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What's wrong with Watson?
- Thread starter LikeMike
- Start date
The 10 mil McNair saved appears to be the reason for the deal. Signing a couple of bargain bin FA's doesn't really change that.
I mean if you were a businessman would you trade a 2nd rd pick and getting rid of Os. I'm sure Bob/Ricky McNair consider this a win-win. Is this trade good for the on field product? Nope
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
It was one of the dumbest things this franchise has done in its history and that says a lot. They just pissed away a 2nd round draft pick when they could have just cut Oz or kept him for one more season and let him compete and kept him for depth.
The 2nd rounder to take Osweiler was a deal unto itself. There was no way to know at the time that Watson would be available at 12 or if Cleveland would want to deal or if they would still be at 12 until they were on the clock. Just fans overthinking this stuff.
gs27
Veteran
We traded a 2nd round pick to the Browns to free up the $16 million of salary that Brock was guaranteed for 2017. The cap is fluid so that $16 million of cap space can be carried over into future years. It was a beneficial trade for both teams and one that only the Browns would be willing to take because they are so far below the minimum cap that they need to burn extra cap. $16M > 2nd Rd pick. $21 million ($16m + $5m contract for 2nd round pick) for a 4 year FA on the average gets you a better return than a 2nd round pick.
IMO, Rick Smith is a very talented GM with trades, the cap, and player evaluations along with treating his employees very well. If he ever gets to be a GM for a team where the owner doesn't set ultimatums to keep fans happy, he would be even better.
I was not high on Watson based on velocity and placement, but you can't deny his incredible intangibles and passion for the game. I will give Smith the benefit of the doubt if he and BOB agreed on Watson. The Texans are the only team in the league with their last 10 1st round picks on their roster, hopefully that trend continues with Watson. Brock was not coveted by Smith and/or BOB, McNair told Smith to go get Osweiler and Smith made it happen, that should not cloud our opinion of their decision to pick Watson.
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
I don't think I've ever heard anyone suggesting something so hilarious except for those first 4 or 5 years when Kubiak was here. Dude won't ever get another GM job after the Texans if he is ever fired here. Not sure Bob will ever let go of him.
gs27
Veteran
Glad you find me hilarious. Don't know what you consider upper management but I am a director of structural engineering with P&L responsibilities for a large company.
We can disagree on our opinions of people in the organization, but my guess is since your argument went immediately to insults that you can't argue any substance against my analysis of the trade value. Do you think that you are more likely to get a better player with a mid to late 2nd round pick than you are with a FA you could sign for 4 years, $21 million dollar contract next year?
I don't think either of those scenarios are necessarily more or less likely than the other.
Ricky 2-14
What is the value in trading away a 2nd rd pick for nothing? I guess it's 10 mil
As far as draft vs fa, the Texans don't really try to participate in fa. So I would venture to say that the draft would be more important. Really the constant is the Texans do things that make them the most $$$$ as possible. In that regard Ricky has been very successful. Watson is a big part of that.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
There is a good chance any draft pick strikes out in the NFL, at least with a FA, they have proven they can play in the NFL.
I believe that would be the argument that is being made in the FA vs 2nd round pick comparison.
And I believe enough fa's strike out with their new teams, regardless of how successful they were with whatever team prior, to say confidently that neither route (fa or 2nd rnd pick) is necessarily more or less fool proof than the other.
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You need to have a mixture of FA/Draft hits to have a truly successful team.
Look at the last 2 SB Champs as a template. Denver/Pats.
Look at the last 2 SB Champs as a template. Denver/Pats.
WTF ever.
Signed,
Matt Flynn and a bunch of ex-Patriot QBs and Brock fricking Osweiler.
Flyingfish
Waterboy
DocBar, you may now proceed to drop the mike.
What makes either the draft or free agency work are the guys doing the selecting. Wherever your 'ingredients' come from you have to do enough pre-selection homework to make sure they are a good (to great) fit for your system. Kubiak was good at that from an offensive viewpoint. Defensively...? Not so much.
Belichick does this better than anyone else in today's NFL. The Pats traded their 1st rd pick to the Saints for Brandin Cooks (2300 yds/17 TDs over the past two years). In fact, this draft Belichick turned four picks into veteran players like Dwayne Allen, Mike Gillislee, and Kony Ealy in addition to Cooks. Then, with their remaining 2017 picks they picked up two OT and two DEs.
Belichick doesn't make a move unless he pretty sure his targeted guy is a fit for his system.
All that to say, knowing a guy is as a for-sure fit on your team (at least as well as you can know such things), is waaaay more important than how you signed him.
If you don't see a fit for your team in free agency, you don't sign folks just to get a free agent participation trophy.
