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[Pick 67] Davis Mills QB Stanford
- Thread starter AcresHomesTexan
- Start date
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
I just think there’s a lot of hype going into a 3rd round QB when history shows the probability of hitting a HR there is very low.
I’m seeing a ton of intangibles being thrown around, arm strength, footwork, plays in a pro style offense, his 40 time and other measurables, so on and so forth, the same kind of intangibles we hear about every QB prospect that ever enters this league. And even the professionals get it wrong a majority of the time.
I’ve pointed out already that Foles, Brissett, Schaub and Wilson are the only 3rd round QBs since 2002 that have amounted to anything in this league. That’s it.
But Pep Hamilton is his QB coach and look what Pep did with Herbert last year. Yeah, well Pep was QB coach for a lot a QBs who had horrible seasons too.
That said, there will be a next 3rd rounder to make it at some point. If that’s Mills then yippee ki yay and nice job Nick getting it done in your 1st draft. But how long before we know that? Unless Mills does to Taylor in camp what Wilson did to Matt Flynn, I don’t see him getting on the field anytime soon, unless there’s an injury.
So I’m going to keep the expectations and enthusiasm levels a bit lower than some I see around here, because of what I’ve seen in the past, and because of what little faith I have left in this organization. They are most definitely in prove it first mode for me.
Jack Burton
Veteran
So your butthurt, you’ve come to terms with the fact that you are and your asking me why?
Jeez, dude.
It’s just a 3rd round draft pick, man.
Get ahold of yourself.
Jack Burton
Veteran
Caserio, Pep and Culley spent the time on and drafted Mills so I’m sure they have a plan.
My expectations are more on next year and this pick signaling the end of Watson obviously and what he will net in picks going forward.
Mills needed to happen for that reason alone.
I don't disagree with you. If looking at averages, Mills probably won't be a long term starter. I get that as an NFL fan.
As a Texans fan, however, we just don't have much to look forward to these days. So, that said, I'm choosing to sip on the Koolaid from my red plastic cup and just enjoying the process of Caserio trying to build this team (seeing that he's our GM for the foreseeable future), and hoping they can do something positive with this QB prospect.
Beyond that, there's just not much reason to watch, or even pay attention to, this team in 2021. I'm not predicting anything for Caserio and/or Mills, but rather hoping for the best and choosing to enjoy the somewhat bumpy ride.
This is where I'm at.
With that said, I like the gutsy move of picking a high upside guy like Mills. If Caserio hits he's ahead of the game. You certainly cant say Caserio is a risk averse GM. That in itself is a change in the Texans org.
Texansballer74
The Marine
I’m with you on this, i rather look at the bright side of things ( sipping kool aid ) or try to find some hope from somewhere. Last season and this off season has been by far the worst. That’s why I post positive things on here.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
That runs contra to my experience and virtually all analysts opinions. This was a down right pitfull
defensive draft.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
You are correct sir except secondary, specifically CB. Some real fine talent deep. DT, DE, ILB, OLB not so much other than the top tier guys. This was a very offensive draft.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
NFL draft all-underrated team: Texans find Deshaun Watson's replacement in Davis Mills
Pete Thamel
Welcome to the second edition of the Yahoo Sports all-underrated NFL draft team. This is an exercise in analyzing the imprecise collision of NFL front-office opinions and a player’s collegiate production. We attempted to identify draft steals – and two players who went undrafted – through the prism of the college football coaches who played, studied and game-planned against them.
Yahoo Sports reached out to approximately 100 college coaches and assistants from all 10 of the FBS conferences. We asked them to give a name or two they couldn’t believe dipped in the draft considering how that player performed against them during his career. What we didn't want is the coaches to get bogged down in testing times, injury history or the very real factors the NFL teams take into account. Just what they saw across the sideline. The only rule is that we asked coaches not to pick one of their own players. We tried to divide up the asks between offensive and defensive coaches to get a variety of positions and perspectives.
