MEGA SWATT
All Pro
I hope this will motivate the whole Texans organization. I'm so tired of watching everyone else celebrate their team's success.
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I agree, he's just being an ass about the whole thing. If the Texans were in the NFC South they'd have done just as well with Gary as the Saints had done with Sean. No doubt about it. It's the lousy division they play in that's prepared them so well to hand Indianapolis a 30-17 Super Bowl loss, not any kind of superior coaching or drafting.
We have a good team now and much of that is indeed because of Gary Kubiak. That they are miserable against their division opponents, in pressure situations and in important games is also very much because of Gary Kubiak. Works both ways.
Can't wait for next year though. We're on our way now! Playoffs or Bust or Not! Maybe! Yeah!
LOL.
I am honestly impressed with Sean Payton. I was rooting for the Colts, but I can't ignore what Sean Payton has done in four years. He went from 3-13 to two Championship games, a Super Bowl appearance and a Super Bowl win.
Gotta give him some props. He's a great coach.
Fans act like coaching smarts are only dependent on the ultimate outcome and that is stupid. Fact is coaching is like playing blackjack - you play the odds. Have the game tonight with the Saints losing buy 3 or less and Payton is the donkey for his 4th down decision. "He gave the game away, blah, blah, blah" His decision was neither smarter or dumber because of the ultimate outcome.
All I was saying is that he has done a good job since he was hired in New Orleans. And, if they'd lost tonight, he still would be seen as a good coach.
Sure, coaching is like gambling, but let's not forget that there are certain people better at gambling than others.
It's not just about ultimate outcome. I, personally, think that the coach of the San Diego Chargers - can't think of his name right now - is a good coach.
I hope this will motivate the whole Texans organization. I'm so tired of watching everyone else celebrate their team's success.
All I was saying is that he has done a good job since he was hired in New Orleans. And, if they'd lost tonight, he still would be seen as a good coach.
Sure, coaching is like gambling, but let's not forget that there are certain people better at gambling than others.
It's not just about ultimate outcome. I, personally, think that the coach of the San Diego Chargers - can't think of his name right now - is a good coach.
This thread just makes me happy I do not have to listen to any of you yahoos on the radio or TV. And I can see from what yall are writing that your ratings would "can" you before you got on a show.
And don't get me wrong. I think Payton has done a great job as well. And I agree he would have done a good job regardless of the outcome tonight.
I guess that is a point I have been trying to make around here. Perception is reality and yet variable. Texans win against the Jets in game 1 and lose against the Pats in game 16 to end with the same record and they are in the playoffs. The entire MB, radio discussion, etc. is different. Does that truly reflect in any way on Kubiak as a coach?
Add to Peter King speaking the truth this morning as well on 610.
King:"Listen, we sit every Sunday and wonder...how are the Texans going to screw up this game. It's not like they are going to get beat...they are going to find somehow to lose the game. Also, tell me a meaningful game that they have played in and won in the past three years. What, they beat the Colts once?"
Vandermeer: "Yeah, but we put on the 4 game winning streak at the end of the season to close out strong".
King: "But the barn door is shut at 5-7, I'm sorry. They shouldn't be in that situation."
Spoke the truth...and it hurts. I'm sure his podcast will be up shortly.
I feel like I left a sarcasm smiley or two out in previous posts on this thread.
Fans act like coaching smarts are only dependent on the ultimate outcome and that is stupid. Fact is coaching is like playing blackjack - you play the odds. Have the game tonight with the Saints losing buy 3 or less and Payton is the donkey for his 4th down decision. "He gave the game away, blah, blah, blah" His decision was neither smarter or dumber because of the ultimate outcome.
Actually yes it does because the Jets game was the first game of the season and they came out flat and ill prepared. So yes, it does make a difference on how he coached. Your first game sets a tone. If they win that game then they have 9 wins going into the Pats game and maybe it would not have mattered as much if they were in...the whole season sets up differently. I mean you can play mess with the schedule all you want. Fact is, they didn't get in and he gets some of the blame. Did Thunder steal your pass word?
After the Saints recovered that on-side kick everyone I was watching the game with were all saying how great a call that was by the coach. My response was it's only a great call because it worked. Had it not worked and they lost, Payton would have been the goat.
Add to Peter King speaking the truth this morning as well on 610.
King:"Listen, we sit every Sunday and wonder...how are the Texans going to screw up this game. It's not like they are going to get beat...they are going to find somehow to lose the game. Also, tell me a meaningful game that they have played in and won in the past three years. What, they beat the Colts once?"