Belichick does this better than anyone else in today's NFL. The Pats traded their 1st rd pick to the Saints for Brandin Cooks (2300 yds/17 TDs over the past two years). In fact, this draft Belichick turned four picks into veteran players like Dwayne Allen, Mike Gillislee, and Kony Ealy in addition to Cooks. Then, with their remaining 2017 picks they picked up two OT and two DEs.
Belichick doesn't make a move unless he pretty sure his targeted guy is a fit for his system.
All that to say, knowing a guy is as a for-sure fit on your team (at least as well as you can know such things), is waaaay more important than how you signed him.
If you don't see a fit for your team in free agency, you don't sign folks just to get a free agent participation trophy.
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
What makes either the draft or free agency work are the guys doing the selecting. Wherever your 'ingredients' come from you have to do enough pre-selection homework to make sure they are a good (to great) fit for your system. Kubiak was good at that from an offensive viewpoint. Defensively...? Not so much.
Belichick does this better than anyone else in today's NFL. The Pats traded their 1st rd pick to the Saints for Brandin Cooks (2300 yds/17 TDs over the past two years). In fact, this draft Belichick turned four picks into veteran players like Dwayne Allen, Mike Gillislee, and Kony Ealy in addition to Cooks. Then, with their remaining 2017 picks they picked up two OT and two DEs.
Belichick doesn't make a move unless he pretty sure his targeted guy is a fit for his system.
All that to say, knowing a guy is as a for-sure fit on your team (at least as well as you can know such things), is waaaay more important than how you signed him.
If you don't see a fit for your team in free agency, you don't sign folks just to get a free agent participation trophy.
Damn, for once I can fully agree with you. Great post man.
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
Not accurate. Those Patriot QB's never really had much playing time, and none of them did much in pre season or in game time when they had their opportunities other than Cassel. And Cassel had a very good season with the Chiefs one year under Todd Haley. Hoyer had already been on other teams and not played that well when we got him. Matt Flynn had like two games of playing time against terrible defenses at the end of the season. The Hawks contract was a ridiculous one and even more ridiculous that the Raiders traded for him. That was the Raiders though.
I don't think that Kiwi was referring to FA's that barely had any playing time either way. Very convenient of you to cherry pick a few QB's that almost never saw the field. I could name examples for days of FA's that played well once other teams picked them up if they were put in the right situations with systems that favored their skill set.
It was all Jeff Fisher's fault. He should have just let "Vince be Vince".
Okay, I couldn't type that with a straight face. I just couldn't resist. Memories of Shaggybevo.com.
LOL
the Earth will start spinning backwards in 3... 2... 1...
edromeo
Rookie
I think the negative talk about his 'reads' or the spread offense fall into the category of empty draft media rhetoric. It consider it empty because all the QBs in this draft come from spread offense and the Mahomes, Webb comes from the air raid version of the spread where the reads are different then NFL reads because of the wide splits and formations. Trubs offensive is more involved the air-raid spread but its not anywhere close to 'pro-style'.
When you really look at Clemson's offense, which is based on Auburn's offense with Cam Newton.
There are certainly NFL concepts and NFL reads. If there is interest in this I can post some it. But its out there to look up.
Currently Watson is clocked at 53.5 according to sports science which puts him about NFL average on par with Sam Bradford. AND Watson can tweak his mechanics and get stronger to increase his arm strength.LikeMike said:
I have Watson as the top QB in this draft class. I only have 2 concerns with Watson.LikeMike said:
The first concern is the interceptions. He had too many batted ball interceptions. And he had too many decision making interceptions. Both of those can be improved. The decision making interceptions are imho a by product of one of his strengths...his decisiveness and confidence. Some of his interceptions came because he got tricked by a disguised coverages that give him a look that gave him a false read and the ball was on its way before he could tell otherwise.
My other concern is more about the situation then him. Was O'Brien 100% on board with getting Watson or is he vested in seeing how Savage plays out in system he already knows?
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
The thing about his interceptions to me is the situations in which he throws them. He threw 26 TDs and 12 interceptions when his team was in the lead, but 15 TDs and 5 interceptions when tied or losing. He threw 31 TDs and 15 interceptions in the first 3 quarters, but 9 TDs and 2 interceptions in the 4th.
So he threw most of his interceptions when he was ahead at the beginning of games trying to extend his lead. He has to clean these interceptions up but I'd be more worried about it if he was throwing them at the ends of games in crunch time.
But that's just me trying to put a positive spin on a definite flaw.
I don't think throwing interceptions is innate. Being in an offense where he threw it around so much probably had a lot to do with it.
Most likely O'b can teach him a thing or two to make it easier to make better decisions. & if he and Hop get on the same page early, that's going to help Watson even more.
