This could be a very low-scoring game. The
Texansonly have two main weapons for
C.J. Stroud — RB
Joe Mixonand WR
Nico Collins — and I could see Houston coming out with a run-heavy attack. The Texans offense hasn’t been efficient all season, so that might make sense.
Houston has tilted a little too far toward a pass-heavy approach on early downs, even after it lost
Stefon Diggsand
Tank Dell. The offensive line has allowed too much pressure; I’d say that’s why a run-heavy attack could make sense.
The
Chargers defense has also been shakier against the run this season. Los Angeles usually likes to sit back in coverage — more than most teams — and avoid getting beaten by big plays. Houston could have success running the ball and in turn have more time of possession than usual.
Also, without Diggs or Dell, Collins’ explosiveness hasn’t been there. He’s averaging less than 10 yards per reception without those two on the field this season. That leans right into the Chargers’ ability to avoid conceding big plays.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans will be without their two starting safeties, which is very important. Jimmie Ward and
Jalen Pitre have been key for them this season and move around the defense a lot.
Houston has been good against play action this season, and the Chargers implement that a lot in their offense.
Justin Herbert is averaging 3.4 more yards per pass attempt with play action than without it — the Texans defense ranked first in
success rateagainst play action during the regular season.
Herbert also has thrived when blitzed this season. He’s averaging 7.2 yards per attempt when the opposition doesn’t blitz and 8.7 when they do. Well, the Texans don’t need to blitz to get pressure with a 27.3% non-blitz pressure rate, which is seventh in the NFL.
The Texans also have been stout against the run, which is the hallmark of the Chargers offense. Houston has a top-three run defense in
adjusted line yards allowed and is in the top four in yards allowed per game against running backs. Overall, this matchup suits the Texans defense very well.
Overall, this matchup is a good one for both defenses