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David Johnson- Rush total prediction

SnakeEyes

Waterboy
I'm going glass is half full and he is 100%. If so, I don't see why he can't get 1300-1400. You know he is good if healthy...so don't flame me too much
 

Lucky

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Staff member
I think there will be one more RB in the mix that's not currently on the roster. Preferably a guy that can pickup 1sts and TDs in short yardage. A guy that can pound the rock in a 4 minute offense. Optimistically, David gets 700, Duke gets 500, Mystery Back gets 300, and Watson his usual 400-500. That would work while not asking anyone to do too much.
 
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Seegara

Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
I think there will be one more RB in the mix that's not currently on the roster. Preferably a guy that can pickup 1sts and TDs in short yardage. A guy that can pound the rock in a 4 minute offense. Optimistically, David gets 700, Duke gets 500, Mystery Back gets 300, and Watson his usual 400-500. That would work while not asking anyone to do too much.
We have that bullish back in Gilaspia. Question is, will Teapot use him that way? Doubtful. He hasn't used him much in any capacity.
 

michaelm

vox nihili
In the somewhat unlikely scenario that he plays 16 full games, I think he can get 1,000 or so. That's only 62.5yds per game.
A thousand yards ain't what it used to be.

I definitely do not see Duke getting 800 as previously mentioned
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
I'm going glass is half full and he is 100%. If so, I don't see why he can't get 1300-1400. You know he is good if healthy...so don't flame me too much
As much as I want to believe this, he's really only had one great season. He was healthy last season and lost his starting job. I'm a bit more skeptical and hoping to see more of a 50/50 split with Duke.
 

RGV82

Random guy
I’m thinking 1,100 yards 14 TDs
If healthy, I think your yardage is spot on.... between 1000-1100 yards, but your TDs are WAY too high. He will probably have 7-8 TDs rushing. No primary back has ever reached that number under BOB and doubt it would happen this year. Hyde had 6 last year, and Lamar Miller had 5, 3 and 5 the previous three years. Watson will account for 8-10 rushing TDs himself, plus too many passing options to go around.
 

RGV82

Random guy
800ish. Duke gets the other 800ish.
Only if David Johnson gets injured. We did not bring David Johnson in to split the load 50-50 with Duke. If you are predicting 1600 total rushing yards between the 2 RBs, it will more likely be a 1100 for Johnson, 500 for Duke type of split.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
your TDs are WAY too high. He will probably have 7-8 TDs rushing. No primary back has ever reached that number under BOB and doubt it would happen this year. Hyde had 6 last year, and Lamar Miller had 5, 3 and 5 the previous three years. Watson will account for 8-10 rushing TDs himself
How many Rushing TDs did Fitz, Hoyer, Mallet, Oswieller, & Tom Savage have before Watson?
 

RGV82

Random guy
How many Rushing TDs did Fitz, Hoyer, Mallet, Oswieller, & Tom Savage have before Watson?
That is completely beside the point and irrelevant. My point is, that under Watson, running backs have not gotten over 6 TDs in a season. Hyde 6 last year, and Miller had 5 and 3. So your prediction for Johnson to get 14 TDs under Watson is way too much.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
That is completely beside the point and irrelevant. My point is, that under Watson, running backs have not gotten over 6 TDs in a season. Hyde 6 last year, and Miller had 5 and 3. So your prediction for Johnson to get 14 TDs under Watson is way too much.
you mean under BO’b.

which is why I brought up other QBs under BO’b vs Watson. Watson isn’t a carbon copy of the otherQBs we’ve had under BO’b.

what Lamar Miller did or didn’t do is irrelevant to what David Johnson will do. I mean we’re bringing in David Johnson because he is not Lamar Miller.
 

RGV82

Random guy
you mean under BO’b.

which is why I brought up other QBs under BO’b vs Watson. Watson isn’t a carbon copy of the otherQBs we’ve had under BO’b.

what Lamar Miller did or didn’t do is irrelevant to what David Johnson will do. I mean we’re bringing in David Johnson because he is not Lamar Miller.
No, I mean under Watson. Watson and his rushing TDs totals have gone up steadily and takes away rushing TDs from the RBs.... my point is the running backs are not being given as many opportunities at rushing TDs when the QB is a threat to run the ball in himself. You are being WAY overly optimistic if you think David Johnson will average nearly 1 rushing TD per game, have Watson rush for 8 TDs, and Duke for another 2-4.
 