To me. The big thing is going to be the run game. If we can win more often than not on first down... & get a lot better than we were in short yardage situations, he won't have to throw the ball 35~40 times a game. & that's going to help Watson
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Last year, Watson had the benefit of an excellent OL and a RB corp that supplied him with close to 2000 yds at close to 5 yds/carry.
I hope O'b can do some of that coaching stuff & make Watson a better player than he currently is.
From everything I've seen, that OL was much better at run blocking that pass pro. Watson was scrambling around most of the time.
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
I don't agree with this. He scrambled at times, but not nearly most of the time. Most of the time he made a throw from within the pocket or he was on a designed run.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Last year, in addition to the OL, Clemson's RB Wayne Gallman was one of Watson's fiercest pass protectors.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Again, I think way too much is being made of the interceptions. Watson had the same career INT% as Tom Brady (2.6%). But because Watson was in an offense that threw the ball more, Watson had nearly double the pass attempts Brady had, thus double the INTs (32-17).
Matt Ryan's collegiate INT% was 2.7% and 2.9% in his senior season. Watson was 2.9 last year as well.
And before somebody comes back with TTU slung the ball around the yard and Mahomes INT% was just 2.1%, Case Keenum did too and he had a 2.0 INT%.
Your college numbers just don't mean much when it comes to the next level. It's all going to come down to the kid being coached right, the situation around him and how quickly he can learn a new game. That's why Cleveland can never find a QB. Their situation is always horrible and these high rated college QBs that go there don't get the coaching and can't learn the game.
Matt Ryan's collegiate INT% was 2.7% and 2.9% in his senior season. Watson was 2.9 last year as well.
And before somebody comes back with TTU slung the ball around the yard and Mahomes INT% was just 2.1%, Case Keenum did too and he had a 2.0 INT%.
Your college numbers just don't mean much when it comes to the next level. It's all going to come down to the kid being coached right, the situation around him and how quickly he can learn a new game. That's why Cleveland can never find a QB. Their situation is always horrible and these high rated college QBs that go there don't get the coaching and can't learn the game.
TheRealJoker
Hall of Fame
Per LZ's draft profile
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/wayne-gallman?id=2557952
WEAKNESSES
Leggy, long-strider. Unable to make sharp, sudden cuts in tight quarters. Extended gear down could cause NFL holes to close on him. Vision becomes restricted when running between tackles. Gives away three sure yards searching along riskier lanes. Lacks finesse in his game. Has bull in china shop running style between tackles. Upright in approach to line of scrimmage. Will allow tacklers under his pads too often. Gets impatient and won't always keep the track behind lead blocker. Below average balance. Can be upended by shoe-string attempts. Not ready for NFL pass protection duties yet.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
More in line with my observations.:
2016 Clemson Football Running Back Participation
by Brian_Goodison Mar 13, 2017, 7:20am EDT
There is no way around it: Wayne Gallman is leaving a big hole in Clemson’s RB corps. After the 2015 season, Clemson didn’t have to worry too much about the running game with Gallman returning. His experience and ability to pass protect meant Clemson would be in good shape for the 2016 season. 2017 will be a different story.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
PFF: Wayne Gallman is unsung hero of Clemson’s offense
One area he clearly excelled at in comparison to the likes of Cook, Fournette and even Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey is pass blocking. He took 181 reps in pass protection (third-most in FBS) and yielded just 6 hurries (with no sacks or hits given up), ranking him fourth among returning backs in pass blocking efficiency. This is an impressive feat considering he was just a sophomore, and a marked improvement over his three sacks, two hits and three hurries yielded on just 87 reps as a freshman.
His film in pass protection is even more impressive than the analytics show, as he clearly has a strong understanding of his assignments, and utilizes a variety of techniques to win at the point of attack and keep Watson clean.
*******************
I certainly agree, there are conflicting reports of his pass protection abilities, which did not come into question until last season.
One area he clearly excelled at in comparison to the likes of Cook, Fournette and even Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey is pass blocking. He took 181 reps in pass protection (third-most in FBS) and yielded just 6 hurries (with no sacks or hits given up), ranking him fourth among returning backs in pass blocking efficiency. This is an impressive feat considering he was just a sophomore, and a marked improvement over his three sacks, two hits and three hurries yielded on just 87 reps as a freshman.
His film in pass protection is even more impressive than the analytics show, as he clearly has a strong understanding of his assignments, and utilizes a variety of techniques to win at the point of attack and keep Watson clean.
*******************
I certainly agree, there are conflicting reports of his pass protection abilities, which did not come into question until last season.
Texian
Hall of Fame
Agree, I like Lance but he has way to much going on, juggling to many balls in the air to be a serious evaluator of talent.
I'm with CnnD.
Watson sux. We need to run his ass out of town right now.
