as for Tagovailoa, I wanted to dive into both the tape and the data to pick up where Pizzuta left off to see how a quarterback who put up an above average of 5.4 Total Points Earned per game over his first seven starts suffered such a drop-off in Weeks 16 and 17.
Week 16 vs Las Vegas Raiders
In the first half of the game against the Raiders, a few things jump off the film right away. First of all, this is still the quarterback that we remember from Alabama and he didn’t lose the traits that most evaluators liked about him in the first place. He is an athletic player, he shows good arm talent in terms of strength and especially accuracy, and he has a pocket awareness combined with a niftiness that allows him to keep his eyes downfield. By the same token, Tagovailoa was clearly a tick slow to process, lacking the anticipation that never seemed to be a question within the scope of his college career.
It’s possible that this was a misevaluated portion of Tua’s game coming out of Alabama. Maybe the same way that we all fell in love with Reggie Bush without fully considering the impact of having run blocking that looked more like punt return spacing than anything that he would see in the NFL, we fell for it again, but this time it was the Jeudy-Ruggs-Smith-Waddle juggernaut that benefited our protagonist.
From the looks of this film, though, it might just be that the Dolphins receivers are the polar opposite of that Crimson crew. The receivers are unable to create separation, and another phenomenon that I have seen which might be at play is that when people are consistently not open, eventually the quarterback stops expecting people to be open, and then a spiral can occur that he misses his opportunities when they do become available. With this group, Tagovailoa’s rhythm is light years away from what it was in college, and the Dolphins continuing to feed him conservative play calls only exacerbates things more.
On that playcalling, perhaps it’s unsurprising that offensive coordinator Chan Gailey resigned after the season given that instead of Tua and the scheme jelling together as the year progressed, Tagovailoa played his worst football at the end of the season. As Pizzuta also noted, it’s not as if there are no vertical opportunities built into Gailey’s offense because we saw Ryan Fitzpatrick hit on those very same concepts when he entered the game. That said, for whatever reason Tagovailoa seemed to grow less confident as the year wore on, and without attacking vertically the field became constricted.
Besides the receivers and playcalling, the Dolphins’ offensive line had major issues against Oakland. Miami had some success giving three rookie OLs significant playing time in 2020, but Week 16 made the case that prioritizing a lineman like Oregon’s Penei Sewell at the top of the draft would be wise.
While we’re on the subject of Tagovailoa taking a beating, Tua needs to take advantage of a full off-season and beef up like Lamar Jackson did between Year 1 and Year 2.
Week 17 vs Buffalo Bills
Against the Bills, Tagovailoa had his worst game of the year, but what was interesting about this one was how out of character this game was for him. We have all seen enough Ryan Fitzpatrick over the years to know that Fitz-magic comes and goes, but it was bizarre to see Tua throw caution to the wind and play a very Fitzian game, gunslinging and taking risks. The problem was that Tua played like the bad version of Fitzpatrick, including three interceptions, and his teammates did him no favors.
In the first half, the mistakes were everywhere for the Dolphins’ offense, including missed assignments up front and a slew of dropped passes.
After falling way behind, Tagovailoa clearly got the halftime message to push the ball to DeVante Parker with the season on the brink, and the Dolphins had some success here. Tua came out and looked like an approximation of Fitzpatrick against the Raiders, and the Dolphins scored on a drive where the rookie QB took risks and trusted Parker in a few different contested situations. Of course, the Fitzpatrick impression went the other direction on the next drive when Parker inexplicably fell down on his break and Tua had thrown in his direction blindly, leading to an interception.
Playing from behind, the high-volume attack continued, but as time wore on it became more clear that trying to imitate Fitzpatrick is not the best way for Tagovailoa to be his best self. He threw two more interceptions, both out of character. One was on a throw over the middle – a good read with poor placement. That was out of character for Tua whose over-the-middle accuracy is usually excellent (he completed 72% of his passes that were between the numbers heading into Week 17). The other was a miscommunication, a product of Tua forcing things.
