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Texans random thought of the day

Extra point success rate down to 92.5 percent, lowest since 1979
December 9, 2021, 8:05 AM EST

The success rate on extra points is the lowest this season that it has been since straight-on kickers were wearing single-bar facemasks.

Heading into Week 14, the league-wide extra point rate for the 2021 season is 92.5 percent. That’s the lowest mark since 1979, when kickers made 91.3 percent of extra points.

The NFL moved extra point kicks back by 13 yards in 2015, which made the kicks noticeably harder, but there was a widespread belief at the time that kickers would adjust and improve. That hasn’t happened. Here’s the extra point success rate for each of the last eight seasons, dating back to the last season before the NFL made extra points harder:

2021: 92.5 percent heading into Week 14.
2020: 93.0 percent.
2019: 93.9 percent.
2018: 94.3 percent.
2017: 94.0 percent.
2016: 93.6 percent.
2015: 94.2 percent.
2014: 99.3 percent.

Far from kickers getting better at the longer extra points with time to adjust, they have actually gotten worse. And this year’s accuracy rate is more likely to go down than go up in the final weeks of the season, as kicking gets a little more difficult as weather turns colder.

The team with the league’s worst extra point rate is the Texans, who are just 13-for-17 this season, or 76.5 percent. The Jets, Saints, Chargers and Jaguars are all under 85 percent this season, a success rate that would have been considered unthinkably bad before the 2015 rule change. Five teams are perfect on extra points this season: The Bills, Eagles, Ravens, Falcons and Giants.

One piece of good news for football fans is that coaches may be noticing, and going for two more often: In 2021 teams are going for two on 11 percent of touchdowns, compared to 9 percent of touchdowns in 2020 and 8 percent of touchdowns in 2019. Perhaps coaches are starting to recognize that the extra point kick is no gimme, and that if they’re on the fence between kicking and going for two, they should go for two. The two-point conversion is a much more exciting play than the extra point, and so kickers’ lack of success on extra points may prove to make the NFL more exciting.
 
Thorn said:
Bottom Feeders Club schedules for rest of the season:

Detroit: Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks, Packers
Houston: Seahawks, Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers, Titans
Jacksonville: Titans, Texans, Jets, Patriots, Colts

It's unlikely that Detroit gets another win, but they might if the Packers take their last week off. Or they pull off a road upset at Denver, which I doubt.

Houston and Jacksonville play each other, so one of the two gets another win. Jacksonville, unless they beat the Texans, will likely not win any more, and that same thought goes for the Texans as well. The Texans/Jags game is a home game for Jacksonville, so I'll give them the nod.

And after all that, my prediction is the Texans end up with the number two pick in the draft. We shall see.
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I think Atlanta and Seattle are winnable games for the Lions. If the Texans don't win again, the Lions just have to win 1 to pass them.

The biggest game in Texans history, the Jags game, I think is the only chance the Texans have to win the rest of the way. Possibly Tennessee if they've got nothing to play for.

Jacksonville has a chance to win 2 against the Texans and the Jets.

I think the Texans have a pretty good shot at getting #1.
 
Speedy said:
I think Atlanta and Seattle are winnable games for the Lions. If the Texans don't win again, the Lions just have to win 1 to pass them.

The biggest game in Texans history, the Jags game, I think is the only chance the Texans have to win the rest of the way. Possibly Tennessee if they've got nothing to play for.

Jacksonville has a chance to win 2 against the Texans and the Jets.

I think the Texans have a pretty good shot at getting #1.
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But do we want it?
No one wants to pay the price for a trade when there is no slam dunk QB.
Now pick #2, that won't be as expensive so trade partners may be easier to find.
 
I might as well go ahead and get this out of the way. LET THE SUCK BEGIN, for Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, Alabama QB. It looks like Game Boy; The Preacher and The File Clerk have the working game plan to make that in happen in the 2023 NFL Draft.

