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Watson’s a top 5 qb. Do you agree?

steelbtexan said:
Brady/Brees/Rodgers seemed to be able to WR groups quickly.
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The year before last Rodgers struggled big time. One of the reasons why they only won 6 games. Oh and during this off season he was livid with the fact of them drafting a quarterback verse a wide



When coach Payton was suspended Brees struggled badly 2012. They went 7-9, that year Brees struggled with interceptions.

Brady was ticked off last season because of the lack of importance for the receiver core. Even though they made the playoffs, it was best to death on how he is trending downwards.

Need we go on.
 
Texansballer74 said:
The year before last Rodgers struggled big time. One of the reasons why they only won 6 games. Oh and during this off season he was livid with the fact of them drafting a quarterback verse a wide



When coach Payton was suspended Brees struggled badly 2012. They went 7-9, that year Brees struggled with interceptions.

Brady was ticked off last season because of the lack of importance for the receiver core. Even though they made the playoffs, it was best to death on how he is trending downwards.

Need we go on.
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Or Roders broke his collarbone and was out for the season.

Shocking that Brees would miss Payton, who is one of the best playcallers in the NFL and what does this have to do with breaking in another receiver group.

After breaking in 3 WR groups in Foxboro a 42 yr old Brady didn't want to break in another WR group. Shocking I tell you.
 
ClemsonTexan said:
No, you can't say anything about formations. And that's because you don't know what you're talking about.



Yup. Clemson guys. LOL.

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This ain't Clemson anymore. Although I will say kissing that trophy looks pretty great. How are the athletes GPA's there? Listening to Hopkins who I'm sure has a degree (Just like Vince Youg with my Horns) it ain't to high.
 
steelbtexan said:
This ain't Clemson anymore. Although I will say kissing that trophy looks pretty great. How are the athletes GPA's there? Listening to Hopkins who I'm sure has a degree (Just like Vince Youg with my Horns) it ain't to high.
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The irony is so palpable here that you could cut it with a knife.

I can see why you liked BOB so much. You both like knocking players for stuff that has nothing to do with their on-field performance. Stay classy.
 
ClemsonTexan said:
This is damning. Maybe Jimmy G could sit in the QB room with DW4 and learn to speed up his decision-making process.



touchdownwire.usatoday.com

It might be the end of the Jimmy Garoppolo era in San Francisco, and that's okay

The Eagles might dispute this, but has any NFL team been snake-bit by injuries more than the 49ers in 2020? Edge-rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, cornerback Richard Sherman, center Weston Richburg, …
touchdownwire.usatoday.com touchdownwire.usatoday.com

Steel, it might be time for you to cut Jimmy G loose. He doesn't have the processing speed a franchise QB like DW4 possesses.
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Does steelb have any response to Jimmy G's noted lack of processing speed?
 
dream_team said:
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How many times have we seen Texans O-linemen block air while their QB is sacked? I know they don't want their QB to get sacked. I know the coaching isn't tippy-top. But damn, when do instincts kick in and you find a man to block?
 
dream_team said:
I wish, but we can't with his contract. I admit, I was a Whit fan. WTH happened to him?
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Mercilus just doesn't have the necessary athleticism he once had. It's similar to the conversations regarding David Johnson, preseason. If only Johnson could get back to his 2016 form! Well, it's not 2016. We have to live in the present, where Johnson and Mercilus can no longer cut the mustard. Unfortunately, the Texans had a GM that knew nothing about mustard.

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Lucky said:
Mercilus just doesn't have the necessary athleticism he once had. It's similar to the conversations regarding David Johnson, preseason. If only Johnson could get back to his 2016 form! Well, it's not 2016. We have to live in the present, where Johnson and Mercilus can no longer cut the mustard. Unfortunately, the Texans had a GM that knew nothing about mustard.

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Seth Payne believes it's a motivation thing. And he's blaming the coaches continuing to give him playing time.
 
