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[Pick 67] Davis Mills QB Stanford

beerlover said:
Herbert was only a three star recruit, dual threat QB coming out of Sheldon High School class of 2016. Mills was a five star recruit out of Norcross Georgia ranked #1 QB in the nation 2017. Per Rivals.

Davis Mills suffered from early injuries that impacted his career @ Stanford greatly. But since has fully recovered and athletically stronger than ever. Now does he get me as excited as watching Herbert, no. To me he lacks arm strength, size and has been mentioned, because of injuries, experience against top flight competition. But I do think he can command the huddle and be excellent system QB, like a Ryan Fitzpatrick. If he develops as planned has starter potential, and plus back-up if they take a #1 next year. You need at least two quality QB’s on your roster, even if you have one that’s a superstar. There will always be a market and trade value for one in the NFL.
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I do worry about his arm strength, although it looks to be adequate, it's nothing like Herbert's It's somewhere between Herbert and Schaub.

Mills is listed at 6'4 225 lbs. That's prototypical NFL QB size.
 
beerlover said:
Would really like to know Pep’s influence to selection of Mills, being a close friend of David Shaw and calling about Mills to ask questions for past three years (source interview with Shaw on 610). Also like to know how or to what extent he shaped and molded Herbert last year?
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Good stuff
 
Jack Burton said:
Tankathon already got the 2022 projections up...

www.tankathon.com

2024 NFL Mock Draft | Tankathon

2024 NFL Mock Draft. Order updated after every game. Team needs are factored into the player selections.
www.tankathon.com www.tankathon.com
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If we have the first I hope we trade it for more picks.

To add to the picks we get for Watson.

We could get have 4 first round picks and and extra 2nd or 3rd potentially by making those trades.
 
maverick512000 said:
I also wonder if Caserio didn't go more heavy offense to possibly use it to recruit an OC next year. Lets be honest unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat without Watson Kelly's days as OC are numbered so this way they can say to a candidate OC "Look we've drafted some solid players with lots of upsides and we just need someone that utilize the tools they've been given. We got great coaches at both QB and Oline and our HC is very much a hands off, oversee the big picture type of guy so you'll be able to design the type of offense you think will fit best with the team."

If they have some early picks next year due to either record or Watson trade then thats more for even better bait.
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This y ear's defensive draft candidates qualitiy had to be the worst in ages...............while the depth was nonexistent. Caserio, focusing on the offense was the only valid approach he could take.
 
steelbtexan said:
I do worry about his arm strength, although it looks to be adequate, it's nothing like Herbert's It's somewhere between Herbert and Schaub.

Mills is listed at 6'4 225 lbs. That's prototypical NFL QB size.
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I've never watched a mills game and only highlights so I take it with a grain of salt...

I see sufficient to better then average arm strength. His throws have zip and don't look short or late. He has a nice quick release. His mechanics look sound when he has time. Any hint of pressure and his footwork goes to sh*t immediately. Highlights show a lot of accurate passes though even when he's pressured.

He demonstrates an understanding of the offense and you can see him working through reads. He's more mobile then I anticipated. Not statuesque.

Most throws look contested. Not sure if his wrs don't get separation and he finds a way to make it work. Not scared of small windows and may suffer consequences when facing superior talent in the nfl. Might be to confident in his arm and offer up a lot of interceptions in his 1st year or 2.

Solid talent with the tools to be good and worthy of his 3rd round selection (or better.) Will need grooming to reach his potential. Will perform best with a legitimate ol and weapons (like all qbs.)

A good flyer based on video even if he never succedes.
 
banned1976 said:
The floor on this guy is Tom Savage and the ceiling is Andrew Luck?

My prediction is, Mills will receive a little playing time this season but not play well enough to woo anyone and the Texans draft a quarterback first overall in 2022. In that scenario the Texans just drafted competition at the quarterback position for the 2022 season. Not the worst use of your highest pick in the draft this year, but not the best, either. There were probably 6-10 players along the DL and in the secondary drafted after the 67th pick that will likely receive significant playing time with their teams in 2021 and become solid starters in the very near future. They may never be pro-bowlers but not all players on winning football teams are.