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RGV82

Random guy
How many Rushing TDs did Fitz, Hoyer, Mallet, Oswieller, & Tom Savage have before Watson?
So if you think David Johnson is gonna rush 14 TDs.... Watson and Duke will rush for another 10 total, Watson should pass for 32-34 TDs, plus 25-30 field goals, plus some defensive scores.... you are projecting we hit well over 500 points this year. Under BOBs system with Watson, no RB is set up to score 14 TDs in a season.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
No primary back has ever reached that number under BOB and doubt it would happen this year. Hyde had 6 last year, and Lamar Miller had 5, 3 and 5 the previous three years. Watson will account for 8-10 rushing TDs himself, plus too many passing options to go around.
This is what I’m referring to, why I brought up BO’bs other QBs. Why they were relevant to the conversation.
if you think David Johnson will average nearly 1 rushing TD per game, have Watson rush for 8 TDs, and Duke for another 2-4.
I didn’t say anything about DW4


Under BOBs system, no RB is set up to score 14 TDs in a season.
& that’s another thing. I’m under the impression BO’b is out of the “offense building” game, as an OC anyway.

Kelly, Smith, & Watson are building this offense.
 
I’m guessing he will get no more than 220 carries due to either injury or lack of production. So I’ll predict 820 yards. I do believe his receiving production will keep him on the field more than his rushing production alone would merit and I’m optimistic that he could do better than I predict.
 

RGV82

Random guy
I’m guessing he will get no more than 220 carries due to either injury or lack of production. So I’ll predict 820 yards. I do believe his receiving production will keep him on the field more than his rushing production alone would merit and I’m optimistic that he could do better than I predict.
Totally believe in his receiving capabilities, my only question is exactly how they are going to distribute touches on 3rd down between 2 capable receiving RBs (David and Duke).
 

edo783

Hall of Fame
I think we will be chucking the rock more so I expect his receiving yards to be pretty good, about 6-700 yards. His running yards will be about 7-800 yards, unless we pickup that Saints guard, then I could see BOB wanting to just try and pound it out. If that happens, I doubt Johnson holds up for more than half the season. Then we switch to chucking it like we should have from the start.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
In the somewhat unlikely scenario that he plays 16 full games, I think he can get 1,000 or so. That's only 62.5yds per game.
A thousand yards ain't what it used to be.

I definitely do not see Duke getting 800 as previously mentioned
People keep saying that, but still only 15 RBs did it last season. That's not even half the league.

I think anything 1,000 or better would be a big surprise. Certainly not expecting it, but if it happens, great. How much does it really change anything though? Hyde had 1,070 last year and if there were ever a 1,000 yards ain't what it used to be type season, that was it considering he had just three 100 yard games, and averaged 3.6 YPC the last half of the season.

Everybody keeps referring to his 2016 season, but in his last full season, 2018, he had 940 yards at a 3.6 YPC clip. That's not even as good as what Hyde gave you last year. Now, he did add another 440 yards through the air as opposed to Hyde's 42 yards, so there's that aspect of it.

I also think that having David more involved in the pass game, because he's a lot more capable there than Hyde ever could be, is going to take away from Duke's opportunities in that area. Duke got 78% of the targets to RBs last year. He will NOT come close to that with David active.
 

michaelm

vox nihili
People keep saying that, but still only 15 RBs did it last season. That's not even half the league.

I think anything 1,000 or better would be a big surprise. Certainly not expecting it, but if it happens, great. How much does it really change anything though? Hyde had 1,070 last year and if there were ever a 1,000 yards ain't what it used to be type season, that was it considering he had just three 100 yard games, and averaged 3.6 YPC the last half of the season.

Everybody keeps referring to his 2016 season, but in his last full season, 2018, he had 940 yards at a 3.6 YPC clip. That's not even as good as what Hyde gave you last year. Now, he did add another 440 yards through the air as opposed to Hyde's 42 yards, so there's that aspect of it.

I also think that having David more involved in the pass game, because he's a lot more capable there than Hyde ever could be, is going to take away from Duke's opportunities in that area. Duke got 78% of the targets to RBs last year. He will NOT come close to that with David active.
I count 16 with 1,000+ yards. So half the league had a thousand yard rusher. Hyde being among them supports my argument in my opinion. No reason DJ can't match that output assuming my previously stated caveat of 16 full games is met.

Additionally, many of the RB between #17 and 32 in rushing yards didn't play 16 games and several who did play 16 were in a more balanced platoon situation than I expect between David and Duke.

1,000 yards in 16 full games is not unrealistic in my view.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
I count 16 with 1,000+ yards. So half the league had a thousand yard rusher. Hyde being among them supports my argument in my opinion. No reason DJ can't match that output assuming my previously stated caveat of 16 full games is met.

