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Texans Wide Receivers

Speedy said:
Facts are not an agenda.



Everyone else not named Collins who was targeted in that same game combined for a 63% catch rate. While Collins was at 30%. I’m not saying he couldn’t benefit from a better QB but somebody on that team wasn’t constantly being overthrown and were making some catches.



Again, others had a much better catch rate. Moore at 64% for example. Only Phillip Dorsett, Brevin Jordan, Quitoriano and OJ Howard had a worse catch rate than Nico did.

Look, if y’all want to fight tooth and nail for a mediocre receiver, more power to you. I won’t be dying on that hill.
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Nobody is going tooth and nails with you. They’re saying when he was targeted, a lot of the times the quarterback either threw at his feet or way over his head. That’s a fact too.
 
JB said:
Why so much effort put in on a WR that has a total of 70 catches for 927 yards with 3 TD's? Just shows how pathetic the receiving group of the Texans is. Collins averages 1 TD every 8 games... that sucks
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That wasn’t because of him only. The entire offense sucked, especially the quarterbacks and play caller. The only bright side was DP and he had 3 horrendous games.,, mainly because of the offensive line.
 
JB said:
Why so much effort put in on a WR that has a total of 70 catches for 927 yards with 3 TD's? Just shows how pathetic the receiving group of the Texans is. Collins averages 1 TD every 8 games... that sucks
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Good points.

Ima go resurrect a Davis Mills thread.
 
Texansballer74 said:
Nobody is going tooth and nails with you. They’re saying when he was targeted, a lot of the times the quarterback either threw at his feet or way over his head. That’s a fact too.
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Never said QB wasn't an issue. But other guys are catching balls from that same QB.
 
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Speedy said:
Never said QB wasn't an issue. But other guys are catching balls from that same QB.
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You do know it’s always going to be different correct. Those QB’s probably had a better chemistry with those receivers. Are you even factoring that into the equation?
It’s almost like people have to be right verses saying I see what you’re saying.
I get mixed up with that as well sometimes .
 
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Speedy said:
Never said QB wasn't an issue. But other guys are catching balls from that same QB.
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Not every throw from the same QB are the same.
Mills' highest bad throw percentage may affect one receiver more than others.
Not all the receivers get the same percentage of bad throws from Mills.

We have brought up at least 3 games where Collins saw some 40% uncatchable from Mills.

I had also pointed out that Collins had only one drop last year; the lowest among the Texans' receiver.

There's a reason why Collins' number was dialed up second only to Cooks on a per game basis.
No OC/HC would call plays for a receiver that can't catch the ball.
 
Texansballer74 said:
You do know it’s going always be different correct. Those QB’s probably had a better chemistry with those receivers. Are you even factoring that into the equation?
It’s almost like people have to be right verses saying I see what you’re saying.
I get mixed up with that as well sometimes .
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You realize receivers routes might not be run properly or as sharp as they should or they are simply not on the same page, right? Collins did miss an entire year of football.

So there’s a lot of factors but the results are what they are. SO FAR, Collins ain’t all that. And let’s not forget all the excuses people make around here for Mills. The scheme, working with 2 different OCs in 2 seasons, the OL, blah, blah, blah. Turns out he’s just not very good and the excuses are just that. Excuses.

76Texan said:
Not every throw from the same QB are the same.
Mills' highest bad throw percentage may affect one receiver more than others.
Not all the receivers get the same percentage of bad throws from Mills.

We have brought up at least 3 games where Collins saw some 40% uncatchable from Mills.

I had also pointed out that Collins had only one drop last year; the lowest among the Texans' receiver.

There's a reason why Collins' number was dialed up second only to Cooks on a per game basis.
No OC/HC would call plays for a receiver that can't catch the ball.
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Man, Collins just must have the worst luck ever. All of the QB’s bad throws go his way. Poor fella.
 
JB said:
Why so much effort put in on a WR that has a total of 70 catches for 927 yards with 3 TD's? Just shows how pathetic the receiving group of the Texans is. Collins averages 1 TD every 8 games... that sucks
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The Texans averaged 1.2 passing TD's per game over the last two years (41 TDs in 34 games). Where were all of these TD's that he was supposed to catch?

You do you, but I'm not calling a 3rd round pick trash that has had some injury issues and horrible QB play in his two seasons. There is still a lot more upside than downside with Nico in this new system.
 
Speedy said:
Never said QB wasn't an issue. But other guys are catching balls from that same QB.
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Dude, we've already shown you the stats that his catch rate was almost 70% outside of three games this season. If you want to criticize him for those three games, have at it. Totally deserved.

But to say he doesn't catch the ball as a consistent attribute he displays in every game is like saying that Pierce can't run the ball because he had two games with 8 yards.
 
sandman said:
The Texans averaged 1.2 passing TD's per game over the last two years (41 TDs in 34 games). Where were all of these TD's that he was supposed to catch?

