Wish to make a one time donation? Make it here.

Watson & Tunsil Contracts

KoolAid Sipper

Waterboy
Well for some of us it is not all about paying huge sums of money to Watson; it is also about whether he is the QB to take this team led by this head coach to the super bowl. I am not sold on either OBrien or Dashaun and want one more season at Watson's $4.4 m cap hit rather than $35 to 40+ million. OBrien not going anywhere 2020 and probably not 2021 so I want convincing that #4 is the guy. Everyone here knows who thinks Watson is not the guy and who thinks it's all OBrien's fault. Watson for whatever reason seemed to regress from 2018- 2019 and I want clearer understanding of why. If it was Dashaun it is better to know before a new deal settles into his checking account. If OBrien flubs it, hopefully McNairs will pull plug. Why anyone does not want to wait this season is beyond me. It is not our money so why so eager to spend when we don't have to? So what if we then have to pay more? An extra $5-6 m more per year is worth the gamble. I would have loved to have had another year of Tunsil at $2m cap (2019) to decide on him but we didn't have it. Many are complaining that we overpaid him significantly; why take chance with Watson when we do not have to? As with Laremy, Dashaun's going to be paid so let it ride.
This head coach has issues beyond the QB. Its been 2.5 years, so of course Watson has things to work on. Being 24 years old he has room to grow into his full potential. Now flip that to OB, as the head coach he's making some of the same mistakes yearly going on 6 years? At 50 years old, he's not an old man, but how likely do you think it is for the light bulb to come on? I'm not cheering against OB and I want great things for this team, but his leash should be a helluva lot shorter than Watson's. I don't think Watson regressed but probably didn't progress at the rate WE expected from '18 to '19. I also think you're underestimating the extra $5-6M per year, I see that as $25-30M over 5 years.
 

Lucky

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Staff member
Was it wrong to pay Phillip Rivers like a top QB?
Yes. Why are we pretending these QBs from the Mesozoic Age will bounce back from bad seasons? Rivers is on the decline. I think the Colts are going to play retroball, and run their rookie RB behind their power running O-line. They also drafted a big possession receiver. They plan on grinding it out and are looking for a game manager. Rivers just threw 20 picks last year. Can't play it close to the vest when your cement footed QB is creating turnovers. Rivers is the reason the Texans will win the AFC South again.
 

theCATALYST

"Fake" Fan
I was having a Texans discussion with a couple of friends (fans of other teams) this morning and they both of them suggested that I do not fully understand O'Briens latest moves as they relate to Waton's contract. Of course, this I had to hear. So they claim the following;

1) We allowed Reader to walk because he was due for a big payday. (Giving the illusion we could not pay him due to impending contract negotiations with Watson/Tunsil).
2) Traded Hopkins who was rumored to want more money and admitting he outplayed his contract. (Adding to the illusion).
3) Signing mid tier and lower tier talent to higher than deserved contracts i.e. Eric Murray (To eat up cap space ((but pay attention, these contracts are easy to get out of in a year or two once our QB is resigned)) and further give the illusion that we are trying to get talent but cap space is shrinking).
4) Sign Tunsil to his massive contract first (See Watson, we did this for you!!)

Basically it boils down to this. "See Watson, we have to let these top tier weapons go because the money they are requesting is tied up in your future contract". Keeping in mind O'Briens familiarity with the New England approach to football (Brady accepting less than deserved payment in order to add/keep talent around him) it is my friends belief that all these moves by O'Brien are an attempt to manipulate Watson into signing a team friendly contract.


Are they way off base?
 

OptimisticTexan

Go Texans 4-3...Post OB!!!!!
I was having a Texans discussion with a couple of friends (fans of other teams) this morning and they both of them suggested that I do not fully understand O'Briens latest moves as they relate to Waton's contract. Of course, this I had to hear. So they claim the following;

1) We allowed Reader to walk because he was due for a big payday. (Giving the illusion we could not pay him due to impending contract negotiations with Watson/Tunsil).
2) Traded Hopkins who was rumored to want more money and admitting he outplayed his contract. (Adding to the illusion).
3) Signing mid tier and lower tier talent to higher than deserved contracts i.e. Eric Murray (To eat up cap space ((but pay attention, these contracts are easy to get out of in a year or two once our QB is resigned)) and further give the illusion that we are trying to get talent but cap space is shrinking).
4) Sign Tunsil to his massive contract first (See Watson, we did this for you!!)

