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David Johnson... welcome to houston

my gut instinct is to agree with you Luck, but i'd first need to figure out how PFR, this or any other outlet for that matter is plotting the plays, is there overlap and human error in charting behind the LOS passes as runs, or vice versa how many Deshaun scrambles goes into that format?
I don't know exactly, either. But if you assume all Deshaun runs on 1st down are scrambles intended to be passes (not true, but let's assume), then the numbers would look like this:

First down pass plays = Pass attempts + Sacks + Deshaun all 1st down runs
First down pass plays = 181 + 18 + 33 = 232 called pass plays

First down rush plays = Rushing attempts - Deshaun all 1st down runs
First down rush plays = 259 - 33 = 226 called rush plays

50.7% pass plays called on 1st down
49.3% run plays called on 1st down

I could track each Watson run, but it doesn't matter. The raw data indicates that sites info is off on that stat. That's why I hate looking at these sites that don't provide the raw data or the equations they are implementing.
 
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I don't know exactly, either. But if you assume all Deshaun runs on 1st down are scrambles intended to be passes (not true, but let's assume), then the numbers would look like this:

First down pass plays = Pass attempts + Sacks + Deshaun all 1st down runs
First down pass plays = 181 + 18 + 33 = 232 called pass plays

First down rush plays = Rushing attempts - Deshaun all 1st down runs
First down rush plays = 259 - 33 = 226 called rush plays

50.7% pass plays called on 1st down
49.3% run plays called on 1st down

I could track each Watson run, but it doesn't matter. The raw data indicates that sites info is off on that stat. That's why I hate looking at these sites that don't provide the raw data or the equations they are implementing.

Its mind numbing when you think that if OBrien is going hell or high water with his style of football, that he would choose to load up on gap running pass catchers. If he intends to batter down the defensive front with his inside zone stuff it just didnt make sense to go with DJ. Josh Jacobs could be a Texan and he would fit that style to a T. Adrian Peterson was there. I mean if its as simple as doing basic division to establish the biggest tell of your early down offense, then OBrien and every offensive coach has to know this as well right?
 
In 2019, the Texans passed the ball on 1st down 60.31%
In 2018, the Texans passed the ball on 1st down 60.91%
Good post Doc. I didn't pull up the stat line. But man it surely did seem like we did.
The stats on first down are probably pretty even, as noted in all the stats guys are posting. To me it feels like he starts every game with a run.
because he should get better with TO's/challenges with less on his plate.
one can hope. I've even said that I think he can become a better coach by "coaching" only. Let's see.
All teams run shallow crossing routes with their WR's. Remember AJ ran those quite often. Look for Cobb to run a bunch of those next yr.
Andre was a MAN! That cat was a damn LB'er in a #80's jersey. Just ask that Safety that he trucked in Arizona.
 
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The stats on first down are probably pretty even, as noted in all the stats guys are posting. To me it feels like he starts every game with a run.

one can hope. I've even said that I think he can become a better coach by "coaching" only. Let's see.

Andre was a MAN! That cat was a damn LB'er in a #80's jersey. Just ask that Safety that he trucked in Arizona.

Spot on

I was at that game in Arizona and the fans around me were in awe.

Although he was great before that play, that play put him on the national map.

He was a wr that played like a lb and run in the low 4.3's. While Nuk was great he can't hold a candle to AJ. IMHO
 
He was a wr that played like a lb and run in the low 4.3's. While Nuk was great he can't hold a candle to AJ. IMHO
As soft spoken/quiet as he was he spoke loudly on the field. I remember seeing him on the sideline (pre game warm up) and thought, DAMN, this man is huge. My son was a freshman in HS at the time. He looked at Andre and then looked at me and said, "why would any DB want to tackle him?!" I told him, "pretty sure they don't, son."
 