You do you, but I'm not calling a 3rd round pick trash that has had some injury issues and horrible QB play in his two seasons. There is still a lot more upside than downside with Nico in this new system.
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Exactly
 
Speedy said:
You realize receivers routes might not be run properly or as sharp as they should or they are simply not on the same page, right? Collins did miss an entire year of football.

So there’s a lot of factors but the results are what they are. SO FAR, Collins ain’t all that. And let’s not forget all the excuses people make around here for Mills. The scheme, working with 2 different OCs in 2 seasons, the OL, blah, blah, blah. Turns out he’s just not very good and the excuses are just that. Excuses.



Man, Collins just must have the worst luck ever. All of the QB’s bad throws go his way. Poor fella.
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You only need a few bad throws more than the others to change the percentage in a small sample size.

And I was never the one to make excuses for Mills; it's the opposite, and I have the number to prove it: highest percentage of bad passes.
 
Hey I saw another stat I enjoy, in yards per route run Nico Collins was 37th among eligible receivers (1.68) even with one of the worst QB situations in football! This was higher than guys like Allen Lazard (1.61), Courtland Sutton (1.55), DJ Chark (1.47), Adam Thielen (1.06), and my favorite Brandin Cooks (1.64). Also in the same range as guys like Deebo Samuel (1.69), DJ Moore (1.74), and Chris Godwin (1.76).

That lines up with where he was ranked in YPG as well. Give this man a real QB let’s see what we got.

Also please don’t tell my boss I’m looking at PFF stats it’s a Friday I’m checked out
 
Speedy said:
I use stats to back up what my eyes see. How many games has Collins had an impact on in his career to this point? You can probably count them in a couple of fingers if that much.





If you want to go by that ONE game then fine. You win. Again though, Chris freaking Moore had a 64% catch rate. Nico? 56%. And again, only Dorsett, Jordan, Quitoriano and Howard had worse catch rates than Nico. How’s that for context?
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Using stats only, had Collins been healthy, he would have amassed 818 yards last year, good for 34th in the league.
That's high end no. 2 receiver production.
 
Lucky said:
But he hasn't been. Collins has #2 WR potential that has yet to be reached. Clearly, the Texans need more help at the position.
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The original point was about whether he's legit no. 2 or just a mediocre one.
Availability is not the point of discussion.
 
Rookie season he missed 3 games and last year he missed 7. Last year he missed 2 in the middle of the year and then missed the last 5 games of the year.

My guess is we started shutting down every young player who got even a scratch at the end of last year. Happened with Stingley, Pierce, and I think Collins. If we had been in playoff contention I’m guessing all of them would have been active for that final stretch.

But either way health is a concern and if he misses any more than a couple games this next year you’d probably have to think about moving on
 
76Texan said:
Using stats only, had Collins been healthy, he would have amassed 818 yards last year, good for 34th in the league.
That's high end no. 2 receiver production.
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Projections are not actual results. Being on the field is part of the equation. With Collins out last year, Chris Moore as WR2 averaged 4.2 receptions and 46.8 yards per game. If you want to play the extrapolation game, that comes out to 71 catches for 796 yards compared to Nico's 68 for 818. So I don't know what everyone thinks of Moore but if you're saying Collins is a high end #2, then does that mean Moore is too?

And being on the field does matter. All Pros and Pro Bowlers aren't named for extrapolated stats, they're named for actual results. Nico has yet to have a 40 reception season or a 500 yard season. That's far from high end #2 production.
 
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Speedy said:
Projections are not actual results. Being on the field is part of the equation. With Collins out last year, Chris Moore as WR2 averaged 4.2 receptions and 46.8 yards per game. If you want to play the extrapolation game, that comes out to 71 catches for 796 yards compared to Nico's 68 for 818. So I don't know what everyone thinks of Moore but if you're saying Collins is a high end #2, then does that mean Moore is too?

And being on the field does matter. All Pros and Pro Bowlers aren't named for extrapolated stats, they're named for actual results. Nico has yet to have a 40 reception season or a 500 yard season. That's far from high end #2 production.
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Chris Moore averaged 36.5 YPG.

I don’t think anyone’s arguing that health isn’t an issue for Collins. He needs to stay on the field more and if he can’t then that’s a big issue. We’re talking about play on the field here
 
Number19 said:
This.

With our current receivers, if he comes back 100%, this could be Metchie, if we draft Young. In the red zone inside the 10 yd line, it could be Collins or Schultz.
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IIRC, and I could be wrong, Metchie was expected to go in the 1st round before his knee injury
 
Lucky said:
In real life, it is. Nico Collins production has not been at the level of a NFL #2 WR, thus far in his career. That's the bottom line, is it not?
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If availability was included, I would not have entered the conversation to begin with.
 
