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David Johnson- Rush total prediction

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
I count 16 with 1,000+ yards. So half the league had a thousand yard rusher. Hyde being among them supports my argument in my opinion. No reason DJ can't match that output assuming my previously stated caveat of 16 full games is met.

Additionally, many of the RB between #17 and 32 in rushing yards didn't play 16 games and several who did play 16 were in a more balanced platoon situation than I expect between David and Duke.

1,000 yards in 16 full games is not unrealistic in my view.
1,000 yards as a measure of a RB has been ridiculous since the league went to a 16 game season. How many yards would Jim Brown have if he played in a 16 game season? 15,024 yards in 9 seasons. Brown retired in his prime. If he played as long as Emmitt Smith, he would have over 30,000 rushing yards.
 

KA4Texan

Weirdo Mode Engaged
Contributor's Club
This is what I'm afraid of. Then back to same ol stuff.
Well, after last season and months of quarantine....

IF the product looks the same or worse on the field...... OB is REALLY going to go off on a fan at some point.

I certainly dont see the comments getting nicer towards him.

But here is to hoping he gets out of his own way.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Have we ever figured out what O’Brien wants to do on offense yet? Making these predictions (pass yardages and how many yards David Johnson has this season) is particularly difficult with this team. Good conversations but none of us should feel too comfortable telling others their predictions are bad. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Especially when considering we have a rookie OC, and a HC that has too often game planned his offense right into the teeth of the opposing defenses strength.
I agree and hope O'Brien's sole input is SCORE!
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I got that. I'm just afraid ol OB is too much of an egomaniac to just hand the reigns to Kelly and let him go. Just my personal opinion of course. Lots of questions to be answered. Will Kelly have the cajones to scrap much of OB's tired, boring playbook and implement his own? Will OB let him? I'm kind of leaning to @steelbtexan idea that Watson can now spread the heck out of the ball. Lots of options to throw to but the playbook has got to be more creative than....1,001,1,002,1,003,1,004,1,005, oh crap, run for your life and chuck it to Hopkins. I guess in seasons past Watson could have only got to 1,003 before tuckin and runnin!

As much as I dislike the Pats, I wouldn't mind seeing a "death by a thousand cuts" offense like Brady and company used. With Cooks and Fuller it could be a few hundred cuts and then the cut to the jugular. Ahhh, wishful thinking.
I think if we see the Patriots offense as you described the Texans will lose almost every game. The way this offense has been created this off season I expect to see big time plays Almost every down. Successful? That remains to be seen. We don't have RBs or WRs for small cuts, as I see this roster. TEs may bring some short gains for first downs but I just cannot picture these RBs getting them consistently. If we try to run as much as Coach has historically mandated, the Dolphins will be ecstatic.

If Cook and Fuller are to get hundreds of little cuts they will be in Hospital emergency rooms after every game. If David had no injury history, we might get a season out of banging him through the line. Oh, I think that could be the thought; use him up and dump his contract next off season. The odds if used that way are astronomically against him making ten games. No, plan has to be to use his catching skills and slashes mixed with some power runs.

Now for a wait a minute exception, if RG Warford starts game one, we should see a shift to more power runs and short yard first down plays.
 

austins23

Hall of Fame
If Cook and Fuller are to get hundreds of little cuts they will be in Hospital emergency rooms after every game.
I wrote that wrong and was too lazy to go back and change it. I meant that DJX2 in the backfield, the TE's and Cobb and Stills will provide the thousand cuts. Add the running game that I would expect to be better. THEN Cooks and Fuller will supply the kill shot when the Safeties start sneaking up. That's when Fuller and Cooks can test that hammies!
 