Video Rundown: A look at David Johnson's skill set and the fit with the Texans offense
2 hours ago

The Houston Texans traded for running back David Johnson from the Arizona Cardinals to add to their backfield. Finding how he fits into the Texans offense will be key in 2020 and here is a closer look at Johnson's skill set and how it could transition to the offense.
Johnson has spent five seasons in Arizona where he has appeared in 62 games rushing for 3,128 yards and rushing for 33 touchdowns. He is also a pass-catching threat that has caught 208 passes for 2,219 yards and 15 touchdowns.
It will be up to offensive coordinator Tim Kelly to match Johnson's skill set to the Texans' offense and prove head coach Bill O'Brien right in landing Johnson in the trade with the Cardinals.
Key Numbers for Johnson in 2019
  • 42% of the offensive snaps in 2019
  • 80% of the offensive snaps in 2018
  • Injured in 2017 (Wrist/Thumb)
  • 84% of the offensive snaps in 2016
Snaps by position in 2019
  • 349 snaps in the backfield
  • 67 snaps in the slot
  • 17 snaps out wide
  • 2 snaps inline
  • 1 snap at quarterback
2019 receiving stats: 36 receptions (43 targets) 83.7% completion, 370 yards, 4 touchdowns, 10.3 yards per reception, 7.9 yards per target.
2019 rushing stats:345 yards rushing, 170 yards after contact, 6 broken tackles, 2 rushing touchdowns, 3.7 yards per carry.
 
Didn’t David Johnson kinda look like Marshall Faulk in 2016?

He was really good. Catch/Run/Block all pro kind of good. If DH plays anything like 2916 and the WR corps stays healthy then that should be a championship level offense. No excuses at all if you get 2016 DJ.
 
The Johnson Twins 2019 Comparison

Rushing
Duke: 83 Rush, 410 Yrds, 4.9 Avg, 2 TDs
David: 94 Rush, 345 Yrds, 3.7 Avg, 2 TDs

Receiving
Duke: 44 Catches, 410 Yrds, 9.3 Avg, 3 TDs
David: 36 Catches, 370 Yrds, 10.3 Avg, 4 TDs

Both were backup level RBS last year.

Has DJ lost it or was he phased out? I don't know but we're gonna find out.
 
He was really good. Catch/Run/Block all pro kind of good. If DH plays anything like 2916 and the WR corps stays healthy then that should be a championship level offense. No excuses at all if you get 2016 DJ.

We gave up a third for Duke. If David is worth a 4th, would that plus 2.40 equal a first? Low 1st?
 
Didn’t David Johnson kinda look like Marshall Faulk in 2016?
I cringe at you putting one of the best RBs of all time and Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk in the same sentence as David Johnson. There have been COUNTLESS one-hit-wonders in the history of the NFL.... Faulk maintained that greatness for 10+ years. If we are talking David Johnson, the more relevant comparison is 2018 and 2019, where he averaged 3.7 yards per carry. 2016 is long gone.
 
He was really good. Catch/Run/Block all pro kind of good
I just realized Johnson was 25 during his 2nd season, when he made All Pro. No big deal, he was on a rookie deal. Now, Johnson is 29. That's up there for a RB. I don't care how much injuries and lack of use has reduced his touches. Johnson is still a 29 year old RB.

No RB in 2019 was in the top 10 in yards from scrimmage was over 25. Mark Ingram of the Ravens was the only RB in the top 15 (#15) over 25. Engram had 1265 total yards rushing/receiving. While I think Ingram is better than Johnson, he also benefited from playing with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore's zone read attack.

Still, I would allow that Ingram is David Johnson's 2020 ceiling. And if Johnson had been cut by Arizona (and he would have), no one would have made a stink if Billy Oh had given him a $5 million deal (which is what Ingram is playing on). The issue was, is, and will be including Johnson's $12 million guaranteed in the Hopkins deal. That was moronic. Especially in hindsight, when Denver got Melvin Gordon for 2 years, $16 million shortly after. It proves (once again) that Billy Oh is totally clueless regarding player value and the economics of the NFL. You know, the job of a NFL GM.

Let's stop pretending O'Brien has a plan. Everything he's done this offseason is a hodgepodge of deals that centered on getting rid of a star player he didn't like. Like the young prodigy told Neo in the Oracle's den, there is no spoon.

Ev5Ux.jpg
 
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I just realized Johnson was 25 during his 2nd season, when he made All Pro. No big deal, he was on a rookie deal. Now, Johnson is 29. That's up there for a RB. I don't care how much injuries and lack of use has reduced his touches. Johnson is still a 29 year old RB.