Lucky said:
I agree with the 2nd part. I think if Mercilus still had it, he would show it.
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Yep, when Cousins beats you to the corner you know you're due for retirement. I dont believe the BS about Mercy being their best cover LB. If that's true in Rd. 3 gotta get a LB that can cover.

Good guy though
 
dream_team said:
Here's a still of when DW was at the top of his drop and he possibly notices #50 coming free. Do you think he has a passing lane to Akins? To me, it doesn't look like it. He could have possibly lobbed one over #50 & #96, but then there's a DB sitting (you can kind of see him at the bottom-left of pic) that could have picked that type of pass off.
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If nothing else you’ve proven we’re going to see what we want to see.
 
I sometimes wonder why we have to keep proving to ourselves Watson is a very good QB. Which doesn't mean we'll ever win a SB with him if he isn't given a good supporting cast. Just our luck, we finally get a very good QB but don't have anything else around him. Like a defense. Or at least a semi-intelligent front office. Of which we don't have either. Or a decent o-line. Or RB. And now a just a few left-over wide receivers from the practice squad.

So who's going to start the Bears game day thread? I don't think you want me doing it. LOL
 
Corrosion said:
Now show us where he ranks in negative or net zero plays.
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I thought this was a thread devoted to DW4's good plays. But if you insist...

This season, Watson currently ranks 2nd in net yards per passing attempt, which accounts for both sacks and the number of yards incurred on those sacks. Last year, he ranked 14th. Does going from 14th to 2nd count as improvement?

In case anyone is wondering, Jimmy G ranks 36th:nolisten:

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ClemsonTexan said:
I thought this was a thread devoted to DW4's good plays. But if you insist...

This season, Watson currently ranks 2nd in net yards per passing attempt, which accounts for both sacks and the number of yards incurred on those sacks. Last year, he ranked 14th. Does going from 14th to 2nd count as improvement?

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Where is this from (link) I'd like go over those stats.

Edit: I found it on PFR.

Net yards per attempt doesn't answer my question and I already went into that last week as it correlates to the big play or bust narrative.

Net zero would be an incompletion or a very short gain.

Negative would be a pick , sack , fumble.
 
I guess the question is whether you can have superior stats in almost every category and still be considered a middle of the pack player. For example, was Kobe a middle of the pack player when he was slumming it with Smush Parker? His stats suggested he was not, but if we are to judge a player by his team's record, he really wasn't any better than Brandon Roy.
 

I suppose you could pay to get behind PFF's pay wall and get the data yourself.

There are nonetheless inferences that can be drawn from PFF's own data/rankings. Watson has always ranked very high on big time throws. Last season, for example, he ranked 3rd or 4th. His completion % hasn't varied much over the last 3 seasons. . So obviously, something had to have changed for his ranking to skyrocket. If we are to judge him solely by PFF's QB grade, then I think it's hard to argue that he's leaving any more plays on the field than any other QB in the League. The only ones who are likely better in that regard are Mahomes and Rodgers.

And again, the standard is not perfection. Every QB will miss a read, throw an inaccurate ball, blow a protection call, etc. The question is how often does he do it relative to everyone else at his position? So far, the people saying that he's missing all of these plays have not shown how he fares in that regard, which is sort of a pointless criticism if no context is provided. It's like saying Steph Curry misses 55% of the 3 pointers he takes. That doesn't sound too good until you realize the rest of the NBA misses 68% of their 3 pointers.
 
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What's even more impressive is that Watson was ranked last in turnover worthy throws. Even though Watson officially threw an INT against the Colts, that's not a "turnover worthy throw" since it was technically a completion that was ripped away from Cooks. For him to rank last in that category (which is good), that means there are a whole lot of QBs that are throwing bad passes that don't necessarily show up in the box score, and which don't get discussed in this forum because no one has time to watch all 32 teams in the NFL.
 
