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David Johnson- Rush total prediction

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
None of this addresses the record as HC that I laid out which is fact. A losing record as HC that stretched for like 5 or 6 years is not some small sample. Its a large one, and zero argument to put up for a losing record that is below 500.
Lol

You: "Your honor, we know without a shadow of doubt that he killed this man b/c he had the blood of the victim on his hands when the police arrived on the scene!"

Judge: " Ok counselor, make your case & prove it to me."

You: ":foottap:, didn't you hear me, he had the victims blood on his hands, that's a FACT & proves it!"

So him being the last HC to win a playoff game in the last 20 years for that terribly run franchise that was getting ready to move at that.............................. isn't "fact" & has nothing to do with anything.................................but his final record there, & the fact that it was over a 5-6 year period .....that has EVERYTHING to do with how good of a HC he was prior to Brady?

Lol, you either wanna discuss the details and circumstances around all that....... or you don't....& we both know you don't b/c as i noted earlier, it doesn't support your narrative. SOP unfortunately for you to ignore what doesn't jive with what you've brainwashed yourself into believing these days. If anything isn't relevant it's your "5-game drop off" nonsense considering that the odds of them losing a few games that following year after coming off a 16-0 perfect season were pretty damn high. But b/c it was Cassell at the helm, you have no problem formulating that nonsense. If Brady was the starter that season though, i'm sure your stance would be muuuuccchhh different.


Again, your one season you are trying to put up next to 5 or 6 others on two different teams is laughable and probably the worst "desperation" argument I've ever seen. I already acknowledged this, and reminded you that there was a "5 game drop-off" from the season before which was an undefeated team. So the only argument you are even using is one season where Belicheck had a team that went undefeated the season before, and lost an extra 5 games the next year. All you're doing is proving that Belicheck owes that 50% to Brady based on the numbers. This lame idea that you can just cancel out an entire era in Cleveland, because it doesn't fit a narrative makes your credibility totally fizzle here. You don't even want to address the statistics that you started this argument off with.
The only desperation i see around here is you........desperately trying to remove your head from the sand.......or from some orifice of a certain legend QB. I'm not trying to cancel out anything. Belichick's record is what it is in Cleveland...but his 5 year stint at the helm of what was a quickly devolving situation in Cleveland under an owner that was moving the franchise away still doesn't measure up to what he'd already done over a 20+ year career as a key component to multiple championships and deep playoff runs of other teams...Before Brady even got to the league. That counts & is something...How much...well obviously, you dont think that counts for much of anything........Brady stepped in & the rest is history. But anyone with even a MODICUM of objectivity.... saw those teams. We saw how they were built & run & won..they had BB's signature all over them...Not Tom Brady's.
 

Texecutioner

Hall of Fame
Lol

You: "Your honor, we know without a shadow of doubt that he killed this man b/c he had the blood of the victim on his hands when the police arrived on the scene!"

Judge: " Ok counselor, make your case & prove it to me."

You: ":foottap:, didn't you hear me, he had the victims blood on his hands, that's a FACT & proves it!"

So him being the last HC to win a playoff game in the last 20 years for that terribly run franchise that was getting ready to move at that.............................. isn't "fact" & has nothing to do with anything.................................but his final record there, & the fact that it was over a 5-6 year period .....that has EVERYTHING to do with how good of a HC he was prior to Brady?

Lol, you either wanna discuss the details and circumstances around all that....... or you don't....& we both know you don't b/c as i noted earlier, it doesn't support your narrative. SOP unfortunately for you to ignore what doesn't jive with what you've brainwashed yourself into believing these days. If anything isn't relevant it's your "5-game drop off" nonsense considering that the odds of them losing a few games that following year after coming off a 16-0 perfect season were pretty damn high. But b/c it was Cassell at the helm, you have no problem formulating that nonsense. If Brady was the starter that season though, i'm sure your stance would be muuuuccchhh different.




