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Selection 4.135: Tom Savage QB
- Thread starter pappy
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The1ApplePie
Hall of Fame
Solid potential. Seems to be a Favre/Romo style QB, which the franchise has never had.
If he sucks, it was just a 4th round pick, no harm in punting on it.
If he sucks, it was just a 4th round pick, no harm in punting on it.
badboy
Hall of Fame
610 radio reported today that O'Brien said they will work with Savage to develop "what we call silent alarm" so he understands when to get rid of the ball.
With spidey sense I meant he notices it when a defender is very close to tackling him and he spins out of harms way. The silent alarm is, at least in my opinion, an internal clock that tells you: it`s about time to throw or a defender will get too close to you.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Been watching Savage cut-ups.
He definitely has a arm far superior to anyone that we have had in Houston since Carr left.
All his throws look effortless.
He seems to be able to manage and offense and make adjustments.
Does ok working through progressions and placing the ball in good spots.
May tend to throw a bit high at times, which might work well with Hopkins.
Calm under pressure.
More mobile than you think, an upgrade of Schuab for sure.
I'm quietly optimistic.
I am looking forward to some bombs being thrown this year.
He definitely has a arm far superior to anyone that we have had in Houston since Carr left.
All his throws look effortless.
He seems to be able to manage and offense and make adjustments.
Does ok working through progressions and placing the ball in good spots.
May tend to throw a bit high at times, which might work well with Hopkins.
Calm under pressure.
More mobile than you think, an upgrade of Schuab for sure.
I'm quietly optimistic.
I am looking forward to some bombs being thrown this year.
Meltzer did a video breakdown. Not the greatest breakdown, but something to talk about.
I haven't watched a video yet, but the bolded really jumped out at me. Is that really something to be impressed by? Those should be pretty much a given for a drafted QB.
That last clip clearly showed what a quick release he has, a pretty dang good arm and very good accuracy on the deep ball. He had a clean pocket but also just a 4 man rush.
All in all, I'm good with the Texans draft. I'm glad they didn't reach on a QB out of desperation. This looks like a BPA draft for the most part. Maybe a reach with Fido, but other than that, I don't see one.
How Savage develops will go a long way as far as BO'Bs QB "guru" status goes. Can he take a kid with all the physical tools and teach him how to read a defense quickly and correctly? I have no real idea if that can be taught.
I heard him saying something similar on the radio, "under duress" was part of the on air comment. He was impressed with Savage's accuracy while getting hit. The first video (I think) illustrates as much, so I have to imagine that's what he meant to say there.
His youtube highlight reels are inconclusive to THIS QB expert. I can't decide if he make good throws into tight windows or got lucky with a bad decision. I really don't trust his ability to read a defense ( my biggest worry).
I don't think any college kid comes out of the NFL knowing how to read NFL defenses as well as we like to think.
"Bridgewater can read defenses like a mutha..." well, those weren't "NFL" defenses. Just like there are college offenses & pro offenses, most college deffenses aren't "pro style" and most college defenses don't have near the talent an NFL defense has, so windows don't close as fast, you don't have to throw as high to get over the second level, & so one & so forth.
Alabama with Nick Saban runs a "pro defense" but Johnny Football tore that sht up.... not because he could read them, but because he could break it down.
Even Peyton Manning and Tom Brady had to learn to read NFL defenses.
That said... I think OB has a good way of teaching how to read defenses as it relates to his system & New England has a system that is QB friendly.
I also realize I am way to "excited" about this QB.
fify
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I think TK has this dead-on. No college QB really comes into the NFL knowing how to correctly read an NFL defense. They all have to learn it; some are just at a worse starting point and lack some things.
Now. Think about this.
Savage spent 1000 days NOT playing football. He went to a new school ( a couple) and was given a playbook. He learned the playbook on his own and came into practice and won the starting job. The WORST film we have on him is his first game after that break. But my point is that he taught himself that offense.