We’d love to tell you there’s some intricate formula here or comprehensive analytical equation. But what we really wanted was a bar conversation — “Man, I can’t believe that guy went in the fourth round.” And then queried what they liked specifically about the player. Here’s our team, with comments from the coaches who voted for them. (Some comments merge more than one coach's opinion.)
OFFENSE
QB Davis Mills (Stanford), Houston Texans, third round – “I think he’s a steal. His game fits the NFL really well. With the offense they run, he really gets through his progressions. He’s decisive and has above-average ability to anticipate and hit windows. His game can translate quickly to a pocket passer.”
Pete Thamel
Welcome to the second edition of the Yahoo Sports all-underrated NFL draft team. This is an exercise in analyzing the imprecise collision of NFL front-office opinions and a player’s collegiate production. We attempted to identify draft steals – and two players who went undrafted – through the prism of the college football coaches who played, studied and game-planned against them.
Yahoo Sports reached out to approximately 100 college coaches and assistants from all 10 of the FBS conferences. We asked them to give a name or two they couldn’t believe dipped in the draft considering how that player performed against them during his career. What we didn't want is the coaches to get bogged down in testing times, injury history or the very real factors the NFL teams take into account. Just what they saw across the sideline. The only rule is that we asked coaches not to pick one of their own players. We tried to divide up the asks between offensive and defensive coaches to get a variety of positions and perspectives.
We’d love to tell you there’s some intricate formula here or comprehensive analytical equation. But what we really wanted was a bar conversation — “Man, I can’t believe that guy went in the fourth round.” And then queried what they liked specifically about the player. Here’s our team, with comments from the coaches who voted for them. (Some comments merge more than one coach's opinion.)
OFFENSE
QB Davis Mills (Stanford), Houston Texans, third round – “I think he’s a steal. His game fits the NFL really well. With the offense they run, he really gets through his progressions. He’s decisive and has above-average ability to anticipate and hit windows. His game can translate quickly to a pocket passer.”
I agree. Tim Kelly is just decoration.
How do you think the AFC South defenses will stack up in 2021? I think Indy will still be a top 10 defense. Houston, Jville, & Tennessee I believe will be below 20.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
To appease Watson. That was just before all hell broke loose.
I look at a guy like Russell Wilson who did everything you’d like to see from a first round pick, just didn’t have the physical traits you’d like to see.
That’s a good 3rd round pick.
but a guy like Mills... lacking experience. Mediocre competition. Nothing extraordinary. Looks like a fourth round Tom Savage, Dak Prescott 4th roundish kinda pick to me.
But hey... last year we took Jonathan Greenard in the third so.... meh.
Tyrod Taylor & trading for Ryan Finley told me all I needed to know.
Texansballer74
The Marine
If he’s like Dak Prescott, I will take that all day everyday.
Fourth round picks. The scale is Tom Savage to Dak Prescott.
I really did think Savage just needed an opportunity. Boy was I wrong on that one. Kid did not have the fortitude.
Jack Burton
Veteran
Locker room, roster turnover.
Jimmy Johnson did it when he got to DAL.
Bill did it when he got to NE.
The entire roster including QB was turned over, and QBs were brought in or drafted regardless of situation. Caserio is just doing exactly that. Oddly, the “Belichick Jr” tag is kinda correct with this guy.
So how much is rice in China?
the point is, bringing in Tyrod Taylor & trading for Ryan Finley signaled the Texans we’re moving on.
I’m just not seeing this
Jack Burton
Veteran
Moving on from who?
And what are you not seeing? those 2 responses are confusing.
Your not seeing HOU moving on from Watson or they won’t net picks for him?
Turnover happens when a new regime comes in. Both in the FO and players. For the Texans org it's about time. The trash will be taken out after this season.
True
If your not seeing this then you're ignoring things or blind. (I dont mean this in a bad way)
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
It wasn’t fortitude Savage was missing. It was a stronger skull to handle the sacks from that horrible OL.
Moving on from Watson. Signing Tyrod Taylor & trading for Ryan Finley told me they’re prepared to play without Watson.
Drafting Mills didn’t need to be done for me to understand this.
Jack Burton
Veteran
Those are stop gaps.
Tyrod lasted 1 game last year and he jacked up his chest.
