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What is Watson's value in a trade?

badboy

Hall of Fame
Today on Philly sports radio for some reason the discussion became whether or not Philly should try to get Watson for Wentz and their two #1 draft picks this year. People seemed mostly against it in Philly but it was close and there was a lot of back and forth.
Philly only has 1.6 in round one; perhaps talking about it and 2022? I want to be getting out of large contract if we have to move Watson. Wentz huge contract. Thanks for info!
 

Norg

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
i guess this is the base line (3) 1sts, (3) 2nds, (3) 3rds, 5 players ....

i take that deal today if it was from the jags

only because in 4 years i dont think we are winning the sb and watson will be gone by the 4th year ....at least with Trevor hes younger and mad cheaper he has promise and we have no draft captiol and in cap hell
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
1.2 Justin Fields or Zach Wilson. Or, do you trade back and collect more picks?
Wilson really improved this season with his % and fantastic 33 TD/3 INTS. Fields right there but 238 pounds vs 210 & more mobile IMO. I'd be ok with either but leaning to Justin Fields.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
i guess this is the base line (3) 1sts, (3) 2nds, (3) 3rds, 5 players ....

i take that deal today if it was from the jags

only because in 4 years i dont think we are winning the sb and watson will be gone by the 4th year ....at least with Trevor hes younger and mad cheaper he has promise and we have no draft captiol and in cap hell
No lol that would be I died and went to heaven dream deal.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Jets need a defensive end desperately and Jets in 2020 had been mentioned as landing spot for JJ Watt. Could a package deal be beneficial to both teams?
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
1.2 Justin Fields or Zach Wilson. Or, do you trade back and collect more picks?

Good question .... and I haven't done any research on either of them outside watching bits and pieces of a few games so I have no idea.

Odds are neither is as good / better than Watson.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
This is about where I am at but my insist pre-trade that Jets trade Sam Darnold and see if we could get that also. The finger in the eye is how Watson handles a trade. If he remains quiet Texans could get more. At first, I would negotiate only with Jets behind the scenes.
Yeah , they can send Darnold elsewhere or keep him .... I don't want him.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Thought this is interesting from Sports Illustrated:
7. Positions of need

The Jets realistically need three starters on the offensive line, a capable pass-catching threat at tight end, at least two wide receivers, an every-down running back, a top-flight pass rusher, a new linebacking core and, depending on how free agency goes, an entirely new defensive backfield. So, just a few tweaks.

8. Sensible plan to fix them

Trade the No. 1 pick.

The Jets cannot facilitate a Hall of Fame Trevor Lawrence career in their current state. They need to conjure up a package reminiscent of the Ricky Williams or Herschel Walker trades and use it to recalibrate the franchise with affordable talent. If the Jets select Lawrence, and if Lawrence willingly goes to New York, it will be one of the most disastrous pairings of young promise and destructive organizational tendencies in modern times. The team has never, outside of a brief run with Chad Pennington, shown an ability to draft and develop talent at the position. A countless line of perfectly capable bodies have come through that door and turned sour. Is it because the Jets managed to select incorrectly each time, or is there something deeper beneath the surface?

Of course, 1.2 not first pick now but seems it would still apply. if Dashaun insists on trade the lure of NY City and taking his buddy JJ with him could be cool. Would Tunsil be part of a package fixing three priority needs for Jets who have the cap and would probably put them in playoffs 2021 and create huge positive attention. We could cut cap costs even with dead money and restock immediately in 2021 with full stock of picks in 22 with significant additions in 2022 from this trade.

2021: 1.2 + 1.27 + 2.34 + 3.66 2022: top ten round one plus apprx 1. 27 for
Watson, Tunsil and JJ Watt.
 

Earl34

All Pro
Thought this is interesting from Sports Illustrated:

Of course, 1.2 not first pick now but seems it would still apply. if Dashaun insists on trade the lure of NY City and taking his buddy JJ with him could be cool. Would Tunsil be part of a package fixing three priority needs for Jets who have the cap and would probably put them in playoffs 2021 and create huge positive attention. We could cut cap costs even with dead money and restock immediately in 2021 with full stock of picks in 22 with significant additions in 2022 from this trade.

2021: 1.2 + 1.27 + 2.34 + 3.66 2022: top ten round one plus apprx 1. 27 for
Watson, Tunsil and JJ Watt.
What is the impact to the Texans' cap? In other words, the dead money for trading Watson and Tunsil?
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
1.2 Justin Fields or Zach Wilson. Or, do you trade back and collect more picks?
That's the question if you sign off on this trade, huh?

