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Really Early 2024 Mock Draft…..

IIRC a poster asked @CloakNNNdagger if Tytus Howard injury was same as former Texans Derek Newton and was given an affirmative answer.
Newton went out in 2026 and tried to return but was unsuccessful.
Although as I've posted in the past, patellar tendon ruptures result in return to play in only ~50% of cases, Newton had a much lesser chance of ever returning, since he suffered a freak BILATERAL patellar tendon rupture. He suffered the rupture in 2016 (not 2026 :)) and tried to play in a 12/30/18 game with little success. He retired shortly thereafter.
 
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Although as I've posted in the past, patellar tendon ruptures result in return to play in only ~50% of cases, Newton had a much lesser chance of ever returning, since he suffered a freak BILATERAL patellar tendon rupture. He suffered the rupture in 2016 (not 2026 :)) and tried to play in a 12/30/18 game with little success. He retired shortly thereafter.
Could you guesstimate based on your medical experience the odds of Titus Howard being effective 2024 at right tackle? This decision could be the most significant for the 2023 off season.
 
Could you guesstimate based on your medical experience the odds of Titus Howard being effective 2024 at right tackle? This decision could be the most significant for the 2023 off season.
Badboy, I've posted on this question previously in the Injury Discussion thread..............and you responded to it.

An older NFL study showed that players suffering a patellar tendon rupture returned to play in 50% of cases. Those that returned, had significant problems with knee pain and stiffness. A newer study of men and women athletes showed a better return rate, BUT..............only when their BMI was less than 25............and then those that were able to return would return to what would be their best return performance (less than pre-injury) no sooner than ~18 months post repair.

Howard at 6'5" and 320 lbs comes in at a BMI at 37+. Furthermore, there is evidence that Howard's patellar tendon was shredding prior to ultimate rupture.......thus a factor worsening the final prognosis.
 
Badboy, I've posted on this question previously in the Injury Discussion thread..............and you responded to it.
Sorry, no. You posted about what generally happens in ~50% of patellar injuries and gave evidence when I asked about earlier knee tear.
That is the evidence I was looking for as I had read that a small tear had occurred before he was injured and went out in his last game but I could not find it again. Doc, did you see anything with Howard performance earlier this season? It seemed to me like he just wasn't comfortable in his stance whether it was in run or pass blocking.
I noticed, as a contrast to previous pattern, that for a while, he was not taking a low crouch nor was he strongly pushing off the line.......usually something that reflects a knee problem.
I am asking your medical view if he will play to NFL quality in 2024.

I understand if as a doctor you don't feel comfortable giving opinion. You have been attacked in past and I get that.
 
Sorry, no. You posted about what generally happens in ~50% of patellar injuries and gave evidence when I asked about earlier knee tear.


I am asking your medical view if he will play to NFL quality in 2024.

I understand if as a doctor you don't feel comfortable giving opinion. You have been attacked in past and I get that.

From y'all's back and forth, from what I can tell its 50/50 whether he returns to play at his previous level and his previous level was avg at best to begin with. I wouldn't count on Howard next year if you're looking for an upgrade at RT. They're stuck with Howard and his 18 mil for the next 2 seasons. A terrible signing by Caserio.
 
From y'all's back and forth, from what I can tell its 50/50 whether he returns to play at his previous level and his previous level was avg at best to begin with. I wouldn't count on Howard next year if you're looking for an upgrade at RT. They're stuck with Howard and his 18 mil for the next 2 seasons. A terrible signing by Caserio.
Yeah I think he's out but will try a comeback by 2025. A sort of good news : only his base of 2024 $14 million is guaranteed as he is already received his signing bonus and the 2023 base is almost. I do not think the 14 can be negotiated down due to a medical as it's 100 % GTD. If he is not going to be able to play, Houston needs to address that ASAP.
 
The Athletic put out a consensus top 50 prospects for the 2024 draft, last week. The were 8 OTs listed, though some may move to the interior in the NFL. I think a RT for now or the future will be obtainable. And as I've said before, OL is one of the safest positions to take in the 1st round.