Speedy said:
Projections are not actual results. Being on the field is part of the equation. With Collins out last year, Chris Moore as WR2 averaged 4.2 receptions and 46.8 yards per game. If you want to play the extrapolation game, that comes out to 71 catches for 796 yards compared to Nico's 68 for 818. So I don't know what everyone thinks of Moore but if you're saying Collins is a high end #2, then does that mean Moore is too?

And being on the field does matter. All Pros and Pro Bowlers aren't named for extrapolated stats, they're named for actual results. Nico has yet to have a 40 reception season or a 500 yard season. That's far from high end #2 production.
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Both 70 receptions and 800 yards puts you in the top 40 receivers for each category. So I guess the answer is yes?
 
sandman said:
The Texans averaged 1.2 passing TD's per game over the last two years (41 TDs in 34 games). Where were all of these TD's that he was supposed to catch?

You do you, but I'm not calling a 3rd round pick trash that has had some injury issues and horrible QB play in his two seasons. There is still a lot more upside than downside with Nico in this new system.
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Where did I say he's trash? 1 TD every 8 games sucks. 41TD's every 34 games sucks. I just don't understand all the back and forth over a JAG and that's all Collins is to this point
 
JB said:
Where did I say he's trash? 1 TD every 8 games sucks. 41TD's every 34 games sucks. I just don't understand all the back and forth over a JAG and that's all Collins is to this point
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I know this conversation would be better in the Texans Wide Receivers thread - oh wait...

You can agree to disagree, but we are not having a Nico lovefest. It's a pretty honest assessment of where he is at in his career:

1. Availability has been an issue with 10 missed games
2. Had a few bad games but overall isn't a "bad hands" guy
3. The QB situation had a lot to do with his production
4. He isn't and never was intended to be WR1 on this team
5. They invested a 3rd round pick and two other lower round picks, so don't give up on the investment after year 2 considering #1 and #3
6. IF he can stay on the field and IF the Texans have a good QB, he has the measurables and potential to greatly exceed his production

That's it. No All-Pro talk. No WR1 talks. Nothing other than potential to be a solid WR2 and valuable contributor to the offense.

And you've called him a JAG multiple times. Maybe we have a different definition of what a Just A Guy actually is, other than a churning on the bottom of the roster and easily replaceable limited skills player. In other words... trash.
 
sandman said:
And you've called him a JAG multiple times. Maybe we have a different definition of what a Just A Guy actually is, other than a churning on the bottom of the roster and easily replaceable limited skills player. In other words... trash.
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Just a guy to me is an average player. Nothing more and nothing less. I see I've hit a nerve in you about Collins so I'll just back away and resume my IDGAF about it
 
JB said:
Just a guy to me is an average player. Nothing more and nothing less. I see I've hit a nerve in you about Collins so I'll just back away and resume my IDGAF about it
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First, no nerves hit on my end. Any more than you sounding frustrated that we are talking about him. We are just dudes on a football MB. No harm no foul and it is beer time.

And appreciate the clarification of your view of a JAG. I'll retract the trash extrapolation.
 
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Steven Sims added to WR room, though I think he was mainly signed for his ability as a KR/PR. He averaged 3.5 yards more per KR than Tremon Smith in 2022 (25.5 vs 22). But Desmond King was the superior PR. (9.4 vs 5.5).

I’d love to see Tank Dell in a Texans uniform. Maybe they can get him at 104. Electric returner and a field stretcher! Depends on how the board falls and how good Frank Ross feels about Sims/King in those roles.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Steven Sims added to WR room, though I think he was mainly signed for his ability as a KR/PR. He averaged 3.5 yards more per KR than Tremon Smith in 2022 (25.5 vs 22). But Desmond King was the superior PR. (9.4 vs 5.5).

I’d love to see Tank Dell in a Texans uniform. Maybe they can get him at 104. Electric returner and a field stretcher! Depends on how the board falls and how good Frank Ross feels about Sims/King in those roles.
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I think these moves eliminate similar moves in the draft.
 
Nico Collins as do other players needs to show up and show out in TC and spring training or bye-bye. I want at least 2 WRs in draft and at least one more RB who can catch if not two.
 
badboy said:
Nico Collins as do other players needs to show up and show out in TC and spring training or bye-bye. I want at least 2 WRs in draft and at least one more RB who can catch if not two.
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Congrats - Almost responding to me. Still a generic take. Are you over it?
 
badboy said:
Nico Collins as do other players needs to show up and show out in TC and spring training or bye-bye. I want at least 2 WRs in draft and at least one more RB who can catch if not two.
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There is ZERO chance Nico Collins will get cut from the final 53.
 
