EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
Ohhhhh 32 million. yeahhhhh that makes it ok, ha chump change........
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- Thread starter EllisUnit
- Start date
Ohhhhh 32 million. yeahhhhh that makes it ok, ha chump change........
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
In terms of NFL quarterback salaries it's actually middle of the road.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/quarterback/
Looking at that his salary for the first two years isn't really outrageous for a starting, possible franchise QB. Granted his guaranteed money is higher than you might expect but that was needed to pull him away from Denver. That's one of the ways teams pull players away from Elway because he doesn't like to do guaranteed money.
So yeah 32 million sounds like a lot, and to most of us it is a lot, but in contexts of QB salaries it's not that much for a starting QB.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
Problem is he does not appear to be a franchise QB, showing no improvement. In fact I believe what we are seeing is he seems to be getting worse. Not near worth what he's making so far.
Looking at that list, there are 4 QBs that make less than Os that I would prefer to have on the team over him (not counting guys on rookie contracts): Stafford, Bradford, Smith and Dalton. The only one that was available was Bradford for a high price.
The reality was we didn't really have much choice. After what happened in the playoffs, noone wanted another season with Hoyer. Draft a QB? With our pick we only had a chance at Lynch - Wentz or Goff would have cost a huge price... Something like 3 firsts. And then rookies are always a gamble and rarely perform out of the gate.
Go with Savage? OB had 3 seasons to look at him and doesn't believe in him as a starter. Basically both those options would mean, let's not give this team a real chance to compete this year.
So sign a FA? Only Fitz and Griffin were the other "high profile" QBs... Os is young and has shown promise and was producing when the game was on the line. So They circled in Os as the QB that gave them the best chance to win this year and beyond. And I actually agree with that evaluation (yes, to this day). And as for the money? Who cares? Going with Savage, Hoyer or Lynch this season and probably not having a real shot while saving money or signing a FA we can't afford once we sign a real QB isn't the better alternative.
So if we missed on Os, it was a shot worth taking. And we have an out after 2 seasons. If we didn't take a swing at Os, we would probably have wasted those 2 seasons anyways...
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Many franchise QB's didn't look anything like franchise QB's until their second, third or even fourth seasons.
Sometimes you have to be prepared to take a couple of seasons of beatings to get your guy settled in while attempting to build the team around him.
We're all impatient, but that's just how it is in the NFL. Of course, there are exceptions, but those are few, and far between.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
While i do agree with that, gradual improvement should be seen. Even a little......so far nothing.
Texas Jake
Rookie
I disagree, I think we have seen improvement. Not as much as would be hope for and difficult to gauge with the variable of differing levels of competition each week, but there has been improvement.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
I thought Os had a much better game against Detroit.
Now that the TE's are starting to shine, I see our O really gaining some momentum in the second half of the season.
How long has Brock been in the NFL?
Can you name any Franchise QB's currently playing that took 4 years to develop?
Texas Jake
Rookie
How much of that time was on the bench? Not the same as on the field. Brock has had about one season total time as a starter. Let's see where he is at the end of the season before we rush to judgement. I haven't seen enough to say he is the answer at QB or isn't at this point.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
I can name some who had worse win/loss ratios through their first 15 starts.
There are quite a few franchise QB's playing now who have much longer careers than Brock who have yet to have any notable success.
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
First it's 8 games in a new system surrounded by a bunch of other players who are also in a new system. Even with that in mind I think we have seen improvement, he looked much better against Detroit who has been red hot and he has gotten better about realizing there are other players than just Hopkins and Fuller that can catch.
Also I can't look back at the colts game and not like what I see. I don't care if they played like crap the first 3 1/2 quarters, we didn't need them to play great football all 60 minutes to win we just needed 4 minutes. It kind of reminded me of an old college buddy. He would literally sleep all through class and just wake up to take the tests. What made everyone so mad though is that he would ace the test so the professor didn't care.