The only desperation i see around here is you........desperately trying to remove your head from the sand.......or from some orifice of a certain legend QB. I'm not trying to cancel out anything. Belichick's record is what it is in Cleveland...but his 5 year stint at the helm of what was a quickly devolving situation in Cleveland under an owner that was moving the franchise away still doesn't measure up to what he'd already done over a 20+ year career as a key component to multiple championships and deep playoff runs of other teams...Before Brady even got to the league. That counts & is something...How much...well obviously, you dont think that counts for much of anything........Brady stepped in & the rest is history. But anyone with even a MODICUM of objectivity.... saw those teams. We saw how they were built & run & won..they had BB's signature all over them...Not Tom Brady's.

41-55 was his record prior to Brady. (Losing record)

That's literally all I need for this argument to slash your initial statement to pieces.

Everything else you've said from that point on has been a waste of time, because the facts say otherwise. He's only been a great HC with Brady as his QB. Brady's offensive accomplishments like having 3 MVP's and a ton of other records amongst the top record holders in the sport make anyone even trying that sound foolish.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Lol

You: "Your honor, we know without a shadow of doubt that he killed this man b/c he had the blood of the victim on his hands when the police arrived on the scene!"

Judge: " Ok counselor, make your case & prove it to me."

You: ":foottap:, didn't you hear me, he had the victims blood on his hands, that's a FACT & proves it!"

So him being the last HC to win a playoff game in the last 20 years for that terribly run franchise that was getting ready to move at that.............................. isn't "fact" & has nothing to do with anything.................................but his final record there, & the fact that it was over a 5-6 year period .....that has EVERYTHING to do with how good of a HC he was prior to Brady?

Lol, you either wanna discuss the details and circumstances around all that....... or you don't....& we both know you don't b/c as i noted earlier, it doesn't support your narrative. SOP unfortunately for you to ignore what doesn't jive with what you've brainwashed yourself into believing these days. If anything isn't relevant it's your "5-game drop off" nonsense considering that the odds of them losing a few games that following year after coming off a 16-0 perfect season were pretty damn high. But b/c it was Cassell at the helm, you have no problem formulating that nonsense. If Brady was the starter that season though, i'm sure your stance would be muuuuccchhh different.




The only desperation i see around here is you........desperately trying to remove your head from the sand.......or from some orifice of a certain legend QB. I'm not trying to cancel out anything. Belichick's record is what it is in Cleveland...but his 5 year stint at the helm of what was a quickly devolving situation in Cleveland under an owner that was moving the franchise away still doesn't measure up to what he'd already done over a 20+ year career as a key component to multiple championships and deep playoff runs of other teams...Before Brady even got to the league. That counts & is something...How much...well obviously, you dont think that counts for much of anything........Brady stepped in & the rest is history. But anyone with even a MODICUM of objectivity.... saw those teams. We saw how they were built & run & won..they had BB's signature all over them...Not Tom Brady's.
Liked because I agree,

Fact is when you put a GAOT HC/GM who's willing to win at all costs and a GOAT QB you will have a20 yr run of excellence. I'm personally glad I got to watch greatness and I'm looking forward to the Arians Brady team and Belichick this yr.
 

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
PFF ranked the upcoming season's RB group:

**********************************************************

24. Houston Texans

The Texans acquired running back David Johnson as a part of the DeAndre Hopkins trade, and the team will hope to rejuvenate Johnson’s career as one of the best all-around backs in the league. Johnson did his best work in 2016 when he led the way with a 90.0 receiving grade, and he had 263 more receiving yards than any other running back. However, we haven’t seen that level of play from him in a while, and he’s been in and out of the lineup over the last three years while failing to rush for at least 4.0 yards per carry during that time.

Duke Johnson Jr. is the top returning running back, as he posted an 82.3 rushing grade to go with 3.8 yards after contact per attempt last season. Over the last three years, Duke has forced 0.25 missed tackles per attempt, second-best in the NFL, while ranking fifth among running backs with an 88.4 receiving grade. He could be in line for even more touches, especially given the difficult-to-cover playmakers the Texans have at wide receiver.