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sandman said:
There is ZERO chance Nico Collins will get cut from the final 53.
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With new OC and scheme plus Stroud or Young, Collins needs to be thrown to a lot to find out what he is. Two seasons avg 2 catches a game is horrible. You are probably correct but new regime and minimal dead $ no reason to keep him if no huge improvement by preseason.
 
badboy said:
With new OC and scheme plus Stroud or Young, Collins needs to be thrown to a lot to find out what he is. Two seasons avg 2 catches a game is horrible. You are probably correct but new regime and minimal dead $ no reason to keep him if no huge improvement by preseason.
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Collins averaged 3.7 receptions per game last season. He played in 10 games. He’ll be traded before he’s cut outright. But he’s one of the more likely players to make the team.
 
powda said:
I like Nico. I like him a lot. Serious potential. He just needs the right boot in his azz.
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It’s going on year three. While he hasn’t proven to be what we hoped. The signs are there.

This one has to be a win for Nick or his ability to “pick’em” will be tenuous at best. Kinda start questioning his value to the organization if you’re not already.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Collins averaged 3.7 receptions per game last season. He played in 10 games. He’ll be traded before he’s cut outright. But he’s one of the more likely players to make the team.
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We obviously can't predict the future. But we can create scenarios that help us understand what could realistically happen.

Let's assume no increased production in terms of targets, catch rate and yards per game. That he didn't improve his craft from last season and that the QB's whomever they may be do not improve either.

But assume he did improve his availability by playing in 16 of 17 games. Because we can't assume a guy that has missed games each season won't miss a single one.

That's like a 60/800 season. I'd gladly take that from a WR2. Outside of a year or two from Fuller, there hasn't been that type of production from a WR2 since AJ and DHop were playing together.

I do understand that there is just as much risk that he misses several games this year as he did last year. And if that were to happen, I think three years of availability issues is a fair indictment and time to move on. But getting this guy on the field makes this team better. Which is why IMO they are giving him the season to prove himself.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Collins averaged 3.7 receptions per game last season. He played in 10 games. He’ll be traded before he’s cut outright. But he’s one of the more likely players to make the team.
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Yep less than one catch per quarter for #2 WR. Trade? I just blew Sprite through my nose.
 
sandman said:
3.7 catches per game equates to 63 catches for a season. That would have been 37th best among WRs this last season so not sure what you are expecting of a WR2.
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63 catches projects 17 games from Collins. Why would you assume that? If Collins gives them 2/3 of a season, that’s #3 WR production, at best. You can hope Collins stays for 17 games, but that’s not something that can be planned for.
 
Lucky said:
63 catches projects 17 games from Collins. Why would you assume that? If Collins gives them 2/3 of a season, that’s #3 WR production, at best. You can hope Collins stays for 17 games, but that’s not something that can be planned for.
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The premise was that 3.7 receptions per game was poor production for a WR2. Had nothing to do with Collins playing 17 games. It had to do with what 3.7 receptions a game gets you. Which was a Top 40 receiver, which I think defines a WR2.
 
sandman said:
The premise was that 3.7 receptions per game was poor production for a WR2. Had nothing to do with Collins playing 17 games. It had to do with what 3.7 receptions a game gets you. Which was a Top 40 receiver, which I think defines a WR2.
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But Collins has not performed to the level of a #2 WR, over his 2 NFL seasons. Could he? Possibly. But he has not played to that level.

4 games over 65 yards receiving in 2 seasons. Zero 100 yard games.
3 TD receptions in 2 seasons.
927 yards of receptions over 2 seasons.

Those are journeyman numbers.
 
Lucky said:
But Collins has not performed to the level of a #2 WR, over his 2 NFL seasons. Could he? Possibly. But he has not played to that level.

4 games over 65 yards receiving in 2 seasons. Zero 100 yard games.
3 TD receptions in 2 seasons.
927 yards of receptions over 2 seasons.

Those are journeyman numbers.
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But I wasn't responding to a comment about Collins' career stats. I was responding to your implied comment that 3.7 receptions per game was not good for a WR2.

badboy said:
Yep less than one catch per quarter for #2 WR. Trade? I just blew Sprite through my nose.
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Averaging 4 catches and 50 yards a game is a top 40 WR. I didn't say Collins was a top 40 WR. I'm merely pointing out that his current level of production with greater availability would make him one. Which of course, is not guaranteed.
 
sandman said:
But I wasn't responding to a comment about Collins' career stats. I was responding to your implied comment that 3.7 receptions per game was not good for a WR2.



Averaging 4 catches and 50 yards a game is a top 40 WR. I didn't say Collins was a top 40 WR. I'm merely pointing out that his current level of production with greater availability would make him one. Which of course, is not guaranteed.
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i mean...then you have to take into account who was throwing to him, the offense which was not great & the overall team situation.
 
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