Ok one of the big things people hammered on was Brock only had 7 career starts but now we're hammering that he has been around 4 years? You can't say he's both inexperienced and experienced with no improvement. Those things are mutually exclusive and the fact is he hasn't been playing in the NFL for 4 years he's been signed to an NFL team for 4 years.
Even if he had had more starts in Denver than he did the two systems are totally different. One keeps the QB on a short leash and basically the QB is just the first one to get the ball during a play and the other makes the QB the full on field leader able to change things on the fly. Not saying one is better than the other buts it's totally different styles and requires totally different minds sets.
Also FYI, Romo took three seasons as the starter for Dallas before he even started to look like a franchise QB.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
I'm not sure that Carson Palmer or Drew Brees, both considered franchise QB's now and two of the top 4 highest paid QB's in the league, were ever considered to be franchise QB's in the first 3-4 years of their careers. And they started a hell of a lot more games than Brock has...
Not one person who signed on the day FA started met with the team signing him. Teams are not allowed to contact players of other teams until FA starts. The NFL allows teams to contact player agents three days before FA starts, but that's it.
We didn't meet with Lamar Miller, Jeff Allen, or Tony Bergstrum.
If Malik Jackson signed with Jacksonville on day one, they would have done so without ever talking to him & that's a $100M contract.
However, teams can generally take their time when they know the player isn't signing with their current team. Drew Brees & Dante Cullpepper met with several teams before they signed. Peyton Manning was out there for a little bit.
But the deal is that while rumor was that Brock wanted out, Denver wanted him. We had to present a good faith offer, which we did. Denver countered, we responded, Denver dropped out. They couldn't afford to outbid us, knowing we were going to keep going.
& it's not like we were looking for a polished QB. Someone set in there ways. We were looking for a young guy still trying to figure things out, but has proven that he's got what it takes to win. & Brock did that, small sample size or not.
The onus is on Bill O'Brien to prove he can do what he said he can do, when he endorsed the deal & that is develop Brock Osweiler into a franchise QB. & while Brock isn't where I expected him to be, he's not so far off that I'm willing to call him a bust, or the deal a mistake. But from what I'm seeing, chances are we're going to get what we want out of Bill & Brock.
Honestly, I think we may be seeing what we think we already believe.
throwing fumbles notwithstanding, he looked much better to me over the last two games than he did all year. Stats probably aren't much different, but eyeball wise... better.
It's weird though, he'll throw 3 or 4 passes that are absolute lasers and then a total misfire.
I don't get it.
Drew Brees.
Even after four years, the Chargers let him go & not too many people thought Brees was a "franchise" QB. At least Miami didn't as they chose Cullpepper over Brees.
& I'll say it again about the Colts game. Brock looked pretty good for most of it.
People want to lump the first 3 & 1/2 qtrs together, the first five possessions were so bad, it brought his numbers down up until the 4th qtr. But from halfway through the 2nd qtr to the end of the game, his numbers were pretty dang good.
We scored, then took a knee going into half time.
We started the third qtr with a TD scoring drive.
He threw the interception.
We had another drive going that was killed by penalties, not the QB. back to back holding calls on solid runs.
Then we another TD drive,
Another TD drive,
Big play in OT.
And again, that's what made the Texans go all in on him to begin with. He's clutch. He did that against some pretty good teams last season in "real" situations.
8 games from now, I think most of us will be pretty pleased with our franchise QB.
sandman
Brexit Advisor
You know, Aaron Rodgers didn't do crap his first three years in the league.
EllisUnit
Vote RED!!!
We did have a bigger sample size on all the guys you mentioned than we did Brock though, and none got nearly the money he did.
Which is it:
$37 million is the going rate for a fourth year quarterback.
$37 million is expensive for what is "in reality" a rookie quarterback.
I'm not buying the argument that it is wise to pay veteran (with some accomplishments) money and expect rookie results.
$37 million is the going rate for a fourth year quarterback.
$37 million is expensive for what is "in reality" a rookie quarterback.
I'm not buying the argument that it is wise to pay veteran (with some accomplishments) money and expect rookie results.