The rest of the depth chart is rounded out by relative unknowns in Buddy Howell and Karan Higdon. If David Johnson gets back to form, this is one of the best running back rooms in the league. But regardless of his performance, keep an eye on Duke Johnson, as he’s been one of the most productive backs since entering the league in 2015.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Two words:
Butt Chin
Perhaps but why is Duke still around? He must have some trade value. I think it was more of O'Brien's desire to run the ball which played into Hyde's career season. Will Kelly utilize RBs in passing game significantly? Perhaps that also played into David coming to Houston, small but a part.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
I just do not understand why Duke did not get more called passing plays.
Yes his specialty is catching the ball out of the backfield.........but its not just as simple as drawing up a play for him & that's it. For Duke to come onto the field, someone else has to come off. And just based on the guys' production who most likely would have to come off the field for him (Fells, Stills, Hyde) it was the right move to use him the way he was used. Duke is not & never has been a feature guy that should get more than 6-10 touches/looks a game unless the game's pace move towards us having alot of possesions...
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
Yes his specialty is catching the ball out of the backfield.........but its not just as simple as drawing up a play for him & that's it. For Duke to come onto the field, someone else has to come off. And just based on the guys' production who most likely would have to come off the field for him (Fells, Stills, Hyde) it was the right move to use him the way he was used. Duke is not & never has been a feature guy that should get more than 6-10 touches/looks a game unless the game's pace move towards us having alot of possesions...
That's fine, but that just means BOB paid WAY TOO MUCH for him. You don't spend a 3rd round pick for a 3rd down back. I think that's why people's expectations for him have been skewed.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
That's fine, but that just means BOB paid WAY TOO MUCH for him. You don't spend a 3rd round pick for a 3rd down back. I think that's why people's expectations for him have been skewed.


Ehh, who are we to say how much is too much for a 3rd down back? We talked briefly about this last week, but value is relative & draft picks are usually overvalued..especially in a league where greater than 50% of all draft picks selected will be out of football in 3-4 years.

Despite folks saying he didn't get enough touches/looks, Duke still gave us over 800 yds of offense and 5 TD's last year. Giving him more looks & touches wasn't likely going to improve on those numbers much more & that's top of the line production......... for a 3rd down back. Sure there are guys in similar roles who put up better numbers (Ekler) but not a whole lot. Most likely, you also weren't going to get that from a 3rd down draft pick.......or Alfred Blue if we had decided to go that route. Duke also came up huge in the Buffalo playoff game.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
Ehh, who are we to say how much is too much for a 3rd down back? We talked briefly about this last week, but value is relative & draft picks are usually overvalued..especially in a league where greater than 50% of all draft picks selected will be out of football in 3-4 years.

Despite folks saying he didn't get enough touches/looks, Duke still gave us over 800 yds of offense and 5 TD's last year. Giving him more looks & touches wasn't likely going to improve on those numbers much more & that's top of the line production......... for a 3rd down back. Sure there are guys in similar roles who put up better numbers (Ekler) but not a whole lot. Most likely, you also weren't going to get that from a 3rd down draft pick.......or Alfred Blue if we had decided to go that route. Duke also came up huge in the Buffalo playoff game.
Just like buying a house. How do you put a price on a house? You find similar houses that were recently sold and base the price off that deal.

I'm supposed to be working, so I can't really do the proper research right now. But a 2018 comparable that quickly jumped in my head was Jordan Howard.

Duke & Jordan play the same position, have similar remaining contracts, and are similar in age.

I would argue Jordan Howard is the better RB, but they are different types of backs, so not quite an apples-apples comparison. It is clear, though, that Howard plays more snaps and gets more touches than Duke.

Jordan Howard was traded for a conditional 6th round pick. THIS is why I say a 3rd round pick was too expensive for Duke Johnson.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
That's fine, but that just means BOB paid WAY TOO MUCH for him. You don't spend a 3rd round pick for a 3rd down back. I think that's why people's expectations for him have been skewed.
Good news is after this yr his cap hit will be minimal.

If healthy DJ's much more than a 3rd down RB.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Just like buying a house. How do you put a price on a house? You find similar houses that were recently sold and base the price off that deal.

I'm supposed to be working, so I can't really do the proper research right now. But a 2018 comparable that quickly jumped in my head was Jordan Howard.