Watson sux. We need to run his ass out of town right now.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Where the heck have you deduced that? The only thing that anyone can conclude from my posts is that I need to see what Watson is able to do in the NFL, as there is path littered with star college QBs that turned out to be something less that stellar once placed under center in the NFL. Be assured, any bubbles burst will not be by what I or any other fan posts, it will only occur if Watson doesn't perform as ALL of us hope he will if/when his opportunity arises.
Texansphan
Football connoisseur
Coaching is key to any QB.
I honestly don't think Brady would have been Brady without Belichek.
Texansballer74
The Marine
Texansballer74
The Marine
I get the narrative of you feeling like this towards every player going into the NFL. Or is it just Watson?
edromeo
Rookie
Why do you think Clemson's OL was excellent? I don't recall Clemson having 1 draftable OL.
A lot of credit for Clemson's low sack numbers belongs to Watson's ability to throw the ball quickly and his ability to avoid sacks.
edromeo
Rookie
Good info...I didn't realize the context for when he threw his interceptions. But I agree with you that IF a QB is gonna to throw a pickle I would prefer it early in games. I think some of those early interceptions are from recklessness/aggressiveness with the ball early in the game.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
This is about Watson that we are speaking of now. You seem to be skewed widely to the polar opposite side of fence. And that's OK with me. I don't tend to carry pom poms for any players just entering the NFL until they prove themselves against NFL competition. If anyone has a problem with that, I can certainly handle that.
Texansballer74
The Marine
It was just a question and observation. So there is no need to get caught up in your feelings.
Of course these players have to prove themselves. Even some of these vets still have prove themselves every year.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
That could be because 4 of Clemson's 5 offensive linemen from 2016 are returning this year.
I have to give up if you want to believe that Watson was a one man wrecking crew,and ignore that his offensive line held up their own at a high level.
2016 NCAA OFFENSIVE LINE STATS
edromeo
Rookie
I asked you why you thought Clemson's OL was excellent.
So again I ask why you think Clemson's OL was excellent?
From the link you provided these are Clemson's OL rushing metrics:
Stuffed run rate: 47th
Power success: 95th
Opportunity rate: 50th
Pass downs: 25th
Standard downs: 50th
I would agree with you that they are a good pass protection UNIT. But, like I was saying before pass protection is very much linked to the QB. A QB is a key if not thee key to having a good pass protection unit. Or do you disagree that the QB plays a key part in pass protection? Or do you disagree that Watson was good in those regards?
https://www.profootballfocus.com/co...win-a-second-straight-national-title-clemson/PFF said:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-3-stats-that-define-deshaun-watsons-game/PFF said:
TLDR: Clemson had a decent run blocking OL. Clemson was very good in pass protection. But Watson wasn't merely a beneficiary of it he was a major cause that lead to the Clemson OL's pass protection efficiency.
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TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
That is interesting. Clemson under Dabo has been ruthless. They never stop attacking you, it's one of the reasons they've been so successful. They don't really believe in letting up. This goes back before Watson. Maybe, that's part of it. Maybe not. More likely he just got careless in specific situations.
Having an explosive rushing attack, (which Watson was a large part of) certainly helped with that. That entire offense was pretty dominating
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
The 'average' NFL quarterback has changed dramatically
Jan 20, 2016
As some fret about the state of the quarterback position in the NFL, passing continues to become a bigger part of the game with each season. Consider: 2015 saw the league set records for completions, attempts, completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns while simultaneously posting the lowest interception rate in league history; 61.5 percent of plays from scrimmage were of the passing variety in 2015, and that doesn't even include scrambles on would-be passes. That, too, is a league record.
It's easy to gain a sense of how good and bad relative passers look if you focus on the extremes. It's hard to imagine anybody playing the position in the history of football as well as Aaron Rodgers has during his peak over the past few years. The numbers for legends like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have been unprecedented during their peak seasons. On the flipside, the disastrous returns of starting somebody like Johnny Manziel or Matt Cassel are as obvious and familiar as ever. When you're on the bottom end, you're the one lamenting how there just aren't enough quarterbacks; when the incredible quarterbacks look so great, the stragglers at the bottom look even worse than they have before.
The best baseline for quarterback play, though, is looking at the average passer. It's one thing to try to figure out what an average quarterback looks like among passers in 2015, but it's even tougher to put into context with other quarterbacks from the past. It's also a valuable piece of information to have when evaluating whether your favorite team has somebody it should be happy with or a passer it should attempt to improve upon in the years to come.
So let's run through some key categories and put "average" into context. There are a few statistics for which we don't have historical data. One is QBR; the 16th-best passer by QBR this year was Tennessee's Marcus Mariota, at 61.0. QBR is a rate statistic; in terms of cumulative impact, the 16th-best passer by Expected Points Added (EPA) was Jay Cutler of the Bears. The average quarterback throws his typical pass 8.26 yards in the air (Ryan Tannehill) and gets 5.38 yards after the catch from his receivers (Derek Carr). And without salary data, here's a good space to note that the 16th-highest paid quarterback in terms of cap hit was Sam Bradford, who was earning $12.8 million from the Eagles. The 16th-highest actual base salary was Robert Griffin's $3.3 million.