I'm actually in the middle of trying to unwind the two of them myself. Leaning a hair toward Wilson atm but there are at least a handful games I wanna catch up before I feel confidant about it. That said I think the key to that trade proposal is to get enough to feel good about going with one or the other of them while still collecting enough capital to try and properly rebuild this empty cavity of a roster.

So ya, I think you go with one of them for certain as they're both worthy of taking a shot with.. just the million dollar question of which guy you feel has more to offer and/or fits your scheme/vision..

What's your choice, bud? Or trade down?
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
What is the impact to the Texans' cap? In other words, the dead money for trading Watson and Tunsil?
pre June 1st 2021 trade all signing bonus moves to that seasons cap:
Deshaun Watson dead money $21.6 million but looking only at QB at 2021 1.2 QB should be about Chase Young's {2020 1.2 and a generational pass rusher} cap 2021 $8million. Let's say with cap restraints ten million dollars. $32 million cap hit for QB year 2021 but your savings come by moving Tunsil plus tremendous savings over Watson beginning 2022 when DW $40 million. You also control your QB for five seasons same as Dashaun at huge savings. And that is just QB to QB comparison; need to add in the other starters you would get for Watson.

1.2 QB 1. 27 LT Cosmi or Leatherwood (even if you keep Tunsil this locks in LG or RT for years or WR or corner) 3.66 starting running back Chuba Hubbard or Ja'monte Williams.


Laremy Tunsil $9.75 dead but almost same in cap savings.This could go to diminish the QB hit.

JJ Watt if part of a package trade to Jets opens another $17.5 which could be part of the money needed for covid reduced cap.

Again I am not pushing Dashaun Watson to be traded but if he forced, this could help us reload quicker plus Justin Fields or Zach Wilson would be excellent start.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Would a trade down with Philly by Texans of 1.2 to get 1.6 plus Jalen Hurd QB and maybe something in 2022 be of value? We would still have rest of Watson trade like 1.27.
 

banned1976

All Pro
That's the question if you sign off on this trade, huh?

I'm actually in the middle of trying to unwind the two of them myself. Leaning a hair toward Wilson atm but there are at least a handful games I wanna catch up before I feel confidant about it. That said I think the key to that trade proposal is to get enough to feel good about going with one or the other of them while still collecting enough capital to try and properly rebuild this empty cavity of a roster.

So ya, I think you go with one of them for certain as they're both worthy of taking a shot with.. just the million dollar question of which guy you feel has more to offer and/or fits your scheme/vision..

What's your choice, bud? Or trade down?
I'd love to trade back a little and draft Trey Lance. I'm expecting him to be the 4th quarterback taken in the first round and I actually like him a little more than Wilson and Fields.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Three 1s and three 2s would be the absolute minimum for me. It would also not be a deal within the AFC South, hopefully not within the AFC period.
I would entertain Cinci, but IMO Washington would be the better trade market due to being in the NFC.
I would have to take Burrows at 1.1 and red-shirt him in 2020 behind McCarron.
I would draft Young at 1.2 and lean on McCarron as my starting QB as I don't think there's another QB in the draft worthy of being selected at that spot and pass rush being a major area of need. Hopefully, Watt will be able to mentor Young for a few seasons.
Not too long ago I would have said even thinking three Ones for DW is ridiculous, but I'm starting to believe that Iv'e undervalued him and just how good he is. I'm not sayin I totally agree but maybe he would be just that valuable to certain NFL organizations, I dunno ?
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
What is the impact to the Texans' cap? In other words, the dead money for trading Watson and Tunsil?

A pre June 1 trade of Watson comes with a cap hit of $21,600,000.
A pre June 1 trade of Tunsil comes with a cap hit of $9,750,000.


A Post June 1 trade of Watson comes with a 2021 cap hit of $5,400,000 and a 2022 cap hit of $16,200,000.
A post June 1 trade of Tunsil comes with a 2021 cap hit of $3,250,000 and a 2022 cap hit of $6,500,000.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Not too long ago I would have said even thinking three Ones for DW is ridiculous, but I'm starting to believe that Iv'e undervalued him and just how good he is. I'm not sayin I totally agree but maybe he would be just that valuable to certain NFL organizations, I dunno ?
I will soon be posting other suggestions I have from other sources from the Dolphins. A bidding war with Jets would be sweet *again, if it comes to a trade. I was hoping for Dolphins versus Raiders prior to 2020 draft.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
A pre June 1 trade of Watson comes with a cap hit of $21,600,000.
A pre June 1 trade of Tunsil comes with a cap hit of $9,750,000.