No RB in 2019 was in the top 10 in yards from scrimmage was over 25. Mark Engram of the Ravens was the only RB in the top 15 (#15) over 25. Engram had 1265 total yards rushing/receiving. While I think Engram is better than Johnson, he also benefited from playing with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore's zone read attack.

Still, I would allow that Engram is David Johnson's 2020 ceiling. And if Johnson had been cut by Arizona (and he would have), no one would have made a stink if Billy Oh had given him a $5 million deal (which is what Engram is playing on). The issue was, is, and will be including Johnson's $12 million guaranteed in the Hopkins deal. That was moronic. Especially in hindsight, when Denver got Melvin Gordon for 2 years, $16 million shortly after. It proves (once again) that Billy Oh is totally clueless regarding player value and the economics of the NFL. You know, the job of a NFL GM.

Let's stop pretending O'Brien has a plan. Everything he's done this offseason is a hodgepodge of deals that centered on getting rid of a star player he didn't like. Like the young prodigy told Neo in the Oracle's den, there is no spoon.

Ev5Ux.jpg

I don't expect much from DJ this season and hope I'm wrong. Good thing is if DJ doesn't produce then it won't hurt to cut him after this season. BOB is giving DW4 all of receiving options a QB could ask for.

Cooks/Cobb/DJ/WFV there will always be somebody open.
 
I just realized Johnson was 25 during his 2nd season, when he made All Pro. No big deal, he was on a rookie deal. Now, Johnson is 29. That's up there for a RB. I don't care how much injuries and lack of use has reduced his touches. Johnson is still a 29 year old RB.

No RB in 2019 was in the top 10 in yards from scrimmage was over 25. Mark Ingram of the Ravens was the only RB in the top 15 (#15) over 25. Engram had 1265 total yards rushing/receiving. While I think Ingram is better than Johnson, he also benefited from playing with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore's zone read attack.

Still, I would allow that Ingram is David Johnson's 2020 ceiling. And if Johnson had been cut by Arizona (and he would have), no one would have made a stink if Billy Oh had given him a $5 million deal (which is what Ingram is playing on). The issue was, is, and will be including Johnson's $12 million guaranteed in the Hopkins deal. That was moronic. Especially in hindsight, when Denver got Melvin Gordon for 2 years, $16 million shortly after. It proves (once again) that Billy Oh is totally clueless regarding player value and the economics of the NFL. You know, the job of a NFL GM.

Let's stop pretending O'Brien has a plan. Everything he's done this offseason is a hodgepodge of deals that centered on getting rid of a star player he didn't like. Like the young prodigy told Neo in the Oracle's den, there is no spoon.
Agreed. Everyone is so focused on his 2016 Pro Bowl season. People are not looking at his 2018 and 2019 seasons where he averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Injured or not, he is going downhill, aging and not nearly the same player he was in 2016.
 
BOB is giving DW4 all of receiving options a QB could ask for.
No he's not. Billy Oh gave away the best WR a QB could hope for. Due to a personality conflict (Billy has a lot of those). If O'Brien really wanted Cooks, he could have traded the pick for him, not signed Cobb, gave Hop a raise. No Johnson $12 million contract on the books. No Cobb (a 30+ year old WR) a $9 million/year deal. More cap money to extend Tunsil and Watson (like that's happening). A better T_E_A_M.

I guess O'Brien doesn't really put the team first, after all.
 
No he's not. Billy Oh gave away the best WR a QB could hope for. Due to a personality conflict (Billy has a lot of those). If O'Brien really wanted Cooks, he could have traded the pick for him, not signed Cobb, gave Hop a raise. No Johnson $12 million contract on the books. No Cobb (a 30+ year old WR) a $9 million/year deal. More cap money to extend Tunsil and Watson (like that's happening). A better T_E_A_M.

I guess O'Brien doesn't really put the team first, after all.
I agree. BOB is giving nothing to Watson. People are so focused on players "best" seasons when we acquire them. The reality is that Cobb has only had ONE 1000 yard season in his career, and has 13 combined TDs in his last 4 seasons, which have been marred by injury. David Johnson will be close to his 2018-2019 form, and nothing like he was in 2016. Brandin Cooks is a complete wild card. We really have no idea what to expect from him. BOB has done a horrible job providing Watson with anything to be excited about.
 