RGV82

Random guy
If he stays healthy. 800 yards rushing 400 yards receiving 6TDs.

but he wont stay healthy.
I know Uncle Rico has me on ignore and I never bother responding to his posts, but this one I 100 percent agree with. 800-1000 yards if healthy, 400 receiving yards and 5-6 TDs, but will most likely go down with injury.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
Rushing seems low, receiving seems high.
He did between 500-700 his first three years, and without a true WR1 taking a lot of targets, there will be a spreading of the wealth. Is this more a matter of thinking that OB won't use him properly, or about his ability to produce at that level?
 

RGV82

Random guy
He did between 500-700 his first three years, and without a true WR1 taking a lot of targets, there will be a spreading of the wealth. Is this more a matter of thinking that OB won't use him properly, or about his ability to produce at that level?
What are you talking about? David Johnson didn’t get 500-700 yards receiving his first 3 years. He has only broke 500 yards once in his entire career.
 

CloakNNNdagger

Hall of Fame
Texans plan to expand their offense with David Johnson and Duke Johnson in the backfield
Patrick D. Starr
3 hours ago

The trade for running back David Johnson changed the complexion of the Houston Texans offense by adding him to returning backfield threat Duke Johnson. Now with two backs that are threats running or receiving the football, defenses will have to account for the Texans running back group in 2020.

Last season, Carlos Hyde led the Texans in rushing with 1,070 yards on the ground but only had 16 targets with ten receptions for 42 yards. Playing in 529 offensive snaps, he was an afterthought in the passing game and not a concern for opposing defenses in coverage.

David Johnson had the lowest production of his career in 2019 with the Cardinals, David Johnson rushed 94 times for 345 yards and two touchdowns while catching 36 passes for 370 yards and four touchdowns.
In his first season with the Texans, Duke Johnson rushed for 410 yards and caught 44 passes for 210 yards with a total of five touchdowns.

Johnson arrived in the middle of training camp, putting him behind learning the playbook, but now he is getting a full off-season with the Texans, which has offensive coordinator Tim Kelly excited.

"We're excited to have both those guys back there and especially with Duke. This is the first offseason that Duke is going through."

The top duo for the Texans running back room opens up plenty of possibilities for the offense on game days with both being dual-threats out of the backfield.

Kelly likes how both David Johnson and Duke Johnson change things for the Texans offense from their skillsets.

THE REST OF THE STORY
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Have we ever figured out what O’Brien wants to do on offense yet? Making these predictions (pass yardages and how many yards David Johnson has this season) is particularly difficult with this team. Good conversations but none of us should feel too comfortable telling others their predictions are bad. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Especially when considering we have a rookie OC, and a HC that has too often game planned his offense right into the teeth of the opposing defenses strength.
Of course we'll have to see, but given the makeup and skill sets of our players, an Air Coryell offensive scheme seems most likely. I thought we had discussed this some weeks back.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Of course we'll have to see, but given the makeup and skill sets of our players, an Air Coryell offensive scheme seems most likely. I thought we had discussed this some weeks back.
We have discussed this in the past.

Some just want the WCO.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Of course we'll have to see, but given the makeup and skill sets of our players, an Air Coryell offensive scheme seems most likely. I thought we had discussed this some weeks back.
If you ask me … and you didn't -

I'd say a west coast system best suits this bunch - particularly Watson and the two backs.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
If you ask me … and you didn't -

I'd say a west coast system best suits this bunch - particularly Watson and the two backs.
Seeing this bunch under Kubiak/Shanahan would be a sight to see... either would do amazing things
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
We've got a bunch of WCO disciples on the MB.

Y'all think DW4 is best suited for the WCO, tell me which QB y'all think isn't best suited for the WCO?
 

Mangler

Veteran
This question wasn't directed to you, but you mean a guy like Schaub?

I was just curious which QB they thought wouldn't be better running the WCO.
Actually, Schaub was damn good running the WCO. He just wasn’t the same after his foot injury. The Butt Chins love to point at 2013 as if that was prime Schaub and ignore 09-2012. His play fake/play action was sick, and he was no dual threat QB by any stretch of the imagination. I can only imagine how good Watson could be running the WCO with the ZBS. Our O-line would probably be top 10 as it stands.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
If you ask me … and you didn't -

I'd say a west coast system best suits this bunch - particularly Watson and the two backs.
Wow, open ended comment. I have to agree that the two Johnsons are ideal for the WCO.