The question is, will Young refuse to play for the Texans???
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
The unreported "knee sprain" is an MCL sprain. The reporter tries to differentiate a tear vs a sprain............in both instances, there is tearing of the ligament structures. Being a noncontact injury, it is most likely a grade II, not a grade I as is being implied. You aren't carted off the field for a grade I MCL. Most fans do not know, but MCL injuries like ACL injuries can occur by direct contact or by non-contact (when an athlete is running or jumping and then suddenly slows and changes direction or twists). Aug 3, 2019, Grugier-Hill sustained a serious grade III MCL tear at a TC. He went on to miss 3 games at the beginning of the regular season.
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I'm just glad he wasn't as hurt as it first looked.

Could it be that Easterby laid healing hands on him in your professional opinion?
 
Texans safe from being first pick in the draft - that honor will go to the Jags.
In reality, we don't really want it, imho.
 
There are 3-4 players similarly rated this year that could interchangeably go #1. No slam dunk franchise QB. My hope is that the Texans take one of those bluechipper non QBs or trade down instead of staying put and reaching on a QB.

Would not mind seeing them go QB top of round 2 or trading into back of round 1 however depending on how the draft shakes out. Give the team a healthy young QB competition going into next season. No reason to just hand over the job to Mills, a 3rd round pick who has played like one.
 
TheRealJoker said:
There are 3-4 players similarly rated this year that could interchangeably go #1. No slam dunk franchise QB. My hope is that the Texans take one of those bluechipper non QBs or trade down instead of staying put and reaching on a QB.

Would not mind seeing them go QB top of round 2 or trading into back of round 1 however depending on how the draft shakes out. Give the team a healthy young QB competition going into next season. No reason to just hand over the job to Mills, a 3rd round pick who has played like one.
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He has looked better than Lawrence and has the stats to back it up and yet has not had the same amount of experience starting.
I am not ready to give up on him yet, but it would be wise to bring in some decent competition - iron sharpens iron.
 
Texansphan said:
He has looked better than Lawrence and has the stats to back it up and yet has not had the same amount of experience starting.
I am not ready to give up on him yet, but it would be wise to bring in some decent competition - iron sharpens iron.
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Absolutely. He has done well for where he was drafted and its fair to assume he’ll improve in year 2 with a new OC and improved talent.

But like @steelbtexan said when he was drafted, “You should pick QB every year until its clear you have your franchise QB. “With Mills, it isn’t clear yet whether he’s a long term answer. But he has earned the right to compete for the starting QB job.
 
Texansphan said:
He has looked better than Lawrence and has the stats to back it up and yet has not had the same amount of experience starting.
I am not ready to give up on him yet, but it would be wise to bring in some decent competition - iron sharpens iron.
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I would say let him start next year. See what happens. Get him a running and extra support on the line. Either he surprises people and we have a QB for another year, or we have a top 10 pick and can draft a QB next year.

This upcoming QB draft sounds weak. We could use the draft picks on filling holes. Instead of drafting a QB just to draft.

Look at the jags. They drafted 1st and got a QB and can draft another with the 1st this year.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Absolutely. He has done well for where he was drafted and its fair to assume he’ll improve in year 2 with a new OC and improved talent.

But like @steelbtexan said when he was drafted, “You should pick QB every year until its clear you have your franchise QB. “With Mills, it isn’t clear yet whether he’s a long term answer. But he has earned the right to compete for the starting QB job.
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Yep - and for this reason, I would not be surprised if NC takes a QB with our first.
It is also for this reason I hope we move DW4 and have an extra first (or two) to play with this draft.
 
Texansphan said:
He has looked better than Lawrence and has the stats to back it up and yet has not had the same amount of experience starting.
I am not ready to give up on him yet, but it would be wise to bring in some decent competition - iron sharpens iron.
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Hell yes, Casserio outdrafted the Jags @ QB with nothing higher than a third round pick vs their #1 overall.
The Jacksonville QB can runner better, more mobile than our guy but otherwise I'm totally puzzled with this "generational talent" label some have put on him ?
 