Corrosion said:
Net yards per attempt doesn't answer my question and I already went into that last week as it correlates to the big play or bust narrative.
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Only it doesn't. If the correlation were really that strong--and Watson is still a big play or bust player in 2020--then why was he ranked 15th in NY/A in 2018 but ranked 2nd in the same category in 2020? You can't have it both ways. If it is indeed the case that NY/A correlated to a "big play or bust narrative," then we would expect Watson to be ranked around where he was the past couple of seasons, not ranked 2nd.

If there's any one stat that has great explanatory power, it's NY/A. It's similar to points per possession in the NBA. At the end of the day, how many yards are you netting your team with each drop back? No single stat is perfect or comprehensive, but NY/A is a fairly decent one.
 
It's also worth noting that there are two propositions that are nearly impossible to be true in tandem.

Proposition 1: Deshaun Watson does not throw with anticipation well and does not frequently throw receivers open.

Proposition 2: Deshaun Watson ranks 2nd in total passing yards with one of the lowest INT rates in the NFL (and fewest turnover worthy throws).

It's virtually impossible for Proposition 2 to be true without Proposition 1 not being true. You might have a case like Jameis Winston where he's racking up big yards through the air but also throwing a crapload of picks. This accounts for the fact that he was ranked 26th in passer rating despite him "balling" last season. If you are consistently driving the ball downfield, and achieving a high completion rate at the same time, then you are inherently throwing with anticipation and throwing receivers open. The defensive schemes in the NFL are too sophisticated for this not to be the case.
 
ClemsonTexan said:
It's virtually impossible for Proposition 2 to be true without Proposition 1 not being true. You might have a case like Jameis Winston where he's racking up big yards through the air but also throwing a crapload of picks.
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first let me say I appreciate the last few posts you’ve made in this thread. Sound logical arguments. However you got me thinking about Winston & wondering what his NY/A was.


So I found this article on Winston. I may very well be wrong but at first quick read, it sounds like none of the arguments you’ve presented hold water. Granted that comes from an uninformed opinion of Jamies Winston’s effectiveness as a QB.

Again, I just read through your arguments & read through this article. I didn’t study them, but I believe the gist is the stats you provide don’t support your rebuttal of Corrosion’s argument. Winston sucked.
 
ClemsonTexan said:
Only it doesn't. If the correlation were really that strong--and Watson is still a big play or bust player in 2020--then why was he ranked 15th in NY/A in 2018 but ranked 2nd in the same category in 2020? You can't have it both ways. If it is indeed the case that NY/A correlated to a "big play or bust narrative," then we would expect Watson to be ranked around where he was the past couple of seasons, not ranked 2nd.

If there's any one stat that has great explanatory power, it's NY/A. It's similar to points per possession in the NBA. At the end of the day, how many yards are you netting your team with each drop back? No single stat is perfect or comprehensive, but NY/A is a fairly decent one.
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The "adjusted" net yards per pass attempt is also a good one. It takes into account passing TDs and INTs.

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thunderkyss said:
first let me say I appreciate the last few posts you’ve made in this thread. Sound logical arguments. However you got me thinking about Winston & wondering what his NY/A was.


So I found this article on Winston. I may very well be wrong but at first quick read, it sounds like none of the arguments you’ve presented hold water. Granted that comes from an uninformed opinion of Jamies Winston’s effectiveness as a QB.

Again, I just read through your arguments & read through this article. I didn’t study them, but I believe the gist is the stats you provide don’t support your rebuttal of Corrosion’s argument. Winston sucked.
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There were two slightly different, but related, criticisms I was addressing. I'll address them in reverse order.

First, there's been the criticism that Watson does not throw with anticipation and does not throw receivers open. This criticism doesn't make sense because he racks up big yards with a high completion % and a low turnover rate. In other words, how can you throw downfield in the NFL and have a high completion % and low turnover % without being able to throw with anticipation or throw receivers open? The data belies this criticism. He's the opposite of Winston who threw for big yards in 2019, but also threw a record-smashing 33 interceptions.