For all the other statistical categories, though, there is historical information for comparison. I'll run through each of those metrics below. In each case, I've chosen the 14th-best quarterback from 1985 (from a 28-team league), the 15th-best quarterback from 1995 (from a 30-team league) and the 16th-best quarterback from both 2005 and this past season (with the league at 32 teams). For the rate statistics, I'll only be including qualifying quarterbacks.
Let's start with a simple question of volume and move forward from there:
Attempts
1985: Mike Pagel, Colts (393 attempts)
1995: Dave Brown, Giants (456 attempts)
2005: Aaron Brooks, Saints (431 attempts)
2015: Cam Newton, Panthers (496 attempts)
Our first comparison typifies just how much harder the workload is for quarterbacks these days. Newton is the starting quarterback on a 15-1 team that loves to run the football when things are close, let alone late in blowouts. Even during his likely MVP season this year, Cam has been plastered with the reputation that he doesn't need to throw -- that the Panthers make it easy for him given Newton's supporting cast. That seems bizarre when Newton's No. 1 wideout is comfortably Ted Ginn, but whatever works.
Cam Newton leads an offense that is often characterized as a run-focused attack. Twenty years ago, it would have been pass-happy. Crystal LoGiudice/USA TODAY Sports
Even given those circumstances, Newton throws a lot more than his predecessors (a whopping 26 percent more than Pagel did in 1985, actually). Newton's 496 attempts would have been the fifth-highest total in the league in 1985. Now, it's mundane to throw the ball 31 times per game.
Completion Percentage
1985: Lynn Dickey, Packers (54.8 percent)
1995: Stan Humphries, Chargers (59.0 percent)
2005: Jake Plummer, Broncos (60.7 percent)
2015: Tyrod Taylor, Bills (63.7 percent)
Again, this is an example of a quarterback who isn't regarded as particularly accurate. Taylor completed 57.2 percent of his passes in college and was 19-of-35 in his professional career before catching on with the Bills and winning the starting job in training camp this preseason. Taylor isn't significantly more accurate than passers from the past, but the combination of an intensive screen game and reinforced rules barring defensive backs from disrupting opposing routes have made it easier to complete passes than ever before.
Taylor threw 131 passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage -- which isn't even that many; that was 25th in the league. Eli Manning threw a whopping 275 of those same pass attempts. Kirk Cousins went 202-for-268 on those throws, completing 75.1 percent of his attempts. That was the biggest reason why Cousins led the league in completion percentage (69.1 percent) this year.
The spike in completion percentage is probably the second-biggest difference between quarterbacks of the past and the passers of the present. Taylor's 63.7 percent mark would have led the league by more than two percentage points in 1985.
The guy who led the league at 61.3 percent? Some guy named Montana, whose third wideout that year was a rookie first-rounder out of Mississippi Valley State.
Yards Per Attempt
1985: Ron Jaworski, Eagles (7.1 ypa)
1995: Jeff Hostetler, Raiders (7.0 ypa)
2005: Josh McCown, Cardinals (6.8 ypa)
2015: Matthew Stafford, Lions (7.2 ypa)
There aren't numbers for the typical pass distance in the air for years past, but it's generally accepted that teams are throwing shorter passes than they ever have before. So while teams are getting all kinds of yardage throwing the football, that comes more from volume and increased completion percentage than it does from efficiency.
Yards per attempt is one of the only QB stats that doesn't look almost dramatically different now than it did 30 years ago. Focus on Sport/Getty Images
There's an interesting point to be made here between how the league evaluates skills and actually uses them. Stafford has arguably the league's best arm strength, a howitzer that many teams use as the example when they think about the prototypical quarterback. His average pass traveled 6.4 yards in the air this year, which was 34th in the league. There's nothing wrong with using your Bugatti to run errands within a half-mile of your house -- you will get there faster -- but it does defeat the purpose a little bit.
Sack Rate
1985: Bernie Kosar, Browns (7.1 percent)
1995: Steve Young, 49ers (5.3 percent)
2005: Josh McCown, Cardinals (6.3 percent)
2015: Derek Carr, Raiders (5.1 percent)
The other benefit of throwing shorter passes is that it's harder to get your quarterback sacked; ask the Chiefs how close they ever got to Tom Brady on Saturday. The sort of crazy sack rates from the past are now all but gone. Eight different quarterbacks posted double-digit sack rates in 1985, with Dieter Brock of the Rams at a staggering 12.3 percent. Even in 2005, David Carr -- Derek's brother, of course -- was sacked on 13.8 percent of his dropbacks behind a porous Texans offensive line.
