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All encompassing 2023 Draft thoughts thread.

Lucky said:
They take OT Broderick Jones. Why do the Texans take Witherspoon when they could take Quentin Johnston or Bijan Robinson?
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BR would make our ground game a force for sure but Texans have historically been inattentive to this aspect of their game. They got extremely lucky with Arian Foster as they took him as an UDFA.
The highest I can remember them taking a RB is in the 3rd round.
Perhaps with this new regime that could possibly change.
 
Texansphan said:
Jahmyr Gibbs is not as good a blocker but is faster and pretty good receiver in his own right and won't cost you your #12 pick .
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Robinson may be the only value pick @ #12. If he's there. I'm hoping for a trade down to pick up an extra day 2 pick. But not holding my breath.
 
Lucky said:
Robinson may be the only value pick @ #12. If he's there. I'm hoping for a trade down to pick up an extra day 2 pick. But not holding my breath.
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Would be painful to wait once the Texans are on the clock around say, #18 and BR, MM, Bryan Branch and Nolan Smith are on the board
 
TexansFan15 said:
They moved up for a tackle. They have a tackle need to protect Pickett, so jumped the Jets for the OT they want.
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Still wouldn't do it, Witherspoon is special, but love for Texans to snag him #12. Far as Pittsburgh preferred tackle, what is your source? If I'm mocking Steelers and CB1 not available (higher grade) my preferred would be Tennessee RT Darnel Wright, he fits Steeler mentality of enforcer, size/strength elite. The right projection #17 for them without giving up any draft capital.
 
beerlover said:
Still wouldn't do it, Witherspoon is special, but love for Texans to snag him #12. Far as Pittsburgh preferred tackle, what is your source? If I'm mocking Steelers and CB1 not available (higher grade) my preferred would be Tennessee RT Darnel Wright, he fits Steeler mentality of enforcer, size/strength elite. The right projection #17 for them without giving up any draft capital.
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I don’t have a specific source per se. I just listen to a bunch of draft analysis and mock drafts. The quote of the Steelers trying to build a “Pickett Fence” for OL was referenced. I’m not 100% sure, but I have seen them mocked OT a bunch of times.
 
Lucky said:
It's crazy. You love the 2 CBs in this draft (Witherspoon & Forbes) that I think are the most overrated. And they're completely different players. Go figure?
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CB is my jam.

Witherspoon could be moved everywhere, inside, outside, slot safety, he’s physical and relentless with traits.

Forbes reminds me of a light Sauce Gardner. Elite length, traits and is a ballhawk. 2nd overall grade @ the Combine. Ran 4.35 with 1.48 10 yard & almost 11ft BJ which confirms explosiveness and change in direction.

Not digging too deep because doubt Texans select CB until later, given quality/depth of class plus taking Stingley last year 3rd overall.
 
beerlover said:
CB is my jam.

Witherspoon could be moved everywhere, inside, outside, slot safety, he’s physical and relentless with traits.

Forbes reminds me of a light Sauce Gardner. Elite length, traits and is a ballhawk. 2nd overall grade @ the Combine. Ran 4.35 with 1.48 10 yard & almost 11ft BJ which confirms explosiveness and change in direction.

Not digging too deep because doubt Texans select CB until later, given quality/depth of class plus taking Stingley last year 3rd overall.
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Witherspoon will get flagged a lot if he plays CB in the NFL like he did in college. A lot. Then there are the questions about his ability to turn and run with NFL receivers. Many questions for a 1st round CB.

I've already gone over my qualms about Forbes. But go take a look at the 2021 Bama/Miss St game. Metchie take a 2 yard pass from Young and takes it 50+ yards. Guess who never tries to get off a block on the TD? That will not fly in the NFL.
 
Forbes was playing left outside the hash, there was a moving pick (Alabama gets away with murder, especially grievous are defensive spearing no calls) anyway Forbes had to switch but Young hit Metchie over middle, not a player within 10 yards. Forbes closed distance but too late to wrap up Metchie who ran 46 yards untouched for a TD. It was a great play design, mismatch between two schools one with Heisman QB.

