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JJ Watt - MVP

Whats been the difference between OPOY and MVP in the last 3 decades besides a coked out nutjob?
 
If you were starting all the franchises from scratch, lined every player up against the wall in a school yard style pick up, where does Watt get selected?
 
b0ng said:
Probably behind Luck and Rogers.
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I think that's about right. So in the truest sense, JJ isn't currently the most valuable player. But as others have noted, that's almost always going to be the hottest QB, and that's the way the award goes, and it won't change. Sad but true.

JJ is getting plenty of well deserved recognition, and I've never really cared much for individual gongs in team sports, so I guess I'm in the "So Watt" camp.
 
PapaL said:
A real MVP contributes in all phases of the game right?
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[/end debate]
 
markn said:
If you were starting all the franchises from scratch, lined every player up against the wall in a school yard style pick up, where does Watt get selected?
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It's most valuable PLAYER not position. Just because one position is more valued than another doesn't mean it's the most valuable player comes from that position.
 
markn said:
I think that's about right. So in the truest sense, JJ isn't currently the most valuable player. But as others have noted, that's almost always going to be the hottest QB, and that's the way the award goes, and it won't change. Sad but true.

JJ is getting plenty of well deserved recognition, and I've never really cared much for individual gongs in team sports, so I guess I'm in the "So Watt" camp.
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If I'm being honest here, Rogers isnt doing anything that Manning didnt do last year, or what Brees/Stafford did previous years. Yeah his TD:INT ratio is pretty, but every year theres a QB or 5 who put up gaudy stats. Watt is just doing things we haven't seen from a DL since White/Smith; LT notwithstanding. I think Mayock made a great point; at this point in his career it's time to make Watt the MVP. He just does way too much on the defensive side of the ball and now that he's even adding to the offense I dont see how he doesn't finish in the top 2 in MVP voting (pace remaining the same).

He should pretty much win DPOY every year until he's not the obviously best defensive player in the league (he should have 2 right now).
 
J.J. Watt is NFL's crazy outlier

Translating the DE's grades to other positions yields ridiculous results
By Sam Monson | Pro Football Focus
Watt vs. other DEs

First, let's take a look at how far out on his own Watt is compared to the rest of his peers. In the following chart, Watt's data point is represented by the red star in the far upper-right region, with everyone else occupying a different territory entirely:

insider_JJwattchart_tk_576x324.jpg

He holds the best three single-season grades at Pro Football Focus among 3-4 defensive ends. That's including this season, without even projecting his current grade out over 16 games; he is so good that 12 games of his 2014 season is already better than a full 16 games from anybody else.

Watt vs. players at other positions

• So let's start translating those numbers into quarterback play. Five thousand yards was once the all-time benchmark for passers. Dan Marino was the first player to cross that barrier, back in 1984, and it wasn't until 2008 that somebody did it again (Drew Brees). Now the mark has been broken eight times by five different quarterbacks, including at least one player eclipsing it each of the past three seasons.

If we assume that 5,000 yards represents a fair representation of the "best of the best," what would Watt be doing right now in quarterback terms? Based on the level of dominance over his 3-4 defensive end peers, he would be passing for a 7,100-yard season. If we translated it to touchdown passes, he would be throwing more than 70.

• How about running backs? Again, 2,000 yards is the great benchmark for running backs. That barrier has been surpassed just seven times in NFL history. If we assume that as our benchmark, then Watt would be rushing for 2,840 yards in a season.

• No receiver has ever broken 2,000 receiving yards in a season. Calvin Johnson came the closest, with 1,964 in 2012, but 16 players have broken the 1,600-yard mark. If we use that as our benchmark, then Watt's dominance represents a 2,272-yard receiving season, not just crossing into uncharted territory, but smashing right through the barrier and beyond.
​
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:spit:
 
The Outlier. I kinda like that as a nickname.

That and I still love "Guess Who" because every time he does something, the announcers go "And it's...guess who....J.J. Watt."
 
TheMatrix31 said:
The Outlier. I kinda like that as a nickname.
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From Wikipedia: "In statistics, an outlier is an observation point that is distant from other observations. An outlier may be due to variability in the measurement or it may indicate experimental error"

It's like God was making DE's and accidentally knocked a jar full of incredible into JJ's mold. :kitten:
 
Double Barrel said:
Unfortunately, I think the only way for a defensive player to win the MVP is if all the elite QBs have either an off year or are injured.