Duke & Jordan play the same position, have similar remaining contracts, and are similar in age.

I would argue Jordan Howard is the better RB, but they are different types of backs, so not quite an apples-oranges comparison. It is clear, though, that Howard plays more snaps and gets more touches than Duke.

Jordan Howard was traded for a conditional 6th round pick. THIS is why I say a 3rd round pick was too expensive for Duke Johnson.
It's not just about the price of the house. It's about how much the price of the house increases in value while you're living there..

For the record, I think BOB slightlyoverpaid for Duke. But at the time I understood the move.

What do you consider the proper price for one of the best 3rd down backs in the NFL? I thought a 4th was the most I would have given up for Duke.
 

austins23

Hall of Fame
I wish I could find it, but I remember reading an article somewhere the other day about Duke being Top 3 in yards after contact. It almost 4 yards I think. Then the article went on about he could be used as a RB1 just because he really hasn't been used that much in his career. I'm pulling this off the top of my head, it's been a few beers since I read it. I've tried google and I can't find it. It may have been on Twitter, who knows.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
It's not just about the price of the house. It's about how much the price of the house increases in value while you're living there..

For the record, I think BOB slightlyoverpaid for Duke. But at the time I understood the move.

What do you consider the proper price for one of the best 3rd down backs in the NFL? I thought a 4th was the most I would have given up for Duke.
I'd have to do research for comparables, but I don't have that kind of time. Also factoring in Duke was demanding/requesting a trade, should have lowered the price. Honest question, who was the last RB traded for a 3rd or higher?
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Just like buying a house. How do you put a price on a house? You find similar houses that were recently sold and base the price off that deal.

I'm supposed to be working, so I can't really do the proper research right now. But a 2018 comparable that quickly jumped in my head was Jordan Howard.

Duke & Jordan play the same position, have similar remaining contracts, and are similar in age.

I would argue Jordan Howard is the better RB, but they are different types of backs, so not quite an apples-oranges comparison. It is clear, though, that Howard plays more snaps and gets more touches than Duke.

Jordan Howard was traded for a conditional 6th round pick. THIS is why I say a 3rd round pick was too expensive for Duke Johnson.
Howard is not a good comparison b/c he's a different type of back all together. When Chicago drafted him they tried to make him into a feature guy & found out that he's not that...mostly b/c his preferred style of running doesn't fit with what Nagy wants out of his backs....& b/c he's not really fast...& b/c he doesn't have alot of wiggle.........But most importantly b/c he has shitty hands. IOW's he's a dying breed as a RB; a thumper. He's actually more comparable to Carlos Hyde than Duke...& we pretty much picked him up off the scrap heap for little to nothing.

Guys like Phillip Lindsay, Ekler and Kamara...McCaffrey are much more valuable these days than guys like Howard. Duke fits in that mold slightly b/c he's great catching passes out of the backfield & that has value in today's game for sure, but he's not as fast, big or good of a runner between the tackles as the guys i named above.
 
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dream_team

Hall of Fame
Howard is not a good comparison b/c he's a different type of back all together. When Chicago drafted him they tried to make him into a feature guy & found out that he's not that...mostly b/c his preferred style of running doesn't fit with what Nagy wants out of his backs....& b/c he's not really fast...& b/c he doesn't have alot of wiggle.........But most importantly b/c he has shitty hands. IOW's he's a dying breed as a RB; a thumper. He's actually more comparable to Carlos Hyde than Duke...& we pretty much picked him up off the scrap heap for little to nothing.

Guys like Phillip Lindsay, Ekler and Kamara...McCaffrey are much more valuable these days than guys like Howard. Duke fits in that mold slightly b/c he's great catching passes out of the backfield & that has value in today's game for sure, but he's not as fast, big or good of a runner between the tackles as the guys i named above.
Like I mentioned, not an apples-apples comparison... but I still like it as a relative comparison.

Answer my previous question, then maybe we can find a better comp. Whom are some recent RBs traded for a 3rd or higher?
 