He's right that the Texans don't get beat anymore. They are a talented team that play very well together.... until they don't. I just think King is lacking the conclusion: youth and inexperience- I think that's why. With all the experience these guys have gained the past 2 seasons, it should change next year. The Miami and NE were big games that we won. And, so was the game vs. SF and at Buffalos earlier in the year, as well as at Cincy.
Vandermeer: "Yeah, but we put on the 4 game winning streak at the end of the season to close out strong".
King: "But the barn door is shut at 5-7, I'm sorry. They shouldn't be in that situation."
He's right. They shouldn't have been in that situation. They should've won more games. They blew it this year.
Spoke the truth...and it hurts. I'm sure his podcast will be up shortly.
The speaking of the truth hurts a lot less than the disappointment I experienced when we lost those games and when we missed out on the playoffs.
After the Saints recovered that on-side kick everyone I was watching the game with were all saying how great a call that was by the coach. My response was it's only a great call because it worked. Had it not worked and they lost, Payton would have been the goat.
Yes Kubiak gets some of the blame, no doubt about it. But there is plenty of blame to go around and any one little piece different and we at least get to watch the Texans in an away playoff game. Heck if they get paired with the Bengals we probably get to see them in at least two playoff games. Did you notice how much of the footage being used to analyze how to attack the Colts was from the Texans?
Yup people judge the wisdom on the result and that is a perfect example because an onside kick literally rests on the bounce of the ball.
I heard Payton say they believed there was a 70-80% chance that they would recover the kick. Assuming he's right, what this means is that 7 or 8 times out of 10 it would have worked, 2 or 3 times out of 10, it would have been Colts ball in great field position, and 10 out of 10 times it would have been a great call.
I think this was the turning point in the game - particularly coming on the heels of the Saints FG that ended the first half (after a three and out by the Colts).
Unfortunately, it brought back memories of a the on-side kick the Jags did against the Texans to open up the second half of one of their 2008 games. I thought that was the turning point in that game also.
I heard Payton say they believed there was a 70-80% chance that they would recover the kick. Assuming he's right, what this means is that 7 or 8 times out of 10 it would have worked, 2 or 3 times out of 10, it would have been Colts ball in great field position, and 10 out of 10 times it would have been a great call.
I think this was the turning point in the game - particularly coming on the heels of the Saints FG that ended the first half (after a three and out by the Colts).
Unfortunately, it brought back memories of a the on-side kick the Jags did against the Texans to open up the second half of one of their 2008 games. I thought that was the turning point in that game also.
On average, the statistics show that there is a 60% chance of recovering a surprise onside kick.
He was very fortunate that they recovered. Given the way that scrum went, it is quite possible The Peyton would have had the ball + a short field to get a touchdown.
All this being said, I wish this thread title would die and we would put this conversation elsewhere.
All this being said, I wish this thread title would die and we would put this conversation elsewhere.
He can say they believed there was a 110% chance they recover the ball and it doesn't make it true. I liked the 4th down call which failed and don't like the onside kick call that succeeded.
He can say they believed there was a 110% chance they recover the ball and it doesn't make it true. I liked the 4th down call which failed and don't like the onside kick call that succeeded.
I totally agree. I didn't mine the onside but I love the 4th down call. I think teams should almost always go for it on 4th down and reasonably short if they are inside the 10. Unless it's late in the game and the score dictates a FG, it's almost always the right call, IMO. By the way, that's one area where Kubiak's game management is pretty strong.
And don't get me wrong. I think Payton has done a great job as well. And I agree he would have done a good job regardless of the outcome tonight.
I guess that is a point I have been trying to make around here. Perception is reality and yet variable. Texans win against the Jets in game 1 and lose against the Pats in game 16 to end with the same record and they are in the playoffs. The entire MB, radio discussion, etc. is different. Does that truly reflect in any way on Kubiak as a coach?
After the Saints recovered that on-side kick everyone I was watching the game with were all saying how great a call that was by the coach. My response was it's only a great call because it worked. Had it not worked and they lost, Payton would have been the goat.
The saints won the coaching battle last night, it was very obvious.
Anyone want to talk about the lack of intensity the Colts had? I mean they only scored 7 points in the last three Qtrs of the game.
When are they going to learn you have to play 4 Qtrs of football to win in this league?
Talk about mediocre.
Not only that..... If Kubiak would have called that same outside stretch 3 times in a row turning it over on downs..... you'd never hear the end of it.
Then to open the second half with an onside kick..... doesn't matter if it worked or not, Kubiak would be crucified for that.
shweeewww.... at least that's one thing.One of the things that I have to actually give major props to Kubiak for, is how he took more risks in 2009 than he ever had in any season prior to this one.