A Post June 1 trade of Watson comes with a 2021 cap hit of $5,400,000 and a 2022 cap hit of $16,200,000.
A post June 1 trade of Tunsil comes with a 2021 cap hit of $3,250,000 and a 2022 cap hit of $6,500,000.
Remind me when dead cap can be spread over two seasons? Is it with June first cuts only?
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Remind me when dead cap can be spread over two seasons? Is it with June first cuts only?

Short answer - Yes. After June 1 the hits are spread over 2 seasons.

I'd prefer NOT to do that as 2022 would be my target year for making a leap.

Put all the dead money on 2021 and take your medicine .... get a top draft pick for your troubles.
Go into 2022 with the ability to fill needs with top tier talent in both the draft and FA.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Dolphins Tu'A Tagovaila 6'0 22 YOA is raising calls from some fans and analysts. He returned extremely quickly from hip dislocation and pelvic structure fracture. CnnD spoke at length on this and I will post info also. 2020 stats from a rookie year most thought he should sit out: 186/290 64% 1,814 11 TDs and 5 INTs
Dolphin fan tweet
Texans get: 2021 HOU #3 pick, 2021 2nd round pick, Tua Tagovailoa, and a 2022 2nd round pick. https://rolltidewire.usatoday.com/2021/01/07/tua-tagovailoa-miami-dolphins-deshaun-watson-alabama-in-the-nfl/

And: "
  • Miami Dolphins receive: Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks
  • Houston Texans receive: 2021 first-round pick (3rd overall), 2021 first-round pick (18th overall), 2021 second-round pick (50th overall), 2021-fourth round pick (Miami), 2022 third-round pick (Miami), QB Tua Tagovailoa
Brandin Cooks refusing a trade may be better than eliminating his $12 m but I am open.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
let's also consider trading Tunsil as this is IMO a deeper tackle crop than I expected. We would eat half his cap hit for 2021 ($7 m ><) & should get mid round one plus.
The attractions of both are probowlers with locked in contracts and in prime. Playing together could be incentive for Miami and Jets to trade for both in package deal.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
The tightrope for Tu'a's ankle:

The Surgical Innovation That Got Tua Tagovailoa Back on the Field for Alabama's Title Push
Tua Tagovailoa's impressive recovery from a high ankle sprain has brought a wave of attention to Alabama doctors’ preferred surgery technique.
very lengthy article yet interesting. https://www.si.com/college/2019/01/06/tua-tagovailoa-ankle-surgery-alabama-injuries-tightrope











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No, Sunday's Loss Does Not Mean the Dolphins Should Move on From Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins will have the third pick, but Tua Tagovailoa's rookie season showed enough for them to commit to building around him instead of drafting another top QB prospect.
CONOR ORRJAN 3, 2021
The Dolphins knocked themselves out of the playoffs on Sunday (made official when the Colts beat the Jaguars in the late-afternoon slate) and did so in spectacular fashion—losing to the Bills, giving up more than 50 points and in the process, sowing doubt into what should have been an uplifting offseason for a team peaking ahead of schedule.
The reason for allegedly impending chaos was a disastrous performance from rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who threw three interceptions on Sunday and despite attempting more than 50 passes, averaged a meager 5.7 yards per attempt on the day. Despite going three-of-six on deep shots beyond 20 yards, most of Miami’s game plan was centered around routes of 10 yards or fewer. On those intermediate passes, Tagovailoa struggled, especially over the middle. He completed a single pass on balls thrown between 10 and 20 yards. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Tagovailoa had the second-worst completion percentage below expectation of the early games, hitting on 15% fewer of the balls than he should have. The only quarterback playing worse was Cincinnati’s Brandon Allen.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looks on from the field against the Buffalo Bills during the third quarter at Bills Stadium.


Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
So came the chorus of doubters who have been omnipresent around Tagovailoa this season. This noise isn’t likely to quiet, given that their ridiculously fortunate trade with the Texans will likely net them a top-three draft pick in the spring and another good shot at a top-tier quarterback if they so choose. It did not help matters that Brian Flores has been quick to pull Tagovailoa at various points throughout the season, allowing for Ryan Fitzpatrick to remain a somewhat incidentally delegitimizing presence for the former Alabama star.

