I'm a big believer in the fewest points allowed in the regular season.
Defensive rankings are really only applicable dating back to Super Bowl 5, because the first four were meetings of the AFL and NFL champions. The leagues didn’t play each other during the regular season at that point, and the defensive rankings were split.
So since the Super Bowl in January 1971:
The team that allowed fewer points in the regular season is 35-17 (that doesn’t include Super Bowl 39, because the Eagles and Patriots each allowed exactly 260 points).
They are 8-2 out of the last 10 SBs. So if every year you bet $100 dollars straight up on the team that allowed the fewest points in the season that made it to the Super Bowl you would be way up. I've yet to find a stat that predicted more consistent SB wins (would be very interested if anybody knows one) down through the years.
Defensive rankings are really only applicable dating back to Super Bowl 5, because the first four were meetings of the AFL and NFL champions. The leagues didn’t play each other during the regular season at that point, and the defensive rankings were split.
So since the Super Bowl in January 1971:
The team that allowed fewer points in the regular season is 35-17 (that doesn’t include Super Bowl 39, because the Eagles and Patriots each allowed exactly 260 points).
They are 8-2 out of the last 10 SBs. So if every year you bet $100 dollars straight up on the team that allowed the fewest points in the season that made it to the Super Bowl you would be way up. I've yet to find a stat that predicted more consistent SB wins (would be very interested if anybody knows one) down through the years.