TheRealJoker said:
Absolutely. He has done well for where he was drafted and its fair to assume he’ll improve in year 2 with a new OC and improved talent.

But like @steelbtexan said when he was drafted, “You should pick QB every year until its clear you have your franchise QB. “With Mills, it isn’t clear yet whether he’s a long term answer. But he has earned the right to compete for the starting QB job.
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I just wanted to add, with 1 of the 6th rd picks I would pick Bailey Zappe.
 
Texansphan said:
Yep - and for this reason, I would not be surprised if NC takes a QB with our first.
It is also for this reason I hope we move DW4 and have an extra first (or two) to play with this draft.
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My question for you is this? If Derrick beats the rap and Carolina wants to trade for him. Plus Carolina needs a LT, would you trade Derrick/Tunsil for Chinn and the Panthers entire 2022 draft, plus a 2023 1st and 2nd?

A Ricky Williams type trade.
 
IDEXAN said:
Hell yes, Casserio outdrafted the Jags @ QB with nothing higher than a third round pick vs their #1 overall.
The Jacksonville QB can runner better, more mobile than our guy but otherwise I'm totally puzzled with this "generational talent" label some have put on him ?
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He speaks very well and intelligently in interviews.
 
thunderkyss said:
If Davis Mills is going to have a better career than Trevor Lawrence, Caserio & Lovie are going to have to put together a top 5 scoring defense.

& We're going to have to find a way to run the ball.
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Fix the OL to provide a good run game/pass pro and I would love to see how Mills will improve.

I think it's funny how fans were saying the Texans need to design a WCO offense were the QB gets the ball out quickly. Then Mills gets the ball out quickly and fans are asking why he doesn't throw the ball down the field more. Which is it? Truth is they're having to use the quick passing game because the OL is just as bad in pass pro as they are in the run game.
 
Number19 said:
He speaks very well and intelligently in interviews.
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IDEXAN said:
Hell yes, Casserio outdrafted the Jags @ QB with nothing higher than a third round pick vs their #1 overall.
The Jacksonville QB can runner better, more mobile than our guy but otherwise I'm totally puzzled with this "generational talent" label some have put on him ?
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Yes he does.

More of Dabo's Clemson trash.
 
steelbtexan said:
My question for you is this? If Derrick beats the rap and Carolina wants to trade for him. Plus Carolina needs a LT, would you trade Derrick/Tunsil for Chinn and the Panthers entire 2022 draft, plus a 2023 1st and 2nd?

A Ricky Williams type trade.
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Chinn is equal to a first so in a rebuild, this deal looks pretty attractive - with a caveat - I would want a 2024 1st as well. Or toss in Christian McCaffrey.
Tunsil has gotta be worth at least a high first.
 
Texansphan said:
Chinn is equal to a first so in a rebuild, this deal looks pretty attractive - with a caveat - I would want a 2024 1st as well. Or toss in Christian McCaffrey.
Tunsil has gotta be worth at least a high first.
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Tunsil is worth Chinn, 2 pro bowl type players, even though a LT is more important than a S. IMHO

Chinn is a special player though.

This is the equivalent to four 1sts (Chinn/ two 1sts/ a 2022 2nd and a 2023 2nd.) Plus the rest of the 2022 draft for 2 pro bowl players at the most important positions on the offense.
 
steelbtexan said:
Fix the OL to provide a good run game/pass pro and I would love to see how Mills will improve.

I think it's funny how fans were saying the Texans need to design a WCO offense were the QB gets the ball out quickly. Then Mills gets the ball out quickly and fans are asking why he doesn't throw the ball down the field more. Which is it? Truth is they're having to use the quick passing game because the OL is just as bad in pass pro as they are in the run game.
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Hopefully fixing the Oline cures our run game woes as well.
I will say this though , Mills' awareness of pressure is deficient - I imagine that is something that improves with experience?
 
Texansphan said:
Hopefully fixing the Oline cures our run game woes as well.
I will say this though , Mills' awareness of pressure is deficient - I imagine that is something that improves with experience?
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I dont see this at all really.