Speaking of Young, he creates space around him with his legs, creating throwing lanes, space to escape pressure and allowing release point to elevate over tackles & ends. His 20 yard out throws however lack velocity and die towards receivers feet (noticed watching this game) also ball is not a dart and has some wobble to it. Pretty sure Carolina will select Stroud so we’ll get to see first hand, soon enough, Young with Metchie breaking ankles.
 
Texansphan said:
BR would make our ground game a force for sure but Texans have historically been inattentive to this aspect of their game. They got extremely lucky with Arian Foster as they took him as an UDFA.
The highest I can remember them taking a RB is in the 3rd round.
Perhaps with this new regime that could possibly change.
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When was the last time guys from that Shanny-Kubiak tree spent a 1st rd pick on a rb?
 
leebigeztx said:
When was the last time guys from that Shanny-Kubiak tree spent a 1st rd pick on a rb?
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Oh yeah - I can't see it happening.
Although, with a slam dunk type guy you know they must have thought about it.
Singletary is not a slam dunk guy, but is proven to be more than just serviceable. I think he will compliment DP nicely and that is why they brought him in plus it saves them from having to take a guy up high.
 
Texansphan said:
Oh yeah - I can't see it happening.
Although, with a slam dunk type guy you know they must have thought about it.
Singletary is not a slam dunk guy, but is proven to be more than just serviceable. I think he will compliment DP nicely and that is why they brought him in plus it saves them from having to take a guy up high.
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What do you mean he's not a slam dunk guy? I didn't understand why Buffalo didn't give him the ball more. He's very similar in style and stature to Maurice Jones Drew. He's short, but powerful and breaks arm tackles. As long as the defense can make stops and get off the field, between Singletary, Pierce, and a rookie, they should be in the 35 carry range as a group.
 
leebigeztx said:
What do you mean he's not a slam dunk guy? I didn't understand why Buffalo didn't give him the ball more. He's very similar in style and stature to Maurice Jones Drew. He's short, but powerful and breaks arm tackles. As long as the defense can make stops and get off the field, between Singletary, Pierce, and a rookie, they should be in the 35 carry range as a group.
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Don't get me wrong, I was very happy when I saw they brought him in.
With those two in our backfield, we will have a fresh weapon available on every running play.
 
Lucky said:
Witherspoon will get flagged a lot if he plays CB in the NFL like he did in college. A lot. Then there are the questions about his ability to turn and run with NFL receivers. Many questions for a 1st round CB.
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Witherspoon became a special teams standout as a freshman. He also earned respect with a goal-line tackle in an upset of Wisconsin. The next season, he became a starting cornerback, and head coach Lovie Smith made a startling statement, calling him “probably the toughest guy on our team pound-for-pound.”
 
On the recent Reuter mock on nfl.com Quentin Johnston was the Texans pick at 33 and Brian Branch was still on the board. I’ve noticed this to be the case as well occasionally on PFN’s mock draft simulator. Makes for a very interesting discussion on BPA at 33 if both are on the board. Both also had top 30 visit with Texans which makes me think they are on Texans radar in that range, if not for 12.

Johnston is higher need pick and higher ceiling. Would certainly love to have him at 33.

But Branch is such a clean prospect and a good bet to be a ten year starter in the secondary. Whether he’s nickel back or safety. He can play anywhere in the secondary and be a plus starter. He reminds me a lot of Pitre in that he’s a versatile chess piece with an exceptional football IQ. Pitre has better timed speed, i’d say Branch is the better tackler. Both are true alphas and leaders on the team. Measurables very similar across the board and are oozing intangibles.

This year secondary is probably the strongest position group on the team. But Thomas, King and Nelson’s contracts all expire next season and Ward is only here on a two year deal.

Adding Branch sets up the secondary for legion of boom type potential with three core players on rookie deals.