It’s clear that in order to succeed, Tagovailoa needs to play in a more open system where he can push the ball down the field, especially on early downs, to get chunk plays and force the defense to defend the entire field. He has shown the ability to do this. What he hasn’t been able to do is make blind throws to covered receivers, and the amount of forcing the ball that he had to do resulted in his least accurate performance of the season.
Final Word
Despite a rough end to the season and potential for the distracted boyfriend meme in the direction of Justin Herbert, a closer examination of Tagovailoa shows that he still has the traits that led Miami to draft him in the first place. He is an athletic quarterback who moves well in and out of the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and shows plus accuracy on both short and deep passes. While he couldn’t transcend receivers that had a hard time creating separation as a rookie, there is little evidence on film to show that he can’t perform when receivers are open (and can catch).
While a case can be made strategically for or against drafting another quarterback at third overall, it will come down to the evaluation of the available players against the internal evaluation of Tagovailoa, which Brian Flores has rightfully pointed out is by definition more informed than yours or mine.
What is less disputable is the way that wide zone play-action offenses have proliferated around the NFL in large part because the scheme has shown the ability to make mediocre quarterbacks functional (see Goff, Jared) and great quarterbacks transcendent (see Rodgers, Aaron). The system fits with the way Flores wants to control the game defensively, and the bootleg-heavy system is a great way to create multiple launch angles for the diminutive Tagovailoa.
Final Word
Despite a rough end to the season and potential for the distracted boyfriend meme in the direction of Justin Herbert, a closer examination of Tagovailoa shows that he still has the traits that led Miami to draft him in the first place. He is an athletic quarterback who moves well in and out of the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and shows plus accuracy on both short and deep passes. While he couldn’t transcend receivers that had a hard time creating separation as a rookie, there is little evidence on film to show that he can’t perform when receivers are open (and can catch).
While a case can be made strategically for or against drafting another quarterback at third overall, it will come down to the evaluation of the available players against the internal evaluation of Tagovailoa, which Brian Flores has rightfully pointed out is by definition more informed than yours or mine.
What is less disputable is the way that wide zone play-action offenses have proliferated around the NFL in large part because the scheme has shown the ability to make mediocre quarterbacks functional (see Goff, Jared) and great quarterbacks transcendent (see Rodgers, Aaron). The system fits with the way Flores wants to control the game defensively, and the bootleg-heavy system is a great way to create multiple launch angles for the diminutive Tagovailoa.
Final Word
Despite a rough end to the season and potential for the distracted boyfriend meme in the direction of Justin Herbert, a closer examination of Tagovailoa shows that he still has the traits that led Miami to draft him in the first place. He is an athletic quarterback who moves well in and out of the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and shows plus accuracy on both short and deep passes. While he couldn’t transcend receivers that had a hard time creating separation as a rookie, there is little evidence on film to show that he can’t perform when receivers are open (and can catch).
While a case can be made strategically for or against drafting another quarterback at third overall, it will come down to the evaluation of the available players against the internal evaluation of Tagovailoa, which Brian Flores has rightfully pointed out is by definition more informed than yours or mine.
What is less disputable is the way that wide zone play-action offenses have proliferated around the NFL in large part because the scheme has shown the ability to make mediocre quarterbacks functional (see Goff, Jared) and great quarterbacks transcendent (see Rodgers, Aaron). The system fits with the way Flores wants to control the game defensively, and the bootleg-heavy system is a great way to create multiple launch angles for the diminutive Tagovailoa.
Final Word
Despite a rough end to the season and potential for the distracted boyfriend meme in the direction of Justin Herbert, a closer examination of Tagovailoa shows that he still has the traits that led Miami to draft him in the first place. He is an athletic quarterback who moves well in and out of the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and shows plus accuracy on both short and deep passes. While he couldn’t transcend receivers that had a hard time creating separation as a rookie, there is little evidence on film to show that he can’t perform when receivers are open (and can catch).
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What is less disputable is the way that wide zone play-action offenses have proliferated around the NFL in large part because the scheme has shown the ability to make mediocre quarterbacks functional (see Goff, Jared) and great quarterbacks transcendent (see Rodgers, Aaron). The system fits with the way Flores wants to control the game defensively, and the bootleg-heavy system is a great way to create multiple launch angles for the diminutive Tagovailoa.