He was signed literally the week that crap broke with Watson as a one year rental. Nobody knew where it was going.
I think Mills did indeed put the final nail in the Watson coffin.
Who cares either way. Watson is gone and the team is moving in the right direction.
The NFL coaches say otherwise, based on the number of guys they drafted..
The Titans D underperformed last year, IMO.
They did hold the Ravens to 20 points in the playoffs though.
Beasley and Clowney hurt them as much as anything else.
I think they had added enough pass rushes to help out the inexperienced back end this year.
There's a chance they get to the mediocre range.
Too difficult to try to predict the Jaguars with all the changes; I won't try.
Where's the risk in drafting a game manager?
We got one of the best game managers in Schaub and a pretty good Oline back then, but that didn't even take us to the championship game.
That's what I'm talking about.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
I'm confused, are you talking about number of D players they drafted overall or where they were drafted? Because if its the number then yeah teams drafted defense guys like they do every year, doesn't mean it was a good draft for defenses. They draft QBs every year to even if everyone agrees the QB class of a year is horrible, same with every other position.
If we are talking about WHERE they were drafted then thats a different and more interesting conversation.
I'll save you some reading time and break down who they picked. Of the 6 people that contributed to the article it broke down to:
Micah Parsons - 3 votes (Drafted 12th overall)
Patrick Surtain II - 2 votes (Drafted 9th overall)
Jevon Holland - 1 vote (Drafted 36th overall)
As a side note nobody voted for the defense player drafted highest over all which was Jaycee Horn at 8th overall. So only two defense players drafted in the top 10, and only 11 defense players drafted in the 1st round and of those 11, 5 were taken by the last 5 teams of the 1st round and even of those 5 Ravens had two picks in the first round and a defense player was their second pick, they went WR with their first one. I mean hell this drafted saw a TE taken 3rd overall which was an NFL record.
So yes there were defense players drafted but I don't think the idea that it was in any way a good draft for defense stands up to evidence. When you factor in Texans weren't drafting till the 3rd round yeah I can very much see why they skipped on defense this year.
banned1976
sleeper mode
The man made 70 transactions before the draft. I don't have time to break them all down so I'll just highlight two; he kept David Johnson for gtd money this year worth 4.25 million (and a nearly 5 million cap hit) who, yes, had a decent run at the end of last season but he was wildly inconsistent. And to anyone watching with any objectivity looked like he was running in mud all year. That to me is a head-scratcher. A move I liked at the time, and one I really like now is the signing of Tyrod Taylor. He was brought in as an insurance policy. Taylor covered the Texans in all scenarios.
One of the more broader statements I'll make, when I look at all the veterans brought in this offseason, many of them are bargain bin replacements that have injury history concerns. If 3 or 4 of those guys stay healthy and excel, Caserio will have won that gamble.
TexansThunder
Waterboy
Isn’t one of the responsibilities of an Assistant Head Coach to help formulate game strategies?
I believe my outlook on the newly assembled Texans coaching staff is more positive that others on this board. Coach Culley is highly regarded in the NFL.
I’m not buying into the apocalyptic nature of the criticism of the Texans season. With this coaching staff, the team will be better prepared to play.
DJ was guaranteed 2.5 for this season so Caserio really only paid DJ 2 mil. That's a reasonable price IMHO.
Having 3 good rb's DJ won't be expected to carry the load like he was last year. He should be fresher and more productive.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Good Schaub had the Frank Bush/Richard Smith defenses holding the team back. He led the league in passing yards I believe in 08 or 09 and Texans didn’t make it to playoffs because of terrible defense.
Then in 2011 the team finally had Wade at DC, rookie Watt, all pro Cushing, Jo Jo and Danieal Manning, even Mario for 5 games... but Schaub got hurt. And Yates held on to what good Schaub with a good D had started to steer the team to divisional round of playoffs.
What might have been...
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
I am reliving my hate for QB sneaks and Albert Haynesworth.
That's a good way to look at it. Simply put, this coaching staff is collectively better than King Bill, even thought the initial results might differ since they do not have the benefit of inheriting a roster full of talent that Kubiak & Co. assembled.