This year, the only quarterback in double digits was Colin Kaepernick, at 10.3 percent in a small sample.
Interception Rate
1985: John Elway, Broncos (3.8 percent)
1995: Vinny Testaverde, Buccaneers (2.6 percent)
2005: Gus Frerotte, Dolphins (2.6 percent)
2015: Kirk Cousins, Washington (2.0 percent)
Here's the biggest difference between quarterbacks of the past and passers today: Interceptions have all but dried up. In the '70s, quarterbacks threw picks on 5.3 percent of their pass attempts. That's down nearly 50 percent by the time we get to this decade, with quarterbacks throwing picks on 2.7 percent of their passes since 2010.
This is where the changes that have occurred to the game over the last 40 years all manifest themselves most obviously. Quarterbacks are getting the ball out quicker and throwing shorter passes with smarter schemes to receivers who can't be covered as tightly for fear of penalties. The old saying about how only three things can happen with a pass and two of them are bad was always dumb, but it's even stupider now, as the league's interception rate draws closer and closer to the rate of lost fumbles on running plays (0.8 percent).
This is a passing league, and that isn't changing.
Touchdown-to-Interception Ratio
1985: Phil Simms, Giants (22 touchdowns, 20 INTs, 1.10 ratio)
1995: Chris Chandler, Oilers (17 touchdowns, 10 INTs, 1.70 ratio)
2005: Steve McNair, Titans (16 touchdowns, 11 INTs, 1.45 ratio)
2015: Philip Rivers, Chargers (29 touchdowns, 13 INTs, 2.23 ratio)
Again, this is an enormous spike driven by the decline in interceptions. What was acceptable 30 years ago -- what seemed effective even 10 years ago -- is fundamentally different now. There were only seven qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL who threw two touchdowns for every pick in 2005. This year, there were 18.
Passer Rating
1985: Eric Hipple, Lions (73.6 rating)
1995: Mark Brunell, Jaguars (82.6 rating)
2005: Donovan McNabb, Eagles (85.0 rating)
2015: Jay Cutler, Bears (92.3 rating)
Let's finish up with the oft-derided passer rating, a stat built for quarterbacks from another era that bears little resemblance to the game we play here in 2015. Passer rating weights touchdowns as nearly as valuable as interceptions, which is obviously insane; a two-yard touchdown pass shouldn't be treated similarly to an interception inside your own 20-yard line, but because people used passer rating long enough, it became a number people vaguely became familiar with.
The scale for passer rating, again, is totally different. In 1985, the worst qualifying quarterback was Vince Ferragamo of the Bills, who posted a 50.5 passer rating. (Fortunately for Bills fans, Jim Kelly showed up the following year.) This year, the worst passer rating in the league was Peyton Manning's 67.9 figure. Nine different quarterbacks, including Cousins, Taylor and Stafford, all posted passer ratings better than Ken O'Brien's league-leading mark of 96.2. What seemed good 30 years ago doesn't remotely apply anymore.
What was great in the past might only be acceptable today.
Look at the players who have come up in the 2015 rankings as an "average" quarterback: Stafford. Cousins. Cutler. Carr. Teams treasure these guys as franchise quarterbacks, either in the process of developing or having fully realized their potential. And in some ways, they are, but how valuable is average? Is it worth Stafford's megadeal, which might have cost the Lions Ndamukong Suh and a realistic shot at managing their cap effectively? Cutler's deal, which the Bears would have dumped for free if they could have last offseason? Or the deal Cousins is about to get from Washington if the two sides can come to terms? What seemed excellent even 20 years ago is mere competence today.
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It's been said by many older veteran players that the modern day QB should be wearing dresses. You can't compare INT rates and TD numbers of older QBs with those of today..............in the face of merciless kill-mentality rushers of the past, the former would naturally be expected to be higher and latter lower.
Jan 20, 2016
- Bill BarnwellESPN Staff Writer
As some fret about the state of the quarterback position in the NFL, passing continues to become a bigger part of the game with each season. Consider: 2015 saw the league set records for completions, attempts, completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns while simultaneously posting the lowest interception rate in league history; 61.5 percent of plays from scrimmage were of the passing variety in 2015, and that doesn't even include scrambles on would-be passes. That, too, is a league record.
It's easy to gain a sense of how good and bad relative passers look if you focus on the extremes. It's hard to imagine anybody playing the position in the history of football as well as Aaron Rodgers has during his peak over the past few years. The numbers for legends like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have been unprecedented during their peak seasons. On the flipside, the disastrous returns of starting somebody like Johnny Manziel or Matt Cassel are as obvious and familiar as ever. When you're on the bottom end, you're the one lamenting how there just aren't enough quarterbacks; when the incredible quarterbacks look so great, the stragglers at the bottom look even worse than they have before.