Second, there was the criticism that Watson causes a lot of negative or net zero plays through sacks, incomplete passes, etc. For one, he has one of the highest completion percentages among starters in the NFL, so that's not supporting the argument. Additionally, he's netting more yards per passing attempt than any other player not named Mahomes. And on an adjusted basis (ANY/A), accounting for interceptions thrown, Watson ranks 3rd behind only Rodgers and Mahomes. While Winston ranked 8th in NY/A in 2019, he ranked 18th in ANY/A that year with his high INT % effectively wiping out all his positive passing yardage. In the aggregate, Watson's sacks and interceptions are not costing the Texans yardage.

We're essentially at a point where certain posters want a certain narrative to be true but can't exactly find the data to support it. And that's why we're getting comments like "I watch the games" rather anything based on any objective evidence.
 
dream_team said:
The "adjusted" net yards per pass attempt is also a good one. It takes into account passing TDs and INTs.

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Yes, exactly. I mentioned this in my last post.

While no individual statistic--basic, advanced or otherwise--can sum up a player's performance, all statistical data evaluated together usually does. In Watson's case, you have to ignore a lot of data. You basically have to say "I don't care if he's 3rd in passer rating, I don't care if he's 2nd in passing yards, I don't care about anything PFF says, I don't care if he's 2nd in NY/A, I don't care if he's 3rd in ANY/A, I don't care if he's 9th in TD passes, I don't care if he's 26th in INTs among all starting QBs." The only thing detractors have really cited is the Texans' overall record, which is not solely a function of his play, and a few anecdotes about him leaving plays on the field, playing hero ball, "wanting it all" instead of settling for the short pass, etc. We don't even get the decency of a GIF or a play analysis.
 
ClemsonTexan said:
Yes, exactly. I mentioned this in my last post.

While no individual statistic--basic, advanced or otherwise--can sum up a player's performance, all statistical data evaluated together usually does. In Watson's case, you have to ignore a lot of data. You basically have to say "I don't care if he's 3rd in passer rating, I don't care if he's 2nd in passing yards, I don't care about anything PFF says, I don't care if he's 2nd in NY/A, I don't care if he's 3rd in ANY/A, I don't care if he's 9th in TD passes, I don't care if he's 26th in INTs among all starting QBs." The only thing detractors have really cited is the Texans' overall record, which is not solely a function of his play, and a few anecdotes about him leaving plays on the field, playing hero ball, "wanting it all" instead of settling for the short pass, etc. We don't even get the decency of a GIF or a play analysis.
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And with all of this I’m still trying to figure out how they come up with the conclusion of; “he’s not processing things quick enough.” I can see that being the case in years 1-3 but this year. That is not an accurate assessment. Everything that was complained about or quote on quote a concern from his draft scouting report, this season he has improved on. Now does he make mistakes or miss a receiver or make boneheaded play, heck yeah he does. Case in point: the play in which he threw a jump ball to short ash Cooks. That was a very bad decision on his behalf. The smarter play would’ve been tuck and run it to the right in which was a lot of real estate or just throw that thing away.
 
Texansballer74 said:
And with all of this I’m still trying to figure out how they come up with the conclusion of; “he’s not processing things quick enough.” I can see that being the case in years 1-3 but this year. That is not an accurate assessment. Everything that was complained about or quote on quote a concern from his draft scouting report, this season he has improved on. Now does he make mistakes or miss a receiver or make boneheaded play, heck yeah he does. Case in point: the play in which he threw a jump ball to short ash Cooks. That was a very bad decision on his behalf. The smarter play would’ve been tuck and run it to the right in which was a lot of real estate or just throw that thing away.
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Mostly because we're losing. If Watson were a good player, we'd be winning, or so the thinking goes. The odd thing is that the Texans are second only to the Chiefs in passing offense, but 17th in the League in overall offensive yards. Not to mention a defense that ranks second from dead last. But the Texans are losing, and other teams are winning, and the reason for that must be because he's not putting us in the position to win, which would be the case with a QB who processes things more quickly like Jimmy G, Tannehill, Brissett, etc. Watson simply leaves too much on the field despite grading out better than 29 starting QBs according to PFF.