1Marvin Harrison Jr.49.5WR21
2Caleb Williams49.4QB1-1
3Drake Maye47.2QB30
4Brock Bowers45.4TE51
5Joe Alt44.7OT61
6Olu Fashanu44.5OT4-2
7Dallas Turner41.2EDGE70
8Kool-Aid McKinstry37.1CB80
9Laiatu Latu36.5EDGE3324
10JC Latham34.9OT111
11Malik Nabers34.7WR198
12Rome Odunze31.3WR2513
13Jer'Zhan Newton30.6DT185
14Emeka Egbuka28.4WR10-4
15Jayden Daniels28.4QB2813
16Chop Robinson26.7EDGENRNR
17Keon Coleman26.2WRNRNR
18Nate Wiggins25.5CBNRNR
19Taliese Fuaga24.3IOLNRNR
20Amarius Mims24.0OTNRNR
21Cooper DeJean23.2CB265
22JT Tuimoloau23.2EDGE9-13
23Denzel Burke19.0CB16-7
24Bralen Trice18.4EDGE22-2
25Xavier Worthy17.7WR15-10
26Michael Penix Jr.17.5QB315
27Bo Nix16.2QB4013
28Kalen King16.0CB14-14
29Kamren Kinchens15.8S3910
30Terrion Arnold15.4CBNRNR
31Tyler Nubin15.1SNRNR
32Kingsley Suamataia14.3OT23-9
33Shedeur Sanders14.2QBNRNR
34J.J. McCarthy13.3QB4915
35Graham Barton12.3OT/GNRNR
36Jeremiah Trotter Jr.11.2LB13-23
37Adonai Mitchell11.1WRNRNR
38Javon Bullard10.9S21-17
39Kamari Lassiter10.5CB445
40Calen Bullock10.3S36-4
41Troy Franklin10.2WR432
42Troy Fautanu9.8G/CNRNR
43Xavier Legette9.7WRNRNR
44Michael Hall Jr.9.7DT20-24
45Leonard Taylor III9.5DL38-7
46Andrew Mukuba9.5S30-16
47Quinyon Mitchell9.2CBNRNR
48Ja'Tavion Sanders9.0TE24-24
49Jordan Morgan8.0OTNRNR
50Jack Sawyer7.7EDGE35-15
 
Yeah I think he's out but will try a comeback by 2025. A sort of good news : only his base of 2024 $14 million is guaranteed as he is already received his signing bonus and the 2023 base is almost. I do not think the 14 can be negotiated down due to a medical as it's 100 % GTD. If he is not going to be able to play, Houston needs to address that ASAP.
I think he's going to try to play. But I dont expect things to go well. The worst of both worlds. An overpaid player trying to play through injury at a poor level of performance.
 
The Athletic put out a consensus top 50 prospects for the 2024 draft, last week. The were 8 OTs listed, though some may move to the interior in the NFL. I think a RT for now or the future will be obtainable. And as I've said before, OL is one of the safest positions to take in the 1st round.

