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Texans random thought of the day

Thorn said:
And besides, everyone keeps talking about getting more draft picks.

You're picking humans from draft stock. Humans are notorious for being less than what you expect.
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That's why you want more picks. It's a lottery. Do you have a better chance of winning with more tickets, or less?
 
Lucky said:
A draft pick becomes a player. A player on a cheaper, longer contract.
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Lucky said:
That's why you want more picks. It's a lottery. Do you have a better chance of winning with more tickets, or less?
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1. Draft pick doesn’t mean better player. Cheaper and longer contract. But doesn’t guarantee better player. You will have a talent gap at WR. You have to replace the talent of Cooks. That ain’t easy. Plus you have to wait for that player to be able to play at a high level. Hopkins didn’t start playing at a high level until his second year.

2. The math isn’t that straight forward. You have a better chance, but that doesn’t mean it’s substantially better. If your odds are 1 in 292,201,338. Buying 2 tickets gives you odds of 2 in 292,201,338. (Lottery odds)

You still have better odds of getting killed by a vending machine.
 
Lucky said:
You're going to have to replace the talent of Cooks in a year, anyway.

There are 260 tickets in the NFL lottery. And maybe you should stay away from vending machines.
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It’s not about Cooks being gone. It’s about Mills a talented WR to throw to. We will find out if Nico is that guy this year. Same with Mills.

You don’t know if Cooks will be gone. He could sign a 1 year deal. We hand those out like tic tacs.

And the odds aren’t 1 in 260. Thats just looking at drafting someone who can fog a spoon. It’s about drafting a player of Cooks talent and replacing that same year. Those odds are substantially higher.

Which WR in the draft is going to do that this year?

And you can only use our 6th round draft picks. That is where the talent is found…
 
Lucky said:
I more or less want to play poker with you guys. OK, it's really just more.
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Poker? Really?

I guess that’s where the difference in opinion is.

In my opinion playing arm chair GM will require more strategy, bargaining and planning. Like Risk or Monopoly.

I guess that is why so many opinions after a trade is done are all over the place.
 
Lucky said:
The Texans could trade Cooks this year, and still sign him in 2023. And I still want to play poker with you.
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I don’t have the need to prove anything to anyone by playing a card game.

But if I were you I would start trying to figure out how math works. The fact that you thought the probability was 1 in 260 of replacing a player like Cooks was pretty funny. It gave me a good laugh. Thanks.
 
I'm kind of torn on this. If we could get a 2nd round pick for him, normally, I would take it. An extra 2nd should guarantee that we are able to get either Christian Watson or Alec Pierce. Additionally, the game that Cooks was out was one of Mills best games. Since he didn't have that one WR to throw to, he spread the ball around. Without Cooks, Mills will have a better chance to build rapport with all of his other receivers.

However, Cooks has stated that he didn't want to be traded again, and if the Texans have promised him that they wouldn't trade him, I'm not going to trade him. The Texans are not only trying to rebuild the team, they are also trying to rebuild their image, and if they trade Cooks after telling him they weren't going to, they will look like douches, and lose what respect they have gained this past season.
 
Lucky said:
And I still want to play poker with you.
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This is just a less obvious way of saying that you think you're smarter than them. Or us, depending on who you're referring to.

But it might be a fun idea. We could choose an app and play online
 
michaelm said:
This is just a less obvious way of saying that you think you're smarter than them. Or us, depending on who you're referring to.

But it might be a fun idea. We could choose an app and play online
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As smart as a person thinks they are they still can’t tell me who they would replace Cooks with in the draft.

Oh well. I guess I will go back to playing solitaire.
 
amazing80 said:
Bigger risk. If you trade for a player that is already in the nfl and good you have little risk.
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Because we never see a vet regress going from one organization to another?

The length of contract is the essential point of contention. How many years left on the vet's contract? One? Two? The Texans will not be ready to contend until that player's deal is up. The drafted player will still have 2 years left on his rookie deal.

If the Texans were ready to contend, a player for player deal could make sense. They're not. The rebuild is ongoing. If Cooks is to be dealt, it only makes sense for picks.
 
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TexansBull said:
Everything you say makes sense. I am willing to admit that I may be in the wrong.

I like the idea of an extra draft pick, but I haven’t heard of a WR to take Cooks place. Nico is still hope and promise. If none of the WRs are worth anything how can we grade Mills?

And Mills is in a make it or break it year. I would rather err on the side of caution and lose out on the 5 million savings and draft pick.

I don’t want there to be any excuses for keeping Mills around.

See the David Carr example. He was kept longer than needed because he needed this or that.
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I don't think that next year is a make or break yr for Mills. He showed enough when he outplayed Herbert that if he doesn't crap the bed next yr shouldn't be aake or break yr.

Keep Cooks and if you let him walk after next yr, you will get a 2024 compensatory pick, most likely a 3rd order.
 
steelbtexan said:
I don't think that next year is a make or break yr for Mills. He showed enough when he outplayed Herbert that if he doesn't crap the bed next yr shouldn't be aake or break yr.