The real question I have in regards to Caserio is, can he accept failure or will he behave like the previous regimes and keep trotting his mistakes out onto the field? Rick Smith and O'Brien both kept players around too long out of loyalty and/or believing their initial instincts were right. So far, I'm giving Caserio the benefit of the doubt. I'm hoping that if I am right, and Davis Mills doesn't progress quickly, the Texans draft the best quarterback available to them if they are indeed picking in the top 3 next season.
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Funny, NC has already given every indication that he will replace a player in a heartbeat. OB’s problem was being coach and GM. If he liked somebody the GM wasn’t going to replace him. NC won’t let anyone get comfortable.
 
Dejaview said:
Funny, NC has already given every indication that he will replace a player in a heartbeat. OB’s problem was being coach and GM. If he liked somebody the GM wasn’t going to replace him. NC won’t let anyone get comfortable.
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I hope you're right but based on what evidence have you that Caserio won't let anyone get comfortable? That he jettisoned some players out of Houston he had no hand in bringing into the league?

I believe you're getting in way ahead of your skis on Caserio. Not even cautiously optimistic.

I want to see what he does with players he brings along that aren't panning out. He's made some good moves since he's been here and some real head-scratchers, but I think how he moves on from the players he specifically endorses that aren't cutting it will be a pretty fair indicator of whether he's the same old same old we've seen here or whether he's the breath of fresh air this organization needs.

Watching how the 67th overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft progresses in his NFL career is going to be very interesting around these parts.
 
maverick512000 said:
I've said it before and the message doesn't seem to get through but Ravens and their fans DON'T WANT A PASS HEAVY OFFENSE. Passing for the Ravens means Jackson isn't running and if Jackson isn't running then Ravens aren't winning. The offense is perfectly designed for the team and honestly I don't know or care if Culley really learned to "build an offense" you can hire a OC to do that I just mainly hope he learned from Harbaugh not to be rigid in his thinking and not to default to a comfort zone. That was OB's true problem and the thing that stopped him from success with this team is that he kept trying to make players fit his scheme rather than allowing the scheme to fit the players.
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Last statement you posted is spot on!

Coach Harbaugh is a great coach


Even he and players have acknowledged the Ravens need a more balanced offense. Ravens were “middle of the pack in passing efficiency”.

Ravens were no 1 in rushing and 32nd in passing.
 
powda said:
I've never watched a mills game and only highlights so I take it with a grain of salt...

I see sufficient to better then average arm strength. His throws have zip and don't look short or late. He has a nice quick release. His mechanics look sound when he has time. Any hint of pressure and his footwork goes to sh*t immediately. Highlights show a lot of accurate passes though even when he's pressured.

He demonstrates an understanding of the offense and you can see him working through reads. He's more mobile then I anticipated. Not statuesque.

Most throws look contested. Not sure if his wrs don't get separation and he finds a way to make it work. Not scared of small windows and may suffer consequences when facing superior talent in the nfl. Might be to confident in his arm and offer up a lot of interceptions in his 1st year or 2.

Solid talent with the tools to be good and worthy of his 3rd round selection (or better.) Will need grooming to reach his potential. Will perform best with a legitimate ol and weapons (like all qbs.)

A good flyer based on video even if he never succedes.
Click to expand...

After TB gave me the link to the 790 interview I'm much more high on Mills than before. (Thanks TB) He can throw a ball 74 yds with a flick of the wrist according to Shaw. He comes from a pro offense and is used to making checks at the LOS. Also Shaw's system and Pep's system are basically the same, so the transition should be a smooth one.

For those that said the Texans hadn't even done their homework on Mills, like I thought, Shaw and Hamilton have talked about Mills on and off for the last 4 yrs. Mills is a Pep pick and odds are that things are going to workout well. Smart/talent/work ethic is how Shaw described Mills, those type of people tend to succeed in the NFL and life in general.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
This y ear's defensive draft candidates qualitiy had to be the worst in ages...............while the depth was nonexistent. Caserio, focusing on the offense was the only valid approach he could take.
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Not necessarily true.
There were more defensive picks in rounds 3, 4, and especially 5.
 
thunderkyss said:
But how much air does he have to put under it to go 70+

I agree, most of us couldn’t throw 70 yards downfield without a running start. But them boys that play on Sunday can with a lot less effort.
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Coach said he can throw the football deep with a flick of the wrist. He also said he won the throwing competition I believe as a High schooler ( I guess in their camp). But I have seen pro quarterbacks take a little running start to heave it that far before.
In the Marine Corp my first sergeant could throw it deep with the flick of the wrist.
 