1Marvin Harrison Jr.49.5WR21
2Caleb Williams49.4QB1-1
3Drake Maye47.2QB30
4Brock Bowers45.4TE51
5Joe Alt44.7OT61
6Olu Fashanu44.5OT4-2
7Dallas Turner41.2EDGE70
8Kool-Aid McKinstry37.1CB80
9Laiatu Latu36.5EDGE3324
10JC Latham34.9OT111
11Malik Nabers34.7WR198
12Rome Odunze31.3WR2513
13Jer'Zhan Newton30.6DT185
14Emeka Egbuka28.4WR10-4
15Jayden Daniels28.4QB2813
16Chop Robinson26.7EDGENRNR
17Keon Coleman26.2WRNRNR
18Nate Wiggins25.5CBNRNR
19Taliese Fuaga24.3IOLNRNR
20Amarius Mims24.0OTNRNR
21Cooper DeJean23.2CB265
22JT Tuimoloau23.2EDGE9-13
23Denzel Burke19.0CB16-7
24Bralen Trice18.4EDGE22-2
25Xavier Worthy17.7WR15-10
26Michael Penix Jr.17.5QB315
27Bo Nix16.2QB4013
28Kalen King16.0CB14-14
29Kamren Kinchens15.8S3910
30Terrion Arnold15.4CBNRNR
31Tyler Nubin15.1SNRNR
32Kingsley Suamataia14.3OT23-9
33Shedeur Sanders14.2QBNRNR
34J.J. McCarthy13.3QB4915
35Graham Barton12.3OT/GNRNR
36Jeremiah Trotter Jr.11.2LB13-23
37Adonai Mitchell11.1WRNRNR
38Javon Bullard10.9S21-17
39Kamari Lassiter10.5CB445
40Calen Bullock10.3S36-4
41Troy Franklin10.2WR432
42Troy Fautanu9.8G/CNRNR
43Xavier Legette9.7WRNRNR
44Michael Hall Jr.9.7DT20-24
45Leonard Taylor III9.5DL38-7
46Andrew Mukuba9.5S30-16
47Quinyon Mitchell9.2CBNRNR
48Ja'Tavion Sanders9.0TE24-24
49Jordan Morgan8.0OTNRNR
50Jack Sawyer7.7EDGE35-15

They could just bring back Jones/Heck and another cheap FA like Fant. Then draft a guy like Christian Jones in the 4th or 5th rd.
 
They could just bring back Jones/Heck and another cheap FA like Fant. Then draft a guy like Christian Jones in the 4th or 5th rd.
I think that Nick casario is already looking at options in free agency just in case. I am only interested in one offensive tackle on that list and I think we could get him in round two and that is Jordan Morgan. I really like that guy but he may be a left tackle only.
 
I think that Nick casario is already looking at options in free agency just in case. I am only interested in one offensive tackle on that list and I think we could get him in round two and that is Jordan Morgan. I really like that guy but he may be a left tackle only.
I dont like him this high as a RT. He's an avg run blocker.
 
I dont like him this high as a RT. He's an avg run blocker.
Good info but what do you base opinion on? 80% run blocking and does well in review. "Can get beat by bigger opponents " but that is routine comments about almost all.
 
Good info but what do you base opinion on? 80% run blocking and does well in review. "Can get beat by bigger opponents " but that is routine comments about almost all.

I've watched him and he's not the type of run blocker I'm looking for.
 
A current Mock Draft based on the end of the regular CFB season:

025. DT- T’Vondre Sweat (Texas)

050. TE- Ja’Tavion Sanders (Texas)

092. FS- Cole Bishop (Utah)

114. CB- TJ Tampa (Iowa State)

121. LB- Payton Wilson (North Carolina State) “MLB”

195. RB- Jaylon Wright (Tennessee)

205. TE- Thomas Yassmin (Utah)

209. OT- Rueben Fatheree II (Texas A&M)


As for the Texans current UFA Class….I’m good with trying to get 14 of the 24 re-signed

10 Players Not Re-signed:

DT- Teair Tart
FS- Eric Murray
RT- George Fant
LB- Denzel Perryman
OL- Scott Quessenberry
RB- Dare Ogunbowale
OT- Josh Jones
LB- Neville Hewitt
OG- DJ Scaife
OC- Keaton Sutherland

I would try to trade:

WR- Robert Woods
RB- Dameon Pierce

My biggest UFA target in off-season:

WR- Mike Evans (TB)

With Evans the receivers would look like this:

WR1- Evans
WR2- Collins
WR3- Dell
WR4- Brown
WR- Metchie
WR- Hutchinson

Strike Rueben Fatheree II….he’s returning to the Aggies for the 2024 season.
 
I can't get the simulator to copy and paste for me but this is one I did earlier.

28. Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
50. T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
91. Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma
114. Blake Corum RB Michigan
124. Jaden Hicks S Washington State
196. Tanor Bortolini OC Wisconsin
207. Jack Sawyer EDGE Ohio State
209. Bryson Nesbit TE North Carolina
 
can't get the simulator to copy and paste for me but this is one I did earlier.
You have to download & save, then open
Here is one I did for shiggles
1704501332927.png
I like that one quite a bit, just wish a CB would have fallen to rnd 3 or 4
 
Doesn't work for me. It pastes as file:///storage/emulated/0/Download/PFN_MDS_Result__1704502584792.png
Using windows? I get a preview up top that has the PFN... and then I right click that and tell it to open. Go to the location you saved it and then open it
 
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None of the top 5 WR's fell in this mock draft. I added some scouting reports to the players. Any thoughts?

23. Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State
He's incredibly fast and explosive off the edge, he's a dynamic rusher who can use his quickness to get to the QB. Would be great to have him on the opposite side of WA.

59. T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
A mammoth at 6'4" and 346 pounds, T'Vondre Sweat is a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the defense. He makes everything possible for his teammates. Would be great for our run defense and would give us a Vince Wilfork type DT.

86. Devontez Walker WR North Carolina
His speed, explosiveness, and high-level catching instincts on the vertical plane, to go along with excellent size at 6’2 1/2″ and 200 pounds. Once clocked at over 23 miles per hour in a game by Recruiting Analytics, there’s no disputing Walker’s long speed. When he has a runway, he can effortlessly stack defenders on the boundary and gain space. He would give us another speed threat to go with Dell and Nico

119. Jaylen Wright RB Tennessee
An efficient runner and a dynamic big-play threat with a max speed of 23 MPH, Wright has a skill set that makes him one of the most tantalizing RB prospects in the draft. Quantifiably elite speed and explosiveness threat with home-run ability in open space

123. Christian Mahogany OG Boston College
An agile mover who puts his length to good use, using his hands aggressively and landing solid initial punches. Mahogany can move to the second level as a run blocker, with the coordination and balance to hit moving targets. In pass protection, he’s a fire hydrant who plays with a wide base and plenty of core strength. Bursts off the line of scrimmage and has tremendous natural strength and power, able to dominate at the point of attack and wipe out defenders in the run game.

196. Luke Reimer LB Nebraska
Reimer shows good speed and closing burst when blitzing. He’s built like a defensive back but hits like a linebacker. Has sideline-to-sideline range and is a violent, wrap-up hitter. Makes the clean open-field tackle. Good effort in pursuit. Has enough twitch and speed to make an impact coming off the edge. He’s very good in coverage when looking into the backfield in zone coverage. He’s effective in pursuit when chasing down backs as a run defender, and Reimer has the athleticism to cover a lot of ground when dropping into coverage.

210. Evan Williams S Oregon
Williams has a tall, lean build with some muscle and moves incredibly well. He can flip his hips to change direction and cover receivers downfield stride-for-stride.Also efficient at playing the run, using his long, athletic frame to cover ground and make tackles against ball carriers. He is also a good coverage safety, allowing just one touchdown in 464 coverage snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.

219. Isaiah Davis RB South Dakota State
Fairly explosive runner with good acceleration, generating easy second-level momentum. Able to use one-cut agility and snappy footwork to redirect attack angles and find space with short-area energy can stack quick cuts and snake through crowds. Quick feet and strides allow him to glide into open lanes with decisiveness on zone runs.
 
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None of the top 5 WR's fell in this mock draft. I added some scouting reports to the players. Any thoughts?

23. Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State
He's incredibly fast and explosive off the edge, he's a dynamic rusher who can use his quickness to get to the QB. Would be great to have him on the opposite side of WA.

59. T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
A mammoth at 6'4" and 346 pounds, T'Vondre Sweat is a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the defense. He makes everything possible for his teammates. Would be great for our run defense and would give us a Vince Wilfork type DT.

86. Devontez Walker WR North Carolina
His speed, explosiveness, and high-level catching instincts on the vertical plane, to go along with excellent size at 6’2 1/2″ and 200 pounds. Once clocked at over 23 miles per hour in a game by Recruiting Analytics, there’s no disputing Walker’s long speed. When he has a runway, he can effortlessly stack defenders on the boundary and gain space. He would give us another speed threat to go with Dell and Nico

119. Jaylen Wright RB Tennessee
An efficient runner and a dynamic big-play threat with a max speed of 23 MPH, Wright has a skill set that makes him one of the most tantalizing RB prospects in the draft. Quantifiably elite speed and explosiveness threat with home-run ability in open space

123. Christian Mahogany OG Boston College
An agile mover who puts his length to good use, using his hands aggressively and landing solid initial punches. Mahogany can move to the second level as a run blocker, with the coordination and balance to hit moving targets. In pass protection, he’s a fire hydrant who plays with a wide base and plenty of core strength. Bursts off the line of scrimmage and has tremendous natural strength and power, able to dominate at the point of attack and wipe out defenders in the run game.