OptimisticTexan

6 Years- 1 Game and Counting!!!!
It's not just about the price of the house. It's about how much the price of the house increases in value while you're living there..

For the record, I think BOB slightlyoverpaid for Duke. But at the time I understood the move.

What do you consider the proper price for one of the best 3rd down backs in the NFL? I thought a 4th was the most I would have given up for Duke.
......depends on how the new HC plans to utilize him. Build on what made the team trade for him, great!!! Bring him on board then strip him of what made him trade for worthy, sucks!!! I'm all eyes to see how they plan to deploy Duke this season.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Like I mentioned, not an apples-apples comparison... but I still like it as a relative comparison.

Answer my previous question, then maybe we can find a better comp. Whom are some recent RBs traded for a 3rd or higher?
Noone recently that i can think of. LeSean McCoy? Marshawn Lynch? Demarco Murray? Jerome Bettis? The only 1 i know for sure is Faulk back in 2000... Either way the question is irrelevant b/c once again, value is relative. Polian traded Faulk for a 2nd but it is widely known that he was offered a 1st for him but he opted against & instead opted for other incentives with the 2nd. The Steelers got nothing for Le'veon Bell. You think they thought that his value was 0 to them?
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
Noone recently that i can think of. LeSean McCoy? Marshawn Lynch? Demarco Murray? Jerome Bettis? The only 1 i know for sure is Faulk back in 2000... Either way the question is irrelevant b/c once again, value is relative. Polian traded Faulk for a 2nd but it is widely known that he was offered a 1st for him but he opted against & instead opted for other incentives with the 2nd. The Steelers got nothing for Le'veon Bell. You think they thought that his value was 0 to them?
Pro football reference has a pretty cool "Trade Finder" tool. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/trade_finder.cgi

In the past 10 years, only ONE running back was traded for higher than the 90th overall pick (what we gave up for Duke). That was when the Colts traded a 1st for Trent Richardson, and we can all agree that's one of the worst trades in NFL history.

Some notable deals:
  • In 2010, Leon Johnson + 7th was traded to Seahawks for a 5th.
    • Leon was a 3rd down back that got similar number of touches as Duke.
  • In 2010, Laurence Maroney + 6th was traded to Broncos for a 4th
    • Maroney was a part-time starter that got more touches than Duke does per season
  • In 2010, a young Marshawn Lynch was traded to the Seahawks for a 4th & 5th (the next season)
    • a former 1st round pick and 1000yd rusher for the Bills, then arguably a HOFer w/ the Seahawks
  • In 2014, Darren Sproles to the Eagles for a 5th
    • one of the best 3rd down backs ever
  • In 2016, Demarco Murray to the Titans to move up 13 spots in the 4th round
    • only one season removed from gaining 2000+ all purpose yards
  • In 2019, Kenyan Drake was traded to the Cardinals for a 5th
When comparing those deals to the Duke deal... then Yes, we overpaid for a good 3rd down RB.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Pro football reference has a pretty cool "Trade Finder" tool. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/trade_finder.cgi

In the past 10 years, only ONE running back was traded for higher than the 90th overall pick (what we gave up for Duke). That was when the Colts traded a 1st for Trent Richardson, and we can all agree that's one of the worst trades in NFL history.

Some notable deals:
  • In 2010, Leon Johnson + 7th was traded to Seahawks for a 5th.
    • Leon was a 3rd down back that got similar number of touches as Duke.
  • In 2010, Laurence Maroney + 6th was traded to Broncos for a 4th
    • Maroney was a part-time starter that got more touches than Duke does per season
  • In 2010, a young Marshawn Lynch was traded to the Seahawks for a 4th & 5th (the next season)
    • a former 1st round pick and 1000yd rusher for the Bills, then arguably a HOFer w/ the Seahawks
  • In 2014, Darren Sproles to the Eagles for a 5th
    • one of the best 3rd down backs ever
  • In 2016, Demarco Murray to the Titans to move up 13 spots in the 4th round
    • only one season removed from gaining 2000+ all purpose yards
  • In 2019, Kenyan Drake was traded to the Cardinals for a 5th
When comparing those deals to the Duke deal... then Yes, we overpaid for a good 3rd down RB.
well that’s the difference between you and I..I don’t value anything against what someone else has or hasn’t done. You do that, you’re reluctant to take chances on anything.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
well that’s the difference between you and I..I don’t value anything against what someone else has or hasn’t done. You do that, you’re reluctant to take chances on anything.
I don't really quite understand your response. I like Duke, I'm glad we have Duke. I want Duke more involved in the offense. I just feel if BOB envisioned using Duke strictly as a 3rd down back, the way he used him last season, then he paid too much.