FuzzyLogic
Mathematically Possible
Because none of the others are quarterbacks - They got pretty good money relative to their position and assumed role (backup or starter).
Comparing the money you have to spend for a quarterback prospect compared to other positions is a losing prospect. I'll give you that they had a larger sample size.
Again easier to find a free agent RB/Guard/DL then a QB - for QB, you take your chances when they present themselves either through the draft which leads to potential wasted pick and at least four years before the team is willing to say it was a blown pick or through a FA signing where the money is an issue.
I really don't see why the money keeps coming up - if you want a cheap quarterback keep signing low tier guys - but your chances of winning a SB will be just as poor as paying a FA and taking a chance.
If finding a quality QB, let alone a franchise QB, was so damn easy why is it so hard for every team to do? What less than half the teams in the league feel they are "set" at QB?
Comparing the money you have to spend for a quarterback prospect compared to other positions is a losing prospect. I'll give you that they had a larger sample size.
Again easier to find a free agent RB/Guard/DL then a QB - for QB, you take your chances when they present themselves either through the draft which leads to potential wasted pick and at least four years before the team is willing to say it was a blown pick or through a FA signing where the money is an issue.
I really don't see why the money keeps coming up - if you want a cheap quarterback keep signing low tier guys - but your chances of winning a SB will be just as poor as paying a FA and taking a chance.
If finding a quality QB, let alone a franchise QB, was so damn easy why is it so hard for every team to do? What less than half the teams in the league feel they are "set" at QB?
None of those guys are QB's either, and wouldn't demand near the salary even if they had started every game for 4 years
Texas Jake
Rookie
Some of that might be attributed to 1) different reads by QB and receiver 2) pressure from pass rush 3) breakdown in mechanics. I don't think Brock is totally comfortable in this offense yet which would lead to jittery play and result in number 3 above.
Texas Jake
Rookie
Leading into free agency, Brock was considered by many to be the top FA QB, but there was no way he wasn't staying in Denver so he wasn't a real option. We sign him and the story changes to it is too much money for an unproven commodity... Plus he has serious flaws... Plus Elway would not spend big money for him and is glad to be rid of him.
I'm pretty sure we didn't pay him based on his sample size.
They payed him for the way he played the games he did play. The kid has true grit. He played well enough for Denver to secure HFA in the playoffs against teams playing for HFA in the playoffs.
It's possible that we could have started Savage this season & the team not play well enough for us to be in that situation. While Savage might have played well, we wouldn't know how good he is if he never gets to play in games that matter... like Schaub. He was our QB for six years & the truth of the matter is we don't know if he has any grit or not, because he was never fortunate enough to play in games with any "real" meaning.
We could have drafted a QB & not know for years.
Now, we've got a guy that we know, without a doubt, that he has it. O'Brien just needs to figure how to get it out of him.
I'll agree, it looks like O'B is having a hard time with that as Osweiler struggled quite a bit early in the season. We differ, in that I don't think he's struggled so much recently, regardless what the stats say, I think he's improved. I think his ceiling is still high.
I don't know that we'll win a divisional playoff game, but I'm betting we'll be competitive. Might win... might not.
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
The Chargers let him go due to injury. By Brees' 4th year, he was playing very well, although he had significant experience comparatively at that point.
Rodgers first became a starter in his 4th year and also played extremely well.
There is no comparison between Brock and those two guys.
I would have to imagine their stats were much better than Brock's, but I don't know for a fact.
Their stats were better, but neither went to a team implementing a new offense with all new weapons and OL
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
I agree, i'll just add on that it's not just as simple as games he played...lots of guys get those opportunities throughout the season & it amounts to nothing most times. Not only did Brock have the measurables, he also had a small, but encouraging sample size of games he played in, that literally saved the Broncos season. If he plays like hot garbage against NE, and stinks up the joint in those 7 games he played in, that AFC championship game is in Foxboro not Denver...& that's if they even make the playoffs. He was also young and had had years to develop & learn the pro game & learn how to play the position on this level......................& he had some of the best tutelage you could get in Elway & Manning to boot. For all the over-hyping draftniks do when speaking about their favorite prospect being "pro ready", Brock actually was by the time we got him.. & ALL OF THAT, is what they paid him for.