It's not right, but that's just the way it is in today's NFL.

Perception is reality for those with the power to vote, and they obviously perceive the elite QBs to be at the top of the MVP pyramid unless a RB has a phenomenal year.

J.J., and Texans fans, are just going to have to be content with another DPOY award. Two in three seasons is amazing in and of itself.
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If we were to get to the play offs on the strength of our defense, I could see Jj Watt having a good shot at the MVP. If the defense starts shut down our next four opponents & we end up winning the division.... I'd be on that "Jj Watt should win the MVP" wagon, but right now... nope. He's great, fun to watch but he's not changing games the way an MVP should.

Shut down Andrew Luck. Shut down Joe Flacco. Then we can talk.
 
thunderkyss said:
If we were to get to the play offs on the strength of our defense, I could see Jj Watt having a good shot at the MVP. If the defense starts shut down our next four opponents & we end up winning the division.... I'd be on that "Jj Watt should win the MVP" wagon, but right now... nope. He's great, fun to watch but he's not changing games the way an MVP should.

Shut down Andrew Luck. Shut down Joe Flacco. Then we can talk.
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:mcnugget: :foottap:
 
He didn't get a single vote in 2012, which defensively was ridiculous. Think some will give him pity votes this year though.
 
EVOLVIST said:
Brooks Reed has stats? Maybe sand fleas have stats. Maybe even blind watermellons have stats. But Brooks Reed?
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Oh, I missed this post. You have a fair point. I guess I was trying to find a quick and easy way to say that he seems to be in on more of the key defensive plays than he's been in previously (except maybe in 2011? not sure). Maybe I just tend to key in on his name/number and it results in a false impression of Reed's play.

And I think a large part of Reed's contributions (and to a lesser degree, Crick's and Mercilus') come from JJ Watt being double teamed. Not that these guys can't perform well without JJ Watt, but he makes it significantly easier for them to do so.
 
thunderkyss said:
I'm just the messenger. If you want to win in Indy, Jj Watt's going to have to play like the MVP. Luck's going to have to have a very, very bad game.
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but to say that JJ is not changing games?
 
JB said:
but to say that JJ is not changing games?
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Against the Bills... c'mon.

If he can harrass Luck or Flacco the way he scares the bejeebus out of Ej Manuel or a gimpy RGIII, then he'll earn an MVP discussion. As is, Romo, Luck, even Eli had his way with our defense.
 
Arguing that a QB is more valuable is counter-intuitive, if you think about it. What you're basically saying is any good QB (not even great) is more valuable than a guy that is doing things no other defensive player has ever done. So Philip Rivers or Matt Ryan or similar is more deserving of MVP votes than JJ Watt. The underlying premise to that line of thought, whether you realize it or not, is that QBs are more valuable because they affect the game much more directly. They do that because the rules have been altered to make that the case. Which means any QB can affect the game much more directly than any defensive player. Therefore, nothing any QB does is special. Even the greatest ones are only exploiting the advantages provided to them by the rules.

JJ Watt, on the other hand, says fk the rules. He gets held, he gets double teamed (often with a third chip), he gets called for penalties for hitting the QB, he gets fined, and he suffers the detriment of playing in a system that facilitates QBs getting the ball out to any number of receivers very quickly, because those receivers can't be impeded in any way, or really even tackled hard until they've secured the ball. All this, and he still wrecks opponents' offensive game plans. he keeps offensive coordinators and QBs busy all week. He keeps OLmen up at night. And he is so much better than his contemporaries that it's ridiculous. The best QBs in the game are only moderately better than their "good" contemporaries. I mean, how much better is Aaron Rodgers than Philip Rivers? Better, for sure, but not by the type of margin of dominance that Watt has established over his contemporaries.

The argument that a QB affects games more directly and is therefore more deserving of the MVP award is lazy and not intellectually sound.
 
thunderkyss said:
Against the Bills... c'mon.

If he can harrass Luck or Flacco the way he scares the bejeebus out of Ej Manuel or a gimpy RGIII, then he'll earn an MVP discussion. As is, Romo, Luck, even Eli had his way with our defense.
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So he didn't overcome a shitty offense in those games and couldn't erase the crappy play of 10 others on defense.