He went for it on 4th down a lot more than he ever has. And he was doing it long before our annual Rally 'Round The Coach final four or five games of the season.
I think it was a gutsy call, I won't deny that. But I felt the same way I felt when I saw Chris Brown pull the ball back to throw... what's it called? Chutzpa... I like it.It was a great call whether it works or not. It's the Super Bowl, you're playing Peyton Manning, and you don't have much else to do BUT to try and throw that play at them. If Kubiak was doing that, in THAT same scenario as Sean Payton did, I would not be mad if it failed to give us the ball back. And I say that with all honesty.
That's when you do it.The Chris Brown HB pass is a bad call because it was done at the absolutely worst time: We had the Jags defense on their heels, it was 1st down near the end zone for pete's sake....
If it were telegraphed, they would have been covering the TE. He was wide open, they were playing the run.Chris Brown telegraphed that it was a HB pass as soon as he received the ball from Schaub, and he should have tossed it out of bounds. Fail, Fail, Fail, and Fail some more.
I don't think we can take Kubiak at his word when he is at the podium. He's just protecting his players.... that's what he's always done.Even Kubiak didn;t try to defende the poor playcall in his Loser Monday presser. He owned up to that one very quickly once it was posed to him as a question.
The debate over the HB Pass Debacle should end. It really should. Sunshiners are using this instance the same way the birthers are debating Obama's citzenship papers. It's futile.
Excellent piece you linked in your blog. I love that they showed the math, as opposed to some of the other stat sites.On average, the statistics show that there is a 60% chance of recovering a surprise onside kick.
So according to the Advanced NFL Stats, the Saints onside kick was a good risk. As long as they hadn't onside kicked much in previous games. And that doesn't take into account Peyton Manning and the Colts' drive success percentage.The EP for a failed onside attempt is -2.1 pts, and the EP for a success is +1.2 pts. At first glance it appears onside kicks are always losing propositions. But dont forget that youve always got to kickoff somehow, and a normal kickoff averages -0.7 pts for the kicking team.
EP(normal KO) = -0.7
EP(onside recovery) = +1.2
EP(onside failure) = -2.1
Lets call the success rate x. Solving for the break-even success rate, where the combined expected points of an onside kick equal that of a normal kick, we get:
1.2x + (1-x)(-2.1) = -0.7
1.2x - 2.1 +2.1x = -0.7
3.3x = 1.4
x = 42.4%
So 60% is a lot more than the break even success rate of 42%, and as long as a team has the element of surprise, onside kicks are well worth the riskat least under normal football conditions. Late in games, however, depending on the score and time remaining, we cant use the EP analysis anymore. We need to turn to win probability analysis, something Ill look at in part 2 of this article.
The catch is that teams cant do this very often. The key is that the onside attempt is unexpected. As soon as a team is known for sneaky onside kicks, its success rate will go down. But this isnt such a bad thing. As opponents are forced to respect the threat of an onside kick, their normal kick return blocking will suffer, allowing overall net kickoff distance to improve. Ultimately, there would be an equilibrium, making life more difficult for the receiving team.
Kind of hard to score points when you're sitting on your ass. The Saints
executed their gameplan, and once the scored dictated the Colts HAD to score,
that's when they were finally able to force Peyton to make a fatal mistake.
Peyton Manning had the ball only THREE PLAYS in the entire second quarter,
and then the Saints executed an onside kick to further keep Peyton sitting.
That's how you beat the Colts, but only the Saints were able to execute
that well-known gameplan this season. There was nothing "mediocre" about
that game.
The Saints just killed any excuse you guys could possibly use to save Kubiak's
ass yet again. I feel he's retarding the growth of this team, you don't. I
hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am.
So you have a 1 in 4 chance at success. A 1 in 4 chance at total failure. And a 50/50 chance that you'll run another play.
Kind of hard to score points when you're sitting on your ass. The Saints
executed their gameplan, and once the scored dictated the Colts HAD to score,
that's when they were finally able to force Peyton to make a fatal mistake.
Peyton Manning had the ball only THREE PLAYS in the entire second quarter,
and then the Saints executed an onside kick to further keep Peyton sitting.
That's how you beat the Colts, but only the Saints were able to execute
that well-known gameplan this season. There was nothing "mediocre" about
that game.
The Saints just killed any excuse you guys could possibly use to save Kubiak's
ass yet again. I feel he's retarding the growth of this team, you don't. I
hope I'm wrong, but I doubt I am.
But that's beside the point.