I feel like the Browns offered him for a 3rd and BOB instantly took it! Not counter offer or negotiations involved. In regards to trading for draft capital, he's the 2nd most expensive running back in the last 10 years!
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
I don't really quite understand your response. I like Duke, I'm glad we have Duke. I want Duke more involved in the offense. I just feel if BOB envisioned using Duke strictly as a 3rd down back, the way he used him last season, then he paid too much.

I feel like the Browns offered him for a 3rd and BOB instantly took it! Not counter offer or negotiations involved. In regards to trading for draft capital, he's the 2nd most expensive running back in the last 10 years!
1st lets remember a few things.

1st, Duke was traded for a conditional 4th rounder ........................a 4th rounder that could become a 3rd if he was active for 10 games. But then we lost Miller for the season like 2 weeks later. A week after that we acquired Hyde. Considering that Duke was also injured when we traded for him, I think the plan was to let him take his time recovering & only have him active for 10 games thereby keeping his compensation down to a 4th rounder. The Miller injury sort of forced their hand on a number of fronts though. By them going out & quickly landing Hyde, its pretty clear they didn't believe Duke was a guy they could feature..but b/c the drop down from Miller to Hyde was so drastic in terms of catching balls out of the backfield, I think they felt like they needed Duke's skill set to balance out Hyde lack of skills in that dept & so Duke wound up being active for all 16.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
1st lets remember a few things.

1st, Duke was traded for a conditional 4th rounder ........................a 4th rounder that could become a 3rd if he was active for 10 games. But then we lost Miller for the season like 2 weeks later. A week after that we acquired Hyde. Considering that Duke was also injured when we traded for him, I think the plan was to let him take his time recovering & only have him active for 10 games thereby keeping his compensation down to a 4th rounder. The Miller injury sort of forced their hand on a number of fronts though. By them going out & quickly landing Hyde, its pretty clear they didn't believe Duke was a guy they could feature..but b/c the drop down from Miller to Hyde was so drastic in terms of catching balls out of the backfield, I think they felt like they needed Duke's skill set to balance out Hyde lack of skills in that dept & so Duke wound up being active for all 16.
So BOB intended to trade a 4th round pick for a 3rd down back that he only intended to activate for 9 games (which was half the season)? Hmmm... that doesn't make things better to me.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Yes his specialty is catching the ball out of the backfield.........but its not just as simple as drawing up a play for him & that's it. For Duke to come onto the field, someone else has to come off. And just based on the guys' production who most likely would have to come off the field for him (Fells, Stills, Hyde) it was the right move to use him the way he was used. Duke is not & never has been a feature guy that should get more than 6-10 touches/looks a game unless the game's pace move towards us having alot of possesions...
Totally disagree as it is exactly that simple. Even if you perceive him only to be a third down back (I don't) he could have been utilized much more. He is a very consistent back last two seasons and unfortunately was used incorrectly by O'Brien as he also did with Lamar Miller. There were several times Watson was in an empty backfield behind a questionable line. Hyde was not on field and Duke could have been. O'Brien has shown no evidence that he will move away from a ground and pound RB and that is the concern I have with David replacing Hyde. Unless OB actually allows Kelly to call plays, I fear DJ1 will be used as was Hyde and Miller before him. DJ1 can run between tackles but I would hope to see his receiving skills used but hope can be a weak one in this case. I am also concerned that pounding DJ1 will cause injury and everyone will scream how bad he was.

Coach used Hyde in a 'use him up and hope he lasts' and while Hyde had a career season IIRC, many of those yards were not helpful to team or wins. A feature back should have had more than six touchdowns.