Basically it boils down to this. "See Watson, we have to let these top tier weapons go because the money they are requesting is tied up in your future contract". Keeping in mind O'Briens familiarity with the New England approach to football (Brady accepting less than deserved payment in order to add/keep talent around him) it is my friends belief that all these moves by O'Brien are an attempt to manipulate Watson into signing a team friendly contract.


Are they way off base?
Interesting angle....
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
Interesting angle....
I have been thinking for a long time that DW4 could take $30m per because with that plus endorsements, your personal lifestyle does not change, you are made, your kids are made, the extra $10m is yes real money, but on the field it means another weapon or person to protect him, or person to make a play to save a game. The union would be pissed, but I walked away from some paydays for a better quality of life and I did not have it near as hard as DW4. Let's see, but if he was going to give a discount, I think this would have happened already as the Texans should sign immediately
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Yes. Why are we pretending these QBs from the Mesozoic Age will bounce back from bad seasons? Rivers is on the decline.
No, I'm not talking about now. I'm talking back in the Mesozoic age. We know now that it's highly unlikely he'll win a Super Bowl.

Same with Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton... those guys, like Watson, are talented enough to win a Super Bowl. Just didn't happen.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Was it wrong to pay Phillip Rivers like a top QB?
Yes. Why are we pretending these QBs from the Mesozoic Age will bounce back from bad seasons? Rivers is on the decline. I think the Colts are going to play retroball, and run their rookie RB behind their power running O-line. They also drafted a big possession receiver. They plan on grinding it out and are looking for a game manager. Rivers just threw 20 picks last year. Can't play it close to the vest when your cement footed QB is creating turnovers. Rivers is the reason the Texans will win the AFC South again.
Rivers in decline is still much better than what Brissett is likely to give you. Rivers threw 21 picks in '16 and followed that with 10 in '17. Rivers has also had an average to bad run game in SoCal the last few years, so he's had to do more. He should have a top 10 run game in Indy and shouldn't have to have as much on his shoulders.

Say what you want about the money. QB money is stupid outrageous anyway, but the Colts will be much better this year.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Was it wrong to pay Phillip Rivers like a top QB?
Definitely not same scenario but I say it was a mistake. His age and INT to TD ratio is horrible. It is being hoped he can turn that back to 2018 which in turn should improve his accuracy from 66% to 68ish. Colts do not have a better option IMO as they gambled and lost with Brissett. I think they are wishin and a hopin that Jacob Eason can learn enough to be the guy in 2021 as the other two should be gone opening up comps for 2022.
 
I was having a Texans discussion with a couple of friends (fans of other teams) this morning and they both of them suggested that I do not fully understand O'Briens latest moves as they relate to Waton's contract. Of course, this I had to hear. So they claim the following;

1) We allowed Reader to walk because he was due for a big payday. (Giving the illusion we could not pay him due to impending contract negotiations with Watson/Tunsil).
2) Traded Hopkins who was rumored to want more money and admitting he outplayed his contract. (Adding to the illusion).
3) Signing mid tier and lower tier talent to higher than deserved contracts i.e. Eric Murray (To eat up cap space ((but pay attention, these contracts are easy to get out of in a year or two once our QB is resigned)) and further give the illusion that we are trying to get talent but cap space is shrinking).
4) Sign Tunsil to his massive contract first (See Watson, we did this for you!!)

Basically it boils down to this. "See Watson, we have to let these top tier weapons go because the money they are requesting is tied up in your future contract". Keeping in mind O'Briens familiarity with the New England approach to football (Brady accepting less than deserved payment in order to add/keep talent around him) it is my friends belief that all these moves by O'Brien are an attempt to manipulate Watson into signing a team friendly contract.


Are they way off base?
Are they off base in what OB is trying to do? I don’t know but my gut says yes but regardless they are missing one very important part.

In NE it was Brady that pushed for team friendly contracts because Brady maybe the only player you can truly say cares more about winning than he does money. Even then Brady got his money through signing bonuses and incentive bonuses so the cap didn’t take the hit when it hurt them the most.

I like Watson but he has made it clear that priority one for him is the money when he said no home town discount. I don’t blame him at all, money would be for me to, but let’s not pretend he has Brady’s mindset on team building.