Keep Cooks and if you let him walk after next yr, you will get a 2024 compensatory pick, most likely a 3rd order.
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Compensatory pick is not guaranteed. If Texans are big spenders in FA as expected then their signings would cancel out a Cooks departure.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Compensatory pick is not guaranteed. If Texans are big spenders in FA as expected then their signings would cancel out a Cooks departure.
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I would be thrilled if the Calhoun's we're big spenders for premium talent in fa, it would be so out of character. If they signed a couple of top tier fa's I would look at it as if Caserio traded Cooks for top tier fa's.
 
steelbtexan said:
I would be thrilled if the Calhoun's we're big spenders for premium talent in fa, it would be so out of character. If they signed a couple of top tier fa's I would look at it as if Caserio traded Cooks for top tier fa's.
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The McNairs spend money and are not cheap. They have bid before on premium FA talent. They don’t throw stupid money like the Browns, and have lost out on those players not wanting to play for an expansion team.
 
steelbtexan said:
If Cooks has another season like he had last year a 3rd should be expected.
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Stats have nothing to do with it. It's the AAV of the contract signed. Can you tell me the cutoff AAV for a 3rd round comp pick in this years allocation?
 
Lucky said:
Stats have nothing to do with it. It's the AAV of the contract signed. Can you tell me the cutoff AAV for a 3rd round comp pick in this years allocation?
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Nope, but Cooks will get paid if he has another yr like he had last year. I could see a team like the Colts/Eagles/Bears paying top dollar for a guy like Cooks.
 
Lucky said:
You're going to have to replace the talent of Cooks in a year, anyway.

There are 260 tickets in the NFL lottery. And maybe you should stay away from vending machines.
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We seriously need to properly evaluate Mills.
Keeping Cooks will leave less excuses for Mills if he fails.
Every top QB has a favorite target. Sure, a new guy will no doubt become his new favourite, but if it's a rookie, how long before they develop that rapour?
Think about it.
 
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thunderkyss said:
This is where I'm at.

I don't want to trade Cooks. But I'll trade him if I can get excellent value for him.

We're either going to trust our talent evaluators or not. That's the future of the team. Not the players themselves.
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This was approach I had for Tunsil and any player for that matter. Often fans are caught up in the players as if part of family.
 
Thorn said:
And besides, everyone keeps talking about getting more draft picks. Since when did draft picks become such a sure thing in people's minds? If you can score on half your draft picks you're doing good. Even if you have the best talent evaluators in the business, that doesn't mean that their picks will all pan out.

You're picking humans from draft stock. Humans are notorious for being less than what you expect.
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They are not sure things but draft is considered by many best way to build and improve a team. Some look at this season only and others plan for future years in which new players with good contracts will play huge benefits.
 
Texansphan said:
We seriously need to properly evaluate Mills.
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We don't need Cooks for that.

If stats are a big part of your evaluation I can understand wanting Cooks.

But we should be able to tell if his arm is strong enough, how accurate he is, & the quality of his decision making whether Cooks is out there or not. I'm most impressed that he performed as well as he did (even considering the stats) with the team he played on last season.

I'd be more impressed if he threw for 3,000 yards & 24 TDs without Cooks than if he threw 4,200 yards 30 TDs with Cooks.
 
Texansphan said:
We seriously need to properly evaluate Mills.
Keeping Cooks will leave less excuses for Mills if he fails.
Every top QB has a favorite target. Sure, a new guy will no doubt become his new favourite, but if it's a rookie, how long before they develop that rapour?
Think about it.
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Why couldn't one of the 'old' guys Mills played with last season? Nico Collins, Chris Moore and Jordan could be his new best friend.
 
badboy said:
is your best offensive weapon getting you to playoffs this season? Does he protect your QB better than a starting OG?
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It's not about getting to the playoffs next yr. It's about helping Mills develop. Can you find a starting OG at 68? I think I could.

You must be unsure of your ability to evaluate.
 
badboy said:
They are not sure things but draft is considered by many best way to build and improve a team. Some look at this season only and others plan for future years in which new players with good contracts will play huge benefits.
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Bean counting won't help Mills develop. Yes, the draft is part of the equation to improve your team. Also trades/FA can improve your team as the Rams have proven.

You wanna help Mills improve, you keep Cooks around. It's worth losing him after this season and taking a comp pick. That's if you want Mills to develop properly.

The only way I want Cooks traded is for a 2nd that can be used with 13 to trade up and get Stingley or 1 of the pass rushers and I really don't want to do that.
 
Y'all seriously think a rookie or Nico Collins is going to help convert those 3rd and longs to keep Mills on the field like Cooks can?

No. You don't. And neither do I.
Cooks will help extend drives better than any current player or draft pick will. I don't think it's debatable.
 
thunderkyss said:
We don't need Cooks for that.

If stats are a big part of your evaluation I can understand wanting Cooks.

But we should be able to tell if his arm is strong enough, how accurate he is, & the quality of his decision making whether Cooks is out there or not. I'm most impressed that he performed as well as he did (even considering the stats) with the team he played on last season.

I'd be more impressed if he threw for 3,000 yards & 24 TDs without Cooks than if he threw 4,200 yards 30 TDs with Cooks.
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Well then Mills already made your criteria, we saw all of the things you listed from Mills last year.
 
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