But you can't tell me he didn't make an impact in those games

No one, not even Rodgers can overcome suck by 21 other guys
 
JB said:
So he didn't overcome a shitty offense in those games and couldn't erase the crappy play of 10 others on defense.

But you can't tell me he didn't make an impact in those games

No one, not even Rodgers can overcome suck by 21 other guys
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You're right. I guess I just look at it differently.

Aaron Rodgers has the 19th rushing attack in the league & the 25th ranked defense (15th in points). But Jj has to overcome the suck of 21 other guys.

What was I thinking.
 
thunderkyss said:
You're right. I guess I just look at it differently.

Aaron Rodgers has the 19th rushing attack in the league & the 25th ranked defense (15th in points). But Jj has to overcome the suck of 21 other guys.

What was I thinking.
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It's a league geared for offense. It's a lot easier for a QB to make an impact than a defensive player. I'm not disagreeing with everything you say, only that JJ doesn't change games. He's made a significant impact on every game we've played this year.

What do you think our record would be without him? I'm guessing 1-11 maybe

edit: I know you're just stirring the pot TK :chef: Don't know why I keep falling for it
 
JB said:
edit: I know you're just stirring the pot TK :chef: Don't know why I keep falling for it
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I know I've got a bit of a rep for stirring the pot.

But the point is to win games. Our fans are saying that we'd be lucky to get to 8-8 this year, but we've got the best defensive player in the league....

Arian Foster is 6th in yards after missing three games.

DeAndre Hopkins is 9th in yards & he isn't even our best WR (arguable sure).

We're 13th in scoring, offensively....

We should expect to finish (& should have the whole time, at least since week 4) 9-7 or better.

If anyone wants Jj to be the MVP, then we need to finish strong, get to the play offs & make some noise. It would really, really help if he helps to keep Luck & Flacco from scoring 30 points on us.
 
thunderkyss said:
I know I've got a bit of a rep for stirring the pot.


If anyone wants Jj to be the MVP, then we need to finish strong, get to the play offs & make some noise. It would really, really help if he helps to keep Luck & Flacco from scoring 30 points on us.
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Agreed

But the talk that JJ should be MVP is national, not just us Texan fans
 
thunderkyss said:
I know I've got a bit of a rep for stirring the pot.

But the point is to win games. Our fans are saying that we'd be lucky to get to 8-8 this year, but we've got the best defensive player in the league....

Arian Foster is 6th in yards after missing three games.

DeAndre Hopkins is 9th in yards & he isn't even our best WR (arguable sure).

We're 13th in scoring, offensively....

We should expect to finish (& should have the whole time, at least since week 4) 9-7 or better.

If anyone wants Jj to be the MVP, then we need to finish strong, get to the play offs & make some noise. It would really, really help if he helps to keep Luck & Flacco from scoring 30 points on us.
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If you're going to judge MVP based on wins, then how was Carson Palmer not really ever in serious conversations about the award? Drew Stanton isn't really kicking butt and taking names, so obviously Carson Palmer was a large part of the reason the Cards were tearing it up.

I looked for an eyeroll smiley and didn't see one, am I blind?
 
majestrate said:
If you're going to judge MVP based on wins, then how was Carson Palmer not really ever in serious conversations about the award? Drew Stanton isn't really kicking butt and taking names, so obviously Carson Palmer was a large part of the reason the Cards were tearing it up.

I looked for an eyeroll smiley and didn't see one, am I blind?
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Why wasn't Schaub in the conversation at 11-1?
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...rodgers-andrew-luck-jj-watt-headline-mvp-race

THIS is the problem with the award. gil brandt has 6 quarterbacks listed in a discussion of MVP candidates. in order he has watt 3rd behind rodgers and andrew luck. i'm betting that's what a lot of writers have their boards looking like. sure rodgers is having a great season - almost as good as his 2011 year, slightly better than the run nick foles went on last year and not as good as peyton manning breaking records last year. is simply having a good year the end all of the discussion?

fine, leave watt third for the moment. can you tell me that the only players in the NFL that are playing well are quarterbacks? romo and phillip rivers round out the list ... they're playing so well that no other position player matters? romo's not even the best offensive player on his team this year. this year might be river's 5th best season of his career. that's what it takes to be part of the award discussion? a top 15 quarterback in the league having his 5th personal best season?

the quarterbacks have an award for the position, and they're already favorites for offensive player of the year. the playing field needs to be evened in these discussions to recognize players who are having individually significant seasons regardless of position or team standing.
 