Next (not directed to your post) I am excited about the overall speed of our WR corps but it wasn't that many seasons ago, many of us were saying same about our WRs and L. Millers speed. That ended like a balloon releasing air slowly; no pop just disappointment.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I don't really quite understand your response. I like Duke, I'm glad we have Duke. I want Duke more involved in the offense. I just feel if BOB envisioned using Duke strictly as a 3rd down back, the way he used him last season, then he paid too much.

I feel like the Browns offered him for a 3rd and BOB instantly took it! Not counter offer or negotiations involved. In regards to trading for draft capital, he's the 2nd most expensive running back in the last 10 years!
I think Bill envisioned Duke as what he saw Lamar Miller could be; the issue with that is Bill didn't use LM or DJ2 as their skills set would indicate. LMiller goes down and Bill sees a way to possibly get something for Rankin and Hyde fills Coach's hatbox as a downhill RB that can move rock and eat clock.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
1st lets remember a few things.

1st, Duke was traded for a conditional 4th rounder ........................a 4th rounder that could become a 3rd if he was active for 10 games. But then we lost Miller for the season like 2 weeks later. A week after that we acquired Hyde. Considering that Duke was also injured when we traded for him, I think the plan was to let him take his time recovering & only have him active for 10 games thereby keeping his compensation down to a 4th rounder. The Miller injury sort of forced their hand on a number of fronts though. By them going out & quickly landing Hyde, its pretty clear they didn't believe Duke was a guy they could feature..but b/c the drop down from Miller to Hyde was so drastic in terms of catching balls out of the backfield, I think they felt like they needed Duke's skill set to balance out Hyde lack of skills in that dept & so Duke wound up being active for all 16.
It is not clear at all; in fact using your own words Duke was injured and we wanted to allow him to heal. here is some info:
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
  • Johnson caught a career-low 44 passes in 2019. His 9.3 yards per catch checked in a touch above his career average.
  • The 26-year-old has yet to miss an NFL game.
  • David Johnson’s arrival crushes Duke’s upside — at least on the surface. But given David’s advanced age and injury history, it’s quite possible Duke emerges as more than a change of pace back.
IIRC his last significant injury was a concussion 2015 preseason and he returned game one.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Totally disagree as it is exactly that simple. Even if you perceive him only to be a third down back (I don't) he could have been utilized much more. He is a very consistent back last two seasons and unfortunately was used incorrectly by O'Brien as he also did with Lamar Miller. There were several times Watson was in an empty backfield behind a questionable line. Hyde was not on field and Duke could have been. O'Brien has shown no evidence that he will move away from a ground and pound RB and that is the concern I have with David replacing Hyde. Unless OB actually allows Kelly to call plays, I fear DJ1 will be used as was Hyde and Miller before him. DJ1 can run between tackles but I would hope to see his receiving skills used but hope can be a weak one in this case. I am also concerned that pounding DJ1 will cause injury and everyone will scream how bad he was.

Coach used Hyde in a 'use him up and hope he lasts' and while Hyde had a career season IIRC, many of those yards were not helpful to team or wins. A feature back should have had more than six touchdowns.

Next (not directed to your post) I am excited about the overall speed of our WR corps but it wasn't that many seasons ago, many of us were saying same about our WRs and L. Millers speed. That ended like a balloon releasing air slowly; no pop just disappointment.
Utilized much more over who though? No defense fears Duke running the ball. He doesn't run hard & a pack a punch that wears down a defense over the course of a game. He's not ridiculously slippery in space like a Sproles. He doesn't have breakaway speed either and he's never carried the ball more than 130 times in any 1 season since he's been in the league. The team that drafted him in the 3rd also didn't think much of him as an every down runner either considering that they brought in several guys over the course of his tenure there all the way up until he was traded to us.......(Kareem Hunt late in 2019) that wound up taking the lionshare of the carries over him.

So what large set of data do you have that says he could be more than what he's been his entire career?

For you to say that he could've been utilized more you're saying:

He was a better runner between the tackles than Hyde...which is a push at best
He's a better pass catching option than Fells, Stills or any other pass catcher not named Nuk that he would've been replacing...which is also a push at best.