Additionally, many of the RB between #17 and 32 in rushing yards didn't play 16 games and several who did play 16 were in a more balanced platoon situation than I expect between David and Duke.

1,000 yards in 16 full games is not unrealistic in my view.
15 RBs, 1 QB.
 

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
I predict around 1300+ with a grand total of 1700+ all purpose yards with 13 Touchdowns.
You've gone from sipping :koolaid: to an IV drip with that prediction. Those are All-Pro numbers that he's equaled once in 5 years. I'll definitely take the under on this one.
 

RGV82

Random guy
You've gone from sipping :koolaid: to an IV drip with that prediction. Those are All-Pro numbers that he's equaled once in 5 years. I'll definitely take the under on this one.
LOL, me too. He got those numbers with 300 carries and 80 receptions on an offense that was centered ENTIRELY on him and Fitzgerald. No way he ever repeats those numbers again. He is too broken down and we have too many other weapons to use to ever think about trying to give him those kind of touches and attention. Even if we tried, he would probably get injured by week 4.
 

SnakeEyes

Waterboy
No, I mean under Watson. Watson and his rushing TDs totals have gone up steadily and takes away rushing TDs from the RBs.... my point is the running backs are not being given as many opportunities at rushing TDs when the QB is a threat to run the ball in himself. You are being WAY overly optimistic if you think David Johnson will average nearly 1 rushing TD per game, have Watson rush for 8 TDs, and Duke for another 2-4.
It depends, Johnson is a very good receiver and he can line up as a WR at times. So, while I'm not going to say 14TDs is right... he could have more than expected. That's total TDs not running only. If used that way 30-ish percent of the time and say 6-7 running. He could get another 4-5 catching. But we will have to see what they do first. If 99% a runner, your right 14 is probably too high. And he can return kicks too...but will OB risk him that way? I don't think so. You don't trade a star WR and then subject a higher price contract guy to PR or KR unless you have to.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
If healthy, I think your yardage is spot on.... between 1000-1100 yards, but your TDs are WAY too high. He will probably have 7-8 TDs rushing. No primary back has ever reached that number under BOB and doubt it would happen this year. Hyde had 6 last year, and Lamar Miller had 5, 3 and 5 the previous three years. Watson will account for 8-10 rushing TDs himself, plus too many passing options to go around.
True but if our Speedy wide receivers open up the middle like I hope Johnson could be gone for quick 6. Any RB averaging less than 4.0 by game eight should be cut.
 

banned1976

All Pro
Have we ever figured out what O’Brien wants to do on offense yet? Making these predictions (pass yardages and how many yards David Johnson has this season) is particularly difficult with this team. Good conversations but none of us should feel too comfortable telling others their predictions are bad. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Especially when considering we have a rookie OC, and a HC that has too often game planned his offense right into the teeth of the opposing defenses strength.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Have we ever figured out what O’Brien wants to do on offense yet? Making these predictions (pass yardages and how many yards David Johnson has this season) is particularly difficult with this team. Good conversations but none of us should feel too comfortable telling others their predictions are bad. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Especially when considering we have a rookie OC, and a HC that has too often game planned his offense right into the teeth of the opposing defenses strength.
I know he wants this power running offense like the Titans had last season. He also wants to run an offense that can exploit the different defensive weaknesses. Example if the defense is weak against the run, then O’Brien wants to run the ball. The problem is sometimes he does the polar opposite lol if the defense is very strong in stopping the run. He runs the ball up the gut too much during that game.
 

austins23

Hall of Fame
I’m not saying that it will happen, but that’s what the poster was implying would happen calling him a rookie OC.
I got that. I'm just afraid ol OB is too much of an egomaniac to just hand the reigns to Kelly and let him go. Just my personal opinion of course. Lots of questions to be answered. Will Kelly have the cajones to scrap much of OB's tired, boring playbook and implement his own? Will OB let him? I'm kind of leaning to @steelbtexan idea that Watson can now spread the heck out of the ball. Lots of options to throw to but the playbook has got to be more creative than....1,001,1,002,1,003,1,004,1,005, oh crap, run for your life and chuck it to Hopkins. I guess in seasons past Watson could have only got to 1,003 before tuckin and runnin!

As much as I dislike the Pats, I wouldn't mind seeing a "death by a thousand cuts" offense like Brady and company used. With Cooks and Fuller it could be a few hundred cuts and then the cut to the jugular. Ahhh, wishful thinking.
 


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