Just compare the roster that O'Brien inherited to this one. It's clear that Bill was never a good talent evaluator in spite of always being the smartest man in the room.
CMND mentioned two things: quality and depth.
It should be obvious which part I want to point out when I specifically talked about the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Clearly it was not, its not even clear in this post. The 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds could be either quality or depth depending on who and what you are drafting. For example you can find an all pro RB in the 3rd or 4th rounds.
2012 Schaub was healthy.
The D ranked in the top 10 points allowed.
They were no. 3 in forcing TOs.
JJ was a monster with 20.5 sacks, 22 TFL, 76 QB disruptions, 15 PB.
A one-man wrecking crew that affected nearly 18% of the plays, an astounding number.
A runaway selection as Defensive Player of the Year.
2012 PFF Defensive Player of the Year
With the playoffs around the corner, Ben Stockwell examines the Defensive Player of the Year nominees and gives the PFF winner plaudits.
www.pff.com
2012 PFF All-Pro Team
In a season full of great performances the PFF staff gives you its unbiased All Pro selections for 2012.
www.pff.com
AJ and Duane Brown also made that All-Pros Team.
The Oline ranked 8th in Pass Pro.
Ranking the 2012 Offensive Lines
Khaled Elsayed presents an annual highlight of the PFF year - an unbiased rank of every NFL offensive line. Last year the Saints took our top spot, but which line performed best in 2012?
www.pff.com
The running game was great with Foster, Tate, and Forsett.
AJ in his prime.
KW had one of his best years.
The Texans had OD, Graham and Casey, each contributed in a different way.
One in a blue moon, the Texans were ranked no. 1 by somebody after week 4
2012 Week 5 Power Rankings, Cardinals Falling?
Despite their perfect record the Cardinals showed that they have issues which keep them from being ranked as a top three team.
www.revengeofthebirds.com
Their first loss was in week 6 to GB, when Schaub threw 2 Ints.
That was the first clue the team doesn't have a QB good enough to hang with the big boys.
I'm sorry; next time I will spell out everything for you in every single post, and repeating ít in each and every post I make...
So you're guaranteeing better than 3 consecutive AFC South Championships?
Bring me that Koolaid right this minute please.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
I'm sorry; next time I will spell out everything for you in every single post, and repeating ít in each and every post I make...
Now you see I am trying to have a civil conversation and address the points you raised and yet all you do is come back with snark. Yet when people do that to you then you hop right up on that high horse and tell them to address the points you raised. You may have thought what you said was clear, and I'm sure to you it was, but if it doesn't properly get your point across then its not worth the time to type it. Either way I'm done with this conversation as it to is not worth the time to type it.
At least, you need to follow the conversation.
Read post 310, 321, 323, 326, 358, 375,
2012 was the year the defense started believing its own hype and made those letterman jackets. NE kicked their butts for that one. Twice.
Schaub was never the same after Nov. 13, 2011 and his pedal lisfranc fracture. CnD posted extensively about his injury and how it would affect him, and he was right with his analysis on all counts.
Fortunately the team had Arian Foster at his peak, who rushed for 1,424 yards, but they still couldn't get past the Patriots (who, if we're honest, did that to a lot of teams in the past two decades).
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Pats was also when Brady was at his prime as was Gronk. Texans were playing pretty good but not on the level of the championship teams at that time. We had Foster as a franchise guy but those teams had multiple franchise guys.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
2012 Schaub was healthy.
The D ranked in the top 10 points allowed.
They were no. 3 in forcing TOs.
JJ was a monster with 20.5 sacks, 22 TFL, 76 QB disruptions, 15 PB.
A one-man wrecking crew that affected nearly 18% of the plays, an astounding number.
A runaway selection as Defensive Player of the Year.
2012 PFF Defensive Player of the Year
With the playoffs around the corner, Ben Stockwell examines the Defensive Player of the Year nominees and gives the PFF winner plaudits.
2012 PFF All-Pro Team
In a season full of great performances the PFF staff gives you its unbiased All Pro selections for 2012.
