated to Matt's level.

As has been the norm with Caserio, less emphasis placed on formal job titles -- Director of Player Personnel, College Scouting Director, Director of Pro Personnel -- because there's typically a lot of crossover between college/pro/advance scouting. Along with leveraging each guy's strengths to the betterment of the team, part of a good GM's job is to prepare these guys to be GMs themselves.
I realize it is very early and setting Easterby to the side what is your opinion if you have formed one on the
Management pyramid of Texans now?
 

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
The strength of schedule is a fixed number.
That's not how you gauge strength of schedule. Last year's teams are not equal to this year's. Carson Wentz was an Eagle last year and is now a Colt, 2020 W/L has little relevance to 2021.

The best method for measuring strength of schedule is by using Las Vegas's projected Win/Loss totals for each team, a forward looking metric by the best in the projection business. Here is the current 2021 Strength of Schedule as calculated by Sharp Football:
1622605966264.png
Warren has adjusted ours down a notch, now the 2nd most difficult (31st easiest) schedule in the league.
 

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
I realize it is very early and setting Easterby to the side what is your opinion if you have formed one on the
Management pyramid of Texans now?
I believe that for the first time, we have a GM that will listen and follow the advice of his scouting department. Cal McNair is the factor that we will all need to hope becomes a nonfactor........or at least lesser factor in player personnel decisions. Caserio is a no nonsense type of person who listens and carefully weighs things out before acting, not depending on religious/faith bonding with the owner to attain his goals.
 

Lucky

Not like this. Not like this.
Staff member
This is from an ESPN article ranking the rosters of all 32 NFL teams per PFF data. Tampa Bay is ranked #1. I think you know who comes in #32.

On my phone, so will provide link later.

32. Houston Texans

Biggest strength: There are valid arguments to be made that Houston gave up too much to bring in left tackle Laremy Tunsil, considering the trade compensation and financial compensation that the move ultimately cost them. However, it's hard to argue with his on-field performance. Tunsil has been excellent in pass protection for the Texans over the past two seasons. He has graded out in the 94th percentile of all offensive tackles in pass-blocking grade since 2019 on an offense that did him few favors schematically.

Biggest weakness: Houston's defensive line ranked dead last in PFF overall grade as a unit (47.0) in 2020. And that was despite J.J. Watt earning an 85.4 overall grade on more than 1,000 defensive snaps. It's hard to have much optimism surrounding this group with Shaq Lawson stepping in for Watt. The Texans will need younger players, such as Charles Omenihu and Ross Blacklock, to take big steps forward if their defensive line is to be anything other than the NFL's worst such unit again this season.

X factor for 2021: Quarterback Tyrod Taylor's career arc has been fascinating. He went from being a relatively successful three-year starter in Buffalo -- he earned three consecutive grades of 75.0 or higher and led the Bills to their first playoff appearance in nearly two decades -- to fluctuating roles between bridge starter and backup option. We're projecting Taylor to be the short-term solution for the Texans -- Deshaun Watson is facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior -- and rookie draft pick Davis Mills will have to acclimate to life in the NFL. There's always the chance that Taylor gets back to providing quality play as a starter with this potential new opportunity in Houston.

2021 Texans
OFFENSE DEFENSE
QB Tyrod Taylor (77.7*) DI Charles Omenihu (52.1)
RB David Johnson (62.8) DI Ross Blacklock (30.2)
RB Mark Ingram II (78.7*) ED Shaq Lawson (70.9)
WR Brandin Cooks (81.1) ED Whitney Mercilus (39.5)
WR Randall Cobb (71.6) LB Zach Cunningham (60.9)
WR Nico Collins (70.9***) LB Christian Kirksey (48.2)
TE Jordan Akins (71.8) LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (67.7)
LT Laremy Tunsil (75.4) CB Bradley Roby (71.5)
LG Max Scharping (52.1) CB Terrance Mitchell (68.2)
C Justin Britt (62.0*) CB Desmond King II (67.0)
RG Marcus Cannon (70.1*) S Justin Reid (60.7)
RT Tytus Howard (62.1) S Lonnie Johnson Jr. (65.5)
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I saw a source recently stating that running back David Johnson could be the texans MVP this season. If so that means I give kudos to casario for keeping Johnson and not trading him as I suggested.
 


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