Many of us tend to live every Sunday in a vacuum devoid of perspective, especially these days. On Sunday, this was undeniably true of anyone honestly believing that Miami should do anything but build around Tagovailoa this offseason.
Get SPORTS ILLUSTRATED's best stories every weekday. Sign up now.
Yes, the Dolphins blew it on Sunday with their 56–26 loss. They could have been a factor in the playoffs. They have a talented roster that is good enough to win now. But they also have a good nucleolus moving forward, which factors the young quarterback into the equation. The immediate reaction to Sunday’s performance doesn’t consider a notably conservative game plan that has dogged Tagovailoa this year, along with at least 11 dropped or fumbled balls (as The Miami Herald noted Sunday). Three of his top receivers on Sunday all netted fewer than the league average in terms of average separation on a given snap, meaning that tight-window throws were especially so on Sunday, even though only 10% of his passes could be deemed “aggressive” technically.
Before Sunday, Tagovailoa was hitting on 65% of his passes while being pressured, which is a better completion percentage on difficult throws than Peyton Manning amassed on all throws over his first four NFL seasons. His Bad Throw Percentage, 18.3%, was the same as Patrick Mahomes’s back in 2019—the year Kansas City won the Super Bowl. In college, Tagovailoa was behind only Joe Burrow in terms of catchable balls thrown percentage, and was near 80% in on-target passing. All of this needs to be digested before going along with the panicked narrative that Tagovailoa is somehow now all of a sudden not the player we imagined him to be coming out of college.
Tagovailoa was running an offense in 2020 designed by Chan Gailey, a coach who has a long history with Fitzpatrick and a tendency to favor conservative game plans. And while this may sound like simply a long list of excuses, it’s meant to be a long list of counterweights to the inevitably hefty opinion that somehow, for some reason, Sunday exposed a player for not having that nebulous “right stuff.”
If Watson does force trade other teams have to be interested.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
What is Watson's trade value? As much as Caserio can take from the interested organization while staying above his reserve.

Hail, for that matter, Caserio could hire Mecum Auctions to handle the trade date of 30 May 2021 at Reliant Stadium. The reserve is 3- RD1, 2- RD2, and 1- RD3 picks that permit the RD1 picks to be split from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 NFL Drafts. Let the NFL GM's show up and the Texans could trot Watson's arse out on center stage in white football pants, white socks, shoes and shoulder pads. The winning organization ould bring their helmet and a Watson jersey to the stage for big photo op and celebration. Could be really exciting.
 
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Thorn

Dirty Old Man
What is Watson's trade value? As much as Caserio can take from the interested organization while staying above his reserve.

Hail, for that matter, Caserio could hire Mecum Auctions to handle the trade date of 30 May 2021 at Reliant Stadium. The reserve is 3- RD1, 2- RD2, and 1- RD3 picks that permit the RD1 picks to be split from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 NFL Drafts. Let the NFL GM's show up and the Texans could trot Watson's arse out on center stage in white football pants, white socks, shoes and shoulder pads. The winning organization ould bring their helmet and a Watson jersey to the stage for big photo op and celebration. Could be really exciting.
I'd watch that.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
Let's think about this folks. There's a lot of posters here, me included, that just don't trust the Texans organization to do what's right. Well, if that's the case, and we firmly believe that there's nothing to be done here except watching the Texans crash and burn each year, then why not just give the team an enama and start over? It's not like it will prevent us from getting to a super bowl if we don't believe the organization is capable of such a feat in the first place.

Just so you'll know, I'm not really in favor of trading Watson, but I am capable of enjoying the shitstorm that will ensue if it happens. :lol:
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Let's think about this folks. There's a lot of posters here, me included, that just don't trust the Texans organization to do what's right. Well, if that's the case, and we firmly believe that there's nothing to be done here except watching the Texans crash and burn each year, then why not just give the team an enama and start over? It's not like it will prevent us from getting to a super bowl if we don't believe the organization is capable of such a feat in the first place.

Just so you'll know, I'm not really in favor of trading Watson, but I am capable of enjoying the shitstorm that will ensue if it happens. :lol:
I'm really rooting for a DW4 trade.

This MB would provide great entertainment value.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
I'm really rooting for a DW4 trade.

This MB would provide great entertainment value.
Watson can get us to a SB, but only with a good coaching staff and lots and lots and LOTS of other holes on the team filled. And that ain't happening anytime soon. I also don't think he'll get traded. Cal knows that would be a marketing nightmare. He'd rather trot out a mediocre team and settle in with his profits.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Watson can get us to a SB, but only with a good coaching staff and lots and lots and LOTS of other holes on the team filled. And that ain't happening anytime soon. I also don't think he'll get traded. Cal knows that would be a marketing nightmare. He'd rather trot out a mediocre team and settle in with his profits.
Maybe/Maybe not about DW4. The odds are stacked against the Texans winning a championship with DW4's salary.

Agreed about Cal.
 


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