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Playoffs

mws said:
Texans (8-6) remaining opponents (22-20 .524)
(H) Browns 9-5
(H) Titans 5-9
@ Colts 8-6

Jaguars (8-6) remaining opponents (14-28 .334)
@ Buccaneers 7-7
(H) Panthers 2-12
@ Titans 5-9

Colts (8-6) remaining opponents (20-22 .476)
@ Falcons 6-8
(H) Raiders 6-8
(H) Texans 8-6
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Big games for Texans from here on. They can drop one, but will need a little help. Win out and you're in. If I had my choice of 2 out of the 3, I take the two division rivals.
Jags @ Bucks is no gimme for Jags.
Colts have the more favourable remaining schedule.
 
steelbtexan said:
There weren't a lot of bad moves. Using late rd picks to provide ol depth isn't a bad move. Sauce vs Stingley you could say was a bad move. Green is TBD IMHO. Re-signing Tunsil looks like a solid move.
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Sauce vs Stingley is not far enough along to me and also remains TBD! Stingley showed flashes of how good he can be against the Tits! I think he will make us forget about Sauce! We shall see.
 
TxnsJuggernaut1 said:
Sauce vs Stingley is not far enough along to me and also remains TBD! Stingley showed flashes of how good he can be against the Tits! I think he will make us forget about Sauce! We shall see.
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Stingley has only played in 8 games this season vs 13 for Gardner. So, Sauce has him in the availability department. But a case can be made that Stingley has outplayed Sauce in the games that are played. Stingley has more INTs (4-0), a lower completion % (55.9% - 61.2%), a lower passer rating when targeted (48.3 - 87.6), and a lower missed tackle % (9.4% - 21.9%). Gardner will likely get honors in regards to All Pro teams and the Pro Bowl. But Stingley has played at that level, just not in as many games.
 
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Lucky said:
Stingley has only played in 8 games this season vs 13 for Gardner. So, Sauce has him in the availability department. But a case can be made that Stingley has outplayed Sauce in the games that are played. Stingley has more INTs (4-0), a lower completion % (55.9% - 61.2%), a lower passer rating when targeted (48.3 - 87.6), and a lower missed tackle % (9.4% - 21.9%). Gardner will likely get honors in regards to All Pro teams and the Pro Bowl. But Stingley has played at that level, just not in as many games.
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Like I said, Stingley was the most talented player in that draft. (He's that good) Health has always been his thing and it's the reason I would have picked Sauce over Stingley.
 
steelbtexan said:
Like I said, Stingley was the most talented player in that draft. (He's that good) Health has always been his thing and it's the reason I would have picked Sauce over Stingley.
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Same, sometimes the best ability is availability. I think we might can get some good seasons out of him while he is on his rookie contract but I will be surprised, very pleasantly surprised, if he will be worth a contract extension once thats up because I think it will be to many games missed. Again I see him as a defensive version of Will Fuller. The fan side of me really hopes I'm wrong, the logical side of me doesn't think I am.
 
steelbtexan said:
Like I said, Stingley was the most talented player in that draft. (He's that good) Health has always been his thing and it's the reason I would have picked Sauce over Stingley.
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maverick512000 said:
Same, sometimes the best ability is availability. I think we might can get some good seasons out of him while he is on his rookie contract but I will be surprised, very pleasantly surprised, if he will be worth a contract extension once thats up because I think it will be to many games missed. Again I see him as a defensive version of Will Fuller. The fan side of me really hopes I'm wrong, the logical side of me doesn't think I am.
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Amazing.

Never get tired of patting yourselves on the back.
 
thunderkyss said:
Amazing.

Never get tired of patting yourselves on the back.
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I'm not patting myself on the back. I initially wanted Stingley, but after reading CnD's posts I backed off from Stingley and wanted to draft Neal at 1-3 and Davis at 1-13 the biggest baddest dudes in that draft. BTW, while Neal has struggled, I still think putting him at LG next to Tunsil and Davis anchoring the DL along with a rotation of Rankins and Collins was the better way to go. Even better would've been to spend 2-34 on Sam Williams and have depth for WA/Greenard. Instead we're hoping Stingley can stay healthy/Green can get healthy and Petrie is just having a sophomore slump. This doesn't even take into account that Metchie is struggling to get separation. Hopefully this is only because of his cancer layoff, but this doesn't look promising.