I think you have a very, very warped view of how easy it is to take a team to the Super Bowl. You seem to think that any really good coach can come in and take a team, any team, from scratch to the Super Bowl or at least, to the play offs, in 3-4 years.
Six plays, I believe.
But that's beside the point.
I think you have a very, very warped view of how easy it is to take a team to the Super Bowl. You seem to think that any really good coach can come in and take a team, any team, from scratch to the Super Bowl or at least, to the play offs, in 3-4 years.
If it were that easy, more teams would make it to the Super Bowl and no team would go for 4-5 years without going to the playoffs. When you consider that half the teams in the league haven't made it to the Super Bowl (since the merger) and and in the past 30 years, only 5 teams haven't had a playoff drought of over 4 years (Giants, Ravens, Broncos, Vikings, and Steelers) and 17 teams have had a drought of 7+ years in that same period... including the Texans. And the Texans were starting at a deficit.
Kubiak has improved this team each year. If the team takes a big step backwards next year, I'll join your side and ask for Kubiak to be gone. But I don't see anything, including the schedule, that makes me believe that this team is going to be worse next year.
On average, the statistics show that there is a 60% chance of recovering a surprise onside kick.
I'm so tired of all the excuses.
Stop making excuses!
Woulda, coulda, shoulda!
Blah, blah, blah!
Parrot, parrot, parrot!
Regurgitate, regurgitate, regurgitate!
/end pink soaper imitation
That's when you do it.
If it were telegraphed, they would have been covering the TE. He was wide open, they were playing the run.
I don't think we can take Kubiak at his word when he is at the podium. He's just protecting his players.... that's what he's always done.
Take McNair's words with Kubiak's actions.... he's been trying to get our leaders to take over the game all year long. That's what this team is missing.
Not using injury as an excuse but it should be noted that those 4 consecutive games were on the heels of losing OD..
I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin'.
I've never seen an NFL team play games without a placekicker. Not sure how that would've helped matters.
Yeah, but we were ahead on both Indy games. Bad coaching is what lost us those games...not losing OD. I mean, he would have definitely helped, but we were in positions to win regardless.
Ever heard of signing a new kicker?
You said we'd have won at least one of those 4 games, if we'd only fired the Browns. It was a ridiculous statement. First of all, why on earth would we have fired Kris Brown before the Tennessee game? He missed one big kick the week before against Indy but was excellent for us the past 2 1/2 seasons. If we cut him after the Tennessee game, I'm not sure how that helps us since he didn't miss a kick vs. Indy or vs. Jacksonville. Perhaps you wanted him replaced with a magic kicker? that could score more points per FG than Kris Brown could, who went 3 for 3 over those two games.
Regardless of all that, how ridiculous do you have to be to think that simply cutting players can make your position stronger in the middle of the season?
Too bad the Redskins didn't cut Jason Campbell in October. Imagine how much better they would've been at QB. Or, perhaps Jacksonville should've cut their starting DEs in order to improve their pass rush. Maybe Baltimore could've cut Derek Mason in order to improve their passing game?
You said we'd have won at least one of those 4 games, if we'd only fired the Browns. It was a ridiculous statement. First of all, why on earth would we have fired Kris Brown before the Tennessee game? He missed one big kick the week before against Indy but was excellent for us the past 2 1/2 seasons. If we cut him after the Tennessee game, I'm not sure how that helps us since he didn't miss a kick vs. Indy or vs. Jacksonville. Perhaps you wanted him replaced with a magic kicker? that could score more points per FG than Kris Brown could, who went 3 for 3 over those two games.
Regardless of all that, how ridiculous do you have to be to think that simply cutting players can make your position stronger in the middle of the season?
Too bad the Redskins didn't cut Jason Campbell in October. Imagine how much better they would've been at QB. Or, perhaps Jacksonville should've cut their starting DEs in order to improve their pass rush. Maybe Baltimore could've cut Derek Mason in order to improve their passing game?
Dale, you and I have discussed this over and over. Replacing a kicker late in the season isn't really all that hard. Ask that somewhat successful team in New Orleans.
Kickers are a dime a damn dozen.
That didn't happen in New Orleans. Hartley was on the roster before the season started.
That's not the point, though. He was arguing that we'd have won at least one of those 4 games if Brown was cut. But, there isn't one coach in the NFL that would've cut Kris Brown before the Tennessee game. Kris Brown never missed another kick in any Texan loss after the Monday night game versus Tennessee.
But he sure as hell missed a few in those last few wins.
I mean, he couldn't even make a freaking extra point FG. It got darn ugly at the end of the season man. No excuse for not looking at what other legs might have been out there that could have possibly contributed.