What are the signature features of the WCO? First it would be an emphases on the passing game over the running game and at the low end, a 70-30 split. Second would have to be an emphases on the horizontal game rather than the vertical, with short, high percentage passes with 10-15 yd passes. A third feature is the use of quicker, and faster, running QB's. The QB is required to quickly read and pick the best receiver to throw to and be extremely accurate in his passes.

The WCO is also a complicated offense, with the receivers having to make as many as three reads and adjusting their routes depending on the defense and their reads. The QB is required to make the same reads and be in sync with their receivers. The receivers are required to run a precise, complicated route tree. The QB typically has a progression of three reads before checking off to the RB or a TE.

Finally, the WCO emphasizes smaller, sure handed receivers who can catch in traffic and then has run-after-the-catch ability.

The reason I suspect the Texans' offense will more closely be Air Coryell is the personnel they have put in place. We have a strong TE group, not an emphasis in the WCO. We also have two deep burners in Fuller and Cook who more closely match up to a Coryell passing offense.

Also the offense is less complicated in the reads than that required by the WCO, with the deep pass being the first option. With WR and RB motion, a staple of AC, it's easier for the QB to read whether the defense will be in man or zone. Also, a Watson strength is the accuracy of his deep ball.

O'Brian has always placed an emphasis on running the football. Air Coryell does this more so than the WCO

The Texans have the personnel to implement the WCO, it's just that the personnel better fits Air Coryell.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
You got to admit the WCO is a beautiful offense to watch when it's clicking
Yes, but it's an extremely complicated offense in its defensive reads and requires the QB and the receivers to be making these reads the same. It's a veteran offense that requires discipline, cohension and familiarity between the players.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Wow, open ended comment. I have to agree that the two Johnsons are ideal for the WCO.

What are the signature features of the WCO? First it would be an emphases on the passing game over the running game and at the low end, a 70-30 split.
Second would have to be an emphases on the horizontal game rather than the vertical, with short, high percentage passes with 10-15 yd passes. A third feature is the use of quicker, and faster, running QB's. The QB is required to quickly read and pick the best receiver to throw to and be extremely accurate in his passes.
We disagree here on a lot of issues …..

First , it isn't simply a horizontal game , its a vertical and horizontal stretching of the field - that's the foundation of the WCO. That's why it pairs so well with a zone blocking scheme.

The WCO takes the EP and Coryell's idea's of stretching the field vertically and adds the horizontal element.

Also , a 70/30 split isn't written anywhere in the manual - its all about staying on schedule down / distance. I don't think there is any ideal split that doesn't take into account personnel - Do what you are good at.






The WCO is also a complicated offense, with the receivers having to make as many as three reads and adjusting their routes depending on the defense and their reads. The QB is required to make the same reads and be in sync with their receivers. The receivers are required to run a precise, complicated route tree. The QB typically has a progression of three reads before checking off to the RB or a TE.
The route tree's are really no more complicated than the EP …. take what the defenders give.

Finally, the WCO emphasizes smaller, sure handed receivers who can catch in traffic and then has run-after-the-catch ability.
Really don't think that's the case - what it requires is precise route runners - size doesn't matter - good routes and great hands do.

The reason I suspect the Texans' offense will more closely be Air Coryell is the personnel they have put in place. We have a strong TE group, not an emphasis in the WCO. We also have two deep burners in Fuller and Cook who more closely match up to a Coryell passing offense.
Great TE play can be incorporated into any scheme - We used to call one of our TE's Open Daniels …. Again , as I said up above , what you run is based off of who you got running it.