Also, frankly I don’t think OB is enough of a mastermind to come up with something like that. That’s some real Lex Luther stuff there and OB wouldn't have learned that from BB. Belichick doesn’t manipulate players he just lays down the law then views and treats them like assets and nothing more. OB tries to be like Belichick but he lacks Belichick’s calmness and cold heartedness.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I was having a Texans discussion with a couple of friends (fans of other teams) this morning and they both of them suggested that I do not fully understand O'Briens latest moves as they relate to Waton's contract. Of course, this I had to hear. So they claim the following;

1) We allowed Reader to walk because he was due for a big payday. (Giving the illusion we could not pay him due to impending contract negotiations with Watson/Tunsil).
2) Traded Hopkins who was rumored to want more money and admitting he outplayed his contract. (Adding to the illusion).
3) Signing mid tier and lower tier talent to higher than deserved contracts i.e. Eric Murray (To eat up cap space ((but pay attention, these contracts are easy to get out of in a year or two once our QB is resigned)) and further give the illusion that we are trying to get talent but cap space is shrinking).
4) Sign Tunsil to his massive contract first (See Watson, we did this for you!!)

Basically it boils down to this. "See Watson, we have to let these top tier weapons go because the money they are requesting is tied up in your future contract". Keeping in mind O'Briens familiarity with the New England approach to football (Brady accepting less than deserved payment in order to add/keep talent around him) it is my friends belief that all these moves by O'Brien are an attempt to manipulate Watson into signing a team friendly contract.


Are they way off base?
I agree with your friends except for #3 and I'm not sure if to eat up cap space is their position or how you interpreted it.

1. Reader was wanting and did get a big pay day. IMO and evidently OBrien's you don't pay Nose tackles double digit cap hits. Not on this roster where you have Dunn and Blackson and perhaps Vanderdoes at much, much less money. This defense is set up to drive QB into the middle and shut down the run. It does not take immensely skillful guys for that at nose. It seems obvious that Weaver is going with a different plan by drafting Blacklock.
2. Hopkins did want more money and he did out play contract which is exactly what we want from every player. No illusion.
3. Players are a high risk over payments but not to "eat up cap" but to hope you get a turnaround from each to make risk more palatable. If not, they can be dumped after this season and that is when and if Watson's new deal should begin to impact cap. TV deal.
4. Tunsil was signed for Watson. Every lineman is signed for the QB. Dashaun should be more willing to remain here with his blindspot protected. "Hey, D we went and got your a LT and paid both in draft picks and dolares!"

In summary, why in the heck would you expect a GM to not try to get a team friendly deal? That is just economics.
 

KoolAid Sipper

Waterboy
I was having a Texans discussion with a couple of friends (fans of other teams) this morning and they both of them suggested that I do not fully understand O'Briens latest moves as they relate to Waton's contract. Of course, this I had to hear. So they claim the following;

1) We allowed Reader to walk because he was due for a big payday. (Giving the illusion we could not pay him due to impending contract negotiations with Watson/Tunsil).
2) Traded Hopkins who was rumored to want more money and admitting he outplayed his contract. (Adding to the illusion).
3) Signing mid tier and lower tier talent to higher than deserved contracts i.e. Eric Murray (To eat up cap space ((but pay attention, these contracts are easy to get out of in a year or two once our QB is resigned)) and further give the illusion that we are trying to get talent but cap space is shrinking).
4) Sign Tunsil to his massive contract first (See Watson, we did this for you!!)

Basically it boils down to this. "See Watson, we have to let these top tier weapons go because the money they are requesting is tied up in your future contract". Keeping in mind O'Briens familiarity with the New England approach to football (Brady accepting less than deserved payment in order to add/keep talent around him) it is my friends belief that all these moves by O'Brien are an attempt to manipulate Watson into signing a team friendly contract.


Are they way off base?
That's a terrible thing to portray. A seasoned GM or any GM with a good capologist will know how to make it work. Plus, doesn't the salary cap adjust up every year?
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
Rivers was this in '16, that in '17. This is 2020. He's much more likely to get worse than bounce back. In fact, I think Brissett will get the job back at some point.
Other than INT numbers being high last season, what is there to bounce back from? They had a top 10 pass game. Rivers still threw for over 4,600 yards, 4th most of his career. 66% completion percentage, above his career average, Y/A right at his career average. TD% was the lowest of his career (3.9), but Brissett wasn't much better (4.0). The INTs did keep his passer rating down to one of his 3 worst, but I think in an offense where he won't be asked to do it all like he had to in SD/LA, he's still going to give you much more than Brissett will.

The Colts were bottom 10 through the air last season with Brissett, and bottom 3 when he started in '17. Yes, I'm aware that was basically his rookie season. But so far he hasn't even had a passer rating higher than the 3rd worst of his career Rivers had last year. Brissett had 9 games under 200 yards passing last season. You have to go back to 2014 to total 9 games under 200 for Rivers. Yes, I get different offensive styles, but still. Even at 38-39, and I'll give you that he is much closer to declining than not, Rivers is light years ahead of Brissett. No way he takes snaps from Rivers.