Agreed. Everyone is so focused on his 2016 Pro Bowl season. People are not looking at his 2018 and 2019 seasons where he averaged 3.7 yards per carry.
That's the narrative the Texans are trying to sell. The trade was about Hopkins wanting too much money. Look at the shiny new RB. You fans are too stupid to understand what our plans are. We're playing 3-D chess, here. Run along, and go buy some Johnson, Cobb, and Cooks jerseys on your way out.

Every fan should be infuriated by this organization's dismissive attitude. "This is all about the T_E_A_M." This is all about their egos.
 
The Johnson Twins 2019 Comparison

Rushing
Duke: 83 Rush, 410 Yrds, 4.9 Avg, 2 TDs
David: 94 Rush, 345 Yrds, 3.7 Avg, 2 TDs

Receiving
Duke: 44 Catches, 410 Yrds, 9.3 Avg, 3 TDs
David: 36 Catches, 370 Yrds, 10.3 Avg, 4 TDs

dang - seems like we could have just started Duke and kept Hopkins and it would have been better for the T-E-A-M
 
No he's not. Billy Oh gave away the best WR a QB could hope for. Due to a personality conflict (Billy has a lot of those). If O'Brien really wanted Cooks, he could have traded the pick for him, not signed Cobb, gave Hop a raise. No Johnson $12 million contract on the books. No Cobb (a 30+ year old WR) a $9 million/year deal. More cap money to extend Tunsil and Watson (like that's happening). A better T_E_A_M.

I guess O'Brien doesn't really put the team first, after all.

Depends on what he thought of Nuk. He wasn't going to pay Nuk the kind of money he wanted. He wanted to change the wr corps. I don't blame him for doing something different to try to get out of mediocrity. I like the wr corps better now. They will be better equipped to withstand WFV'S injuries.
 
Depends on what he thought of Nuk. He wasn't going to pay Nuk the kind of money he wanted. He wanted to change the wr corps. I don't blame him for doing something different to try to get out of mediocrity. I like the wr corps better now. They will be better equipped to withstand WFV'S injuries.
It had zero do do with any of that. It was a personality conflict. Another in a series for this Head Coach (now GM). If Billy were that concerned about Fuller's injuries, trade Fuller, then trade for Cooks.

Call a spade a spade. O'Brien wanted Hopkins out. Whether it made the team worse, or not. Everything else is a scramble to coverup the truth.

For those wondering, this is a spade.
PG247-transplant-spade-steel-handle-f-15.jpg
 
It had zero do do with any of that. It was a personality conflict. Another in a series for this Head Coach (now GM). If Billy were that concerned about Fuller's injuries, trade Fuller, then trade for Cooks.

Call a spade a spade. O'Brien wanted Hopkins out. Whether it made the team worse, or not. Everything else is a scramble to coverup the truth.

For those wondering, this is a spade.
PG247-transplant-spade-steel-handle-f-15.jpg

I'd probably bet OBrien, a few of his coaches and some guys here would twist that definition a bit to fit a more COUGH COUGH acceptable term among their social circle ... "like why not just use the word shovel" but I appreciate the picture definition to remove all doubt! LOL

Its pretty sad to these all these guys scramble around like cockroaches when the light comes on trying to defend all of these indefensible moves by OBrien!
 
The trade was about Hopkins wanting too much money.
I don't think it was about how much money. Just that he was in the 2nd year of the extension.

Remember that one day hold-out? The following season they made him the 2nd highest paid receiver in the league with more guaranteed money ever paid to a WR. The first year of that extension was 2018 & he was already talking about wanting more money before the 2019 season.

Like I said before, I understand where Hopkins is coming from. Julio Jones' deal just blew Hopkins deal out the water just two years later. But it's just too soon to be going back to the well.
 
I didn't write that coherently. I was attempting to speak in the voice of the Texans organization. I should have used quotes, like "The trade was about Hopkins wanting too much money. Look at the shiny new RB. You fans are too stupid to understand what our plans are."


I think the answer will always depend upon who is giving it. I don't think O'Brien was fond of Hopkins, regardless of his contributions to, and the success of, the Texans. It seems to me that some influential Houston business man, (men), would convince Cal and his mom, that the longer he waits to replace O'Brien, the more talent will be lost !
 