One of the things OB likes about him is that he thinks Savage is smart and "teachable." And a lot of why OB thinks that may have come from the private workouts. I've heard several guys say that both Accuracy and Reads are tied to the footwork and if you can clean up a guy's footwork and teach them how to go through their progressions and get their feet set, a lot of things smooth out.
For me, Savage's biggest problem is staring down his receivers but again, that's something that could be fixed by just teaching him how to properly go through his progressions. If he can get that... and it's a big if... he's got the physical tools to be really good.
I still can't help but get excited about this kid. It was mentioned earlier, that Boyd was thought of as a late 1st rounder this time last year. Now, a year later he goes at the top of the sixth.
I imagine if Savage had another year to play, he would be thought have a first round grade. I think we got real lucky on this one & we have O'Brien's college experience to thank for it. Kind funny really. I thought Bortles' rating shot through the roof because of his associations with OB... he played him in 2013, he was coached by a mentor of O'Briens. who'd have thunk there was another one out there OB had his eyes on?
But still got better as the year progressed.
Just imagine we might see our QB tucking & running to keep the chains moving in the future.
As long as he doesn't have to face a defense like that of Fla. St., he'll be fine.
dalemurphy
Hall of Fame
The Florida state game is the reason for hope. Watch that game then watch him play later in the season. He improved a great deal after shaking off the rust. Nobody believes he is ready to start now, but there is reason to believe he will continue to mature as a QB.
You know, I really missed you leading up to the draft. We were bickering back & forth about Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel, & McCarron.... okay, I was the only one talking about McCarron.
I thought you did a good job analyzing the QBs in the 2012 draft & I wanted to hear your take on this crop.
But now, seems like you don't like anyone who threatens Keenum, so I guess I can fill in the blanks. But I will say this.
I don't hate Keenum. Regardless where he plays, I'll be rooting for him to succeed just like I root for Vince, Kolb, McGee, Tanehill, Griffin, Dustin Vaughn & several other signal callers that originated in the great state of Texas. But even more so for Case since he wears Battle Red, Liberty White, & Cold Steel Blue on game day.
I'd like nothing more than for Case to lead this team to it's first Super Bowl, and several Lombardies. But I'm not going to hold my breath. But he's a grown man & a professional athlete & his future on this team has a whole lot more to do with what he does than what I say on an internet message board. So whether he's my favorite going forward, or at the bottom of my list it makes no difference.
If OB is the man we need him to be, there will be an open competition for the starting QB spot this summer & if Case is the man you think he is, he'll win the job. To tell you the truth, I think the fix is in & McNair ensured Case has the inside track to that starting job.
But if I'm wrong..... I'm wrong. I can see the good in all the QBs on our roster. I just hope OB can maximize their potential, put the best one on the field, & get this club to the Super Bowl.
I do like the potential of Savage and Bortles.
I'm good with JFF at 2.1
Savage in the fourth is great, but to me, he needs some work.
I like next year crop better.
I've watched some of them, like our draftnik do.
In fact, I've been re-watch them the last few days.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Jaguars may finally got their franchise QB but they over paid in the process doing it while Texans acquired Savage for fair value. Something to be said for each franchise, however Clowney is far more immediate impact & it's not out of the question Savage could develop as fast, even faster, into a franchise QB.
Thorn
Dirty Old Man
I want to see the Texans in a Super Bowl victory parade in downtown Houston. Who we celebrate as our winning quarterback makes no difference to me whatsoever. I would go crazy happy if it was Keenum, but even if it's Putin draped in a Soviet flag I still cheer for the winning QB no matter who he is.
Savage is like every other QB in this years draft, not a damn one of them was worth the 1.1 pick, and who you pick is a matter of fitting into the coaches system. Besides, Savage has a cool name and is big and tall and strong. For now, that's good enough for me. We all know Fitzybeard will be starting game one anyway. Who's left standing at starting QB by game 16 this year is anyone's guess.