Bob literally couldn't win. The same people complaining about the Brock QB signing & how much money we gave him are the same ones that were losing their **** b/c BoB hadn't committed to a qb in his 2 years here........ Those folks for the most part are also the same ones that were bitching years ago when we signed Schaub. The only difference between then and now is back then they were complaining about how much draft capital we gave up to get him vs. now they're talking about actual monetary capital we gave up to get Brock.
Something that's also funny is that Brock was the most intriguing FA prospect last year & if he hits FA & signs with another team &/or resigns with the donkeys........... and then lights it up, Folks here are bitching b/c the Texans didn't even try to go after him. Some people would only be happy if the organization did things exactly the way that they wanted them to.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Agree. If you want a top tier qb, it's gonna make what you paid Osweiler look like chump change.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
But Osweiler does have something in common with those guys - a ring.
JWLCASPER
Waterboy
And this is why most front offices, coaches, scouts, Monday Morning quarterbacks, and Yearlong Draftniks fail. It is based upon the misleading principle that "my way is the right way/only way." You can put me into some of those above categories because I love football and I break down film, prospects, and schemes for varying reasons, however I never let my analysis become my final conclusion. I value our own Texian and 76 among others who constantly are doing the same. I value McShay and Kiper and all the mediums in between. You utilize all material presented and find underlying principles/information that questions your findings or supports your findings. From there you get a larger scope of the player/team in question.
What I find in football on a smaller scale than real life is that people are so caught up in "MY" way or "MY" perception that it becomes the sole perception that one will accept. In the meantime thousands of alternative and acceptable/better options are discovered and implemented while the original person is still arguing "MY" way.
This is why I enjoy this board, even with the sour pusses that seem to cheer against the Texans. They have an engrained version of the Winning Texans in their mind and unless the team changes to fit that perception we will always be losers.
I'm from the school of thought that you need the negatives to really examine the complete picture, and those posters give me information that I take into my next scouting/film analysis, whether it is my original opinion or not.
Sadly too many people in all walks of life, especially football front offices, want to do it the way they were taught or come to understand. Those methods don't always translate to different situations which leads people to constantly arguing their way works in the right situation. Well that's great if you can recreate your environment, but if you can't, then how do you adapt, grow, learn, and excel?
maverick512000
Hall of Fame
Not saying I expect rookie results I'm saying I expect growing pains when going to a new team and an entirely new style of coaching and QB expectations.
I still say Brock's contract, at least the first two years, is about to become the going rate for any non-drafted QB. The money on the table for the "elite" QBs is to high for tHe middle of the road ones to not notice and demand more. I actually think it was Elway that was saying there really aren't any average QB contracts anymore.
Either they are very cheap and you get what you pay for, they are drafted and you do what you can with a rookie or they are high dollar and you hope for the best. That's why the salary cap keeps going up every year but the cap can't keep up with th contracts when you have teams like the colts that are willing to blow the whole cap on just a QB.
JWLCASPER
Waterboy
The way I get a snapshot of contract value is team payroll percentage. How much of a teams cap is allotted to you and are you worth that much towards the team and victory. Here are the quarterback numbers. This changes each year as the salary changes and players get deeper into their contracts with incremental increases.
Side Note: The cap is expected to increase the next two years so Brock's hopefully four year deal will be far below market/dollar value in two years.
Quarterback Percentage Cap Allotted
Osweiler: 7.88%
Rodgers: 12.48%
Luck: 12.22%
Stafford: 14.81%
E. Manning 15.70%
Cutler: 11.30%
A. Smith: 11.73%
Flacco: 14.92%
D.Brees: 11.77%
T. Brady: 9.28% == skewed because
he keeps renegotiating his deals to get up front signing bonus money and allowing the Patriots more money to spend in regards to cap.