196. Luke Reimer LB Nebraska
Reimer shows good speed and closing burst when blitzing. He’s built like a defensive back but hits like a linebacker. Has sideline-to-sideline range and is a violent, wrap-up hitter. Makes the clean open-field tackle. Good effort in pursuit. Has enough twitch and speed to make an impact coming off the edge. He’s very good in coverage when looking into the backfield in zone coverage. He’s effective in pursuit when chasing down backs as a run defender, and Reimer has the athleticism to cover a lot of ground when dropping into coverage.

210. Evan Williams S Oregon
Williams has a tall, lean build with some muscle and moves incredibly well. He can flip his hips to change direction and cover receivers downfield stride-for-stride.Also efficient at playing the run, using his long, athletic frame to cover ground and make tackles against ball carriers. He is also a good coverage safety, allowing just one touchdown in 464 coverage snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.

219. Isaiah Davis RB South Dakota State
Fairly explosive runner with good acceleration, generating easy second-level momentum. Able to use one-cut agility and snappy footwork to redirect attack angles and find space with short-area energy can stack quick cuts and snake through crowds. Quick feet and strides allow him to glide into open lanes with decisiveness on zone runs.
I like this

Mine off of the top of my head would be

1. Legette or Thomas
Trade up using a 2/3 and a 4 for one of Morgan/Paul/Suamataia (BYU OT)
4. Cole Bishop S Utah

Sign in FA DeAndre Swift/Singletary.

Offense would look much better.
 
I like this

Mine off of the top of my head would be

1. Legette or Thomas
Trade up using a 2/3 and a 4 for one of Morgan/Paul/Suamataia (BYU OT)
4. Cole Bishop S Utah

Sign in FA DeAndre Swift/Singletary.

Offense would look much better.
I would love Thomas but he went right before 23 in that mock draft. I wouldn't mind a trade up to the 17/18 range to nab Thomas/Odunze/Coleman.

The pick was between Legette and Robinson. Both are positions of need. I have advocated for Legette in some of my other posts on here.

I am trying to familiarize myself with some of the 3rd and 4th round WR prospects in this draft if we don't take one in the 1st. Walker is someone that has the size/speed combination that we need. I watched his highlights and came away impressed with his hands as well.
 
I would love Thomas but he went right before 23 in that mock draft. I wouldn't mind a trade up to the 17/18 range to nab Thomas/Odunze/Coleman.

The pick was between Legette and Robinson. Both are positions of need. I have advocated for Legette in some of my other posts on here.

I am trying to familiarize myself with some of the 3rd and 4th round WR prospects in this draft if we don't take one in the 1st. Walker is someone that has the size/speed combination that we need. I watched his highlights and came away impressed with his hands as well.
I like Brenden Rice and Ainias Smith in that range. Very different WR's but both are explosive play makers.
 
I like Brenden Rice and Ainias Smith in that range. Very different WR's but both are explosive play makers.

I like Rice….but his name, pedigree, size, and speed will be his calling card. If he catches everything thrown to him and hits that 4.31-40 mark at the Combine and in his Pro Day…..he’s going to fly up the boards. Probably as high as RD2.

The other receiver that could see his stock soar is Johnny Wilson (Florida State) b/c of his shear size (6-7 @ 232 lbs) and the possibility of him popping 4.40-40. Let Collins and Dell line up outside and line Wilson up inside so he easily creates incredible mismatches….like TE, but a WR. Safeties would have to be fully aware of him b/c there wouldn’t be a LB that could contain him one on one.
 
I really like the first mock.