Savage is like every other QB in this years draft, not a damn one of them was worth the 1.1 pick, and who you pick is a matter of fitting into the coaches system. Besides, Savage has a cool name and is big and tall and strong. For now, that's good enough for me. We all know Fitzybeard will be starting game one anyway. Who's left standing at starting QB by game 16 this year is anyone's guess.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Wait, didn't you at one point say you would take AJ McCarron with the first pick in the draft? Where did he go again? And I'm now supposed to believe in your ability to assess the fate of Savage and Keenum?
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
I like next year crop better.
I've watched some of them, like our draftnik do.
In fact, I've been re-watch them the last few days.
Give me some sleepy guys to look out for, 76T.
Connor Cook? Dax Prescott?
mattieuk
All Pro
That is what I'm excited about with Savage. He was obviously punished for his lack of football at college in his draft positioning. There are seldom few QBs out of college who are really ready for the NFL on day one, regardless of what round they are picked in. I see this specific draft pick as similar to the Lattimore pickup last year by the 49ers - where there is a great deal of unknown (obviously differences coming off of injury vs. a low amount of college gametime/continuity) - but you can tuck them away for a year with little pressure on the player, and see if you can end up with talent in year 2 that would be worthy of a 1st/2nd rounder.
I'm really looking forward to the 2015 preseason to see exactly what we have with Savage once he's had a season of NFL coaching under OB.
He reminds me of Roethlisberger in some ways - one of which is in what I've seen in his running style. He obviously isn't going to be a guy who they're going to call plays to outsprint someone, but he has that same kind of awkward but effective mobility for a bigger framed guy that can make the first guy miss and pickup a few yards in short yardage situations especially.
That said, obviously any QB who can post a positive gain is going to look like Adrian Peterson to us after watching Schaub play for the last few years.
You're ahead of me there, PO.
I'm still busy making notes of the top ones to see what I like for them to improve on.
Those two names are good ones to watch.
Besides the more familiar names like winston, Mariota, and Hundley, I'm interested in the development of Gardner and Miller.
I think Miller is making good strides.
Then there's a bunch of guys that I want to review.
Is Petty a considerarion?
What about Driskel?
And quite a few others in the so - so class.
What's been happening to the rest of the top of the recruiting classes of 2010-2012?
Some lesser known names that caught my eyes, maybe just for a fleeting moment like Cato,
Fajardo, Kelly.
Will Nick Montana amount to any good?
Then there's a bunch of guys a year further away, but you never know when the lights might come.
Then I want to count on other draftniks (like our 3 amigos) to give me a lead on prospects from smaller schools; I've become dependent on them for that.
Sigma
Veteran
What I want to remind people is that Savage is not ready; I don't even think I need to add "IMO" or "IMHO".
To dalemurphy, for example, he ought to know that I take into consideration the chronological order of development of players, and also the caliber of the competition.
What kind of O-line he has (or any QB for that matter - see Bryce Petty or McCarron.)
I still remember Caldwell when we drafted him.
Many, as in "MANY" , people thought I was either "Crazy" or a relative of Myers.
I even spent the time to check out every Lineman that Caldwell faced in his last two years in college.
I also reported on the lack of caliber of receiver Kareem Jackson faced.
When I compared Keenum, I only pull out games of common opponents that he faced as other QBs that were drafted.
I even took notes of injuries that might change the make- up of the teams.
Not that I can be thorough, but I do like to compare oranges to oranges, if possible.
But I also realize that my info is far from complete, no matter how hard I try.
You guys ought to know by now that my nature is never to shot down nobody.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Yep, NOT ready. ~750 college attempts and some lost time in there.
Bortles ~900
Bridgewater ~1150
Aaron Murray ~1500
Needs to redshirt.
The meat of Pitt ' schedule:
10 points scored against Ga. TECH. (Loss)
28 points scored against a heavily depleted Iris squad (watch the game; you would hear about it.) (WIN)
A 27-pt scored against UNC.
Watch this game; it's most telling.