eriadoc said:
Arguing that a QB is more valuable is counter-intuitive, if you think about it. What you're basically saying is any good QB (not even great) is more valuable than a guy that is doing things no other defensive player has ever done. So Philip Rivers or Matt Ryan or similar is more deserving of MVP votes than JJ Watt. The underlying premise to that line of thought, whether you realize it or not, is that QBs are more valuable because they affect the game much more directly. They do that because the rules have been altered to make that the case. Which means any QB can affect the game much more directly than any defensive player. Therefore, nothing any QB does is special. Even the greatest ones are only exploiting the advantages provided to them by the rules.

JJ Watt, on the other hand, says fk the rules. He gets held, he gets double teamed (often with a third chip), he gets called for penalties for hitting the QB, he gets fined, and he suffers the detriment of playing in a system that facilitates QBs getting the ball out to any number of receivers very quickly, because those receivers can't be impeded in any way, or really even tackled hard until they've secured the ball. All this, and he still wrecks opponents' offensive game plans. he keeps offensive coordinators and QBs busy all week. He keeps OLmen up at night. And he is so much better than his contemporaries that it's ridiculous. The best QBs in the game are only moderately better than their "good" contemporaries. I mean, how much better is Aaron Rodgers than Philip Rivers? Better, for sure, but not by the type of margin of dominance that Watt has established over his contemporaries.

The argument that a QB affects games more directly and is therefore more deserving of the MVP award is lazy and not intellectually sound.
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Excellent points.

I'm starting to think they should just eliminate the MVP and only have DPOY and OPOY. It's a joke of a system when a league that has rules so geared to favor QBs/offense acts like the MVP award is available for all players. It's clearly not, and acting like it is just makes it pointless and stupid Kabuki theater routine.

They should either grade the positions according to scale, or, just say it's another version of the OPOY award and goes to either QBs or RBs having 2000 yard seasons.

Rodgers would have to be on pace for a 6,000 yard season to compare to what J.J. is doing this season.
 
JJ Watt isn't changing games now?

Jesus. TK, your "even-keel" "fair" gimmick is stupid as hell. Jesus Christ what a dumb thing to say.

I haven't seen one defensive player directly change the outcome of MULTIPLE games as much as JJ Watt has. Holy ****.

You say Watt needs to do it in Indy. He already did. In 2011. And was rewarded with bullshit call after bullshit call on the final drive which ended up being one of the worst reffed sporting events I ever watched, which gave the Colts the win.
 
U think Jj watt would have, the, same, or less or more of success if he was drafted right by the other teams that skipped on him like

Buffalo
Jags
Titans
Vikings
Atlanta
Cincy
Dallas

I couldn't image Jj in a, jags helmet since they took Blaine Gabbert over him he would have gotten even less help over there then here and he has gotten minimal help here has, is lol
 
SIX of the EIGHT 5,000 yard passing seasons have come within the last 3 years. And 10 of the top 13 highest passing yards in a single season has been in the last 3 years. Ho-hum, damn good QBs throw for 5,000 yards.

And for Aaron Rodgers? Not only is he NOT on pace to hit the 5,000 yard mark, he's not even on pace to beat Matt Schaub's career high of 4,770. Yeah, his 32/3 TD/INT ratio is awesome, but it always is. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the game. But that's only replacing the 55/10 Manning put up last year, or the 36/4 Brady put up before that. It's all been done. Same stats, different QB every year.

But do you know what all of these pass happy, gunslinging, record TD throwing QBs we have now aren't doing? They aren't even coming close to the TD% records of QB's in the 40's. Yeah, I know, different game and all, a LOT more passing now, but hey, if these QBs are all that and have the rules they do, shouldn't every damn pass they throw be a TD? And then, just about every time I turn around it seems, JJ Watt is getting mentioned as being the 1st to do something since the 40's.

What JJ Watt is doing hasn't been done. Not with the way the rules are so unfavorable towards defense. It's never been done. LT, Reggie White, Alan Page, none of those guys had to play with the pansy ass protect the offense rules we have now. And Watt doesn't have a Jim Marshall or Gary Larsen like Page did, or a Leonard Marshall and Harry Carson like LT did. Watt has no one.