BTW, when it became obvious Caserio/Lovie weren't going to pick Neal, I wanted Sauce to be the pick.
 
Lucky said:
Stingley has only played in 8 games this season vs 13 for Gardner. So, Sauce has him in the availability department. But a case can be made that Stingley has outplayed Sauce in the games that are played. Stingley has more INTs (4-0), a lower completion % (55.9% - 61.2%), a lower passer rating when targeted (48.3 - 87.6), and a lower missed tackle % (9.4% - 21.9%). Gardner will likely get honors in regards to All Pro teams and the Pro Bowl. But Stingley has played at that level, just not in as many games.
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Thanks for the info. I mentioned that it was too soon to judge Stingley as a failure.
 
Playoff predictions

The number of permutations off those 48 games is impossibly large, so today we're going to focus on one scenario: chalk. Technically, we're looking for a specific kind of chalk -- the most common outcome of each conference. In other words, when we simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which combination of seven seeds occurs most often in each conference?

These seed combinations are still not particularly likely given all the uncertainty. There is a 5% chance that the NFC playoff field is exactly what you see below and only a 1% chance the AFC field is what's described here. But those are the most likely precise outcomes for each conference. There were exactly two simulations in which both conferences hit their most common outcome, and we have chosen one to demonstrate how the rest of the season could play out.
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Number19 said:
Looks like we're still in the hunt for a wild card spot.
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Better than that, I believe if we win out we're in. Destiny in our hands.

f283d0fcc5b6df5631ccd28393a1ac9a.jpg
 
JB said:
Yet only 1 team in the division has a losing record, I'd hardly call it a weak division this year with 3 teams talking playoffs
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Those three teams got spanked today with playoff implications. You are right that the fact that 3 teams in the running for the playoffs seems to indicate we are in a tough division but it seems all the teams are fading down the stretch. Whoever makes the playoffs in our division needs to finish the last two games on a high note or I doubt they will be well represented upon making them.
 
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thunderkyss said:
So which are the good teams in the conference outside the division leaders?
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Whichever teams are winning games that are vying for the playoffs as opposed to three or four teams in a division fading down the stretch. With playoff implications all three of the teams in our division got throttled. It is not very inspiring. I wouldn't say our division is weak based on the entirety of the season but I am not confident in our division being well represented in the playoffs for whoever makes them.
 
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TxnsJuggernaut1 said:
Those three teams got spanked today with playoff implications. You are right that the fact that 3 teams in the running for the playoffs seems to indicate we are in a tough division but it seems all the teams are fading down the stretch. Whoever makes the playoffs in our division needs to finish the last two games on a high note or I doubt they will be well represented upon making them.
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NFL Parity
 
JB said:
If anyone thought the Texans (or the Colts) could make any serious noise this season they were deluding themselves. What were you expecting?
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I wouldn’t say they’re deluding themselves, they’re being optimistic. We’ve seen teams make it to the playoffs with 7-9, 8-8 records and make it deep into the playoffs before.
 
JB said:
If anyone thought the Texans (or the Colts) could make any serious noise this season they were deluding themselves. What were you expecting?
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Three or four weeks ago I would say whoever makes the playoffs in our division would be competitive and well represented. Not so much now.
 
steelbtexan said:
Man they really should have won the Carolina game.
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With the way the Panthers have been competing lately along with Lawrence being held together with duct tape… I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jags lose to Carolina this week.

Matter of fact, I am expecting it.

Texans and Colts win their games, Jags lose. Setting up the final game of the season for the banner!
 
I would pretty satisfied if the Texans win, Raiders surprise the Colts, and the Panthers beat the Jags. Then the final week really does boil down to the Texans winning out.
 
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