Look at that list and you will see the value in the contract, especially if that turns into a 3/4 year deal with renegotiation for an extension if things pan out the way everyone hopes. We would have had Brock years 25-29 when his contract earnings should have been his highest at a market/dollar value far below what it will be in 2-4 years. He is absolutely worth 8-10 percent of the Texans cap during JJ/Merci/Clowney years on value contracts as well.
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
Not exactly fair to compare Osweiler's contract to a rookie contract, as the CBA has precluded the rookie contracts from being "market value".
I realize that Osweiler wasn't a first round pick, but when you consider that prior to the rookie cap, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and Sam Bradford (all 2010 or earlier) all signed contracts with more guaranteed money than the $34 Million Osweiler got, it tells you rookie QB's wouldn't be all that much cheaper if free market forces (which include desperation and stupidity) were allowed to determine those amounts.
Good post. The Texans certainly weren't protected from free market forces, including desperation and stupidity.
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
Well, at least there's the overall cap that still eliminates a "true" free market in the NFL. Who knows what Brock (not to mention the true franchise QB's of the world) would be making if that didn't exist.
First, you just can't go by years. Need to go by number of starts.
Every former player-turned-talking head on the toob has said that real game experience counts way more than holding the clipboard on the sidelines.
So your question should read, name any Franchise QB that developed, came into his own, within his first 15 starts.
My answer this year is Prescott. Right now he LOOKS like he's on his way to being a franchise level QB. A couple of years ago it was Russell Wilson.
BUT
both of those guys had solid running attacks to go to, meaning neither Prescott nor Wilson had to completely carry their team. We don't have a RB anywhere close to BeastMode or Elliott quality.
And before you point to Aaron Rodgers, he went 6-10 his first year as the starter. And Favre had taken them to the NFC championship game the previous season so it's not like the team sucked.
Point is, all franchise QBs have had their share of bumpy starts.
The question was not "which FA QB resembles Brock the most."
the question was
four years ago if Drew had that same injury the Saints would still have tried to extend his contract... maybe not at $60M, but he was their franchise QB & they'd have taken a chance on that shoulder.
as I said in the previous post, Drew Brees wasn't "Dreward Brees" when the Chargers let him go & Miami opted for Dante Culpepper instead.
Shishkabob
All Pro
I'm just hoping Brock can be this year's Cousins. Cousins started out last year rough then turned it around in the second half. so far he has kept it going this season too.
FuzzyLogic
Mathematically Possible
Cousins - that might not be a bad comparison. IIRC (and if I am not remembering correctly feel free to flame me etc. etc.).
He got a few starts one year and did OK (3 starts over 60% completions) - some people on this forum were asking about trading for him
2013 a few more starts - and looked bad (5 starts? barely over 50% completions, more int's than TD's) - who the hell drafted this bum!
2014 about the same number of starts picked it up some but just barely
2015 started all 16 and was much better second half of the season (his "You like that" season)
2016 I bet more than a few people on here would take Captain Kirk over our own Brock....
Long winded... point being it took the kid some time in REAL games to figure things out... seems to come out to about a season or so of starts actually.
If BO isn't looking any better after 16-20 starts then I'll start to complain.
(I reserve the right to ***** and complain as loudly as anyone on game day - its emotional - as I have said before, it's why I would not be a great owner. Each week I would fire/cut everyone at halftime, kick the fans out, burn down the stadium and get drunk)
He got a few starts one year and did OK (3 starts over 60% completions) - some people on this forum were asking about trading for him
2013 a few more starts - and looked bad (5 starts? barely over 50% completions, more int's than TD's) - who the hell drafted this bum!
2014 about the same number of starts picked it up some but just barely
2015 started all 16 and was much better second half of the season (his "You like that" season)
2016 I bet more than a few people on here would take Captain Kirk over our own Brock....
Long winded... point being it took the kid some time in REAL games to figure things out... seems to come out to about a season or so of starts actually.