Give me an example of this happening this game?

No fumbles and by my account he only held the ball to long 1 time. Creating a sack. This is something I really harped on as a Derrick deficiency. He caused sacks. I'm not seeing this as bad from Derrick, other than the Buffalo game. I bet even with this horrible OL play this yr the OL allows less sacks than they allowed last yr.
 
When I watch 9+ win teams the OL stands out. Until we start drafting high 1st round Ol men to protect QB and give a runner a fair chance then our QB will continue to struggle. Draft Ekwonu or Neal and then do homework on 2nd round.
 
ghostlight said:
When I watch 9+ win teams the OL stands out. Until we start drafting high 1st round Ol men to protect QB and give a runner a fair chance then our QB will continue to struggle. Draft Ekwonu or Neal and then do homework on 2nd round.
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I'm not against this line of thinking, depending on if Tunsil is here next yr. You could draft a couple of OG's in the 2nd and 3rd rds and accomplish what you're looking for. I keep mentioning my favorites Kinnard/Salyer. But there are others like like Zion Johnson/Marquis Hayes/Cade Mays/Thayer Munford that could step in right away and be upgrades. IOL is deep this yr. IMHO
 
steelbtexan said:
I dont see this at all really.

Give me an example of this happening this game?

No fumbles and by my account he only held the ball to long 1 time. Creating a sack. This is something I really harped on as a Derrick deficiency. He caused sacks. I'm not seeing this as bad from Derrick, other than the Buffalo game. I bet even with this horrible OL play this yr the OL allows less sacks than they allowed last yr.
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This line is better at pass blocking than run blocking.

These QBs (Taylor and Mills) have roughly the same sack rate as Watson (8% plus).
Watson may have caused a few sacks, but he also avoid plenty of them, and made plenty of plays in the process.
 
steelbtexan said:
Fix the OL to provide a good run game/pass pro and I would love to see how Mills will improve.

I think it's funny how fans were saying the Texans need to design a WCO offense were the QB gets the ball out quickly. Then Mills gets the ball out quickly and fans are asking why he doesn't throw the ball down the field more. Which is it? Truth is they're having to use the quick passing game because the OL is just as bad in pass pro as they are in the run game.
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The WCO isn't about getting the ball out quickly, nor does it depend on the short game.

Do you realize that Schaub even led the league in passing that one year?
And that was with how the receivers, including slow-turk Kevin Walter, had to slow down to wait for Schaub's throws.
 
steelbtexan said:
I dont see this at all really.

Give me an example of this happening this game?

No fumbles and by my account he only held the ball to long 1 time. Creating a sack. This is something I really harped on as a Derrick deficiency. He caused sacks. I'm not seeing this as bad from Derrick, other than the Buffalo game. I bet even with this horrible OL play this yr the OL allows less sacks than they allowed last yr.
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Even with the quick passing game, Texans' QBs are getting sacked at the same rate (8%) as last year. Derrick was sacked 49 times last year. This year it's 37 with 4 games to go. Looks like 8% sack rate is a feature of this offense.

Watson: 544 pass attempts, sacked 49 times and 8% sack rate
Mills: 272 pass attempts, sacked 24 times and 8.1% sack rate
Taylor: 150 pass attempts, sacked 13 times and 8% sack rate

Stats are from Pro Football Reference before today's game.
 
steelbtexan said:
Fix the OL to provide a good run game/pass pro and I would love to see how Mills will improve.

I think it's funny how fans were saying the Texans need to design a WCO offense were the QB gets the ball out quickly. Then Mills gets the ball out quickly and fans are asking why he doesn't throw the ball down the field more. Which is it? Truth is they're having to use the quick passing game because the OL is just as bad in pass pro as they are in the run game.
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To be fair. The discussion about the WCO offense was more than just getting the ball out quickly. To this day this offense is still broken and the WCO talk was about how it would resolve some of the fundamental issues with this current offense.