The best baseline for quarterback play, though, is looking at the average passer. It's one thing to try to figure out what an average quarterback looks like among passers in 2015, but it's even tougher to put into context with other quarterbacks from the past. It's also a valuable piece of information to have when evaluating whether your favorite team has somebody it should be happy with or a passer it should attempt to improve upon in the years to come.
So let's run through some key categories and put "average" into context. There are a few statistics for which we don't have historical data. One is QBR; the 16th-best passer by QBR this year was Tennessee's Marcus Mariota, at 61.0. QBR is a rate statistic; in terms of cumulative impact, the 16th-best passer by Expected Points Added (EPA) was Jay Cutler of the Bears. The average quarterback throws his typical pass 8.26 yards in the air (Ryan Tannehill) and gets 5.38 yards after the catch from his receivers (Derek Carr). And without salary data, here's a good space to note that the 16th-highest paid quarterback in terms of cap hit was Sam Bradford, who was earning $12.8 million from the Eagles. The 16th-highest actual base salary was Robert Griffin's $3.3 million.
For all the other statistical categories, though, there is historical information for comparison. I'll run through each of those metrics below. In each case, I've chosen the 14th-best quarterback from 1985 (from a 28-team league), the 15th-best quarterback from 1995 (from a 30-team league) and the 16th-best quarterback from both 2005 and this past season (with the league at 32 teams). For the rate statistics, I'll only be including qualifying quarterbacks.
Let's start with a simple question of volume and move forward from there:
Attempts
1985: Mike Pagel, Colts (393 attempts)
1995: Dave Brown, Giants (456 attempts)
2005: Aaron Brooks, Saints (431 attempts)
2015: Cam Newton, Panthers (496 attempts)
Our first comparison typifies just how much harder the workload is for quarterbacks these days. Newton is the starting quarterback on a 15-1 team that loves to run the football when things are close, let alone late in blowouts. Even during his likely MVP season this year, Cam has been plastered with the reputation that he doesn't need to throw -- that the Panthers make it easy for him given Newton's supporting cast. That seems bizarre when Newton's No. 1 wideout is comfortably Ted Ginn, but whatever works.
Cam Newton leads an offense that is often characterized as a run-focused attack. Twenty years ago, it would have been pass-happy. Crystal LoGiudice/USA TODAY Sports
Even given those circumstances, Newton throws a lot more than his predecessors (a whopping 26 percent more than Pagel did in 1985, actually). Newton's 496 attempts would have been the fifth-highest total in the league in 1985. Now, it's mundane to throw the ball 31 times per game.
Completion Percentage
1985: Lynn Dickey, Packers (54.8 percent)
1995: Stan Humphries, Chargers (59.0 percent)
2005: Jake Plummer, Broncos (60.7 percent)
2015: Tyrod Taylor, Bills (63.7 percent)
Again, this is an example of a quarterback who isn't regarded as particularly accurate. Taylor completed 57.2 percent of his passes in college and was 19-of-35 in his professional career before catching on with the Bills and winning the starting job in training camp this preseason. Taylor isn't significantly more accurate than passers from the past, but the combination of an intensive screen game and reinforced rules barring defensive backs from disrupting opposing routes have made it easier to complete passes than ever before.
Taylor threw 131 passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage -- which isn't even that many; that was 25th in the league. Eli Manning threw a whopping 275 of those same pass attempts. Kirk Cousins went 202-for-268 on those throws, completing 75.1 percent of his attempts. That was the biggest reason why Cousins led the league in completion percentage (69.1 percent) this year.
The spike in completion percentage is probably the second-biggest difference between quarterbacks of the past and the passers of the present. Taylor's 63.7 percent mark would have led the league by more than two percentage points in 1985.
The guy who led the league at 61.3 percent? Some guy named Montana, whose third wideout that year was a rookie first-rounder out of Mississippi Valley State.
Yards Per Attempt
1985: Ron Jaworski, Eagles (7.1 ypa)
1995: Jeff Hostetler, Raiders (7.0 ypa)
2005: Josh McCown, Cardinals (6.8 ypa)
2015: Matthew Stafford, Lions (7.2 ypa)
There aren't numbers for the typical pass distance in the air for years past, but it's generally accepted that teams are throwing shorter passes than they ever have before. So while teams are getting all kinds of yardage throwing the football, that comes more from volume and increased completion percentage than it does from efficiency.
Yards per attempt is one of the only QB stats that doesn't look almost dramatically different now than it did 30 years ago. Focus on Sport/Getty Images
There's an interesting point to be made here between how the league evaluates skills and actually uses them. Stafford has arguably the league's best arm strength, a howitzer that many teams use as the example when they think about the prototypical quarterback. His average pass traveled 6.4 yards in the air this year, which was 34th in the league. There's nothing wrong with using your Bugatti to run errands within a half-mile of your house -- you will get there faster -- but it does defeat the purpose a little bit.