Just got through with a funeral and was sidetracked.
 
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Different mocks if you trouble to look at them
I really like the Dallas Turner mock but he seems to be a top 10 pick. I would be very happy with a Wilson/Eichenberg/Wright middle of the draft. Eichenberg has relentless motor that I think would fit perfect in Demeco's defense.
 
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I really like the Dallas Turner mock but he seems to be a top 10 pick. I would be very happy with a Wilson/Eichenberg/Wright middle of the draft. Eichenberg has relentless motor that I think would fit perfect in Demeco's defense.
Yeah, I was really surprised Turner fell in that mock... I took him as BPA of course, the others I selected from what was available
 
First, Texans have a fairly daunting schedule next season.

Two, Stroud more than proved that with good time in the pocket…..he’s going to carve up any defense in the NFL…..to include the Ravens.

Three, the team was pretty snake-bit with the injuries. If this team can stay healthier in 2024, a lot of the necessary pieces are already on the roster or will be signable free agents.

How much of an improvement would the Texans have defensively with the signing of pending FA, DT- Chris Jones (KC) and an offense that could reduce their 3 and outs while putting up leads early?

If I could get Jones into a new Texans jersey, then my defensive focus in the draft becomes Safety and CB…..that’s about it for the 2024 draft. The rest of this focus is adding the pieces needed to make this offense a beast.

RD1: RT- Mims (Georgia) or RT- Guyton (Oklahoma) / Both Mims and Guyton are true RT’s, but analyst seem to agree that Guyton has the athleticism to play both sides. Both players are road graders and seem more than capable of imposing their will on defenders.

RD2: CB- TJ Tampa (Iowa State) / Big CB that has the speed. Hip pocket coverage man who can defend the pass. Size and speed to help in the run game when needed. This kind of athleticism paired with Stingley could be a big punch in the right direction for the DB’s.

RD3: RB- Jaylen Wright (Tennessee) / Fast RB who can make it happen between the tackles as well as around the corner. He can be used out of the backfield and seems to have the hands to be a threat. The Vols didn’t use him like this, but his 2023 season proves he can catch when utilized. He’s also a solid blocking back, which would be a major upgrade with the Texans. If he pops a 4.3?-40 at the Combine or in his Pro Day…..his stock is going to rise fast, but should be there in late RD3 for the taking.

RD4: SS- Cole Bishop (Utah) or SS- Jaden Hicks (Washington State) / Take your choice here, but it will come down to who’s still on the board. Either player would be the answer for a big and fast Safety who can cover the intermediates and play the run.

RD4: WR- Brenden Rice (USC) / Big and fast (4.38-40 / 10.78-100) with a nice catch radius and good hands. Rice might need some work on his route tree, but when he hits the field with Collins and Dell, his job may be to just blow by single coverage or help stretch the field. He could also do some work as a ST return man since he did this a few times at Colorado. He’d be another receiving threat that could take the top off defenses. Would make a nice addition to the Collins/Dell tandem.

RD7: TE- Jared Wiley (TCU) / If he’s on the board when the Texans have their first in RD7 pick, get him sized up for a new Texans jersey. Big target who has soft hands and the ability to run after the catch. Can do the dirty work of blocking when needed. Another asset to Schultz (Re-Signed) and Jordan.

RD7: WR- Luke McCaffrey (Rice) / Could be a nice SWR who could be a zone eater with reliable hands. Texans had far too many 1st down and long gain drops this season. Stroud needs some sure handed targets to help loosen defenses trying to double up on with Collins or Dell.

RD7: DE- Jamaree Kromah (James Madison) / A mid school producer. At 6-4 and 275 lbs Jam produced 59 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 10 sacks. Has all the appearances of an NFL DE or someone Ryans could work with. If he’s still on the board in RD7…..then it could be a good draft from beginning to end.

I believe this draft would give the offense its pieces to take the next step. Stroud would have the extra protection and weapons to be seriously dangerous against any NFL defense.

The defensive backfield would get a couple of potential Day 1 starters to go along with what I hope would be the Texans Josh Hader moment……in signing DT, Chris Jones.
 
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