Suffice to say i’m running the card up to the podium for Branch if he’s at 33!
 
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TheRealJoker said:
On the recent Reuter mock on nfl.com Quentin Johnston was the Texans pick at 33 and Brian Branch was still on the board. I’ve noticed this to be the case as well occasionally on PFN’s mock draft simulator. Makes for a very interesting discussion on BPA at 33 if both are on the board. Both also had top 30 visit with Texans which makes me think they are on Texans radar in that range, if not for 12.

Johnston is higher need pick and higher ceiling. Would certainly love to have him at 33.

But Branch is such a clean prospect and a good bet to be a ten year starter in the secondary. Whether he’s nickel back or safety. He can play anywhere in the secondary and be a plus starter. He reminds me a lot of Pitre in that he’s a versatile chess piece with an exceptional football IQ. Pitre has better timed speed, i’d say Branch is the better tackler. Both are true alphas and leaders on the team. Measurables very similar across the board and are oozing intangibles.

This year secondary is probably the strongest position group on the team. But Thomas, King and Nelson’s contracts all expire next season and Ward is only here on a two year deal.

Adding Branch sets up the secondary for legion of boom type potential with three core players on rookie deals.

Suffice to say i’m running the card up to the podium for Branch if he’s at 33!
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I second your opinion. I’d pick Branch. He’s solid. Imagine him Pitre, Stingley and another young piece (maybe Brents, Rush, or Bennett) as the foundation of our secondary. I 100% would choose him every single time.
 
TexansFan15 said:
I second your opinion. I’d pick Branch. He’s solid. Imagine him Pitre, Stingley and another young piece (maybe Brents, Rush, or Bennett) as the foundation of our secondary. I 100% would choose him every single time.
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Can you imagine our QB having a #1 receiver to throw to?
That would be something.
 
TheRealJoker said:
On the recent Reuter mock on nfl.com Quentin Johnston was the Texans pick at 33 and Brian Branch was still on the board. I’ve noticed this to be the case as well occasionally on PFN’s mock draft simulator. Makes for a very interesting discussion on BPA at 33 if both are on the board. Both also had top 30 visit with Texans which makes me think they are on Texans radar in that range, if not for 12.

Johnston is higher need pick and higher ceiling. Would certainly love to have him at 33.

But Branch is such a clean prospect and a good bet to be a ten year starter in the secondary. Whether he’s nickel back or safety. He can play anywhere in the secondary and be a plus starter. He reminds me a lot of Pitre in that he’s a versatile chess piece with an exceptional football IQ. Pitre has better timed speed, i’d say Branch is the better tackler. Both are true alphas and leaders on the team. Measurables very similar across the board and are oozing intangibles.

This year secondary is probably the strongest position group on the team. But Thomas, King and Nelson’s contracts all expire next season and Ward is only here on a two year deal.

Adding Branch sets up the secondary for legion of boom type potential with three core players on rookie deals.

Suffice to say i’m running the card up to the podium for Branch if he’s at 33!
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What's the falloff to the next available DB/WR? Who can you get with the next pick?
 
Texansphan said:
Can you imagine our QB having a #1 receiver to throw to?
That would be something.
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The likelihood of Branch being a set it and forget it ten year starter is greater than Johnston being a WR1. That’s why I would take him over Johnston. Reuter’s mock is posted in the mock draft thread if you want to see how the board falls in this scenario.
 
This guy ranked as the 5th best WR on PFF's top 101 NCAAF player list.
His bio reads very good on nfldraftbuzz.com
Runs a 4:53 40 which is not bad but not good enough to take the top off the defense.
Needs some pro style coaching to bring him along but would definitely upgrade Texans receiver corp.
Can be had around the 130 - 140 range so a move up from 161 will be required.
 