I actually hope you're right though because it will mean the Colts suck. I just don't think you will be on this one.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I do not expect Watson to sign a new extension unless obrien agrees to #4s agents demand. Dak Prescott should come first. Kerr will prob overpay.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I can see a contract for Dashaun designed similar to Tunsil's. Three year extension for $100 million to be spread over 2020 thru 2023 (4 years) for cap purpose. $ 33.33 avg per for new money and $25 m over the four. Puts him into top five QB in most areas. He would be 28 end of this deal and NFL cap recovery from Covid19 should be completed. I don't think I will be out on a limb by saying the full 100 GTD. Matt Ryan at his age got almost that IIRC.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I can see a contract for Dashaun designed similar to Tunsil's. Three year extension for $100 million to be spread over 2020 thru 2023 (4 years) for cap purpose. $ 33.33 avg per for new money and $25 m over the four. Puts him into top five QB in most areas. He would be 28 end of this deal and NFL cap recovery from Covid19 should be completed. I don't think I will be out on a limb by saying the full 100 GTD. Matt Ryan at his age got almost that IIRC.
Hmm, this is beginning to look predictive. Dak at 31, Mahommes perhaps at 36 and Watson in between seems to meet all the rumored criteria. I would still like to see Dashaun play one more season before locking in big bucks but my offer might be hard for Obrien to turn down.
 

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
I can see a contract for Dashaun designed similar to Tunsil's. Three year extension for $100 million to be spread over 2020 thru 2023 (4 years) for cap purpose. $ 33.33 avg per for new money and $25 m over the four. Puts him into top five QB in most areas. He would be 28 end of this deal and NFL cap recovery from Covid19 should be completed. I don't think I will be out on a limb by saying the full 100 GTD. Matt Ryan at his age got almost that IIRC.
The Cowboys offer would have given him a 5-year contract with $22 million / year guaranteed (~$110 million total). The tag alone gives him ~ 1/3 of the offered contract........in 1 year.
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
The Cowboys offer would have given him a 5-year contract with $22 million / year guaranteed (~$110 million total). The tag alone gives him ~ 1/3 of the offered contract........in 1 year.
With the weaponry the Cowboys have on offense he is bound to put up good stats even if he doesn't get a ton of wins or playoff success. He'll be able to still demand a huge contract with the stats by itself. I just don't see Dak as "that guy" personally. Not for the that kind of contract.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
After all of that fuss dude signs the tender. Lol too funny. He should’ve taken the contract that was offered to him. IMO
No, I disagree. He was hoping as are the others that he would get a monster deal and he waited as long as he could. The Cowboys have until July 15th to continue negotiating; after that unable until after year. See Cloak's post after mine.
 

PapaL

Loose Screw
Deshaun with an e and an a. Come on, he’s been here long enough.

$31M for the year ain’t a bad option for anyone. This is a QB league. If you want a star, it’s gonna cost you. Watson would be wise to get everything he can. He’s already left a lung on the field for the franchise.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Deshaun with an e and an a. Come on, he’s been here long enough.

$31M for the year ain’t a bad option for anyone. This is a QB league. If you want a star, it’s gonna cost you. Watson would be wise to get everything he can. He’s already left a lung on the field for the franchise.
I guess winning a championship isn't important to you because if he's making more than 15% of the cap there will be no championships.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Deshaun with an e and an a. Come on, he’s been here long enough.

$31M for the year ain’t a bad option for anyone. This is a QB league. If you want a star, it’s gonna cost you. Watson would be wise to get everything he can. He’s already left a lung on the field for the franchise.
Has nothing to do with his time in Houston, I am a poor typist and frequently my mind and fingers don't connect at the keyboard. Also as most know George (Michael) Floyd for example I just get names mixed up. No disrespect meant but love me or hate me I probably will continue to make these type errors. Most would be shocked at how many errors I catch before I click "post".
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I guess winning a championship isn't important to you because if he's making more than 15% of the cap there will be no championships.
I think Jerry is most interested in getting farther down in round one of draft; championships a ways into the future.
 

PapaL

Loose Screw
I guess winning a championship isn't important to you because if he's making more than 15% of the cap there will be no championships.
Talent costs.

Add me to your blocked list please. I’d prefer you don’t quote me again. Thanks.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Talent costs.