This kind of games and the Fla. St. Game are the kind of games I watch the QB play.
The heavier the pass rush, the better for my evaluation.
10 points scored against Ga. TECH. (Loss)
28 points scored against a heavily depleted Iris squad (watch the game; you would hear about it.) (WIN)
A 27-pt scored against UNC.
Watch this game; it's most telling.
This kind of games and the Fla. St. Game are the kind of games I watch the QB play.
The heavier the pass rush, the better for my evaluation.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
I think it is clear to everyone that Savage is not ready. QBs drafted at the end of the 4th round are basically never ready. Especially if it is a QB that went almost 1000 days without playing football in between. Savage is a project - and I believe that is exactly what OB wanted.
Savage is tall, has a strong arm and throws a beautiful accurate ball. He can also move pretty good in the pocket. Those are things OB can work with. He can`t dissect defenses yet, he isn`t fast enough going through his reads and he holds on to the football a little too long. It would probably be best for him to sit for a year, hold the playbook, breath in everything around him and get better.
The thing that makes me and others feel good about this pick: the only reason he wasn`t a first round pick is, he is not ready because he missed so much football and never had time to learn a system. He is a gamble, a high risk high reward kinda guy. But we only gave up a 4th for him. If he works out, that`d be amazing. If he doesn`t, well let`s go for it again in a year or two.
Honoring Earl 34
Something Witty !
Looking for a franchise QB is like playing the lottery . The 1st round gives you more tickets and increases your odds but there are no guarantees you'll hit . Like the lottery , all it takes is one lucky pick or one ticket . 
BigBull
Rookie
Looking for a franchise QB is like playing the lottery . The 1st round gives you more tickets and increases your odds but there are no guarantees you'll hit . Like the lottery , all it takes is one lucky pick or one ticket .
I couldn't agree more. I just hope Savage is that franchise QB the Texans have been looking for.
Sent from the future...
badboy
Hall of Fame
Biggest concern I have on Savage is actually twofold. First I am concerned, he will be forced to start due to injury or failure of Fitz and Keenum. Second, he took a beating in high school & college and I'm concerned he does not psych out ala Schaub. The time off between college seasons had to help + he just looked mentally strong last year.
Another QB I will focus on again is Oregon's Sean Mannion. Despite going to a more balanced attack, he doubled his attempts, completions and yards while maintaining his avg. His accuracy improved only to 66% and really needs to improve on that. TDs 37 to 15 INTs needs to be better also. Arm strength turned me off last year & he was smart to accept the 3rd round eval he received & return to school despite having his degree.
Another QB I will focus on again is Oregon's Sean Mannion. Despite going to a more balanced attack, he doubled his attempts, completions and yards while maintaining his avg. His accuracy improved only to 66% and really needs to improve on that. TDs 37 to 15 INTs needs to be better also. Arm strength turned me off last year & he was smart to accept the 3rd round eval he received & return to school despite having his degree.
I originally thought the same thing.
Then I got to thinking, if you factor in what they've done this offseason... I mean, really... they may not be half bad this year.
I mean they could probably be pretty good this year.
I said that knowing full well he would most likely go as late as he was being projected. The book isn't closed on Aj McCarron. Get back with me in three years.
& you don't have to believe in my ability to assess anything, that was not at all what that post was about.
My opinion is slanted heavily towards anyone in a Texans Uniform. I can btch & moan about the worst that can happen, but I don't find any enjoyment in that. I'd rather stick my head in the sand, cross my fingers, & hope for the best.
It sucks when you end up 2-14, but it pays off when you're chearing your ass off in the stadium for a home play off game... which I've been lucky enough to experience twice in the last three years & hope to do at the end of the 2014 season.
Nope, not by a long shot.
Watched the FSU, NC, ND, and UofM games. I saw little to like.
Maybe O'Brien can make a silk purse out of this sow's ear.
We'll see.
Pennsylvania is the breeding ground for great QB's (Namath/Montana/Marino/Kelly etc...) lets hope Savage can join this group.