The big "what if" for a long time will be what if Watson was selected with the 3rd pick by the Niners. That's actually where I was hoping he'd end up. That offense would have been devastating. In the long run, though, I think BOB's focus on playing the QB role more traditionally will be a great benefit to him.
 
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Texansballer74 said:
And with all of this I’m still trying to figure out how they come up with the conclusion of; “he’s not processing things quick enough.” I can see that being the case in years 1-3 but this year.
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I don't think that was even true in years 1-3. Year one, he had one of the quickest snaps to throw numbers. Of course, that was a lot of the old college style quick offense.

Last two years, he's been playing a pro offense & I thought he did fine in those quick situations. 2 minute offenses & the like. Of course, those are usually simple reads.

Where he struggled the last couple of years & I believe this year as well, is when the defense is not a WYSIWYG presnap to postsnap. I really think that's a scouting issue as it looks like he's not prepared for the rotations. But he's quickly getting to the "seen everything" stage & is starting to excell.
 
thunderkyss said:
I don't think that was even true in years 1-3. Year one, he had one of the quickest snaps to throw numbers. Of course, that was a lot of the old college style quick offense.
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I have no idea where you guys get your data from. Watson had the longest snap to throw time in the NFL in 2017. Per NFL Next Gen Stats.

2017: 3.10 (last)
2018: 3.01 (35th)
2019: 2.82 (T-21st)
2020: 2.87 (30th)

But there's really not much correlation between ability to process reads and time to throw. Mahomes ranks 28th this season (2.83), only a couple of spots above Watson. When he threw for 50 TDs in 2018 en route to an MVP award, he ranked 31st (2.91). Rodgers is another guy who frequently finds himself at the bottom of this list. Last year, he ranked 34th on this metric (2.88), a full 13 spots below Watson. Russell Wilson is another. On the flipside, you've got guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Dwayne Haskins who get the ball out in a hurry.

This speaks more to mobility and teams scheming around a QB's mobility than it does a QB's ability to process information quickly. A statue like Ben Roethlisberger needs to get rid of the ball in a hurry. A nimble QB like Rodgers or Wilson can buy time in the pocket with their feet. For Big Ben, you need shorter routes and a blocking scheme that accommodates those routes (or more play action). For a more mobile QB like Watson, Mahomes or Wilson, you are going to move the pocket more and call more bootlegs and roll outs. So you just can't look at time to throw. You have to account for the type of player and scheme.
 
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thunderkyss said:
I don't think that was even true in years 1-3. Year one, he had one of the quickest snaps to throw numbers. Of course, that was a lot of the old college style quick offense.

Last two years, he's been playing a pro offense & I thought he did fine in those quick situations. 2 minute offenses & the like. Of course, those are usually simple reads.

Where he struggled the last couple of years & I believe this year as well, is when the defense is not a WYSIWYG presnap to postsnap. I really think that's a scouting issue as it looks like he's not prepared for the rotations. But he's quickly getting to the "seen everything" stage & is starting to excell.
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But wouldn’t you place that blame on coaching as well as the center who also calls out the blocking assignments? Then you have to give credit to the opposing defensive coordinators as well wouldn’t you say. They are mixing it up and confusing both Watson and that offensive line. That’s why the offensive line looks very clueless to who they should be blocking on those designed stunt plays. Another thing we should note is how the defense switches coverages. One minute they’re showing cover 1, then quickly switches to cover 4. How do we expect Watson to process that when the ball has been snapped.
 
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