Don't fall into the trap in thinking that b/c he was able to have a couple of nice rips here & there running/catching the ball throughout the course of a game/season that he can do that down in/down out. The precise reason he could do that is b/c he was used sparingly as a change of pace utility guy...Kinda like Kevin Faulk for the patriots for so many years who was NEVER the feature guy for them despite being a great pass catching option for Brady and the Pats for a number of years. In his case as in Duke's case, more touches does not necessarily mean they would be better and produce more.

What it also doesn't mean is that he couldn't stand in as the feature guy for a game or 2 every season.....but He was utilized exactly as he should've been...as he's been utilized his entire career.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
It is not clear at all; in fact using your own words Duke was injured and we wanted to allow him to heal. here is some info:
IIRC his last significant injury was a concussion 2015 preseason and he returned game one.
Considering that they went out and got Hyde literally 1 week after Miller went down, its clear to me that he was never going to be the feature guy..especially knowing that he was dealing with a hamstring & he was relatively new to the system.

It was either going to be Miller and perhaps Taiwan Jones or some other young guy for a few games while Duke took his time getting healed up.......or it was going to be how it eventually wound up once Miller went down, Some cheap veteran FA RB............& Duke as a compliment to him.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I'd have to do research for comparables, but I don't have that kind of time. Also factoring in Duke was demanding/requesting a trade, should have lowered the price. Honest question, who was the last RB traded for a 3rd or higher?
Off of the top of my head, Clinton Portis was traded up for Champ Bailey.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Utilized much more over who though? No defense fears Duke running the ball. He doesn't run hard & a pack a punch that wears down a defense over the course of a game. He's not ridiculously slippery in space like a Sproles. He doesn't have breakaway speed either and he's never carried the ball more than 130 times in any 1 season since he's been in the league. The team that drafted him in the 3rd also didn't think much of him as an every down runner either considering that they brought in several guys over the course of his tenure there all the way up until he was traded to us.......(Kareem Hunt late in 2019) that wound up taking the lionshare of the carries over him.

So what large set of data do you have that says he could be more than what he's been his entire career?

For you to say that he could've been utilized more you're saying:

He was a better runner between the tackles than Hyde...which is a push at best
He's a better pass catching option than Fells, Stills or any other pass catcher not named Nuk that he would've been replacing...which is also a push at best.

Don't fall into the trap in thinking that b/c he was able to have a couple of nice rips here & there running/catching the ball throughout the course of a game/season that he can do that down in/down out. The precise reason he could do that is b/c he was used sparingly as a change of pace utility guy...Kinda like Kevin Faulk for the patriots for so many years who was NEVER the feature guy for them despite being a great pass catching option for Brady and the Pats for a number of years. In his case as in Duke's case, more touches does not necessarily mean they would be better and produce more.

What it also doesn't mean is that he couldn't stand in as the feature guy for a game or 2 every season.....but He was utilized exactly as he should've been...as he's been utilized his entire career.
I Enjoy the discussion, you seem to focus on Duke being a feature back that can pound between tackles. No one is saying that. Change up the downs when he can be inserted, keep defense thinking with more options than Hyde.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
I Enjoy the discussion, you seem to focus on Duke being a feature back that can pound between tackles. No one is saying that. Change up the downs when he can be inserted, keep defense thinking with more options than Hyde.
If you watch his touches throughout the season, there wasn’t any particular down he was inserted in...yes, it was more likely that he was in on 3rd and long situations, but he saw his fair share of 1st and 2nd down touches too. It was truly a random thing precisely for the reasons you state.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator / Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
David Johnson is Incredibly Jacked Heading into First Season With Texans

DavidJohnson2020.jpg

When Bill O'Brien and the Houston Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals in a deal that brought in David Johnson, it was met with a lot of criticism.

That deal is in the past now, though, and it's time for Houston and its fans to start focusing on what Johnson can bring to the team. By the looks of this recent picture from training camp, DJ is in some of the best shape of his career, and he means business in 2020.

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