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This is a consensus among almost all mocks and boards and that amounts to about a thousand. I also calculated in their highest ranking to get this list.
1. Bryce Young
2. CJ Stroud
3. Will Anderson
4. Jalen Carter
5. Anthony Richardson
6. Christian Gonzalez
7. Tyree Wilson
8. Devon Witherspoon
9. Will Levis
10. Peter Skoronski
11. Paris Johnson
12. Bijan Robinson
13. Myles Murphy
14. Joey Porter
15. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
16. Quentin Johnson
17. Lukas Van Ness
18. Jordan Addison
19. Brian Bresee
20. Nolan Smith
21. Michael Mayer
22. Dalton Kincaid
23. Brian Branch
24. Kelee Ringo
25. Calijah Kancey
26. Cam Smith
27. Deonte Banks
28. Zay Flowers
29. O'Cyrus Torrence
30. Darnell Wright
31. Darnell Washington
32. Anton Harrison
*33. Jahmyr Gibbs

I know many will disagree with #4 and #5, but it is what it is - no favoritism on my part - I personally rank both lower.
I also added #33 as that is Texans pick and the first on day 2.
So many were tied but current consensus ranking placed them above the other. The top 17 were clear cut with just a point between most of them.
 
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JB said:
The experts are as divided as this board and sound about the sme
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No-one knows for sure but quality players must be a premium as they are good enough to start day 1 and play well. These guys will adjust and learn the playbook just like anyone else - maybe better.
Look for "blue chip" guys if you can get them first.
If a particular position is deep in a draft, you can perhaps choose one of those from a lower round.
Some positions are viewed as lesser priority like RB, FB, K, P.
You rarely see SS or FS in the top half of the first round unless they are special like Kyle Hamilton in 2021. These positions can yield a good talent in a lower round like Justin Reid.
If your talent scouts are very good, you can find the odd gem from the skill positions in the lower rounds like Sherman but those are real outliers and other teams may nab them before you get a chance. I'm not saying you won't find a starter lower down, just that finding a stud down there is a lottery. You are more than likely to find a JAG.
Decent DL and OL guys can also be found in the lower rounds like DJ Reader.
So you really have to prioritize the skill positions in the high rounds as finding good ones lower down is a lottery.
Statistically, finding starters past round 5 is rare - except for RB, FB, P, and K. If you find a Tom Brady, you actually did win the lottery.
What can make the difference, is coaching. Here's hoping we have some good ones of those.
 
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Texansphan said:
No-one knows for sure but quality players must be a premium as they are good enough to start day 1 and play well. These guys will adjust and learn the playbook just like anyone else - maybe better.
Look for "blue chip" guys if you can get them first.
If a particular position is deep in a draft, you can perhaps choose one of those from a lower round.
Some positions are viewed as lesser priority like RB, FB, K, P.
You rarely see SS or FS in the top half of the first round unless they are special like Kyle Hamilton in 2021. These positions can yield a good talent in a lower round like Justin Reid.
If your talent scouts are very good, you can find the odd gem from the skill positions in the lower rounds like Sherman but those are real outliers and other teams may nab them before you get a chance. I'm not saying you won't find a starter lower down, just that finding a stud down there is a lottery. You are more than likely to find a JAG.
Decent DL and OL guys can also be found in the lower rounds like DJ Reader.
So you really have to prioritize the skill positions in the high rounds as finding good ones lower down is a lottery.
Statistically, finding starters past round 5 is rare - except for RB, FB, P, and K. If you find a Tom Brady, you actually did win the lottery.
What can make the difference, is coaching. Here's hoping we have some good ones of those.
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Why did you quote me?
 
Lucky said:
I wouldn't put RB in the same category as FB, K, or P. I think RB is more important than LB, S, C, TE, or OG.
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Personally, so do I - you have seen me standing on the table for a strong ground game!
Psst, you need good Guards to open the ground game and help protect the QB.
 
Texansphan said:
Personally, so do I - you have seen me standing on the table for a strong ground game!
Psst, you need good Guards to open the ground game and help protect the QB.
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But you can get OGs, later. Often OTs than can't quite cut it on the outside.
 
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