Now to raise the ire of fandoms from New England to Green Bay, and then deep in the heart of Texas: Who deserves this years MVP?
Whoever you pick Im sure will be deserving, Watt told me from Houston. The way I look at it is, Ill worry about what happens on the field. And Ill let all of you worry about the MVP.
Fair enough.
Three more sacks for Watt on Sunday. His production is insane. Since he entered the league in 2011, his 51 sacks lead the NFL. Thats pretty heady stuff for a 3-4 defensive end who plays different spots on the line and often has to fight through double-teams of 300-plus-pound linemen. He has 148 quarterback hits over that time, the most in football by far, and his 36 passes deflected or batted down are double anyone in football during that span.
For this year alone: Justin Houston and Elvis Dumervil are tied for the league lead with 16 sacks. Watt is next with 14.5. But using the numbers of the redoubtable Pro Football Focus database for quarterback hits and pressures, you can see where Watt distances himself from the pack of the leading sackers in the NFL through 13 games. The sacks are updated through 13 games, hits and pressures through 12:
Code:
Player, Team Sacks Hits Pressures Total QB disruptions
J.J. Watt, Houston 14.5 33 35 82.5
Von Miller, Denver 13 11 40 64.0
Justin Houston, Kansas City 16 6 41 63.0
Connor Barwin, Philadelphia 13.5 7 25 45.5
Elvis Dumervil, Baltimore 16 6 21 43.0
So do we really have to establish some sort of Greatness Quotient?
If all positions were created equal, J.J. Watts the best player in football by a mile, and it isnt close, said Neil Hornsby, the founder of Pro Football Focus, which judges every player on every snap.
Aaron Schatz, the president of the long-running football analytics group Football Outsiders, agreed:
Watt is by far the best player as his position compared to the average of his position.
In many ways, Watts season is historic. He has scored five touchdowns, the first defensive lineman to have that many since 1944. Three have come as a tight end moonlighting on offense, one of them a diving circus catch. Against Buffalo in September he hit quarterback E.J. Manuel nine times and returned a nifty interception 80 yards for a touchdown. And on and on.
[IMGwidthsize=600]http://simmqb.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/jj-watt-giants-sb.jpg[/IMG]
Theres also the dedication that, even in this era of players dedicated to greatness, seems put on. Except the scars would show after a while, and they havent shown on Watt yet. In training camp I asked him about how he continued to strive to be better. Watt said:
I heard a quote that says, Success isnt owned. Its leased. And rent is due every day. Every single day, someones coming for your job. Someones coming for your greatness. If youre the greatest, someone wants to be the greatest, and so if youre not constantly improving your game, somebody else is. And somebody wants to take your spot. So the way I attack it, every single day is like a game. Every single practice rep I treat like a game rep. I get pissed if I get blocked
Some people chase money. Some people chase fame. Some chase greatness. And thats what Im trying to do.
You want the guy to be a legit MVP candidate, dont you?
So then the question becomes whether we can logically judge whether a defensive lineman can be as valuable to his team as a quarterback can be. In an ideal world, football would have a stat similar to WAR in baseballWins Above Replacement. In other words, if an average player would replace the star for a season, what would be the difference in the number of wins a team would have by seasons end?
We dont have a WAR-type stat that compares players across positions, Schatz said. Its too hard, given we cant fully separate a players performance from his teammates. So then it comes down to the judgment of 50 people: Can a defensive end possibly mean as much to his team as, say, an Aaron Rodgers, who can put a touchdown on the board every time he possesses the ball? Probably not.
Then theres the matter of Houston being a middle-of-the-pack team. The Texans are 7-6. They are seventh in the league in scoring defense, 27th in the league in yards allowed (a wide disparity). This doesnt help Watt. MVPs most often come from the offensive side of the field, and from playoff teams. The last 17 MVPs have come from teams that won 10 or more games. No defensive player has won the award since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, and no MVP since 1973 (O.J. Simpson, who rushed for 2,003 yards that year) has played on a team that didnt make the playoffs. It would be hard enough for a defensive player to win the award, of course. But on a mediocre team it would be doubly hard.
Thats the case particularly because were in the golden age of quarterbacks, and so many of them are playing so well at the position of most influence in football.
Doesnt the MVP always have to be a quarterback simply by virtue of how the game is played [today]? asked Schatz. Possibly, but Adrian Peterson, in his 2,096-yard season two years ago, lifted the Vikings into the playoffs with mediocrity all over the roster, and he edged Peyton Manning that year.
Thats for people like you to decide, not me, he said. I cant change any voters minds, and I dont think I should try. I dont care, actually. It doesnt matter to me. Its an award. If people vote for me, great. But to politic for it, no. Please vote for me? No. People who play dont get to decide who wins, nor should they. I want to be deserving, but not because I politicked for it. My play on the field is all that should matter. Nothing else.
Sounds like Watt.
The AP asks for one winner. (Im on record as wishing we voted as in baseball, 1 through 10, so we could see how close the vote really is. If you have to pick one, even in a very close vote, it often doesnt mirror the closeness of the contest.) Three weeks from the end of the season, here is my standing of the top five:
- Aaron Rodgers, quarterback, Green Bay
- J.J. Watt, defensive end, Houston
- Tom Brady, quarterback, New England
- DeMarco Murray, running back, Dallas
- Peyton Manning, quarterback, Denver
May the best man win. It probably wont be Watt, but Im hoping for a contest.