It had zero do do with any of that. It was a personality conflict. Another in a series for this Head Coach (now GM). If Billy were that concerned about Fuller's injuries, trade Fuller, then trade for Cooks.

Call a spade a spade. O'Brien wanted Hopkins out. Whether it made the team worse, or not. Everything else is a scramble to coverup the truth.

For those wondering, this is a spade.
PG247-transplant-spade-steel-handle-f-15.jpg

Yes he did, now the babies mommas are Glendales problem and there will be more cap room to help improve the team after next yr.

Win-Win
 
I didn't write that coherently. I was attempting to speak in the voice of the Texans organization. I should have used quotes, like "The trade was about Hopkins wanting too much money. Look at the shiny new RB. You fans are too stupid to understand what our plans are."

Care to share what the Texans plans are?

I know what BOB wants from his WR corps. Fast professional WR's on the outside and a Welker/Edelman type slot. (Cobbis the best slot this franchise has ever had. (This is sad.)
 
It had zero do do with any of that. It was a personality conflict. Another in a series for this Head Coach (now GM). If Billy were that concerned about Fuller's injuries, trade Fuller, then trade for Cooks.

Call a spade a spade. O'Brien wanted Hopkins out. Whether it made the team worse, or not. Everything else is a scramble to coverup the truth.

For those wondering, this is a spade.
PG247-transplant-spade-steel-handle-f-15.jpg

Hey, I've got one of those in my garage . Always wondered what it was. Thanks!
 
Care to share what the Texans plans are?

I know what BOB wants from his WR corps. Fast professional WR's on the outside and a Welker/Edelman type slot. (Cobbis the best slot this franchise has ever had. (This is sad.)
Let's wait until he actually plays for us before saying this.
 
Let's wait until he actually plays for us before saying this.

If healthy.

Look at his career and tell me what slot has been close to that good on the Texans since their inception.

I'm sure if Cobb doesn't do well posters will blame BOB.because that's the easy way out.
 

Now, I’m aware it’s established fan mentality to talk up the new guy, and I certainly think David Johnson both belongs on an NFL roster and has shown flashes of being a superstar running back in the past. However, it is worth noting that there are a lot of things that are fundamentally weird about making him the centerpiece of a trade involving DeAndre Hopkins. I think the Johnson return has sort of gotten lost in the wash of the trade because of the inherent emotional hot-button that the trade instantly became.

One of them, which I touched on at the time of the trade, is that David Johnson is not a very good zone runner. In fact, he was noticeably less great at it than Carlos Hyde was last year. In 2018 and 2019, Johnson averaged 3.9 and 3.8 yards per carry, respectively, on zone runs. Hyde averaged 4.4 yards per carry on zone runs in 2019. Johnson’s zone running, memorably in my eyes, was a big reason why Matt Waldman was a little lower on him than most at the time he was drafted.

But that’s really just scratching the surface of why I think Johnson is an odd fit for the Texans. Here are several other reasons:

David Johnson’s biggest calling card over Carlos Hyde is first- and second-down versatility … but Bill O’Brien rarely incorporates running back passes

Why, exactly, is Duke Johnson going to be sharing time with David Johnson?

Johnson’s declining explosion and his injury history likely go hand-in-hand

Running backs just aren’t worth that much money anymore

These Houston Texans value their read of your character more than they value their read of your talent. They have to believe that Johnson’s character will lead him past his injuries to a bounceback season the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2016 for this acquisition to make any sense.

There is little evidence from the last three years to show any reasonable confidence in that.
 
If healthy.

Look at his career and tell me what slot has been close to that good on the Texans since their inception.

I'm sure if Cobb doesn't do well posters will blame BOB.because that's the easy way out.

Honest question (I'll regret asking) - if, as you just said, looking at his career he has been a good slot but if he comes here and doesn't do well, exactly whose fault would that be if not BoB? He is the person who signed him, designed the playbook, probably by halfway through Game 1 Quarter 1 will be calling the plays.

Other than 51-7 when exactly is it OK to blame BOB? I'll give you that a lot of players need to execute their job with with more consistency but if that happens and Cobb doesn't do well - who do you blame?
 
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