AJ and Duane Brown also made that All-Pros Team.
The Oline ranked 8th in Pass Pro.
Ranking the 2012 Offensive Lines
Khaled Elsayed presents an annual highlight of the PFF year - an unbiased rank of every NFL offensive line. Last year the Saints took our top spot, but which line performed best in 2012?
The running game was great with Foster, Tate, and Forsett.
AJ in his prime.
KW had one of his best years.
The Texans had OD, Graham and Casey, each contributed in a different way.
One in a blue moon, the Texans were ranked no. 1 by somebody after week 4
2012 Week 5 Power Rankings, Cardinals Falling?
Despite their perfect record the Cardinals showed that they have issues which keep them from being ranked as a top three team.
Their first loss was in week 6 to GB, when Schaub threw 2 Ints.
That was the first clue the team doesn't have a QB good enough to hang with the big boys.
2012 Schaub was post injury and his performance was beginning to deteriorate before falling off a cliff in 2013.
On defense, no DeMeco Ryans after 2011 and Brian Cushing tore his ACL 5 games in... the game before the GB game you referenced where the Texans faceplanted on national tv. The defense was missing all pro Cushing and their performance showed compared to 2011.
Tate had less than 300 yards being limited by injury in 2012... a far cry from the 942 he accumulated fully healthy with arguably the league's best OL in 2011 before the team got rid of starting RT Eric Winston and RG Mike Brisiel for 2012. Foster's efficiency also eroded with worse OL play and without relying on Tate to carry the workload. We all have been here long enough to remember that the 2011 Texans with good Schaub pre injury was championship caliber and much better than the 2012 team with the weaknesses i've mentioned (even with JJ playing MVP level football).
But most teams without Tom Brady have a championship window that might last a year if they're lucky. And we all know how lucky Houston sports teams tend to be...
EDIT: I did forget 2011 was also the year AJ's hamstrings kept failing him which limited him to 7 gimpy games. Gosh the Texans are unlucky!
frethack
Rookie
As good as the 2011 team was, depth was thin at a LOT of positions. Foster and AJ discussed it in a podcast when talking about AJ requesting a trade. This team has never been able to build depth...for whatever reason. And the last coach completely torched our starter quality. So maddening.
Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
Now this is the steelBtexan I like to see.
I mean that is some serious mental gymnastics to see a bright side to restructuring Dj’s contract & optimistic expectations.
It is time to get down with the git down. The bandwagon(& I mean that in a good way) is picking up. Get on board or gtfo
Foster had an absurd 391 touches and 17 TDs.
2012 Houston Texans Rosters, Stats, Schedule, Team Draftees, Injury Reports | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Check out the 2012 Houston Texans Roster, Stats, Schedule, Team Draftees, Injury Reports and more on Pro-Football-Reference.com.
www.pro-football-reference.com
Doesn't matter who were on the Oline; the fact remains that they were ranked 8th in protection.
Similarly, on defense, the team still ranked 7th in yard allowed and 9th in points allowed.
I was rewatching the playoff game against the Pats.
The Texans were trailing 13-17 at the half before Schaub's meltdown to start the second half.
The Pats had the ball first and scored to make it 13-24.
It seems to press Schaub to produce and he didn't respond well to such adversity.
On 3rd and 5, Schaub did well to evade pressure, only to throw the ball to nobody as the defender was already falling down.
...
The D hold, but on the next drive, Schaub just made a bad throw on 3rd and 7 (too low such that the LB was able to jump up and snatch the ball for the Int.)
That's what a middle tier QB gets you.
A mistake when he can't ill-afford it.
And let's not forget how Schaub missed a wide open AJ in the back of the end zone (by a mile) even though he was staring at the receiver the whole time.
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I don't buy the lack of depth.
Look at the snap counts and who were on the team.
Divisional Round - Houston Texans at New England Patriots - January 13th, 2013 | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Houston Texans 28 at New England Patriots 41 on January 13th, 2013 - Full team and player stats and box score
www.pro-football-reference.com
Several of the depth guys were able to find another team after they left the Texans.