For example. It was having more pre-defined routes and fewer LOS adjustments for the young WRs who struggled in OB's offense. It was about improving the running game, settling on a blocking scheme, eliminating so many of the protection calls by the QB. Many of the pros of the WCO appeared to be a solution for the current offensive woes. That was the point of the WCO discussions.
 
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Earl34 said:
Even with the quick passing game, Texans' QBs are getting sacked at the same rate (8%) as last year. Derrick was sacked 49 times last year. This year it's 37 with 4 games to go. Looks like 8% sack rate is a feature of this offense.

Watson: 544 pass attempts, sacked 49 times and 8% sack rate
Mills: 272 pass attempts, sacked 24 times and 8.1% sack rate
Taylor: 150 pass attempts, sacked 13 times and 8% sack rate

Stats are from Pro Football Reference before today's game.
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I'm looking at this rate dropping as the level of defensive competition drops.

Thanks for those stats.
 
Earl34 said:
To be fair. The discussion about the WCO offense was more than just getting the ball out quickly. To this day this offense is still broken and the WCO talk was about how it would resolve some of the fundamental issues with this current offense.

For example. It was having more pre-defined routes and fewer LOS adjustments for the young WRs who struggled in OB's offense. It was about improving the running game, settling on a blocking scheme, eliminating so many of the protection calls by the QB. Many of the pros of the WCO appeared to be a solution for the current offensive woes. Taht was the point.
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I understand what you're point is and I hope you understand my point.

Also I want a QB that's capable of calling out protections correctly.
 
Earl34 said:
I still think some of the protection issues are scheme related. Even this year, they have struggled on 3rd down blitzes and DBs off the edge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1472750737113370632
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I also think adding a couple of inexpensive FA skill position players would really help the offense out. My plan

Fix the OL in the draft. Rd. 2 Kinnard Rd. 3 Salyer Rd. 4 Kennedy Brooks

Add cheap FA's WR James Washington and unfortunately they still dont have a reliable TE (Brown and his 7 holding penalties) O.J. Howard.

The offense would look a whole lot better with an investment like this and then we could truly get an idea of how Mills develops in 2022.
 
steelbtexan said:
I also think adding a couple of inexpensive FA skill position players would really help the offense out. My plan

Fix the OL in the draft. Rd. 2 Kinnard Rd. 3 Salyer Rd. 4 Kennedy Brooks

Add cheap FA's WR James Washington and unfortunately they still dont have a reliable TE (Brown and his 7 holding penalties) O.J. Howard.

The offense would look a whole lot better with an investment like this and then we could truly get an idea of how Mills develops in 2022.
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Davion Davis played in the Spring League. There should be a few other decent WRs that would be pulled from there.
 
steelbtexan said:
I dont see this at all really.

Give me an example of this happening this game?

No fumbles and by my account he only held the ball to long 1 time. Creating a sack. This is something I really harped on as a Derrick deficiency. He caused sacks. I'm not seeing this as bad from Derrick, other than the Buffalo game. I bet even with this horrible OL play this yr the OL allows less sacks than they allowed last yr.
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I noticed it a few times this season, but as you infer, he may be improved there too.
Getting rid of the ball quicker will also decrease the possibility of a blindside sack/pressure.
 
steelbtexan said:
I also think adding a couple of inexpensive FA skill position players would really help the offense out. My plan

Fix the OL in the draft. Rd. 2 Kinnard Rd. 3 Salyer Rd. 4 Kennedy Brooks

Add cheap FA's WR James Washington and unfortunately they still dont have a reliable TE (Brown and his 7 holding penalties) O.J. Howard.

The offense would look a whole lot better with an investment like this and then we could truly get an idea of how Mills develops in 2022.
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Washington and Howard should be cheap and are talented players. Good idea and the types of signings I want to see in free agency to build around what is hopefully a ton of premium draft picks to be the core roster.

I have been a fan of Howard in particular since he was drafted. I just worry the injury last season may have taken away the athleticism that made him a high 1st round pick.
 
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