Sack Rate
1985: Bernie Kosar, Browns (7.1 percent)
1995: Steve Young, 49ers (5.3 percent)
2005: Josh McCown, Cardinals (6.3 percent)
2015: Derek Carr, Raiders (5.1 percent)
The other benefit of throwing shorter passes is that it's harder to get your quarterback sacked; ask the Chiefs how close they ever got to Tom Brady on Saturday. The sort of crazy sack rates from the past are now all but gone. Eight different quarterbacks posted double-digit sack rates in 1985, with Dieter Brock of the Rams at a staggering 12.3 percent. Even in 2005, David Carr -- Derek's brother, of course -- was sacked on 13.8 percent of his dropbacks behind a porous Texans offensive line.
This year, the only quarterback in double digits was Colin Kaepernick, at 10.3 percent in a small sample.
Interception Rate
1985: John Elway, Broncos (3.8 percent)
1995: Vinny Testaverde, Buccaneers (2.6 percent)
2005: Gus Frerotte, Dolphins (2.6 percent)
2015: Kirk Cousins, Washington (2.0 percent)
Here's the biggest difference between quarterbacks of the past and passers today: Interceptions have all but dried up. In the '70s, quarterbacks threw picks on 5.3 percent of their pass attempts. That's down nearly 50 percent by the time we get to this decade, with quarterbacks throwing picks on 2.7 percent of their passes since 2010.
This is where the changes that have occurred to the game over the last 40 years all manifest themselves most obviously. Quarterbacks are getting the ball out quicker and throwing shorter passes with smarter schemes to receivers who can't be covered as tightly for fear of penalties. The old saying about how only three things can happen with a pass and two of them are bad was always dumb, but it's even stupider now, as the league's interception rate draws closer and closer to the rate of lost fumbles on running plays (0.8 percent).
This is a passing league, and that isn't changing.
Touchdown-to-Interception Ratio
1985: Phil Simms, Giants (22 touchdowns, 20 INTs, 1.10 ratio)
1995: Chris Chandler, Oilers (17 touchdowns, 10 INTs, 1.70 ratio)
2005: Steve McNair, Titans (16 touchdowns, 11 INTs, 1.45 ratio)
2015: Philip Rivers, Chargers (29 touchdowns, 13 INTs, 2.23 ratio)
Again, this is an enormous spike driven by the decline in interceptions. What was acceptable 30 years ago -- what seemed effective even 10 years ago -- is fundamentally different now. There were only seven qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL who threw two touchdowns for every pick in 2005. This year, there were 18.
Passer Rating
1985: Eric Hipple, Lions (73.6 rating)
1995: Mark Brunell, Jaguars (82.6 rating)
2005: Donovan McNabb, Eagles (85.0 rating)
2015: Jay Cutler, Bears (92.3 rating)
Let's finish up with the oft-derided passer rating, a stat built for quarterbacks from another era that bears little resemblance to the game we play here in 2015. Passer rating weights touchdowns as nearly as valuable as interceptions, which is obviously insane; a two-yard touchdown pass shouldn't be treated similarly to an interception inside your own 20-yard line, but because people used passer rating long enough, it became a number people vaguely became familiar with.
The scale for passer rating, again, is totally different. In 1985, the worst qualifying quarterback was Vince Ferragamo of the Bills, who posted a 50.5 passer rating. (Fortunately for Bills fans, Jim Kelly showed up the following year.) This year, the worst passer rating in the league was Peyton Manning's 67.9 figure. Nine different quarterbacks, including Cousins, Taylor and Stafford, all posted passer ratings better than Ken O'Brien's league-leading mark of 96.2. What seemed good 30 years ago doesn't remotely apply anymore.
What was great in the past might only be acceptable today.
Look at the players who have come up in the 2015 rankings as an "average" quarterback: Stafford. Cousins. Cutler. Carr. Teams treasure these guys as franchise quarterbacks, either in the process of developing or having fully realized their potential. And in some ways, they are, but how valuable is average? Is it worth Stafford's megadeal, which might have cost the Lions Ndamukong Suh and a realistic shot at managing their cap effectively? Cutler's deal, which the Bears would have dumped for free if they could have last offseason? Or the deal Cousins is about to get from Washington if the two sides can come to terms? What seemed excellent even 20 years ago is mere competence today.
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It's been said by many older veteran players that the modern day QB should be wearing dresses. You can't compare INT rates and TD numbers of older QBs with those of today..............in the face of merciless kill-mentality rushers of the past, the former would naturally be expected to be higher and latter lower.