Add me to your blocked list please. I’d prefer you don’t quote me again. Thanks.
Why because no team has won a championship spending more than 14% on the cap for their QB is a fact and because you dont like that fact you dont want me to quote you after all of these yrs?

SMH
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Deshaun with an e and an a. Come on, he’s been here long enough.

$31M for the year ain’t a bad option for anyone. This is a QB league. If you want a star, it’s gonna cost you. Watson would be wise to get everything he can. He’s already left a lung on the field for the franchise.

I'm not really concerned with how much he ends up getting … but what that corelates to in terms of percentage of the whole going forward.

We're looking at potentially a 30% reduction in the cap next season if they actually have a full season with no fans in the stands.
League revenue and the salary cap could further reduce if any part of the season is canceled / lost.

Currently 15% of the total cap ($198.2m) would equate to $29.73m. That same $29.73m equates to ~21% of the projected 141.4m of the cap for 2021.

Now what we've heard in terms of Watson's contract is a figure between $35m and $40m.
We'll use the lower figure for these calculations - $35m is 17.65% of the current cap total and equates to 24.7% of the projected 2021 cap.

Keep in mind that NO QB has won a superbowl while earning greater than 14% of the cap total in that given year.

From the perspective of the team , this is no time to be negotiating a high value contract.
Realistically , it may take 3-5 years for the cap to recover to its current value and you'd be saddled with that vastly overpaid (in terms of cap percentage) contract for the duration of that recovery making it exceedingly difficult to put a quality roster around that contract.

Next offseason , with the reduced cap is when teams should look to get these high value contracts extended. That plays well for the Texans in terms of cap allocation as Watson has two more years on his current deal and they can work out a deal that's proportionately fair for both the franchise and Watson based off of post Covid finances rather than wrecking their cap for a 3-5 year period after - Tunsil's contract is going to be a big burden already.

Something else we're likely to see as a result of a lower cap is a whole lot of cap casualties hitting the free agent market - those on mid tier contracts with little to no dead money , eventually resigned for significantly smaller contracts.
The stars on current high value contracts are going to take up the majority of the money while the rest of the league gets short changed. Signing Watson to a contract based off of post pandemic finances allows the Texans to take advantage of that situation rather than cutting talent to compensate.

This is assuming they play a full season in 2020 - If the seasons is canceled or shortened , these numbers are altered dramatically.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
2021 cap space 21.4
2020 rollover......20.6
David Johnson.....7.
Duke Johnson......5
Zach Fulton..........3 Hargreaves..........1
Total $58 million without much impact on talent.
Depending on if and how they play 2020:
Watt 17.5
Dunn. 3.25
Fells. 2.3
Jaylon Watkins 1.4

Another $25 million.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Keep in mind that NO QB has won a superbowl while earning greater than 14% of the cap total in that given year.
Keep in mind no team has won a Super Bowl with Bill O’Brien as HC/GM.

We’re taking baby steps. Now, we’re a perennial playoff team. Maybe we’ll get past the divisional round in the next couple of years.

It’s to late for @Thorn, but maybe I’ll see an NFL championship team in Houston before I die.
 
Last edited:

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Talent costs.

Add me to your blocked list please. I’d prefer you don’t quote me again. Thanks.

These people be quoting some irrelevant stuff like it’s the gospel. They read it here and now it’s brought up every time Watson and money is brought up. Watson is not about to eat up the cap space. I guess we didn’t just pay Tunsil big time money. Oh I guess we can say Mahomas won’t win another SB nor will Jackson once they get big time mega contracts. The Eagles can hang it up too
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
These people be quoting some irrelevant stuff like it’s the gospel. They read it here and now it’s brought up every time Watson and money is brought up. Watson is not about to eat up the cap space. I guess we didn’t just pay Tunsil big time money. Oh I guess we can say Mahomas won’t win another SB nor will Jackson once they get big time mega contracts. The Eagles can hang it up too
What do you mean salary or salary cap shouldn't be brought up? We have a salary cap. That means we have to strategize on how to build the team and how much money we can allocate to each position. What we pay Watson (The highest paid player on the team when we do) will greatly dictate how we can build the team afterwards and with whom. He has to be good enough to justify a certain salary amount.
 

KoolAid Sipper

Waterboy
This isn't geared at Watson or Tunsil but I just don't see how 3 year deals would be good for a team or the league. I get the shorter commitment time in case the player doesn't pan out. However a good, young, premium position player could rake you over the coals in the followup deal even if they stay at the level that garnered the 1st extension.
 


Top