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Word out now is the Pats would have taken him in the 2nd if Mac Jones had been drafted by the Saints.

The more I think about it, the more I like this pick. It's a gamble, but one that could pay huge dividends if successful. Given the Texans are assumed to have a lot of draft capital in the next two years, give Mills a couple of seasons to develop, and if he's not working out, use one of the 1st round picks in 2023 for a QB.

I'm of the attitude of taking a QB in ever draft until you find one. I don't buy having to build a team first before getting a rookie QB. Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman come to mind as rookie QBs that paid their dues and had teams built around them. Maybe Caserio hits a home run with Mills. If it ends up being a swing and a miss, who can fault him? It's only a 3rd round pick in the Texans worst positioned draft in franchise history.
 
steelbtexan said:
If Mills hits he will be a true game changer.

Who else was going to have the ability to be a game changer even after developing after being taken in the 3rd rd? Not directed to you TB.
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Mills is a good college QB, but a game manager by NFL standard.
 
powda said:
I've never watched a mills game and only highlights so I take it with a grain of salt...

I see sufficient to better then average arm strength. His throws have zip and don't look short or late. He has a nice quick release. His mechanics look sound when he has time. Any hint of pressure and his footwork goes to sh*t immediately. Highlights show a lot of accurate passes though even when he's pressured.

He demonstrates an understanding of the offense and you can see him working through reads. He's more mobile then I anticipated. Not statuesque.

Most throws look contested. Not sure if his wrs don't get separation and he finds a way to make it work. Not scared of small windows and may suffer consequences when facing superior talent in the nfl. Might be to confident in his arm and offer up a lot of interceptions in his 1st year or 2.

Solid talent with the tools to be good and worthy of his 3rd round selection (or better.) Will need grooming to reach his potential. Will perform best with a legitimate ol and weapons (like all qbs.)

A good flyer based on video even if he never succedes.
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For me, the number one thing I look at when evaluating QBs is how they perform under pressure.

beargoggleson.com

Comparing second tier 2021 NFL Draft QBs under pressure

Comparing second tier 2021 NFL Draft QBs under pressure. The Chicago Bears will be in the running for the two quarterbacks
beargoggleson.com beargoggleson.com

Mills doesn't pass that test; and it only gets harder at the NFL level.
 
Texansballer74 said:
Only time will tell.
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At the moment, we can only go off the games he played at Stanford, and that's what it shows.

Also, I had read a number of analysis where it shows that Mills didn't face much pressure.
(Not surprising with the defenses he played against, which were below average to poor.)
 
Texansballer74 said:
Only time will tell.
Click to expand...

I would rather trust Shaw/Pep's opinions (You know guys who have been coaching offenses/QB's for 30 yrs or more) over couch potato analysis of a couple of posters. Does Mills have things to work on? Yes, the same things that guys like Lawrence/Fields/Wilson/Jones have to work on. I can make a case that since those guys played with much more talent in college than Mills did their transition will be more difficult. Only thing Mills is missing is experience.
 
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76Texan said:
At the moment, we can only go off the games he played at Stanford, and that's what it shows.

Also, I had read a number of analysis where it shows that Mills didn't face much pressure.
(Not surprising with the defenses he played against, which were below average to poor.)
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Man I’ve watched a lot of football and heard a lot of things. I’ve seen quarterbacks who thrived in college, played against stout competition and ended being a bust in the NFL. I’ve seen players come from small schools and ended up becoming Hall of famers. I remember the buzz that went around when Peyton Manning entered the draft. And what did he do in his first four years as a pro? That’s right stunk it up. Big hats off to the Colts for stinking with their guy. It paid off in the long run. Sometimes it’s best to let things play out right. I remember when we drafted Tom Savage. Heart of a Lion, tough guy who had a good arm. Problem was he couldn’t read a defense. Switch it to Mills, he’s getting positive inputs as well as negative inputs. Let’s see what he does at this level first. Then we can talk about if he’s ready or not. His college coach disagrees with you on this one 76.
 
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Texansballer74 said:
Man I’ve watched a lot of football and heard a lot of things. I’ve seen quarterbacks who thrived in college, played against stout competition and ended being a bust in the NFL. I’ve seen players come from small schools and ended up becoming Hall of famers. I remember the buzz that went around when Peyton Manning entered the draft. And what did he do in his first four years as a pro? That’s right stunk it up. Big hats off to the Colts for stinking with their guy. It paid off in the long run. Sometimes it’s best to let things play out right. I remember when we drafted Tom Savage. Heart of a Lion, tough guy who had a good arm. Problem was he couldn’t read a defense. Switch it to Mills, he’s getting positive inputs as well as negative inputs. Let’s see what he does at this level first. Then we can talk about if he’s ready or not. His college coach disagrees with you on this one 76.
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Peyton Manning went 13-3 in his second year.