Also the offense is less complicated in the reads than that required by the WCO, with the deep pass being the first option. With WR and RB motion, a staple of AC, it's easier for the QB to read whether the defense will be in man or zone. Also, a Watson strength is the accuracy of his deep ball.

Yes , the WCO reads are a bit more complex than a Coryell …. you are reading defenders and zones , not just who's open. I think Watson can do that - they already incorporate much of this in the current EP. Question is if the receivers can.

O'Brian has always placed an emphasis on running the football. Air Coryell does this more so than the WCO
The differences are one stretching vertically while the other stretches both horizontally and vertically at the same time - some of the same concepts that make RRO's / RRPO's work are rooted in the WCO.

You look at the backs the Texans had while they ran this system and outside of Foster , none were particularly special - yet they piled up yards. Steve Slaton , Ben Tate , Justin Forsett.

In one , the system makes the players , in the other the players make the system.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
This is a copy cat league. Whatever works, is copied by every team.

Whether it's stretching defenses horizontally, or utilizing the unaccounted for QB in the running game, or utilizing extremely athletic TEs... quick passing, no huddle, zone blocking, etc...

I've seen Pittsburgh, New England, & New Orleans look like they're running WCO, run & shoot, Power O... whatever is all the rage at the time.

The only real difference between the WCO & the EP is terminology. After that, depending on the coach & his personnel they can look very similar.
 

Earl34

Veteran
How would you define the difference between the WCO & the EP systems?
Here is a good quick summary. It almost seems like the Patriots incorporated more WCO elements in their EP version. While O'Brien has incorporated more Air Coryell concepts.

WCO
"The entire philosophy is designed to attack east and west instead of north and south. Quarterbacks will often take quick 3 steps drops to get the ball out quickly. Throws will come out quickly so the linemen need to make quality blocks, but will not be forced to stay on the blocks. Routes are designed to run within 10-15 yards from the line of scrimmage, utilizing 50 yards from east to west. Running backs will be available for check down passes creating a higher quarterback completion rate. This allows a few yards to be gained instead of a throw away or forced throw into tight coverage on well defended plays. The offense is designed to take what the defense gives, whether it be 3 yards or 15 yards."

Air Coryell
"The entire philosophy is designed to attack the defense deep with long and time consuming route running. Long pass attempts north and south to dictate the safety’s to play deep and end the drive on one fiery play. Quarterbacks will often take 5-7 step drops and hold onto the ball while receivers clear on long north and south routes. This decreases the quarterback’s completion rate due to the volume of contested passes and possible turnovers. Offensive linemen are forced to hold onto blocks for extended periods of time so the play can develop downfield. The offense uses motion to isolate mismatches and confuse the defense with the objective of matching speed players against slower players. The offense is designed to dictate what the defense will give, attempting to strike fear of going for it all on every play."

 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
The only real difference between the WCO & the EP is terminology.
Watch the 1981 49ers to see the original version of the WCO. RBs had over 40% of the team's completions. The passes to the backs offset the running game. Moved the LBs outside to cover, and opened up the middle for slants and crossing routes. Changed the game forever.

The only team recently that looks like the '81 Niners? The Patriots of the past 5 years (with the EP terminology). RBs regularly pickup 30%+ of the team's receptions. The Texans? Less than 20% to the RBs. We'll see if that changes much with the addition of David Johnson.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Watch the 1981 49ers to see the original version of the WCO. RBs had over 40% of the team's completions. The passes to the backs offset the running game. Moved the LBs outside to cover, and opened up the middle for slants and crossing routes. Changed the game forever.

The only team recently that looks like the '81 Niners? The Patriots of the past 5 years (with the EP terminology). RBs regularly pickup 30%+ of the team's receptions. The Texans? Less than 20% to the RBs. We'll see if that changes much with the addition of David Johnson.

Just for the record …. that's not the original version of Walsh's offense - that would be the Bengals of the early 70's with Virgil Carter and then Ken Anderson at QB under Paul Brown ….
 


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