If Aaron Rodgers were on the Texans, they would NOT be sitting at 9-3 right now because of Rodgers. They'd probably be 12-0 because of JJ Watt.
 
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They need to just handout two awards really. The MVP and the MOP,most outstanding player award because in this day and age, qbs will win the mvp award almost every time and if not, it will surely be an offensive player.
 
kingtexan said:
They should use the "if you had the first pick in the draft" question to decide.

First pick, and Rodgers, Brady, Manning, and Watt are there.

Who do you take?

Defense wins championships baby, I go with Corn-Fed Jesus ...
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That would be an easy choice. Pick Watt and you have two of the other three to pick from while the other side has to keep one on the bench.
 
Marshall said:
That would be an easy choice. Pick Watt and you have two of the other three to pick from while the other side has to keep one on the bench.
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great question by king that marshall hit out of the park.

there are 10 or more quarterbacks i could win a superbowl with ... ben and eli have 2 each. end conversation.

every other position? not even a discussion who's the #1 overall choice.
 
to follow the previous thought, I add on with a bit of 80 proof - so take it as is.

as a gaming generation, most of us have literally played out this scenario repeatedly on consoles and PC's through fantasy drafts. who did you take? i took champ bailey or ray lewis or brian urlacher or jj watt. second round followed the same route. most importantly is that in the first 3-4 rounds i drafted an anchor at each level on defense. why? because if i built a big enough defense, and smartly assembled a cohesive offensive line, i could win with a middle tier quarterback, or survive until a better quarterback became available.

that's exactly the route i'd take if i were tasked to build an NFL team.
 
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No way I'd take Watt over Rodgers, & if they weren't so close to 40, I wouldn't pick Watt over Manning or Brady either, that's just crazy talk.

This guy sees it the same way I do.

His path to winning the MVP requires a dominant final four weeks of the year. All of the following needs to happen:

The Texans need to win the AFC South.
Watt needs to get to 20 sacks.
He needs to tie or set the record for touchdowns by a defensive player.
The top offensive candidates need to cancel each other out.
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We can get all upset about what the award is, & argue about what it's supposed to be, but the fact remains & we all know it..... this is a QB driven league.

stingray said:
They need to just handout two awards really. The MVP and the MOP,most outstanding player award because in this day and age, qbs will win the mvp award almost every time and if not, it will surely be an offensive player.
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I'd have no problem voting for Watt as the most outstanding player... though right now, it's a close race between him & Demarco Murray. Yeah, I know there's a list of RBs who've hit the 2000 mark & Murray more than likely comes up short. But, to do it in a QB driven league is still pretty outstanding.
 
I love watching JJ Watt play football. I've seen great defensive linemen. Alan Page. Joe Green. Randy White. Lee Roy Selmon. Howie Long. Bruce Smith. Reggie White. Watt is playing at a level above anything I've seen.

But...this is a QB driven league. The rules are designed for the QB to pass the ball effectively. A good QB can impact a game. A great QB can dominate a game. Even a mediocre QB can, on a career day. That is the nature of the NFL that we witness today.

So yes, Watt is doing things that have never been done before. And yes, there are QBs that are more valuable than JJ Watt.
 
Scooter said:
to follow the previous thought, I add on with a bit of 80 proof - so take it as is.

as a gaming generation, most of us have literally played out this scenario repeatedly on consoles and PC's through fantasy drafts. who did you take?
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I think when I was playing Madden 05 I went into Al Davis mode and drafted the fastest guys in the game and just outran everyone.
 
thunderkyss said:
I'd have no problem voting for Watt as the most outstanding player... though right now, it's a close race between him & Demarco Murray. Yeah, I know there's a list of RBs who've hit the 2000 mark & Murray more than likely comes up short. But, to do it in a QB driven league is still pretty outstanding.
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So a RB hitting 2000 yards in a QB driven league is pretty outstanding, but a DL doing things that no one has ever done before in a QB driven league is second rate?

Lucky said:
But...this is a QB driven league. The rules are designed for the QB to pass the ball effectively. A good QB can impact a game. A great QB can dominate a game. Even a mediocre QB can, on a career day. That is the nature of the NFL that we witness today.
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Rodgers is so valuable to his team that you could literally replace him with at leat 3 or 4 other QBs and that team would be just as good. Who are you going to replace Watt with?

So there's nothing special or even more valuable about one over another, once you're talking about the top 4 or 5 QBs.
 
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