He made the Pro Bowl in his second and third year.
 
Given the Texans history, Mills will be Tom Savage the 2nd. LOL

In terms of potential though, I still say Mills was a good 3rd round pick.
 
76Texan said:
Peyton Manning went 13-3 in his second year.

He made the Pro Bowl in his second and third year.
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He also threw 15 interceptions during those years and the following year 23. The year after that 19. He was a turnover machine. And during those years he wasn’t big time in the playoffs.

Man the Probowl is nothing to write home about.
 
Thorn said:
Given the Texans history, Mills will be Tom Savage the 2nd. LOL

In terms of potential though, I still say Mills was a good 3rd round pick.
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The problem with a so so QB is your team would get stuck in mediocrity.
Even Matt Schaub at his best was deemed a liability comes playoff time.
 
Thorn said:
Given the Texans history, Mills will be Tom Savage the 2nd. LOL

In terms of potential though, I still say Mills was a good 3rd round pick.
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Well, word out today is Belichick was taking Mills in the 2nd, so I’ll defer to guys like he and Pep/Shaw on drafting QB’s.
 
Texansballer74 said:
He also threw 15 interceptions during those years and the following year 23. The year after that 19. He was a turnover machine. And during those years he wasn’t big time in the playoffs.

Man the Probowl is nothing to write home about.
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The game (the rules) were different back then.
It was the D that held the Colts back.
 
76Texan said:
The problem with a so so QB is your team would get stuck in mediocrity.
Even Matt Schaub at his best was deemed a liability comes playoff time.
Click to expand...

Mills is our future backup QB, so I'm not expecting to see him out there doing anything long term. I can't possibly see Mills doing anything this year that will keep us from drafting a new QB in the 1st round next year.
 
Jack Burton said:
Well, word out today is Belichick was taking Mills in the 2nd, so I’ll defer to guys like he and Pep/Shaw on drafting QB’s.
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You think Bellichick's draft record is great?
Tell me what happened to his third rounders?

www.nbcsports.com

Patriots draft history: These 11 quarterbacks were selected by Bill Belichick

The New England Patriots need a new starting quarterback after Tom Brady took his talents to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in free agency, and the search for his replacement could involve the 2020 NFL Draft. The Patriots have 12 picks in the 2020 draft — only the Miami Dolphins have more selections —...
www.nbcsports.com www.nbcsports.com
 
76Texan said:
You think Bellichick's draft record is great?
Tell me what happened to his third rounders?

www.nbcsports.com

Patriots draft history: These 11 quarterbacks were selected by Bill Belichick

The New England Patriots need a new starting quarterback after Tom Brady took his talents to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in free agency, and the search for his replacement could involve the 2020 NFL Draft. The Patriots have 12 picks in the 2020 draft — only the Miami Dolphins have more selections —...
www.nbcsports.com www.nbcsports.com
Click to expand...

Oh, I’m only posting these comments cause I really like watching you scramble around searching for links and making assorted butthurt comments about the pick.
 
Thorn said:
Mills is our future backup QB, so I'm not expecting to see him out there doing anything long term. I can't possibly see Mills doing anything this year that will keep us from drafting a new QB in the 1st round next year.
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The thing is, I don't think a rebuilding team can afford to spend a third rounder on a backup.
 
76Texan said:
The thing is, I don't think a rebuilding team can afford to spend a third rounder on a backup.
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I don't disagree, I would have gone with a defensive player in the 3rd round and picked from the QB leftovers later. So if that's what you're arguing about, then yeah we agree. But it doesn't take away from the fact that Mills was a good 3rd round pick even if you didn't need him. It doesn't make it any less of a value as to the pick itself.
 
Thorn said:
I don't disagree, I would have gone with a defensive player in the 3rd round and picked from the QB leftovers later. So if that's what you're arguing about, then yeah we agree. But it doesn't take away from the fact that Mills was a good 3rd round pick even if you didn't need him. It doesn't make it any less of a value as to the pick itself.
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Good point.
 
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