The only way I see him starting is if the season is already lost. In the AFC, that means that 8-8 is no longer mathematically possible. Then it's up to OB to protect him.
Football players learn by playing football. His biggest problem is that he hasn't played a lot of football in the last three years. Can't fix that on the bench.
Edit: on the protection front. I believe (hope, fingers crossed) we're going to see a focus on protecting the QB. Teaching the OL to do their job better than the defense is doing their job. Which has not been a focus in Houston, ever. Schaub was taught to get rid of the ball on time, in rhythm. All QBs need to learn that, but all offensive lines need to learn how to defend a pocket.
yes, let's hope....
what is Corrosion tag line...
Oh yeah, "Hope is a poor man's disease."
call me poor, cause I'm hoping too.
PHILLYTEXANFAN
Saddle Up Partner
Schaub came from here as well
BullNation4Life
All Pro
Pennsylvania would like to forget that....kinda like aliens, ghosts or Star Wars movies 1, 2 & 3
They don't exist....it never happened...
beerlover
Hall of Fame
disclaimer: tired as hell
just watched Pitt vs ND tape from last year & have to say Tom reminds me a little of Joe Montana. Early developmental years. Better velocity than he appears, pure pocket passer but has presence in the pocket flashing ability to move & extend plays. Joe was something like 6-2 205 coming out of College while Tom is listed 6-4 228 (does not look it). Joe was taken in 3rd Tom in 4th. OB is a huge plus for putting him on a fast track. Too early but does posses makings of a franchise QB.
just watched Pitt vs ND tape from last year & have to say Tom reminds me a little of Joe Montana. Early developmental years. Better velocity than he appears, pure pocket passer but has presence in the pocket flashing ability to move & extend plays. Joe was something like 6-2 205 coming out of College while Tom is listed 6-4 228 (does not look it). Joe was taken in 3rd Tom in 4th. OB is a huge plus for putting him on a fast track. Too early but does posses makings of a franchise QB.
I found this blog, which provides a "mathematical" argument as to why Tom Savage won't be any good.
Fairly logical argument.... right?
So I was wondering if you took those stats from all the QBs drafted in the first round, how would they compare? I'm too lazy to compile the stats myself, but I was hoping one of you stat junkies wouldn't mind lending a hand. I did get a list of all the 1st rounders though....
2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Bollar, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman (Shaub was taken in the 3rd round of this draft, Luke McCown in the 4th)
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (Matt Cassell & Ryan Fitzpatrick were taken in the 7th round of this draft)
2006: Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler
2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: Ej Manuel
Lot of 1st round QBs taken since 2001. That's going to be a whole lot of work. Thank you in advance.
Fairly logical argument.... right?
So I was wondering if you took those stats from all the QBs drafted in the first round, how would they compare? I'm too lazy to compile the stats myself, but I was hoping one of you stat junkies wouldn't mind lending a hand. I did get a list of all the 1st rounders though....
2001: Michael Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Bollar, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman (Shaub was taken in the 3rd round of this draft, Luke McCown in the 4th)
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell (Matt Cassell & Ryan Fitzpatrick were taken in the 7th round of this draft)
2006: Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler
2007: Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quin
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2011: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbart, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
2012: Andrew Luck, RG3, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2013: Ej Manuel
Lot of 1st round QBs taken since 2001. That's going to be a whole lot of work. Thank you in advance.
aussie_texan
Veteran
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I've just started. I forgot to get the years vs. starts vs. games played info. smh.
But basically, an average 1st round QB gives you:
* A 51% win percentage
* A 59.7% completion percentage
* 13500 yards
* 81 TDs
* 57 INTs
That's basically Josh Freeman's career so far with a slightly better completion percentage.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
So a first rounder, on average, would give you 2 additional wins??
Well, no.
51% of a 16 game season is 8.16 wins. 6.78 is damned close to 7 and when you don't round the numbers, you end up with a massive 1.38 win difference.
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