If BO isn't looking any better after 16-20 starts then I'll start to complain.
(I reserve the right to ***** and complain as loudly as anyone on game day - its emotional - as I have said before, it's why I would not be a great owner. Each week I would fire/cut everyone at halftime, kick the fans out, burn down the stadium and get drunk)
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
Drew Brees was excellent in San Diego from the start of his 4th year on.
My point was that Drew Brees doesn't fit the initial question. It took him 3 years to develop into an excellent player, not an average starter, an excellent player. Same with Rodgers, 3 years and then excellent, so they don't fit the original question.
I read between the lines of the question as a search for a Brock comparison who is also a franchise guy. It's obvious that was the point of the question.
ChampionTexan
Hall of Fame
While I think the premise itself is kind of moronic (Being able to identify someone who's succeeded and "compares" to Osweiler at this point in his career and using it as evidence Osweiler will succeed is akin to saying every QB drafted in the 6th round can be elite because we have one highly notable example of it), I disagree that there's no way to compare Brock and Brees. Over his first 16 games as a starter, Brees went 8-8, threw 17 TD's and 16 Int's, had a passer rating of 76.9, a completion percentage of 60.8, and a yards per completion of 10.26. Over the past two season (15 starts), Brock's gone 10-5, thrown 20 TD passes and 15 Int's, had a passer rating of approx. 79.6 (not going to go to the trouble of breaking out the impact of the 30 passes he threw over his first three years in the league), and had a completion percentage of 60.4 and a yards per completion of 10.65. His numbers as a Texan only are 5-3, 9 TD's and 9 Int's, passer rating of 73.1, a completion % of 59.3 and a YPC of 9.76.
Now we can argue that experience and games started aren't the same things, and while I would agree to a small extent, I think for the purpose we're talking here, it mainly is. While I'll repeat that I don't think it means much if anything, I think at this stage in their careers as starting NFL QB's, Drew and Brock are good comparisons to each other.
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Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
I find it hard to believe that a guy who has been a professional football player for 4 years, who has practiced against one of the best defenses in the sport most of that time is now going to need 'starts' to get better. Most good QB's have to overcome the physicality of the sport at the NFL level, but they still possess the instinct and proactive vision to know where the ball needs to go in almost every possible situation. Quick thinking.
I see Osweiler more reactive, slow to see things develop. Awkward football throw that lacks touch most of the time. Cant find the windows.
I remember Good Schaub fitting the ball into some of the tightest windows from the get go as a Texan. Im waiting to see similar things from Osweiler. I think almost all of us here could make the obvious throws Oz is making right now because frankly its not that hard to throw for 5.79 yards per attempt.
I see Osweiler more reactive, slow to see things develop. Awkward football throw that lacks touch most of the time. Cant find the windows.
I remember Good Schaub fitting the ball into some of the tightest windows from the get go as a Texan. Im waiting to see similar things from Osweiler. I think almost all of us here could make the obvious throws Oz is making right now because frankly its not that hard to throw for 5.79 yards per attempt.
Ok I was with ya right up until that last part. It's laughable to think that almost any of us here could throw a spiral, much less a NFL pass under pressure. And if you could consistently throw for 5.79 yards per attempt you would be in the NFL, not flapping your gums on a MB
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Ok I was with ya right up until that last part. It's laughable to think that almost any of us here could throw a spiral, much less a NFL pass under pressure. And if you could consistently throw for 5.79 yards per attempt you would be in the NFL, not flapping your gums on a MB
I see hyperbole isnt your thing.
FuzzyLogic
Mathematically Possible
Weeellll... given the avatar...
Uncle Rico: How much you wanna make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?... Yeah... Coach woulda put me in fourth quarter, we would've been state champions. No doubt. No doubt in my mind.
Uncle Rico: How much you wanna make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?... Yeah... Coach woulda put me in fourth quarter, we would've been state champions. No doubt. No doubt in my mind.